Dave Lauer joined Benzinga's Premarket Prep team to talk about how he thinks AI is overhyped and the comparison between .com stocks of the early 2000's and Nvidia's recent rally.
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00:00Dave, just going back to, I guess, the efficiencies or inefficiencies of the market.
00:06I think a lot of people would look at NVIDIA's price action of the last year and say, how
00:10efficient can the market be if you have a trillion dollar company tripling in a year?
00:17And then other people might say, that's the market being efficient because the market's
00:22pricing in future growth of the company and revenue increasing.
00:27Where would you stand on that viewpoint of just looking at, again, NVIDIA's stock price
00:34over the last year?
00:35Is this a sign of the market being efficient or do you think a sign of inefficiencies?
00:42I think it's a great question and it's a really hard one to answer.
00:47If you look at NVIDIA, and Dennis, I have had this conversation a couple of times, too.
00:50If you look at the Ford PE, it's not crazy, but it's pretty high.
00:54But it's nothing insane.
00:58How much of a difference does what we're talking about make?
01:03And I would say it makes a significant difference to individuals who are trying to buy NVIDIA
01:08through their retail brokers.
01:11And every time you buy, it's costing you more than you should.
01:17But I think what you're talking about is price discovery and you're saying, is the market
01:21efficiently finding the right price for this stock?
01:25And when you look at that chart, when I personally look at the chart, I find it hard to believe
01:30that that is not a bubble that will at some point come off.
01:34But it's a scary looking chart and it looks like a blow off top and it looks like everything
01:41you would think that you pull every comparison to the dot-com charts and you see very similar
01:48things.
01:49And I think from an AI perspective, personally, I think AI is quite overhyped and we're going
01:55to run into some real issues and already have.
01:58And it's sort of just like the shiny new thing at the moment.
02:01And it might eventually revolutionize everything.
02:04That is absolutely true.
02:05But I don't think we're there at all from a technological perspective.
02:10And so I do think that if you have a market in which liquidity is not as robust and diverse
02:18as it can be, and everyone piles into the same trade, you can end up with something
02:23like this in which the price discovery mechanism becomes kind of fundamentally broken.
02:28And then who knows where it will end up eventually once things sort of, you know, the market
02:35tends to catch up, right?
02:37And it tends to figure things out and short term it can do anything, but long term it
02:41tends to be reasonable.
02:43So, you know, I'm not optimistic about the way the market is operating today, given what
02:50I know about sort of the microstructure of it, as well as sort of what I know about AI
02:55and you know, what these companies are being valued at.
02:59But yeah, and I do, someone just said, it sounds like this guy doesn't own NVIDIA.
03:03Sure do, man.
03:04It's been great.
03:05Did you sell your NVIDIA yet?
03:06Have you sold any?
03:07I've not.
03:08He's had NVIDIA actually the whole way up.
03:12You know, and I'm thrilled that I did, but you know, I, it's hard because I tend to,
03:17it's almost like crypto.
03:18So I almost look at this like, I can look at crypto every time I've sold crypto, I've
03:23been wrong.
03:24Just don't sell.
03:25Yeah.
03:26But I bought my first Bitcoin at $2 a Bitcoin and I, of course, sold it.
03:32I thought I was early.
03:33I thought I was early at 400.