These Are Kamala Harris' 'Three Fundamental Problems' As Her Campaign Kicks Off: Political Scientist

3 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," political scientist Charles Lipson reacts to President Joe Biden's Oval Office address after he dropped out of the presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris' 2024 campaign.

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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me once again is Charles

00:07Lipson, Professor Emeritus at the University of Chicago. Charles, thanks for coming on.

00:12Hi, Brittany. I always love talking with you. And it seems like even if we skip just two

00:19or three days, the world changes.

00:23The world changes because you and I last spoke less than a week ago. And boy, oh, boy, did

00:29the election change since then. So as our viewers know, on Sunday, President Biden did

00:36drop a statement saying, I'm out of the race. He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.

00:42Since then, she has become the likely Democratic nominee. And President Biden on Wednesday

00:47night delivered an Oval Office address saying why he's out of the race somewhat. You called

00:54it. He was delivering a eulogy. Let's talk about the address. What did you think?

01:00It was a eulogy for his own political career, which is a long one. And for his proponents,

01:07a distinguished one for his opponents. Less so. But I think that he left open a number

01:15of questions. One, he needed to do several things in the speech. I thought that the thing

01:21that he did most effectively was to say, I'm really passing the baton to Kamala Harris

01:28and I'm doing it without any reservations. She'll be a great president. I thought that

01:36the idea that he's passing the baton to a new generation, a ringing phrase from JFK's

01:44inaugural address and something that Corrine Jean-Pierre in the press conferences since

01:52then has just reiterated doesn't explain what changed. It was a new generation a year ago.

02:00It was a new generation a week ago. What changed over the weekend? And we really haven't had

02:09much reporting about what sticks and carrots were used. We know that the key mover was

02:16really Nancy Pelosi and maybe secondarily Barack Obama. But we'd like to know kind of

02:23what went on. But the races moved on. And what struck me was a couple of things. One

02:30was how quickly the Democrats coalesced around Harris. I think thinking that they would blow

02:37up their coalition if they if they didn't. And the other is how quickly the news media,

02:46which really for two years at least, has been covering up Joe Biden's decline and not doing

02:54their basic journalistic duty, has now just jumped completely on board. I mean, it's it

03:00was a complete 180. And I think that they haven't really recognized how much public

03:07trust they've lost. And there was this sense of a coronation around Vice President Kamala

03:15Harris, because after Biden did endorse her, the endorsements did come in, notably not

03:20from former President Obama. As you and I sit here reportedly, that is coming soon.

03:26So what do you think of her as the nominee now?

03:30Well, a couple of points. The first is that now in 2020 and in 2024, she has not received

03:39a single vote by an actual voter to be the party's presidential nominee. She dropped

03:46out before Iowa last time and she was number two this time. So it's kind of hard for the

03:54Democrats to run on the we're preserving democracy when you have a backroom's choice

04:01of candidate. I think they do have an argument about Trump's failure to acknowledge the last

04:09election. I think that was a serious matter. I've criticized it many times. So I'm not

04:14trying to sugarcoat that. But I am saying that this diminishes it. I think that Harris

04:20has two, three fundamental problems. One is she's unlikable. She's unlikable in the

04:27same sense that Hillary Clinton was. Donald Trump is people just drop into one of two

04:35camps. They either like him or they dislike him. But so that's one problem. Second problem

04:42is that Harris is tied to Joe Biden's record and it's a record that is not very popular.

04:51I mean, it's not just I mean, I don't think people dislike Joe Biden personally. So his

04:57ratings, which are the lowest in the history of polling for any president and hers were

05:04about the same, were all really a reflection of people's dissatisfaction with policy. Joe

05:11ran as a unifier and somebody who would sort of run from the center left. He's run very

05:17progressively. The third problem that Harris has is that her own policy advocacy is and

05:23we have a lot of them on tape are closer to Bernie Sanders than they are to the middle

05:30of the party or to the middle of the electorate. And I think it's a mistake for the Republicans

05:36to emphasize, oh, she doesn't have children or their personal attacks. I hate them anyway.

05:42But I think it's a political mistake. They should run on policy differences. Let's take

05:48that last part first, her being a more left politician. Do you think then that that makes

05:56her vice presidential pick all the more important here? Because traditionally they don't matter

06:02as much. But now she only has just a few months left until Election Day. So how important

06:07is her running mate pick? You're correct that they almost never matter. The last one that

06:15was thought to really matter was Lyndon Johnson, who helped carry Texas because he had deep

06:21political machine there. I would say that the picking of. Of a candidate who had mental

06:31health problems in an earlier Democratic race was also a problem, but for the most part

06:41they don't. And I think people are saying, look, it'll probably be a Senate, a senator

06:46or governor, probably from a swing state with people thinking that Mark Kelly might be in

06:55the lead position, but also Josh Shapiro. I think people should recognize that there

07:04are a lot of people who say, well, the Democrats can't pick Josh Shapiro because he's Jewish.

07:11That is one of the most disturbing things I've heard in modern politics, frankly. I

07:18mean, I hear you. I agree with you wholeheartedly there. So do you think she should pick him?

07:26I mean, why is that such a concern? Well, the reason that she would want to pick him

07:34is is twofold. He's kind of more to the center. He's progressive, but he's more to the center

07:39than she is. Frankly, almost everybody is. And the other reason is that he comes from

07:44a state that she really needs to win, which is Pennsylvania, and he has a sort of deep

07:49political ties there. She also needs to win Arizona, and Mark Kelly would be helpful there.

07:58So it's just hard to know in their discussion about the governor of North Carolina and so

08:06on. I actually thought that Trump would have been better off picking Yankin. I thought

08:11that he would have been a stronger pick, but I can see why he picked J.D. Vance. And I

08:18wrote the reasons were largely because I think he he wants to solidify the MAGA movement

08:27for 2028 and beyond. Remember, he will be a lame duck if he's elected on the day he's

08:35elected. So he needs to be thinking about the future. And I think that that's that's the

08:41reason. But I just don't think that the vice president will will matter all that much in

08:47terms of the voting population. I want to get back to your point about how Republicans

08:56should criticize Kamala Harris based on policy and not identity. Aside from age and mental

09:02acuity, I mean, she was Biden's number two. So does she inherit the problems that President

09:09Biden had in this election, like the border, like the economy, like inflation? And how does

09:15she separate herself from those? She can't. And one more. You listed the big ones. And I

09:23would add energy, which is a big issue in Pennsylvania. I don't know if you've seen the ad

09:30that that the aspirant for Senator Casey's seat, whose name is Dave McCormick, is running. But it

09:41can run in almost every state. It does emphasize energy, but it just it's just filled. It's almost

09:47entirely clips of Kamala Harris stating her policy position. She doesn't want fracking. She

09:53wants the whole Green New Deal. She would shut down a lot of energy production. By the way, I

10:00don't think that's just a problem in Pennsylvania. I think it's an even bigger problem in

10:04Michigan. These automobile companies have lost fortunes on EVs. And while everybody has been

10:12talking about the importance of the Muslim vote, Muslim American vote in Dearborn and elsewhere in

10:18Michigan, there are a lot of auto workers there, too. And I just filled up my car today in

10:24Chicago and it was almost $5 a gallon. And it's not like we're getting good public services for

10:31that. It's not like the streets aren't filled with potholes and the like. So I think people are

10:36concerned with the energy policies. I think people would like to see people are concerned with

10:44global warming. People are concerned with environmental change. And I think so I'm not

10:50trying to sweep the other side, but I do think that people are concerned with everyday issues like how

10:59much are they paying to heat their home in the winter? How much are they paying for their daily commute and

11:04all the rest? We've gotten a glimpse into how Vice President Kamala Harris is running this campaign.

11:11She's only been the likely nominee for just a few days now, but she's pitting herself against Donald

11:16Trump as the prosecutor versus the felon. She said, I know Donald Trump's type. That is her strategy going

11:24forward. What do you make of that take?

11:27It's an interesting one, because, of course, she was sharply criticized by by a lot of African-Americans in

11:37particular for being a very aggressive, tough prosecutor. But then as soon as she moved into national

11:44politics, she began she began to raise money for bail for Black Lives Matter protesters who've been arrested

11:54for for various criminal acts and all the rest. I think that in general, Brittany, I think that the lawfare has

12:05has hurt the Democrats. I think it's perceived as mobilizing the entire judicial system against a political

12:15opponent. And the 34 felony counts on which Trump was convicted are rather like, first of all, they they strung

12:28together two misdemeanors and a felony, all of which the statute of limitations had had run out on. But the 34

12:40counts were like if you had shoplifted a bag of groceries and it had 34 candy bars, instead of charging you with one

12:49count of shoplifting, they charge you with 34 counts for 34 candy bars. So it was all ginned up. And then almost all the

13:00these prosecutions have fallen apart. And I'm almost certain that the the case in New York, which was a political case

13:13from top to bottom, will eventually be overturned. But they don't care about that. They want to get it through the

13:22election, calling Trump a felon. I think that it's a I don't know if it's a political mistake for her to do it. I assume that

13:36Kamala Harris doesn't do anything that hadn't been poll tested and and focus group tested and all all the rest. But what it

13:45suggests to me is how few issues they have to run on. They can't run on immigration. She's trying to squirm out from her role as

13:53the borders are. They can't run on inflation. They what they can really run on is January 6 and abortion. That's their two

14:05issues. And now they're trying to add and Trump is a criminal. Let's talk about her. And one more thing. I'm sorry. One more

14:13thing. They're trying to say democracy is endangered. But they're and they may be right about the threats to democracy. But they

14:25come from both sides. You have the Democrats who want to have tried very hard to expand the Supreme Court or to change the

14:36Supreme Court so they can get the rulings they want. They want to blow up the Senate's traditional rules. They've just changed an

14:45enormous number of basic rules of our democracy to help themselves. And in that sense they've also threatened democracy. But still I

15:01would say that that's an issue on which they're going to try to run. I just don't think it's nearly as important to people as kitchen

15:08table. Now that President Biden dropped out a lot of Republicans have said this is rich coming from the party who claims to care

15:17about democracy that no one voted for Vice President Kamala Harris in this primary. And now she'll probably be the nominee. Democrats

15:24have fought back and have said that a vote for Biden was a vote for Harris because they're on the ticket. A and B polling suggests by

15:33an overwhelming majority Democratic voters wanted Biden to step aside. What do you make of that argument.

15:41There's something to it. That is I think many voters many Democratic voters didn't think that Joe Biden would last for another four

15:50years if he were reelected. But it is it is also sort of sleight of hand isn't it. Nobody nobody who's voting for Trump is really

16:03casting their vote for J.D. Vance. I mean they recognize that the vice president could take the could take the lead position if there's a

16:13heart attack or stroke or you know some other event. But it's just rich and misleading and deliberately so to say they were voting

16:25for Harris to begin with. What this was was a backroom coup. And it's not unlike the way that politics used to run in the 1920s when

16:35people would sit in a smoke filled room. Now the only difference is that they don't allow smoke.

16:43I want to talk about her campaign now because I was talking to a strategist and he said that it feels like the past few days have

16:49definitely been a honeymoon phase for Vice President Kamala Harris. But if we remember back to her 2020 run I mean she didn't make it

16:57to 2020. She dropped out before Iowa. That campaign fell flat. She failed to find her groove there. Now she has less than four

17:06months out from the election. She has seen historic fundraising numbers in recent days. She's been embraced by Gen Z on social

17:13media. So do you anticipate that she keeps this momentum up until November.

17:17No. But I do think she's a better candidate than she was last time. She's she's more experienced. She hasn't made as many mistakes.

17:31But her word salad speech is her sense that she was looking down on people. The fact that nobody is willing to work for her for more than

17:40about a year. They quit. I think that the public for the most part doesn't have a very positive view of her. But again I think that

17:52the that the problem that she will have beyond the people don't like her as they didn't like Hillary is is really a policy problem. Yes

18:04there's a honeymoon. Look at how quickly the honeymoon ended after the spurt of support for Donald Trump after the assassination

18:14attempt. It faded very very quickly. Scared us all for sure. And it may have made some people think that they want to support him. But

18:25for the most part these things fade. My guess and it's only a guess is that she will peak from now through the convention and then fade

18:37after that. And I think that the crucial issue for Republicans is to define her before she can define herself.

18:48And you've said in this conversation define her based on policy alone is their most effective strategy. Is that what you think. Yes I think

18:57that she should be tied to all the failures of the Biden administration and particularly immigration and some and the economic

19:11failures. And then on top of that the fact that she is really a Democratic socialist and that her voting record in Congress this isn't

19:21made up. And she was proud of it that she was the most left wing member of the Senate. Her record is is much closer to a Bernie Sanders

19:33than to a kind of middle of the road Democrat. The Democratic Party has substantially shifted over the past decade or two really since

19:45Obama and the Republican Party has shifted since Trump. And it's not simply a left right shift under Trump. You have the Republicans

19:58becoming a working class party. And what you what I've noticed among the Democrats and this is certainly true of both Biden and

20:08Harris is that they're running against the party of George H.W. Bush a country club rich guys party. And I don't think that that's the

20:18current party. Every quintile in the American electorate did better economically under Trump. They don't think that he's trying to hand

20:30away money to rich people at the expense of the poor. So I think that they've got to come up with something better. And I think that the

20:40Democrats are also vulnerable on education. Education is in real disrepute. And the role of colleges has been a real problem there. And I

20:48think that will also hurt Kamala. And finally Democrats are the party of government and government hasn't looked very good for the last

20:58several years. They couldn't protect the president from an assassination attempt. The CDC mishandled Covid and then lied to us about it. The FBI

21:11has made repeated errors. We saw the 51 former intelligence agents claim everything was a Russian hoax. So the government hasn't looked good.

21:21That hurts the party in power and it especially hurts Democrats because they're the party of government.

21:28So there are still some undecided. Still some independents up for grabs in this election. How does Vice President Harris persuade them to vote for her.

21:41It's an interesting question. I think a lot of a lot of the persuasion. First of all she'll have to get out and do retail campaigning in these

21:51key battleground states. Second thing is I think the Democrats have a very good ground game. They will really get voters out. But I think

22:01they're vulnerable among black voters who I mean the more that the Democrats emphasize that she would be the first black black woman

22:17president the first woman president and so forth. The more they run an identity politics campaign they might appeal to well educated

22:28women in the suburbs. But I don't think that that resonates with a lot of voters anymore. I think voters are concerned about their

22:37economic well-being. I think they're concerned about safety. They're concerned about an open border. They're concerned about international

22:46wars. And I think that Kamala Harris has to be able to answer those kinds of questions. And I frankly I don't know what her answer will be. And I

22:56don't think she probably knows yet how to do it. Of course she'll emphasize other issues. But if she can't come up with good answers on those

23:06absolute kitchen table issues I think she'll have a real problem. And in fact I think she is the underdog in the race regardless of her recent

23:14bump. I think that she will have a hard go. Trump's problem is showing some restraint. He's already won the Republican Party. He

23:25doesn't have to go over the top all the time but he does. Charles I want to end the conversation where it began and it's on President

23:34Biden. I know last night you said that overall office address was his eulogy. But I'm curious what his legacy is going to be because since

23:45the presidential debate until now we've seen a lot. We've seen people Democrats initially stand by President Biden. We saw the calls for him

23:54to step down grow louder and louder. We saw him seemingly and reportedly forced out the door by his own party. And then once he stepped

24:03down he is getting somewhat of a hero's exit. Everyone thanking him. And by everyone I mean Democrats thanking him for his service in

24:10politics. The past decades. What do you think his legacy is going to be.

24:16I'm reminded of all those presidents whose names we can't remember between between Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. They're just these anonymous

24:28figures who kind of were placeholders for the most part. And I don't think he had much of an impact. I think people will remember Barack Obama

24:39for two things. They'll remember him for being the first black president. They'll remember him for putting the final capstone piece in the FDR

24:48program of a kind of full welfare state because Barack Obama really thanks to John McCain got Obamacare passed. So now we have health

25:02insurance. By the way Kamala Harris is on record not only for letting the border be open but saying that we should provide the same health

25:14care to all illegals who come in the country. We should provide the ACA health care to all those people. Now she'll either have to back off of

25:23her previous position and explain why or whatever. But I think going back to your Biden question I think Biden will be viewed as a kind of

25:32placeholder for four years who who didn't succeed very much. And I think part of his legacy will depend upon some of the criminal trials that are

25:48related to the corruption. We don't know how his family got rich except that we know that they got rich because of their association with a high

26:00Democratic policy maker and that they that a lot of money came into the family through that. Now he may not be convicted but it doesn't smell

26:11good. And do you think that his legacy is really dependent. Also if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected he'll have more of a glossy shiny

26:22legacy if she is and then will be blamed if Trump gets elected. Do you think that's how history will look upon him.

26:30That's an excellent point. Brittany if he can successfully pass the torch that's one thing. If he fails there'll be an interesting question

26:42about whether the Democratic Party is well served by figures like Kamala Harris or take take Gavin Newsom. Gavin Newsom has done the near

26:56impossible turn the gorgeous wonderful state of California into a kind of sinkhole. It's almost impossible to mess those things up but they've

27:06done it and they've done it with these very progressive policies. So the Democratic Party if they lose we'll have to figure out whether they

27:16want to try to move back to the center. And one of the problems with moving back to the center is what's called adverse selection. That is the

27:24only people who are left standing after an unsuccessful election like that are people from the most liberal states holding the most

27:35liberal positions. But I do think your basic point is absolutely right. If hands off the presidency to a successor that's very good news for

27:47him. If he fails to hand it off to a successor and a large part of the reason that she fails is because of his policies then of course

27:58that's going to hurt his reputation historically. Charles per usual it's always such a pleasure to talk with you. Thank you so much for

28:07joining. I always enjoy it Brittany.

These Are Kamala Harris' 'Three Fundamental Problems' As Her Campaign Kicks Off: Political Scientist

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