IHSG ditutup terkoreksi 0,36% di 7.294,5 di Jum,at pekan lalu. IHSG melemah 0,45% mengakhiri penguatan selama empat pekan beruntun. Saham BREN -7,67% menjadi top laggards IHSG sepekan. Pergerakan IHSG dipengaruhi ekspektasi pemangasan suku bunga the fed, perlambatan ekonomi China. Di dalam negeri investor nantikan rilis kinerja kuartal II 2024. Dari global, Pasar saham Wall Street lanjutkan pelemahan, dampak kekacauan terkait dengan gangguan teknis global. Di sisi lain, Presiden AS, Joe Biden, membatalkan upaya untuk terpilih kembali, dan mendukung Wakil Presiden Kamala Harris sebagai kandidat melawan Donald Trump dari Partai Republik dalam pilpres AS November.
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00:00And right now we are already connected through video conference there is Mr. Sandika Sipta Labora, analyst from PT Kanakahita Solvira. Good morning, Mr. Sandika.
00:10Hello, good morning, Mr. Wiki.
00:11Okay, thank you for joining us at MarketBuzz this time at Power Breakfast.
00:16If we look at the movement of IHSG over the weekend, which then recorded a correction of 0.45%
00:22What is your analysis like, Mr. Sandika?
00:25Okay, in fact, last week the IHSG was closed with a correction of 0.45%.
00:32Well, this is a normal thing, because the IHSG has increased rapidly.
00:38It has increased for 4 consecutive weeks or a month like that.
00:43So it is normal for market players to take profit actions.
00:49Then also from the fundamental data from the global, the delay in the Chinese economy,
00:56where last weekend it was noted that the Chinese GDP in the second quarter of 2024 was as large as 4.70%,
01:04compared to 5.3% EOY in the first quarter of 2024.
01:09So the Chinese GDP is experiencing a delay.
01:12So this is also one of the negative catalysts for the movement of IHSG.
01:18If from a technical point of view, the IHSG is already in the resistance area.
01:24This is at 7403, like that, bro.
01:30Okay, data related to IHSG which did a net buy last week decreased to 754.84 billion,
01:40compared to the previous week which reached 1.56 trillion rupiah.
01:44What exactly is causing this condition, Mr. Sandika?
01:48Okay, indeed, if from IHSG itself has done a net buy action,
01:55or bought clean in the market in the previous weeks.
02:00So indeed, for the previous week, it experienced a decline in the net buy,
02:05because there was also someone who realized the profit, like that.
02:10Because foreign investors have also done a net buy action a few weeks ago.
02:15So it's normal for foreign investors, some foreign investors, to take profit,
02:22resulting in a decline in IHSG and also a decline in foreign net buy last week.
02:29Okay, one thing that is also the focus of global market players,
02:32related to Joe Biden's return from his candidacy in the upcoming press conference.
02:40It was informed, or maybe it was announced as a replacement,
02:44that he will move forward, like that.
02:47How do you see this, and does Joe Biden's return
02:52become something positive or negative, actually,
02:56seen from the reaction of the market, Mr. Sandika?
03:00Okay, if I look at it, if my own opinion, this is a negative catalyst,
03:04because for now, only Donald Trump has experience as the US President.
03:12Well, if we compare it to Joe Biden,
03:16they both have experience as the US President,
03:20so there are many choices for voters,
03:23so that later the vision and mission of the campaign will be taken into account, like that.
03:28And now that Joe Biden is back, of course the market is still wide and see
03:32who the candidate for Donald Trump's challenge is, like that.
03:39Okay, and we don't know about Kamal Haris' electability yet, right?
03:44That's right, Kamal Haris.
03:46So, in terms of risk, the market itself sees this as more risky,
03:52so there is a possibility that the capital outflow from the global capital market
04:00will enter other commodities or other investment portfolios, or something like that, Mr. Sandika?
04:06Okay, in my opinion, this is just a short-term negative sentiment,
04:11and later, if the US Billboard has entered the election campaign,
04:17and when there is a winner, the market will look back.
04:21For now, for investors, it's better to choose assets that are safe, like gold,
04:28because at the moment there is a global economic uncertainty
04:32as a result of Joe Biden's retirement, like that.
04:35Okay, from the historical point of view, when Donald Trump led the United States,
04:40what was the movement of the global capital market like?
04:45Is Donald Trump's value also quite favorable from an investor's point of view?
04:52As far as I can see, for now, the market still looks positive for Donald Trump,
05:00because he already has experience,
05:02and also last week there was a shooting incident,
05:05it made the public sympathize, so the electivity for Donald Trump is good, like that.
05:12Okay, then where will the IHSG movement go this weekend, Mr. Sandika?
05:17Okay, in my opinion, the IHSG, after the trading closed on Friday,
05:24it looks like it will try to test support at 7207,
05:30it looks like there will still be a potential weakness for the IHSG.
05:34If indeed the IHSG drops below 7207,
05:40it looks like the IHSG has a chance to form wave C from wave 2,
05:43so there is a chance to go to level 7000-7025, like that.
05:50It means that there is still a possibility of strengthening in the IHSG, right?
05:58In the short term, we see more of a test support and a decline, sir.
06:03It will weaken.
06:05Then, since you were talking about the electivity of Donald Trump,
06:08it must have been a shooting incident, right?
06:10Well, the electivity also increased,
06:14and psychologically it also has an impact on the market.
06:17Is this sentiment also possible to be a deterrent
06:22from the possibility of the correction of the IHSG this weekend or the global trade, Mr. Sandika?
06:29Okay, it looks like for now the IHSG,
06:34even though it will go up later to 7450,
06:39the upset is a bit limited
06:42if it forms a higher hike than the previous candle,
06:46technically, which happened on Friday, July 12,
06:49it will form wave 5 from wave 1.
06:51So even if the IHSG goes up, it's already limited, sir.
06:55So later on, market players can take advantage of the sell-on strength
07:01when the IHSG moves up and not down.
07:07This weekend, several emitters in several sectors
07:10will release data on Q2 2024,
07:14while this may also be one of the supporters,
07:17Mr. Sandika, for the IHSG.
07:20Okay, I agree, sir.
07:22If the release of data on the emitters in the IHSG is good,
07:28for example, banks,
07:30which usually issue financial reports at the beginning,
07:34of course, this will be a stimulus
07:36so that the IHSG has a chance to experience an increase.
07:40And it looks like for the future,
07:45until the end of the year, the IHSG will still move positively,
07:49even though there will be short-term corrections like that.
07:52Okay, what is the potential of BICAP compared to the release of data on Q2 2024?
07:59Okay, if I look at it,
08:01these four BICAPs in Q1 have a positive performance,
08:05even though the best is still the BCA performance,
08:10which is double-digit,
08:12although the three major BUMN banks
08:16experienced a fairly thin growth in Q1,
08:19but I see in Q2 it will still be positive,
08:23the performance will still grow
08:26compared to the first semester in 2023.
08:31Okay, Sam, compared to the BICAPs, which are still relatively cheap,
08:37which one do you recommend?
08:40Okay, I see that for now,
08:44those who still have a decent asset potential
08:50are BRI, BMRI, and BNI.
08:56Because if we look at it from the top,
09:00there is still a decline of about 20% to 25%,
09:06so if we look at D&I for the all-time high,
09:12it still has the potential to make investors
09:16can only get a double-digit profit.
09:21Moreover, maybe added to their expectations in Q2 2024,
09:27which is expected to be good,
09:29this then adds to the confidence of the investors
09:32to then be able to enter the BICAP-based banks.
09:38Okay, if we expand the scope,
09:41let's talk about the electoral branch,
09:44sectors that usually get special attention
09:47are the consumer sector and retail sector.
09:52What do you see for these sectors?
09:56Okay, if you look at it, it's true that consumers,
09:59because there is an increase in purchasing power,
10:01consumption increases,
10:03like that, because usually there is a bansos,
10:06when the election or election is held,
10:10it looks like later in Q4,
10:14because the campaign and election is in October to the end of November,
10:19it looks like later in October to the end of November,
10:23the movement of consumer and retail stocks
10:26will return to fluctuate like that,
10:28because it is indeed affected by the sentiment of the elected officials
10:31who will increase the purchasing power of the community.
10:34What are the interesting consumer and retail stocks?
10:37If I look at the technical side,
10:40for now, the interesting consumer is ICBP,
10:45it has succeeded in giving resistance to other trends,
10:49the closest will be 10,800,
10:55it will be 11,150, sorry,
10:58ICBP,
10:59to test its resistance.
11:00Okay, what about retail?
11:02Retail, indeed, retail is still moving in a downtrend,
11:07but I see that there is already a purchase pressure,
11:11and there is a potential rebound, there is MAPI.
11:15Okay, MAPI and also ICBP,
11:17which you recommended earlier, from the retail sector to the consumer goods.
11:20Okay, Mr. Anika, we will continue the next session,
11:23of course, with your greetings,
11:25and we will be right back.
11:32Thank you.