NFL Division Preview: NFC South Outlook and Predictions
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00:00Adam Kaplan is our NFL insider. He's covered the NFL for almost 30 years. You can follow
00:08him on X at Kaplan NFL, and you can see him on sports grid regularly and on coast to coast
00:13even more than that. Thank God for that. He's getting ready for his big summer tour of all
00:18the training camps around the NFL. Some of them, Adam, have already opened up shop.
00:25Yeah, the Ravens have done that. It's really interesting, Scott. Some teams are like,
00:30they'll have the veterans come in after the rookies. You want to get the rookies comfortable
00:34that they're not getting a little tight because the veterans are around. Some teams have the
00:38players report at the same time, the rookies as the veterans. It just depends on the team.
00:43But the Ravens reported, the rookies did over the weekend, and quarterbacks and players come
00:48back from injury. That's something a lot of teams do. But yeah, look, when you look at it, Scott,
00:53and you and I were talking about this off the air, it really comes down to this. If you feel
00:57like your team has had a good training camp, why would you have your players play in the preseason
01:02games? There's really no upside to it. All you really can do is get these guys hurt. Now,
01:06some coaches don't like hearing that. They think they need to get their timing down.
01:10Your Steelers, they play their starters. They play. They play in all three of them
01:15into the second half. This is just what they believe. But not every team believes in that.
01:19The Rams won't let their starters touch the field in the preseason.
01:23Well, I think that's one of the reasons why Sean McVay is considered, along in concert with Andy
01:32Reid, the two best coaches in the NFL. I see no reason at all, ever, if I were the owner or if I
01:40was the GM or a position of power, head coach, whatever, with the Pittsburgh Steelers in my
01:46lifetime, I would never let any starter that I'm paying that much money to, that I already know how
01:52good they are because I've negotiated deals with them and I'm paying them millions across the board.
01:57Every single starter, they pay millions to, and you already know how good they are. There's no,
02:03and then rookies, you already know that what the scale is, what you have to pay them. I understand
02:07why they play young kids and rookies have to learn the system and the ropes and get in all the timing
02:13you're talking about. But no veteran player that I pay millions of dollars to, to play on Sundays in
02:19the NFL for 17 weeks, would I let even touch a football field? It's the dumbest thing I've ever
02:26seen in my life. And every single year, you rue the day you did it because guys drop like flies
02:33in the preseason. And that's why you have joint practices, though your Steelers don't do them.
02:38You have inner-squad scrimmages. Now, the Steelers do that. I've been to it in La Trobe.
02:42But yeah, it's really interesting. If you look at the 30 teams, every team has a different
02:47view on whether the starters should play in the preseason, but you and I agree on this.
02:51The starters should not. That's what the practice is for. And I'm really big into these joint
02:55practices. I think those are really important. In fact, that's the trend around the National
02:58Football League. Over 20 teams are practicing with each other this summer. I don't have a
03:04problem with that. That has to be. But these games are a waste of time for star players that
03:15I already need to be healthy every Sunday. That's all that matters is Sunday in the NFL. That is all
03:21that matters. And of course, Monday, Thursday, and all the other European games and the Mexico
03:29games and the Brazil games and everything. But games that count are what matter. All right.
03:34We hit all of the divisions every week. We're doing new ones. NFC South today. Pre-training
03:41can't break down. Let's start with the Falcons. And we talked about the Falcons a while back.
03:45We can update their odds. Nine and a half is their win total. The over is minus 140. The
03:51under is plus 115. To win that division, they're minus 120. Now, this is what we talked about a
03:56couple months ago. We're going to update this. The issue that I had was not with their offense.
04:00I love this offense that Zach Robinson will be running. He comes in from Sean McVay and that
04:05staff. He's going to run a West Coast offense. Look, the offensive scheme now in the National
04:10Football League that wins is the West Coast. It's a timing-based offense. Kirk Cousins is a master
04:15at it. He played in it for a lot of his career with Minnesota. I don't worry about that. Cousins
04:20is 36, coming off the torn Achilles. It's really the defense, the lack of playmakers to me.
04:27The fact that they're a huge favorite over the Buccaneers, who are plus 300, by the way,
04:31to win the division. They've got, the odds makers have the Bucs coming in second.
04:35It should be much tighter than that. I just don't understand why they have the Falcons as a shoo-in
04:41to win that division. Now, the coaching wasn't great under Arthur Smith. I get that. Coaching
04:45should be better under Raheem Morris. Now, their defense, you could say it may take a step because
04:51Morris is going to run this defense and he's a defensive head coach. The issue there is pass
04:55rush and issues that cornerback opposite AJ Terrell. I don't think their defensive talent
04:59is that great. It's where the offense is going to have to carry them. Next up is Tampa, who was
05:06very impressive last year with Baker Mayfield, Evans. They hooked up a ton. They've already shown
05:13what they can do, but they're picking this team, the Falcons, over them. Explain that to me.
05:17Yeah, and we'll update their win total of actually eight and a half. It's not nine and a half. It's
05:20actually eight and a half. And when you look at the Buccaneers situation, Baker Mayfield's back.
05:26Mike Evans is back. Where a couple years ago, you really wondered if he finished his career as a
05:30Buc, but the Bucs wanted him to do that and he's going to do that. He signed a two-year deal with
05:33for about $21 million a year. Mayfield's back, three years, $33 million a year. So, they've got
05:38these guys back. They're going to reshuffle their offensive line. They'll have about two new starters
05:42in their offensive line. The receivers are back. Ted Enns are back. Rashad Waits, they're running back.
05:47Now, where you got issues, the Bucs. It's legit. They're at cornerback. They're not strong there
05:53at all. They're past rushers. They're very, very young. Shaq Barrett was released. So, they're
05:58getting young with past rushers. They're talented there. I could see why they might have the Falcons
06:02a smidge over them, but the Buccaneers are plus 300. That's a good number. If you believe like
06:08I do, that the Falcons should not be that huge favorite that they are. Bucs at 300 is pretty live.
06:13Well, they're obviously favoring the Falcons this year because Kirk Cousins is there. Because the
06:18Falcons, since they blew that Super Bowl, have never been the same and that's all there is to it.
06:24What about the New Orleans Saints with Mr. Carr? Yeah, and it's funny because I've been very
06:30critical of Carr's playing. Finally, Oddsmakers got wise to it. Their win total is just six and a half.
06:36The over, this tells you all you need to know, is plus 115. Clearly, nobody believes they're
06:41going to even have more than six. The under is minus 140. The win in the division is plus 350.
06:46See, I think when you look at the Saints, Derek Carr has been an underachiever. The knock on him
06:50and the coaches circles is risk averse, is a good athlete, good arm, won't make the tough throw,
06:55checks it down too much. That's why Alvin Kamara had all those catches last season. They're going
06:59to have three new starters in the offensive line. They're not great in the second. This is a very
07:04average team. But man, the win total is six and a half. That tells you all you need to know what
07:09the Oddsmakers think of the Saints. Not very much. And I mean, I would guess that Dennis
07:14Allen is on a hot seat. It's literally a barbecue before the season even starts, his seat.
07:20No question. He's my top five guys who've got a lot on the line this season. They've been very
07:24mediocre on him. They've kind of underachieved. But I don't think the roster is all that good.
07:30What's that? He's got a lot on the line. You got that right. He's got a lot on the line. He's doomed.
07:37Yeah, he's in my top. In fact, I said top five. He's top three of quarter
07:40coaches on the hot seat. Nick Suriani, by the way, Eagles head coach, probably number one.
07:45He just went from top five to top three in less than 30 seconds on the show from Kaplan.
07:50All right, let's go to the Carolina Panthers. What could be worse than what they went through
07:55last year? But they have helped Bryce Young, Dan Morgan, the new general manager. He's done that.
08:01Three new pieces at receiver. Your guy, Deontay Johnson, who comes over from the Steelers.
08:07Xavier Leguette, they traded up for him, the receiver out of South Carolina. And Jonathan
08:12Brooks, the second round running back out of University of Texas, who I'm told should be
08:17ready early on. He's come back from the ACL surgery. I'm told it was a clean ACL repair.
08:22He should be available early on in trade camp. And if that happens, that's a good thing.
08:25It has not worked out with Miles Sanders at running back. Defensively, man, they need to get
08:31help at corner opposite J.C. Horn. That does worry me. Remember, they traded Brian Burns.
08:36Their pass rush is a problem. The win total is five and a half. The over is minus 115.
08:42I think this is a fair one at minus 115 because they're going to be somewhere around five or six.
08:48But they had to help Bryce Young, and they've done that. But overall, this team's still
08:53in a total rebuild. And by the way, they will move their training camp that used to be, and I've been
08:58there a couple of times, used to be at Wofford College in Spartanburg, South Carolina. They're
09:02moving it to Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium.