Astros vs. Blue Jays: Analyzing Key Matchup Trends
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00:00The Blue Jays even up the first two games of this set yesterday despite the Astros trying
00:09to rally.
00:10Houston, though, still victorious in 10 of its last 12.
00:13The Blue Jays still struggling.
00:15A virtual pick-em tonight in the six between the Astros and the Blue Jays.
00:20Who gets the dub?
00:21And it probably should be a relative pick-em here.
00:24Let me explain what's so tough sometimes when you're handicapping these situations.
00:28You take a look at Yusei Kikuchi and say, well, what term would mean the most tonight
00:32that you want to look at?
00:33Well, how does he do at home?
00:3452 and two-thirds innings pitched at home this year, Ben.
00:37He's got a 430 ERA, which isn't great, but one of the better x-fifths on the card today
00:41at 3.18.
00:42It's OK.
00:43He's comfortable pitching at home.
00:44And a lot of Major League Baseball pitchers would rather pitch at home than on the road.
00:47But if you take a look at his last 30 days and go off that non-analytical approach and
00:51start to take a look at what's happened on the field, ISO power numbers weighted on base
00:54percentages here, he's a 222 ISO and a 371 weighted on base percentage.
00:59And from a player who typically is a left-handed pitcher should be able to dominate left-handed
01:03batters.
01:04He can't get any of those guys out and is still struggling also with right-handed batters.
01:08Then you take a look at that Astros lineup.
01:10And let's just take a look at the first five guys based on left-handed pitching over the
01:14past 30 days.
01:15And we use weighted on base percentage, 646 Raltuve, Bregman 375, Alvarez 507, Diaz 313,
01:23and then Jake Meyers at a 397.
01:25So it's what have you done for me lately might carry the day because Kikuchi isn't a named
01:30pitcher per se, but he has pitched better at home and Renaud Blanc on the other side
01:34hasn't been fantastic.
01:35And as these road starts either, I might be looking at more of a total in this spot because
01:39I love the way Raltuve, Bregman present themselves.
01:42Your RBI shots probably coming from those three guys at the top here.
01:46I like the way the bats are coming around for Houston.
01:48I think we get a total to the over as opposed to that pick them side for me.