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00:00Well, let's analyze it all for you now. With me here on set is Europe correspondent and columnist for Blick, Richard Worley, and our own
00:06international affairs editor, Douglas Herbert. Richard, let's start with you. I've done the same as I did last week.
00:11I had a bit of a look at the Blick website, had a look at what you've been writing.
00:17You say France's far-right spoiled an unwinnable election.
00:22The far-right seemed on the verge of coming to power. In the space of a week, everything turned upside down.
00:28Well, that's very true. If you remember the conversation we had one week ago,
00:33it seemed that the National Rally was in position to get a majority, not absolute,
00:38but therefore a majority, and to govern the country. What happened in one week?
00:42Well, two main things. On the one hand, you have this rally against the National Rally, so all voters
00:50from the left to the traditional right decided to vote against the candidate of the RN whenever possible.
00:56And that was a big surprise. We didn't know how efficient it would be.
01:01And secondly, a failure from the National Rally itself.
01:04The party had one week to convince and to show it was able to govern France.
01:10It did not manage to do so. A number of rumors, pitches, videos emerged on the candidates of the RN.
01:17Many of them looked like amateurs, not ready to be in power.
01:21And I think that's the image they gave to the French people,
01:24that they were not ready as a serious party to govern this country now.
01:28So if you combine the two, the anti-RN kind of reflex attitude,
01:34plus the failure of the RN to convince, then you have the result of today.
01:38Doug, do you agree with that? It wasn't just people voting against the far right,
01:42but also people looking at the candidates, looking at the programme and saying,
01:46I don't want this actually.
01:47Yeah, I think a lot of people who watched, you know, the series of debates that you had
01:52with the far right's president, Jordan Bardella, on set,
01:57they had a lot of second thoughts when they actually heard what his policies were,
02:00or rather heard his lack of response to, well, how are you actually concretely going to do these things?
02:06There were a lot of, on the domestic front, there were a lot of, you know,
02:08hard and pointed questions about, you know, your promises,
02:12promises, which his opponents called demagogic promises.
02:14You know, they sound great. Who wouldn't want to promise these things?
02:17Where are you going to get the money to do it?
02:18Where are you going to get the money to, you know, cut everyone's taxes,
02:21raise the minimum wage, basically, you know, nirvana for all, you know, heaven, paradise on earth.
02:28So I think they definitely saw a disconnect, if you will,
02:31between what the national front projected itself as doing when and if it came to power,
02:37and what the reality, the hard reality might be.
02:39But I also thought there was, a lot of stuff went viral on social media throughout this week,
02:44incidents of racism, of xenophobia, anti-Semitism.
02:48I think this underscored for a part of the electorate that still needed convincing,
02:53that the national front was, the national rally was now this mainstream, normal party,
02:58just like any others, you know, nothing to see here, carry on.
03:01We're just like anyone else. Stop demonizing us. Stop vilifying us.
03:05They actually saw, you know what, there's actually a reason we're vilifying you.
03:09And it's this, that, and the other thing.
03:10And I think this, all of it sort of added up to this, for those wavering voters,
03:15you know, you could say the same for the US right now.
03:16It's all independents and wavering types of swing voters.
03:20For those type of people who are maybe sitting on the fence,
03:23didn't quite know how they were going to vote, even after, you know,
03:27many candidates dropped out of these three-party races, the so-called tactical voting.
03:31Even those who are still sitting on the fence,
03:33I think a lot of them may have been swung by what really came across as what can only be called,
03:38objectively and factually, a racist, xenophobic,
03:42misogynist agenda platform from the National Front.
03:46Well, let's talk about some of those parties now and what it means for them.
03:49We're going to start off talking about the left.
03:51In fact, one of the left's key figures, Manuel Bompa,
03:53has been talking on French radio in the last hour or so.
03:56Let's hear what he had to say.
04:00The largest political group in the National Assembly should govern.
04:03So the president has the duty to invite a prime minister from the New Popular Front
04:08to form a government.
04:11From the France office?
04:13We'll discuss that.
04:15I don't want to get into everything now.
04:17The Republican convention, as it has always worked,
04:20is the president, after the dissolution of Parliament and an election,
04:26turns to the party of the coalition that has the most members of Parliament.
04:38There's going to be a lot of pressure now, isn't there,
04:43on Emmanuel Macron to turn to the left.
04:45They are the ones who got more votes, the biggest bloc.
04:49A lot of pressure, but a bit of, I would say, momentum for Emmanuel Macron.
04:56As you know, he's leaving on Tuesday for the US, for the NATO summit.
05:01So the worst situation for him, clearly,
05:03would have been a majority for the national rally,
05:05because he would have been against the wall
05:08with a party who is officially against NATO, against Ukraine,
05:12against the alliance with the United States.
05:15Now he has a bit of a reply.
05:17He can wait for a while.
05:19Today, Gabriel Attal will come to the Elysee Palace,
05:22will render his resignation, he has announced yesterday,
05:25in a speech that looked very presidential, by the way.
05:29And Emmanuel Macron has two possibilities.
05:31Either he decides to nominate, as of now,
05:34someone to try to form a coalition,
05:37and that person needs to come from the victorious side,
05:41meaning from the left.
05:42Or he can wait and see for a while, go to the US,
05:46keep Attal in place to run, I would say, normal affairs,
05:49current affairs, and look at the situation
05:52after the National Assembly opens on the 18th of July,
05:56and maybe even wait a bit longer
05:59until the beginning of the Olympic Games.
06:02You have one details.
06:03The French ministers, those who are in place now,
06:06who have been elected MPs, for example,
06:09Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of Interior,
06:11they have one month to decide
06:13whether they remain as member of government
06:16or go back to the National Assembly.
06:18So that month may be used by Emmanuel Macron
06:21as a moment to calm down, to cool down.
06:25And for him, who likes the Jupiterian kind of attitude,
06:28I think he'll have to backtrack to wait
06:32see how it goes, but eventually give the hand
06:37to someone from the left to form a coalition
06:39and remain what the constitution say,
06:42the referee, the guardian of the institutions.
06:45Whatever he does, he's going to be criticized though,
06:47isn't he, Doug?
06:47I mean, the left-wing voters who voted for that left bloc
06:49are desperately going to want to see their man or woman
06:53having that influence there.
06:54At the same time, he could do something else.
06:55He could just appoint some kind of technocrat government.
06:58Caretaker prime minister,
06:59and that could even be the more likely option
07:02in the near term, at least.
07:03Look, there is no love lost, as we have said time and again,
07:06between the left, the Nouveau Front Populaire,
07:10this new left-wing alliance of parties,
07:12and Macron and the centrists.
07:13You know, for people on the outside looking in and saying,
07:15well, if this were Germany or Italy,
07:16wouldn't the centrist presidential bloc
07:19and the NFP, this left-wing alliance,
07:21wouldn't they all just come together now
07:23in an absolute majority in a coalition
07:26that could govern France, that can make it?
07:28And the easy answer to that is no.
07:30No, for two reasons.
07:31One, because their policies are sharply at odds
07:34on so many things from, you know,
07:36from some of the reforms
07:38that Macron has tried to push through,
07:39you know, retirement reforms,
07:41even immigration reforms, minimum wage issues,
07:44all of this, they sharply are divided.
07:47But also because France itself,
07:49and yeah, maybe I'll be eating my shoe next week
07:52because I'm totally wrong.
07:53France doesn't have this culture of coalition building
07:56and culture of compromise, for better or for worse.
07:58The Fifth Republic was designed expressly
08:01not to encourage or to induce coalition building.
08:04It was encouraged to have parties
08:06that were able to govern
08:07with either an absolute majority
08:08or a relative majority,
08:09as Macron's bloc has been doing
08:12for the past couple of years now.
08:14So the reality is that
08:17it's going to remain pretty ungovernable.
08:19Caretaker government might be the best possible scenario.
08:22If you ask me whether I see a centrist coalition
08:25coming together, not really.
08:26And if it were to happen,
08:27it would have to be a coalition
08:29coming from the left, at least,
08:31stripped of some of its more controversial elements,
08:36namely the Jean-Luc Mélenchon bloc France unbowed.
08:40I don't see them being part
08:41of any sort of centrist coalition,
08:42namely because Mélenchon himself
08:44said he'll have no part of that.
08:46It's his policies or nothing.
08:47Well, as Richard said,
08:48It's tough.
08:49Yeah, exactly.
08:50That's very true.
08:51As Richard said, Gabriel Attal,
08:52the French prime minister,
08:53did say that he will tender his resignation today.
08:55It remains unclear, though,
08:57whether the president will accept it,
08:59Let's hear exactly, though,
09:00what he did have to say.
09:05In line with the Republic's traditions
09:07and with my own principles,
09:08I will hand in my resignation
09:10to the president of the Republic in the morning.
09:13In light of tonight's results,
09:14with no clear majority,
09:16I know that many French people
09:17are feeling uncertain about our future.
09:20Our country has found itself
09:21in a political situation like never before
09:24and is preparing to welcome people
09:25from across the world in just a few weeks' time.
09:29I will continue my duties as long as necessary.
09:33It could not be any different
09:35in such a crucial moment.
09:40Gabriel Attal there.
09:41It is, I mean,
09:42it's a big moment for France, isn't it?
09:43We've had these snap elections,
09:45Richard.
09:45We've got the Olympics coming up over the next,
09:48I mean, the thing with the Olympics
09:50is, of course,
09:50it's not just the two and a half weeks
09:53of the Olympics,
09:54it's the Paralympics as well.
09:56It kind of feels like everything
09:57might just be put on pause
09:59until mid-September, do you think?
10:01It's a possibility.
10:02It will be difficult,
10:04I believe,
10:05politically for Emmanuel Macron
10:07to convince all political parties
10:09that they have to wait until September
10:12and until the end of the Olympic
10:14and Paralympic Games.
10:15But it is possible.
10:17It depends on the word that he will use.
10:19If he asks for a certain kind of truce,
10:22Olympic truce,
10:23that's the word he used in the past,
10:25that may be possible.
10:26Everybody needs calm at the moment in France.
10:29Emmanuel Macron has chosen
10:30the most hectic scenario
10:33by deciding this snap election.
10:35Everybody was in a sprint
10:37for the last three weeks.
10:38Maybe people may want
10:40and may be happy to rest,
10:41especially in summertime.
10:43Now, the big question that remains ahead,
10:46if he forms a caretaker government,
10:48is what does it mean?
10:50So there are two options.
10:51Either he maintains Gabriel Attal
10:54and Gabriel Attal is there
10:55just to officially represent the government,
10:59but doing nothing until a successor is nominated.
11:02Second option is already to choose someone else,
11:05not Gabriel Attal,
11:06technical person,
11:07respected personality,
11:09who will either keep this government
11:11or form a new government
11:12with, let's say,
11:14a restricted number of ministers,
11:16maybe 10 or 12,
11:17and giving them a precise idea
11:19of the timetable.
11:21That's the most important thing.
11:22So let's see.
11:23At the moment,
11:24it's very clear that Emmanuel Macron
11:25was in a rush
11:26because he thought that the political rush
11:29would help him to explode the right
11:31and explode the left.
11:33He was thinking that this rush
11:35would bring people together
11:36in his central block.
11:38He failed.
11:38It's not the case.
11:40Now, after the sprint,
11:42maybe he has to look for the marathon.
11:44We'll see.
11:44Well, at the headquarters
11:45of the far-right national rally,
11:47the celebratory mood
11:48before the results confirm,
11:50soon turning to disbelief
11:52when those first predicted results appeared.
11:54For days, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
11:56had confidently predicted
11:57that their party would triumph
11:58with an outright majority.
12:00Instead, though,
12:00pushed into third by centrist
12:02and left-wing coalition blocs.
12:04The national rally, though,
12:05let's not forget,
12:05it is still the largest party in Parliament,
12:08pushing further and further, then,
12:09into mainstream politics.
12:14The alliance of dishonor
12:16and electoral arrangements
12:17made by Emmanuel Macron
12:19and Gabriel Attal,
12:20together with extreme left parties,
12:25have deprived the French people
12:26of political reforms
12:27that they had largely asked for,
12:30by putting us first
12:31in the European elections
12:32and in last week's first round,
12:34with almost 34% of ballots in our favour.
12:39So, Doug, I mean,
12:40it's a difficult moment, isn't it,
12:41for the far-right,
12:42because, of course,
12:43over the last 15 years or so,
12:46there have been several elections
12:47where they've sort of started breaking through.
12:49This was their big chance, wasn't it?
12:52Right now, the far-right can, you know,
12:55whine and groan and whatever
12:57about this tactical voting pact,
12:59as they see it,
13:00the dishonourable pact,
13:04this unnatural pact, if you will.
13:05But the reality is,
13:06at the end of the day,
13:07whether you like tactical voting or not,
13:10that is the system,
13:11and it essentially amounts to
13:12the French have said no,
13:14for now,
13:15to the far-right.
13:16Simple as that.
13:16The French have said no to the far-right.
13:18They have to deal with that.
13:19They can spin it however they want,
13:20and they're going to spin it.
13:21But I'll tell you one thing.
13:22They're down, but they're not out, okay?
13:24Because the reality is,
13:25yeah, they've still gained numbers
13:27from the 88 that they had
13:28in the outgoing parliament.
13:30They're going to be up, you know,
13:31not double their numbers,
13:32but nearly double their numbers.
13:33So it is a rising tide.
13:34Marine Le Pen, her said, said,
13:36the tide continues to rise.
13:38Our victory is merely postponed.
13:41What does she mean by that?
13:42She means right now,
13:43as she sees it,
13:44as Bardella sees it,
13:45that there are millions and millions of,
13:48quote, disenfranchised French voices,
13:50voices that were not allowed to be heard
13:53because of this unnatural, unholy alliance
13:56of parties that hate each other,
13:58this tactical voting that prevented them,
14:00that blocked them from coming to power.
14:03Unfair, basically.
14:03They're crying foul, essentially.
14:06And they are going to now harness
14:08that discontent,
14:10that rage, if you will, against this,
14:13and they're going to make their followers
14:14ever more bitter.
14:15They're basically waiting
14:17for the three years from now, 2027.
14:19Yeah, Macron will be president most likely
14:21till 2027.
14:22The what comes next is still
14:24as much as ever a question.
14:27Are Marine Le Pen's chances diminished?
14:29She, you know, has made explicit
14:30she's going to run for president in 2027.
14:32Does she have less of a chance today
14:34because the far right did not emerge victorious
14:37in these legislative elections?
14:38The debate's going to be out on that,
14:40but you can make the case
14:42that the far right is going to find a way
14:44to harness its voters' discontent
14:48and anger at what happened in these elections,
14:51harness it in order to advance themselves
14:53going forward.
14:54They already have their eyes
14:56on that next horizon,
14:57that next political horizon,
14:58which is the presidential elections
15:00three years down the road.
15:01A lot to play for, Doug.
15:02Thanks very much.
15:03Well, that election, of course,
15:04also extremely closely watched
15:06in Europe, of course.
15:07Fears that if the far right had won in France,
15:09it would have fragilised the European project,
15:11even though the national rally
15:13does not call for France to pull out of Europe.
15:15Let's not forget, of course.
15:16But we're going to cross now to Brussels
15:17to talk to our correspondent
15:18who joins us from there, Dave Keating.
15:20Dave, no one really had expected these results.
15:24I suspect a lot of relief there.
15:29There is palpable relief here in Brussels,
15:31but it's tinged with some anxiety
15:34about what a hung parliament
15:36is going to mean for France.
15:37The big question people are asking here is,
15:39is France now ungovernable?
15:41Of course, the worst case scenario
15:43for the EU was avoided.
15:45That would have been a majority
15:47for Marine Le Pen's national rally,
15:50setting up a period of confrontation
15:52between Brussels and Paris.
15:54Of course, the French parliament
15:56needs to implement the EU laws
15:58that are passed here.
15:59If the French parliament started
16:01deciding not to do that,
16:03it could have set up a real period of crisis.
16:06Because France is such a core EU country,
16:09the union can't really afford
16:11a huge disagreement with the French parliament.
16:14So the people here are worried
16:16about what comes next in terms of
16:19any type of period of chaos,
16:21or just a period where France
16:22just can't pass any legislation.
16:24But there's another scenario
16:25they're worried about as well,
16:27and that is the far-left party
16:29of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, France unbowed.
16:32In many ways, you could say
16:33that they are as antagonistic
16:35toward the EU as Le Pen's national rally.
16:38And it did make some people here
16:40a little nervous last night
16:41when Jean-Luc Mélenchon
16:42was the first one to speak
16:44on behalf of that left-wing alliance.
16:47They didn't have any particularly
16:48great electoral victory.
16:49I think their seats
16:50are somewhere around the same.
16:51But the worry is he,
16:52as possibly the most visible face
16:55of that alliance,
16:55could grab the momentum here,
16:57and that you end up with a far-left driven
17:00or far-left-led government even.
17:03So that's what people are watching here for sure.
17:07And in terms of what happens to Macron,
17:09of course, either way,
17:10he was always going to remain
17:11French president.
17:12He'd be the one in charge of foreign policy
17:14coming here to the European Council summits.
17:16But is he now a lame duck
17:19dealing with a Congress,
17:20with a parliament rather,
17:21that is ungovernable
17:24and then unable to pass any legislation
17:27that he would need passed?
17:29And at a time when this continent
17:30is really lacking leadership,
17:33that's a very depressing thought
17:35for a lot of people here.
17:37Dave, thanks very much.
17:38Dave Keating joining us there from Brussels.
17:41So Richard, as Dave was saying,
17:42there's a lot of relief in Brussels,
17:44but also a lot of nerves as well.
17:47Well, relief, it's absolutely understandable.
17:50Keep in mind that Mr Victor Orbán
17:52is at the moment,
17:54is assuming the rotating presidency of the EU,
17:56is taking some diplomatic initiative,
17:58going to Russia, going to China,
18:00without kind of much coordination
18:02with the other 26 members of the EU.
18:05So what it would have been
18:06if today the national rally
18:07was in position to govern France?
18:09Mr Macron would have been sidelined
18:11because Mr Bardella
18:12would probably have picked up the phone
18:14and called Mr Orbán
18:15and they would have started to talk together.
18:17So this won't be the case.
18:18So I understand there is a relief.
18:20Now, is there frustration
18:22at what France will be in the coming weeks?
18:24I don't think so that much
18:26because at least those players,
18:28even Mr Mélenchon, they are well known.
18:31Mélenchon is an old politician,
18:33veteran politician,
18:35is indeed rejected by a number of people,
18:38is kind of making leaders in Europe afraid,
18:42is very anti-German.
18:43But I would not rate Mélenchon
18:46as the same danger for Europe as Marine Le Pen.
18:49It's a different game.
18:50The left is known,
18:51the left is mostly pro-European,
18:54not ready to confront Europe.
18:57So as far as Brussels is concerned,
18:59the message from Paris today
19:00is keep calm and carry on.
19:03Douglas, do you agree with that?
19:03I mean, it's not just Europe, is it?
19:06Of course, I've been watching this
19:07incredibly closely.
19:09US, obviously, watching this closely.
19:12Ukraine is obviously in Europe,
19:13but not in the European Union.
19:15They're extremely concerned about the results.
19:18I just want to add to what Richard was saying,
19:20you know, with Europe,
19:21maybe we have it, maybe we don't.
19:22Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister,
19:24had an interesting tweet.
19:25Maybe we could bring it up,
19:27which really, in a sense, summed up that
19:30there was a headline in the French
19:31left-leaning daily Libération today,
19:33which was oof,
19:34which sort of means phew, phew.
19:38And there it is.
19:39I have to lean in.
19:41I didn't write it down.
19:41It's in Paris enthusiasm,
19:43in Moscow disappointment,
19:45in Kiev relief,
19:46enough to be happy in Warsaw.
19:48Nicely put.
19:49Right, right.
19:49I mean, it's short.
19:50It's a short tweet,
19:51but that does sum it up
19:52because you have in there
19:53sort of an encapsulation of Europe
19:56basically saying, look,
19:57yeah, there might be some nuances
19:58and changes along the margins
20:00and in the broad contours of foreign policy,
20:02but the basic lines will hold.
20:04The support for Ukraine,
20:06perhaps the condemnation of Vladimir Putin,
20:12the transatlantic alliance,
20:14support for NATO,
20:15all of those main pillars
20:17of Europe's relationship
20:19with its U.S. ally,
20:21but also with the rest of Europe
20:23and its relationship with Ukraine,
20:25they will remain in place.
20:27I think you asked me about the United States.
20:28To be really honest right now,
20:31very few Americans,
20:33you know, even,
20:34are they're just tuning into the U.S. election right now,
20:37let alone the French election, right?
20:38If you ask them what was going on here,
20:40nine out of 10,
20:41and that might be charitable,
20:43would not really know
20:44that anything just happened here.
20:45And those who know knew maybe vaguely
20:48that the far right was coming to power or something.
20:51So this is a blip on the radar right now
20:54in the United States.
20:54Unless you are a policy wonk,
20:56foreign policy wonk in Washington circles
20:59who have been watching this,
21:00like we just heard Dave say
21:02in Brussels as well.
21:03For most Americans,
21:04what they're concerned about right now
21:06is what's gonna happen
21:07with their incumbent president.
21:09Will he or won't he stay in the race?
21:11That really is the dominant story
21:14right now in the United States.
21:15It's drowning out everything else.
21:17They're not tuning in to hear
21:19what Macron's gonna do next,
21:21for better or for worse right now.
21:23But yeah, for Europe right now,
21:24there is that sigh of relief.
21:25And I will just note also,
21:27you know, Pedro Sanchez,
21:28who is the,
21:29he also tweeted,
21:30we don't have the tweet for you,
21:31but he tweeted as well,
21:32the Spanish prime minister,
21:34essentially equating
21:36what happened in the UK last week,
21:38those elections where labor came back
21:40after 14 years in the wilderness
21:42and Tories were trounced
21:43and ousted from power.
21:44And here in France,
21:46basically showing a rejection
21:48of far right,
21:50hard right tendencies in politics
21:52and more a turn towards
21:54a more social humane policy in politics.
21:57Whether you agree with that or not,
21:58that's sort of the impression
21:59that some European leaders
22:00are taking away.
22:01If you are watching us in the US though,
22:03and you've tuned in for the results
22:04to the French election,
22:06very good to have you with us.
22:08Thanks very much.
22:09Richard, let's just sum it all up,
22:11can we?
22:12It's been a month where,
22:14you know, no one was anticipating
22:16this was going to happen.
22:17We've all of a sudden
22:17have these major, major elections,
22:19a lot of tension here in France.
22:21How do you sum it up
22:22and what do you see as the way forward?
22:25Well, I will choose one name,
22:29Gabriel Attal.
22:30That may be surprising to you,
22:31but what we forgot to say
22:33since the beginning of the conversation
22:35is the fact that Macron Kemp
22:37has fared much better than expected.
22:40The polls were giving Macron
22:42around 100 member of parliament
22:44and he's finally getting around 160.
22:47Why?
22:47Because of Gabriel Attal.
22:49We may have seen this week
22:51the emergence of Macron,
22:53true successor.
22:54We knew that Gabriel Attal
22:56was in the line
22:57because he was nominated prime minister.
22:59But the way first,
22:59he has responded to the president,
23:01clearly disagreeing
23:03on dissolving the National Assembly.
23:05Then he has withdrawn for two days
23:07and decided to stage back
23:09a counteroffensive
23:11with the presidential coalition.
23:12And he won as far as he is concerned,
23:15Gabriel Attal.
23:15He did not win the political battle,
23:17but he managed to be on the forefront.
23:19So I would say the sign of hope
23:22for the central camp is Gabriel Attal.
23:24Then the second sign of hope
23:25is there is a clear message
23:27to the left,
23:28to the social democratic left.
23:30You mentioned labor in the UK.
23:32Do your homework,
23:33try to form a coalition,
23:35accept some centrist in that coalition
23:37and a government is possible.
23:39So I see two message of hope
23:41and the fact that the national rally
23:42will not come into power
23:43means that France is refusing
23:46to close the windows,
23:47close the door and say no to Europe.
23:50That's also an interesting sign.
23:52So all of it,
23:54I would say a sign of hope,
23:55but a political blockade still
23:58because three blocs who are not yet
24:00willing to govern together
24:02or to share power.
24:03We've got a recording of that.
24:04We'll play it back to you
24:05at some point here on France 24,
24:06maybe in a few years time
24:07to see whether you're right or not.
24:09Richard, thanks very much.
24:10Richard Worley,
24:11France and Europe correspondent,
24:12columnist for Blick
24:13and Doug Herbert,
24:14international affairs editor
24:15here on France 24.