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00:00How have the parties been manoeuvring then, ahead of that crucial run-off on Sunday?
00:06You know Tom, the candidates had until 6pm last night to register for the run-off,
00:11and as you were mentioning, in fact, more than 220 candidates,
00:16according to the latest count from Le Monde, we'll get the final result later today,
00:21are pulling out of the race, meaning those who came in third position are now out of the race.
00:27That means the National Rally is now in duels,
00:30facing either a left-wing candidate or a Macron candidate in a lot of the constituencies.
00:35There are less than 100 three-way contests left,
00:40and technically that decreases the chances of the National Rally getting a not-right majority.
00:49Still, it is still a possibility.
00:51Of course, one poll is showing that the National Rally would get between 225 and 262 seats,
00:58so just shy of a majority.
01:00Remember before the first round, Jordan Bardella, the National Rally president,
01:04was actually saying, if I don't get an absolute majority, I will refuse the role of Prime Minister.
01:10Now Marine Le Pen is actually saying that they could still take the job
01:14if there are just a few lawmakers away, so we'll have to watch that really carefully.
01:18If there are just 15 or 20 lawmakers away from a majority,
01:22they might try and grab a few of them, for example, from the Republicans.
01:28OK, so that message around the Prime Minister and the majority
01:30has been moderated somewhat from the National Rally.
01:32Look, you touched on part of this, Caroline.
01:34What are the expectations?
01:36What are our best predictions that are coming through
01:38in terms of how this could line up on Sunday?
01:41I mean, obviously, an absolute majority is still a possibility.
01:45The only other alternative really is a hung parliament,
01:48because clearly we're not going to get a majority for Macron,
01:51and we're not going to get a majority for the left wing.
01:54So a hung parliament, and some analysts are actually saying that
01:58a technocratic government could be possible with some personality
02:02outside of politics, outside of parliament coming back,
02:05such as the former WTO director Pascal Lamy,
02:09even the current Bank of France governor, Villeroy de Gallo,
02:13has been named, or the current ECB president, Christine Lagarde,
02:17who is not totally out of the French scene,
02:20even though some actually do not agree with that scenario.
02:24Have a listen.
02:28I think that a technocratic government is not in the French tradition at all.
02:33It might be a solution in other countries,
02:37namely Italy.
02:38What I would expect, in case there is no absolute majority
02:43by either political sensitivity,
02:47I think that the president would probably try
02:51to have a coalition government.
02:59So if it's not a technocratic government,
03:01according to the former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet,
03:04what could we have?
03:05A political coalition with some moderates from both sides.
03:08The far left already has said they will not join a coalition
03:12unless Macron abandons his pension reform,
03:15which is something that, of course, he is very unlikely to do.
03:19So getting some moderates from both sides,
03:21and in that case, the possibility of a moderate centre-left face
03:25as prime minister.
03:27For example, the former president, François Hollande,
03:30who is also running as MP,
03:32and there are some other figures like former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve,
03:36also socialist, and some socialist MPs like Valérie Rabault,
03:39who has said that she is ready to also take the prime minister role.
03:45But of course, a lot of unpredictability for this runoff on Sunday,
03:50so it must still be a little premature
03:52to see what exactly is going to come out of this.