Budget 2024: Despite Bold Claims by Nirmala Sitharaman, Is Ground Reality Different?| Expert Talk

3 months ago

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her seventh consecutive Budget, outlining key measures for the Modi 3.0 government. The Budget introduced employment schemes and revised the new tax regime, while keeping old tax slabs unchanged. However, the budget implementation remains shrouded in mystery as the complacency takes over. We discuss with experts.

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Transcript

00:00Mr. Mishra, if we look at this budget in terms of human capital investment,

00:05yesterday there was an economic survey in which it was said that screen time is increasing

00:10or there was a discussion about health issues and food habits in the economic survey.

00:19Health sector and education sector are very important sectors.

00:23If you invest in this, then the human capital that is generated from there,

00:27if a person is healthy, gets a good education and is well skilled,

00:30then obviously it will help in your economy and for future growth.

00:35In that respect, how are you looking at this budget?

00:38First of all, for the health sector and for the health of the common man

00:43and then according to education, according to the children's future.

00:47So, before answering these specific questions, I would like to make two points.

00:51Mr. Mehta, you are saying that it is very good if 60-70% is implemented.

00:57Sir, I would say that 40% should be implemented. We are very happy.

01:00As a welfare economist, as a micro-economist, we say that even if 50% of welfare is percolated,

01:06if 50% out of 1 rupee reaches, whatever scheme we adopt, that is a successful scheme.

01:12So, we are saying that anything should be done between 40-50%.

01:15So, you know, it should not just be one.

01:17And Mr. Pankaj?

01:18Yes.

01:19Mr. Mishra, I would like to say that you touched a raw nerve here

01:24because when BJP came to power, romping home for the third time,

01:28it was repeatedly raised that if the government gives 1 rupee,

01:33then only 1 rupee reaches people.

01:35But now it has come down to 40-50 paise.

01:37See, if you will scratch the surface, then it will go down to 30 paise.

01:41Same accusation was done for Rajiv Gandhi and Congress.

01:44So, my question is that in this mess we have,

01:49what happens is that the common man is at a loss.

01:51Again, using this as a political card that we are giving direct benefit transfer and everything,

01:56yet the true story is that there are still roadblocks in implementation

02:00and it is possible that only 30-40% will be able to reach till now.

02:03Please, Mr. Mishra, carry on.

02:05Secondly, Mr. Pankaj, because you are a very progressive channel,

02:09I have always liked, loved interacting with you.

02:12Why don't media take some itself as a responsibility

02:16to do an impact evaluation of the budgets?

02:19Budget comes, 10 years pass, 12 months pass, a new budget comes.

02:25Most of the promises are similar.

02:27Shouldn't there be, because when we do an intervention otherwise

02:30in the economic world, we always do an impact evaluation

02:33that what is the impact of this intervention that has happened.

02:36If we can actually do an impact report independently of the last year's budget,

02:43like yesterday everybody was busy asking people what are your expectations from the budget.

02:48I always feel that that doesn't serve any purpose.

02:54Now, I can wish for the sun, moon and the stars.

02:57As a matter of fact, if we can twin it with an impact evaluation of the last budget,

03:06then it will be a more realistic trend.

03:09Now, an industry can comment on that.

03:15To go to the industry leader and just ask,

03:17what do you want?

03:19Forgive our taxes, forgive our import duties.

03:23If we want, we will want only those things.

03:25That is what we will always want.

03:27But it has to be clubbed with what is actually possible.

03:29So, that is one suggestion.

03:31Talking about the social sector development today,

03:33that was spoken about, both about the education and healthcare.

03:38I think that mental health is a topic that is being spoken about budget after budget nowadays,

03:47along with physical health.

03:49I think that is a welcome change.

03:51I think that is a step that should be welcomed always.

03:53And that is probably one thing I will not fight too much about.

03:59Even the fact that it is becoming a talking topic,

04:02that where people are trying to normalize,

04:05that there can be a mental health issue,

04:07very rampant, as common as common cold,

04:10in between people.

04:12Talking about this in every budget is an achievement in itself.

04:15So, I think that trend should continue.

04:17Keep on talking about mental health.

04:19We should keep on talking about women's mental health.

04:22Because that is the segment which is mostly neglected in terms of mental health.

04:26Nobody understands that a housewife, for an example,

04:29can have mental health issues.

04:31So, talking about this is a welcome change.

04:34Under Aushmanth Bharat,

04:36all the cards that they have issued,

04:38that statistic,

04:40I think these are good initiatives.

04:42That gives a kind of comfort.

04:44But again, implementation has to be a little more stricter,

04:47a little more streamlined,

04:49to get into this.

04:51About education,

04:53putting education and skilling together,

04:56is a major milestone.

05:00This is something that not only this government,

05:03every successive government should start implementing now.

05:06We are a very, very theoretical education system.

05:09We know a lot of things in theory,

05:12and we know a lot of things practically.

05:14They just don't match.

05:16So, that is the problem.

05:18If we can have more of skilling incorporated along with education,

05:22that probably is the most welcome change

05:24when we talk about people capital

05:26and increasing people capital.

05:28I believe we are a nation of people

05:31who are very resilient.

05:34We are hardworking.

05:36We can cope under very difficult conditions.

05:38But unfortunately, our education does not skill us.

05:41So, if we can...

05:43I am not saying that education is not important.

05:45People should be educated and they should be skilled.

05:47So, the more we bring these two together,

05:49as a nation,

05:51we will be utilising our man force,

05:53our human capital much and much better.

05:55So, this is what I believe.

05:57So, Mishra, very quickly,

05:59I presume last time I had forgotten,

06:01but in tandem global consulting,

06:03tell us more about it very quickly for our viewers

06:05so that they could also benefit from it.

06:07Thank you so much.

06:09So, this is a consulting firm that we run

06:11and we focus heavily on

06:13all kinds of research practices for this.

06:15We do a lot of proprietary research.

06:17We do sectoral research.

06:19We see impact evaluations

06:21and we also help smaller businesses a lot.

06:23So, by design,

06:2530% of our portfolio

06:27is for MSMEs and startups

06:29who cannot really afford

06:31very expensive consulting services.

06:33So, if they want to have

06:35advisory on how to incorporate

06:37better practices,

06:39compliances,

06:41help with their planning,

06:43help how things are moving in the world,

06:45educating them, that's what we do.

06:47Perfect. Perfect. Perfect.

06:49And obviously, Dr. Jaijit Bhattacharya,

06:51I have a question for you.

06:53I have a question for you.

06:55You are the founder and CEO of

06:57Zeron Microsystems Pvt. Ltd.,

06:59financial technology firm.

07:01In this,

07:03a lot of attention was given

07:05till yesterday when the economic survey

07:07report was presented, Yogesh,

07:09it was mentioned that the risk of AI,

07:11Dr. Bhattacharya,

07:13how do you weigh in?

07:15You are a financial technology firm.

07:17We saw,

07:19it was not touched upon majorly,

07:21but Nirmala Sitharaman did mention that

07:23there could be a risk to some of the job sectors,

07:25but productivity may not be affected.

07:27How do you see this whole

07:29technology, AI,

07:31and the progress together coming up?

07:35So, you know,

07:37about 7-8 years back,

07:39I had penned an article called

07:41Extreme Automation.

07:43My argument was that, you know,

07:45automation happens and new technology happens.

07:47People argue that

07:49there will be more jobs that will drop

07:51and there will be more jobs appearing.

07:53For example, when

07:55the taxis

07:57replaced the Tongas,

07:59the Tonga Wallace went for a strike in Delhi

08:01which was about 75 years back.

08:03And

08:05their claim was that

08:07with automated automation,

08:09the taxis were automated

08:11and Tonga Wallace

08:13would not have that load.

08:15Now imagine if Delhi was being run by Tonga Wallace.

08:17Clearly, we need to progress with the

08:19modern technology. However,

08:21AI, which I am taking

08:23as an extreme automation,

08:25is operating in very different ways.

08:27It's going to

08:29lead to job redundancies

08:31far faster

08:33than the number of new jobs

08:35it creates with the development of technology.

08:37And

08:39it really needs to be addressed

08:41very, very quickly.

08:43That's the reason I raised the alarm bell

08:45many years back on this matter

08:47that AI will be leading to significant

08:49job destruction.

08:51Now, in terms of other technologies,

08:53if you look at quantum,

08:55that's going to be a big threat to financial

08:57systems because it's going to

08:59crack all these

09:01security

09:03codes that are there, which runs

09:05your banking, through which you

09:07access banks, through your

09:09phone, through your mobile phone and so on.

09:11We need to quickly start going to

09:13quantum cryptography

09:15if we need to ensure that

09:17we survive. Otherwise, we'll have a

09:19Y2K kind of situation.

09:21The Y2K situation was essentially

09:23when the century changed from

09:251999 to 2000.

09:27The code bases

09:29could not take care of the

09:31change. Similarly, the day when the

09:33computing comes in, in a big way,

09:35we'll not be able to

09:37protect our financial systems

09:39and overnight they'll get back.

09:41And so that's another important thing that needs

09:43to be kept in mind that the government has to step in

09:45because it's

09:47a societal issue that's happening.

09:49In terms of

09:51technology, we

09:53saw what happened with Microsoft

09:55going down a couple of days back

09:57where there was a

09:59wrong patch

10:01that was added and

10:03the airlines could not fly. And these are

10:05situations that we had all been to.

10:07The airport could not move, the airlines could not fly

10:09and we actually saw that happening.

10:11Now, fortunately, it happened accidentally.

10:13Imagine if that happens

10:15with

10:17consent, with

10:19purpose.

10:21If India is

10:23getting into a strategic situation

10:25and decides that India is not

10:27the US's country anymore, it can apply

10:29pressure on Microsoft, Google

10:31and a few others of the world

10:33which are American companies,

10:35to get down to its knees.

10:37Now, it's very

10:39important for the government that

10:41our budgets and our policies

10:43start focusing on these minor issues

10:45which we at

10:47Silicon Valley Research have been focusing on

10:49for over 20 years.

10:51And that means that there is

10:53great alacrity.

10:55Yes, Deep.

10:57Let's see some reactions

10:59from the opposition.

11:01P.T. Tapram, who was

11:03a former finance minister,

11:05has welcomed the removal

11:07of Angel Tax.

11:09But he has also said that

11:11in the Congress manifesto, on page 31,

11:13it was mentioned that if we are in the government,

11:15we will remove Angel Tax.

11:17So, he has welcomed the removal of Angel Tax.

11:19He has also welcomed

11:21the employment-linked incentive

11:23in the Congress manifesto.

11:25Nirmala Sitharaman and the Modi government

11:27have included it in their budget.

11:29So, he has welcomed it.

11:31So, he has welcomed both these things

11:33in the budget.

11:35Let's go back to Mr. Sharmishtha.

11:37We want to know from you

11:39that all these things

11:41that you have said

11:43that even if 30-40% is implemented,

11:45it is very good.

11:47The whole question is about money.

11:49If a person has money in his hands

11:51and he has purchasing power,

11:53then obviously he will buy things

11:55in the economy, he will consume

11:57and there will be a boost in the economy.

11:59So, in this budget,

12:01do you think that the money

12:03that is coming into the hands of the common man

12:05will increase?

12:07I always say this

12:09because I am a micro-economist.

12:11I always say this

12:13that whenever we talk about SOPs,

12:15we always talk about the supply side.

12:17The supply side

12:19that we give better tax,

12:21we should empower the supply side.

12:23That's what we always do.

12:25We never talk about the demand side.

12:27So, until and unless we empower the demand side,

12:29until and unless there is money in the hands

12:31of the person who is going to purchase it,

12:33there has to be a perfect balance.

12:35So, that's why we always

12:37welcome welfare schemes.

12:39Because even if there is a welfare scheme

12:41that is happening,

12:43it is not wastage.

12:45The money reaches the user

12:47and comes back to the economy.

12:49Because if the buyer does not have money,

12:51then how will he buy?

12:53So, I feel that

12:55whatever schemes

12:57are there for MSMEs

12:59and start-ups,

13:01I think MSMEs are most important.

13:03We have been

13:05speaking about this continuously.

13:07This is not just to say

13:09that they are our backbone.

13:11They are actually the backbone of a country's economy.

13:13So, I think

13:15for when you call it

13:17Viksit Bharat, so be it schemes

13:19for providing internships,

13:21be it helping them

13:23getting their offices done,

13:25guarantee schemes, whatever,

13:27these schemes,

13:29money goes in the hand of the

13:31end-user. An MSME,

13:33generally, a smaller MSME

13:35or a micro, I am not even talking about

13:37an MSME, the smaller units,

13:39there is a single-person

13:41run unit.

13:43And running a business together.

13:45So, the money,

13:47till the benefit does not reach there,

13:49be it in terms of welfare,

13:51be it in terms of credit,

13:53till they have

13:55a spending power, all your

13:57initiatives towards the supply side

13:59will not give you the desired effect.

14:01Because if you keep compensating the supply side,

14:03it will actually be counter-productive.

14:05If you keep compensating the supply side,

14:07there is a map, it is very interesting,

14:09there is electricity in the budget right now.

14:11Certain amount of units,

14:13it is time to give it free.

14:15I think that 6 months back, this was the greatest

14:17evil. And I was saying

14:19that there is no such thing as evil.

14:21Right, right. Free electricity.

14:23Yes, yes.

14:25Political heat on it.

14:29So, I want to say that

14:31empower people on both the sides.

14:33Let the economy

14:35thrive on its own.

14:37The market is a dynamic organism.

14:39It is not a dead thing.

14:41The markets can survive on their own.

14:43Like Mr. Bhattacharya

14:45was saying about AI integration and all that.

14:47There can be a certain amount of

14:49scare around this.

14:51The way the bigger IT firms are

14:53laying off people and everything.

14:55But in the long run, I believe that it will adjust itself.

14:57So, markets adjust on their own.

14:59Markets never face

15:01any problem in adjustment.

15:03So, we have to make policies which are conducive

15:05to that adjustment, not a hindrance

15:07to that adjustment.

15:09So, if you are giving one SOP to the supply side,

15:11then give one SOP to the demand side as well.

15:13If you are reducing the rate of interest

15:15for a manufacturer,

15:17then reduce the rate of interest for a person

15:19who is trying to avail a credit facility as well.

15:21It should go in tandem,

15:23as my organization always says.

15:25Then only we can actually have the complete

15:27benefit of any policy implementation

15:29that is proposed at a

15:31budget level or whatever.

15:33Mr. Yogesh, is this what you were asking or

15:35you wanted to say something else?

15:37Absolutely.

15:39When it comes to liquid money

15:41or spending

15:43purchasing power,

15:45so that the markets at least have that

15:47money flowing.

15:49But at the end of the day,

15:51we will take a quick word

15:53from Mr.

15:55Jaijit Bhattacharya.

15:57Mr. Bhattacharya, at the end of the day,

15:59every economist, every anchor

16:01is a family man

16:03or has to run his own

16:05economy at home also.

16:07If you had to rate this budget

16:09out of 10,

16:11on the whole family tree,

16:13barring the businesses

16:15of it, how would you

16:17look at it? How would you rate it?

16:21Let me rate it in two ways.

16:23Let me rate it for those who are

16:25class and fundamental first.

16:27That's one set of family.

16:29I think I would rate it at around 8 out of 10.

16:31For those who are

16:33class, I would rate it around

16:357.5 out of 10.

16:37There seems to be a continued

16:39view that those who are

16:41rich need to be

16:43punished.

16:49But we forget that

16:51those who got concentration of capital in hand

16:53are the engines of growth.

16:55They are the ones who take the risk.

16:57When we lose money, there is no

16:59compensation that happens. It's not that we get back

17:0120% of the money.

17:03So, when we gain

17:05money, then we afford. There is a massive

17:07amount of tax that is brought in.

17:09Look at the last slab.

17:11It's 20%, 30%.

17:13There is also a cess on it.

17:2315 lakhs is nothing.

17:25Which means less than

17:271.25 lakhs a month

17:29is what somebody is earning.

17:31That's what

17:33a CEO is

17:35earning, say 5 lakh a month

17:37or 60 lakh a year.

17:39And a junior executive

17:41earning around, say,

17:431.5 lakh a month

17:45crosses to 18 lakh. They are the same.

17:47But there is a huge gap

17:49between the earnings.

17:51Absolutely.

17:53I think Deboot is answering your question.

17:55It looks differently for different people.

17:57Obviously, that's how democracy works.

17:59The larger set of people in the base

18:01of the pyramid.

18:03They will be pleased with this project.

18:05I think

18:07it's been long coming.

18:09We haven't seen relief

18:11for a very long time.

18:15It's after a long time that we have seen some relief

18:17for the working class

18:19in terms of direct taxation.

18:21I just hope that even the largest slab

18:23was brought down.

18:25It will help a lot of the

18:27immigration happening out of India to come back.

18:29A lot of the immigration happening

18:31because of tax purposes and tax reasons.

18:33I hope that

18:35there is more tax

18:37so people don't flock to Singapore and Dubai

18:39and they stay back.

18:51And if you can rate the budget also.

19:03They have allocated

19:05budget for the tribals.

19:07They have allocated budget for

19:09women's development etc.

19:11Which happens in every budget.

19:13But I think that this should continue.

19:15Just thinking

19:17what happened last year and why should we do it this year.

19:19It should continue.

19:21One thing I want to do because Sindhiaji was there

19:23on your channel just a couple of minutes back.

19:25Right.

19:27He was giving his statement

19:29about the budget overall.

19:31He is also the minister of donor

19:33I think which is the development of north eastern ministry.

19:35So I think

19:37lot of Indian resources

19:39should also go towards those

19:418 states apart from Assam.

19:43I think all of them need

19:45more push, more inclusiveness.

19:47So maybe Sindhiaji through

19:49your channel

19:51can think of

19:53how to allocate.

19:55Again I am saying this again and again.

19:57I see a lot of allocation.

19:59I haven't read the budget.

20:01We see a lot of allocation.

20:03How are we measuring

20:05what is happening with that allocation.

20:07Because without that accountability

20:09it just becomes jargon.

20:11Because we are a huge country.

20:13We are the world's largest consumer and producer market.

20:15We are the world's 5th largest economy

20:17in terms of numbers. It is mind boggling.

20:19So please let us think about this.

20:21How is a 3 lakh crores allocation

20:23and a 15 lakh crore allocation

20:25any different if the 3 lakh

20:27is implemented properly

20:29and the 15 lakhs is not.

20:31So I think

20:33whenever we rate it

20:35in terms of

20:37inclusiveness, in terms of

20:39infrastructure, a new point

20:41about rental thing

20:43has been included wherein they want to

20:45standardize the terms on which

20:47rents are to be managed

20:49throughout. That point I really like.

20:51There is a point made about

20:53acquiring land.

20:55How lands are acquired.

20:57That point I like because lot of

20:59the inequality comes from, starts

21:01from how land is acquired

21:03for housing or for infrastructure etc.

21:05city across city and that is

21:07how the rich poor divide keeps on increasing.

21:09Because land being a very finite

21:11resource, how it is sourced

21:13makes a big difference. Similarly when

21:15you have to provide a service and you need an

21:17office, you need an infrastructure, how it is

21:19rented out. I think the energy

21:21there is a complete section on energy.

21:23There is a section on energy audit.

21:25How if you are moving, if you are a

21:27smaller unit, for a bigger unit

21:29it is comparatively easier to move

21:31to a cleaner form of energy. But if you are

21:33a smaller unit, how do you

21:35do that? So I think there are a few

21:37good promises here that I am liking

21:39that we have not seen

21:41in the last budget. Based on

21:43that I can rate it about 7 out of

21:4510. I don't like ratings but

21:47I just genuinely wish that

21:49few of these

21:51initiatives are

21:53implemented and I also

21:55think that we keep a sharp look

21:57around the implementation

21:59of all of these initiatives.

22:21We will definitely do it.

22:23We want to work with you.

22:25We will need

22:27intelligent people like you

22:29so that we can interpret

22:31so that we don't get blinded again.

22:33These questions

22:35have become a very political

22:37tool. It should not be a political

22:39tool. Opposition will always say

22:41that this is bad. The government

22:43will always say this is great.

22:45Neither of them is correct. Everything

22:47will have pros and cons.

22:49Very objective.

22:51So you take the initiative and I think

22:53we will be happy to

22:55join in and assist.

22:57Much appreciated.

22:59Thank you so much.

23:01Thank you for having me.

23:03Sure. It's a pleasure.

23:05Thank you Sarmishta and Dr. Bhattacharya.

Budget 2024: Despite Bold Claims by Nirmala Sitharaman, Is Ground Reality Different?| Expert Talk

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