• il y a 3 mois
Elecciones Francia 2024

France recently went to the polls for the second round of the General Assembly elections, a critical event featuring key political figures like President Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The results were unexpected without a clear majority. This video looks at what this means for France and what is likely to happen next.

Category

🗞
News
Transcription
00:00The French General Assembly election results for the second round are finally in and they
00:05are super unexpected.
00:06Le Pen's national rally did not win, nor did Macron's Ensemble.
00:11Instead the left-wing coalition emerged victorious, securing a plurality of seats.
00:16This surprising outcome marks a significant shift in the French political landscape and
00:21bears all kinds of consequences.
00:23Bear in mind though that these are not presidential elections, but parliamentary, meaning that
00:28Macron will stay until 2027 as planned.
00:31But before we dive into the final results and what they mean, let's do a super quick
00:36recap of how French General Assembly elections work.
00:39In France there are 577 constituencies and in each constituency one representative is
00:45elected to represent their constituency and party in the National Assembly.
00:50This means there are 577 seats in total and 289 seats are required for a majority.
00:57The election process involves a two-round system.
01:00In the first round, which took place last week on June the 30th, citizens voted for
01:04candidates and their respective parties in their constituency.
01:08There are two possible outcomes in the first round.
01:10Either a single candidate receives 50% or more of the vote, or none of the candidates
01:15reach this threshold.
01:17If a candidate receives 50% or more, they automatically become a member of the National
01:21Assembly, a result known as an absolute majority vote.
01:25In this case, there will be no second round.
01:28If no candidate achieves 50%, which is much more common, a second round is held on the
01:337th of July, where the top candidates face off.
01:36This example on the right illustrates what actually happened in this constituency last
01:41night.
01:42Three candidates qualified for the second round, however, one candidate withdrew their
01:46candidacy before the runoff.
01:48Consequently, the remaining two candidates competed, with one ultimately winning the
01:53seat.
01:54According to the first-round results from last week, only 76 out of the 577 constituencies
01:59had a single party winning by over 50%, thus determining the outcome in one round.
02:05The remaining constituencies required a second round to decide the winners.
02:09So finally, what are the results?
02:11In the first round, the following seats were allocated.
02:14Le Pen's right-wing populist National Rally and their allies, 38 seats.
02:19The broad left-wing alliance New Popular Front, also called NFP, 32 seats.
02:24Macron's centrist Ensemble, only 2 seats.
02:27And the right-wing Republicans, only 1 seat.
02:31Last week, it really seemed as though Le Pen was poised to take France by storm.
02:35However, what happened in round 2 last night?
02:38At the time of recording, the Republicans won an additional 44 seats, the National Rally
02:43won 105 seats, Macron's Ensemble won a surprising 166 seats and the New Popular Front won an
02:50additional 150 seats.
02:53Now if we add the first and second-round results, we get the following.
02:57And here it's clear.
02:58The left-wing alliance emerges as the clear winner and Macron in second place, which was
03:03rather unexpected.
03:05However, 289 seats are needed for a majority.
03:09And even the New Popular Front is not even close to meeting that target as they would
03:13need to have an additional 107 seats.
03:16This was unexpected, as polls before the election showed a National Rally in first place.
03:21But they ended up in third!
03:22The National Rally's party president, Jordan Bardella, slammed what he called the unnatural
03:28alliance between Macron and the leftists, to stop by all means National Rally's most
03:33important surge of its history.
03:35What he means is that if a National Rally candidate advanced to the second round along
03:39with two other candidates, the centrist and left-wing parties have strategically withdrawn
03:44their candidates in third place.
03:46This move was aimed at consolidating votes against the far-right candidate, thereby increasing
03:51the chances of defeating the National Rally candidate in the second round.
03:56They did this in over 200 constituencies.
03:59And let's be honest, it worked.
04:01But what does this mean though?
04:02At EU Made Simple, we see three ways forward.
04:05But before we delve into the details, have you ever wondered about your own family's
04:10past?
04:11This brings me to today's sponsor, MyHeritage, a true game-changer.
04:15I started by simply entering information about my parents and grandparents.
04:19And whoop!
04:20There it was.
04:21I discovered my great-grandparents and many more generations further back.
04:25The process was so easy, even with little family information to start with, as MyHeritage
04:30has over 19 billion historical records to work with.
04:33I also stumbled upon some astonishing facts.
04:36I always thought my family was entirely European, but guess what?
04:40I found out that I have ancestors who have roots in Turkey and Indonesia.
04:45Looks like the Dutch colonial past in Indonesia wasn't just a chapter in the history books,
04:49but a part of my own family's story.
04:52Who knew?
04:53And check this out.
04:54I uploaded this old family photo to MyHeritage.
04:57Their tools let me repair, colorize, enhance, and even animate it.
05:01It's like bringing my family's history into the present.
05:04And here's something exciting.
05:05You can sign up for a 14-day trial to explore the vast resources of MyHeritage.
05:10So start your journey into your family's past today.
05:13Find the link in the description.
05:15So back to France.
05:17What do these results actually mean?
05:19Who will form a government?
05:20And who will be the prime minister?
05:22Well, as said, we see three ways forward.
05:24The first option is a coalition of moderates.
05:28Before the election, Macron and his allies floated the idea of building a broad coalition,
05:33including moderate lawmakers from both the left and the right, to counter the far-right
05:37influence.
05:38For example, Macron could try and bring together Ensemble, the Socialist Party, Greens, and
05:44some of the Republicans.
05:46However, given the highly polarized political landscape, forming such a coalition is difficult
05:52and could lead to a paralyzed legislature.
05:54Plus, Melenchon from the far-left France Unbowed has already stated in a victory speech that
06:00the NFP is not interested in a coalition with Macron's centrists or the right-wing Republicans.
06:06However, maybe some of the other parties within this coalition can be swayed.
06:10The second option is a NFP minority government.
06:14Given the new popular front's large share of seats, Macron may be forced to appoint
06:18one of their leaders as prime minister.
06:20But this already presents the very first problem.
06:23Who?
06:24So far, the coalition has not been able to put forward a person who could be the prime
06:28minister.
06:29The third option is a blocked parliament.
06:31With three large groups unable to agree, we could find ourselves with a blocked parliament,
06:36where any attempt at government faces a motion of no confidence.
06:40In other words, a majority disagrees and votes against it.
06:44French institutions would be paralyzed and no laws could be passed.
06:48This could be particularly difficult for civil servants if it results in the budget never
06:53being voted on.
06:54It is possible that this situation could even continue until the 2027 presidential elections.
07:00To get out of this impasse is the appointment of a technocrat government, comprising of
07:05ministers with no party affiliation, similar to the government led by Mario Draghi in Italy
07:10from 2021 to 2022.
07:13This approach aims to manage the country impartially and maintain stability until a more permanent
07:18solution is found.
07:19However, it is unlikely that a majority can be found for this solution.
07:24In more extreme cases, we could see constitutional reform or even an early presidential election,
07:29but these seem very unlikely.
07:31But we will address them in future videos if they become an option.
07:35French viewers and others, we would love to hear from you.
07:39Thank you to our contributor and thank you so much for watching.
07:42And remember to check out MyHeritage.
07:44Start your 14-day trial to journey into your family's past today.
07:48Find the link in the description.
07:49And if you want more election explainers, check out the UK election results here and
07:54its impact on the EU.
07:55Or check out the EU election results from last month here.
07:59Don't forget to like the video and subscribe to our channel and stay tuned for more videos
08:03like this.
08:04Until next time.

Recommandations