Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview
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00:00Now we go to Atlanta. The Braves playing host to the St. Louis Cardinals. Atlanta a slight
00:08favorite at home with Spencer Schwellenbach on the bump. Minus 120, a total of seven and a half
00:14here. Atlanta the most unders at the break. The only team with more than a 60% under percentage
00:20in all of baseball in the opening half. 62.2 to be exact. What do you expect tonight in the ATL
00:27between the Cardinals and the Braves? I think Schwellenbach has certainly turned that corner
00:31of, oh my goodness, I'm in Major League Baseball. I'm struggling early on. I better turn it around.
00:34He's been a decent pitcher as of late. And as of late means, you know, over the past two to three
00:38weeks. So he hasn't been up in the major leagues all that long. But if we're taking a look at the
00:42approach, it's the old school versus the new school. The reason I bring that is not Sonny
00:46Gray versus Schwellenbach. It's actually the statistics that you look at and what you're
00:50going to trust in this game. Hear me out on this. Sonny Gray on this season, if we take a look at,
00:55forget about his splits, home and away, he's actually the third pitcher on the card today
00:58with an XFIP minus of 73 over the past 60 days and a 3.55 ERA mixed in with an XFIP of 2.92.
01:06That is phenomenal. That is as good as it gets. Now, let's take a look here at what we say on
01:11the road sweeps. He's number two here. If we're looking overall, that's 40 and two thirds innings
01:16pitched here, which is a pretty good amount of time. His ERA, Ben, 5.09. That's horrendous.
01:22His XFIP, 2.97. So if you're just looking at Sonny Gray's numbers on the road and say he's
01:27got a 5 ERA, just sign me up on the Braves. You need to be looking into those numbers a little
01:32bit deeply because a lot of times you're getting a little bit unlucky in that situation when he's
01:36been a quality pitcher over the past 60 days and his XFIP number is extremely low. But also,
01:40doesn't that play into the Atlanta Braves and what they want to do? Hey, pitcher on the good
01:43pitcher on the other side, Schwellenbach comes in post all-star break, pitchers arrested here.
01:47It probably lends to a recipe of more of an under, but having said that,
01:52Atlanta's at home. All they do is basically win and win in closed games. I do think that
01:56is a cheap price, even though the better pitcher is on Sonny Gray's side. Lean number one in this
02:00game to the under. Lean number two is you're getting the Braves at home at a pretty cheap
02:04price. Why don't we just roll that direction?