Hamas Political Chief Killed In Iran — Here's What That Means For Israel And The War In Gaza

last month

Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, was killed in Tehran early on Wednesday, Iranian officials said, as Hamas blamed Israel and accused it of carrying out a targeted assassination. Brad Bowman, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joins "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss.

Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/07/31/hamas-political-chief-ismail-haniyeh-killed-in-iran-militant-group-blames-israel/

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Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:07is Brad Bowman, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Brad, thank you

00:12so much for coming on. It's my pleasure. Thank you. A lot has unfolded in the Middle East

00:17over the past few days, but I first want to start with the conflict between Hezbollah

00:21and Israel. So over the weekend, a strike in Golan Heights killed at least 12 children

00:27on a soccer field. The IDF blamed Hezbollah. Hezbollah denied responsibility. So then earlier

00:32this week, Israel responded with a Beirut strike that killed a Hezbollah commander.

00:37What do we need to know in this conflict? Thanks for the question. It's really an

00:42important question. I think what some of your viewers may not know that I think is the starting

00:47point for understanding what we're witnessing currently is that following the October 7 Hamas

00:52terror attack on Israel, which was the worst murder, single-day murder of Jews since the

00:57Holocaust, Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic of Iran's varsity terror proxity based in Lebanon,

01:04started attacking Israel on almost a daily basis on October 8th. And so there has been a low-scale

01:10war going on in Israel's north that has gotten increasingly intense with more deadly strikes,

01:17more frequent further into each of the respective countries across what's called the blue line,

01:22the effective border between Israel and Lebanon. And for a long time, Israel has been warning that

01:28if these attacks from Hezbollah, this terrorist organization in Lebanon that has a military that's

01:34more formidable than a lot of European militaries, didn't stop its attack, that things could spin out

01:40of control and do a major war. And unfortunately, we saw on Saturday, as you said, this short-range

01:46rocket launched from southern Lebanon by Hezbollah. I don't believe what they're saying.

01:51They're not known for truth-telling. Israel and the U.S. government says this was Hezbollah. It

01:55was launched from areas that Hezbollah controls, launched this rocket, and it killed 12 children

02:01and injured more than roughly 50 people, the worst single-day attack on Israel since October 7th. And

02:09Israeli leaders responded the way you'd expect them to respond, and that is that this was

02:13unacceptable and that there would be a response. And when you're Israel, you know, a country

02:19roughly the size of New Jersey, surrounded largely by enemies that want to exterminate

02:26your country, then when this happens and you live in a tough neighborhood, you have to respond. And

02:30indeed, that's what they did. They responded with this strike in Beirut, taking out Fuad Shukr,

02:36who was a top commander there and was responsible for this murder of these 12 children and responsible

02:45countless other attacks and was actually involved, believe it or not, in the 1983 bombing that killed

02:50more than 240 U.S. service members. So as a former U.S. service member, it feels to me, you know,

02:55I don't celebrate the death of anyone, but it feels to me like this individual had justice

02:59coming and Israel delivered that justice. And so that's the Beirut strike. And then, of course,

03:04we had the big strike in Iran that we could talk about as well, if you like.

03:09Yeah, we will talk about that in a second. But I am curious,

03:12can we expect any further escalation here? Or after Israel's response to the Beirut strike,

03:18is it over? No, I don't think. I think in the Middle East generally, but particularly in what

03:23we're seeing between Hezbollah and Israel, this is almost certainly not over. My prediction would be

03:29that Hezbollah will respond to Israel and that response could be escalatory. And so we could be

03:37here at the early stages of an escalatory cycle that could spin out of control into a full-scale

03:42war. And the thing for your viewers to understand is that these aren't vacuous words. This is a big

03:49deal if that happens, because Hezbollah is far more formidable than Hamas and Gaza is.

03:55Just to throw a few numbers on the table, Hezbollah has somewhere between 150,000

04:01and 200,000 rockets and mortars and missiles. And so we've had periodic spats between Israel

04:11and terrorist groups in Gaza over the last few years, and you have a few thousand rockets launched

04:18over a week, week and a half. Hezbollah could be launching that quantity in one day. And it would

04:24be a combination of unguided rockets, large quantities of those, combined with drone swarm

04:31attacks, combined with the use of precision-guided munitions. So the Israeli military is the best in

04:36the region, but that kind of attack that I'm describing could overwhelm some of Israel's air

04:42and missile defenses. And so that would put a burden on Israel to not only try to shoot those

04:46down, it will fail in some cases to do that, but to aggressively go after the launch sites in

04:51Lebanon. So what I'm describing is a major war in Lebanon where it could become worse than what

04:59we saw in Gaza. So let's talk about geography here for a moment. This is happening in northern

05:05Israel, but I want to turn to how this would affect the war in Gaza. Would it? Yes. So I think

05:14it's important to understand that Hamas was not acting alone and Hezbollah is not acting alone.

05:21It's important to understand what the network that they're operating as part of. They're part

05:27of what's called a resistance movement, which sounds very noble, but it's not. It's just,

05:32frankly, a group of terrorists, a whole bunch of different terrorist groups. Who's in that group?

05:37It's Hamas, which a lot of your viewers are familiar with in Gaza. It's Hezbollah, whom we

05:43were just talking about in Lebanon. It's the Houthis now in Yemen, which also has been attacking

05:48Israel and has been attacking U.S. sailors and civilian merchants in the Red Sea for quite some

05:54time, the most significant assault on international shipping in decades, as well as groups in Iraq

05:59and Syria. So there's a whole network of terror proxies. You can think of it as kind of a puppet

06:05master in the Islamic Republic of Iran and these terror proxy puppets. And what happens is that,

06:12and this will sound like I'm exaggerating, but I believe the evidence supports it and stands

06:16up to scrutiny. Iran is implementing a multi-year campaign to surround, harass,

06:22harryware down and ultimately exterminate the state of Israel. And I think anyone who would

06:28say, well, that's kind of extreme. Are you exaggerating a little bit? Look at what happened

06:31on October 7th. Look at Iran's response. Look at Iran's response to the death of the Hamas leader

06:40in Iran. And you start to understand that this is a methodical strategy where they're trying

06:45to establish this ring of fire around Israel, America's most reliable and capable ally in the

06:50Middle East. And so America is not and should not be neutral on this. And that's why it's so important

06:55that we've come to Israel's aid after October 7th, in my view, and also when

06:59Iran conducted an unprecedented direct assault on Israel on April 13th and 14th.

07:06So Iran is fighting Israel through these multiple proxies. Many of my guests from the FDD included

07:12have told us this. But when or at all, if will we see Iran become in and Iran directly fight Israel?

07:22It's a great question. We've already seen it. The assault I just mentioned on April 13th and 14th,

07:28we had the Islamic Republic of Iran launch somewhere close to 350 munitions

07:36at Israel, and only a small number got through. And it wasn't for lack of trying. They were

07:40absolutely trying to murder Israelis with that attack. But they failed. They did injure,

07:46sadly, one Bedouin girl, but they failed because of the sophistication and capability of Israeli

07:51air and missile defense and the assistance of the United States. And don't miss this.

07:56Some of the help that came from Arab countries, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and that's a

08:01nightmare for Iran, because like a bully on the playground, the Islamic Republic of Iran wants to

08:06divide and conquer, divide, distract and conquer the other kids so they can pick them off one by

08:11one. So that's why it's so important to understand what's going on here. This is a broader strategy

08:17by Iran. And if we only respond to the terror proxies, we only hit the terror puppets,

08:24and we leave the puppet master sitting back in comfort, smiling, then that plays right into

08:30Iran's strategy. Unfortunately, that's what the United States and to some degree, Israel

08:34has been doing for quite some time now. Hamas's top political leader was killed in a strike in

08:40Iran. Hamas is blaming Israel. The IDF has not commented. What does this strike do to the Israel

08:47Hamas war? Yeah, you know, so what it's not a great time to be a Hamas leader. And it's not it's

08:55not it's not a safe time to be a Hamas leader. And that's hardly surprising, right? If you conduct

09:01the worst single day murder of Jews on October 7th, then what would you expect Israel to do?

09:07Let's remember, Israel was a country established after the Holocaust, where 6 million Jews were

09:12murdered as a place of safety for Jews. And this was some combination for Israelis of Pearl Harbor

09:19in the 9-11. And just they had to respond. So, of course, Israel is going to go after the leaders.

09:26And that's what they've done. They've gone after Salah. There was the death on January 2nd of

09:30Saleh Arori in Lebanon. You had the death of Marwan Issa, the deputy commander of the military

09:36wing on March 10th. You had the likely death of Bahama Dief on July 13th. And then here on July

09:4431st, Ismail Haniyeh, the chief political leader. So, you know, who does that leave? That

09:50leaves Kaleid Mishal in Qatar, who's sitting in comfort there in Qatar, is less relevant these

09:56days. And Yaya Sinwar, the person most responsible for the horrors of October 7th. So Yaya Sinwar

10:02is likely hiding in a tunnel in Gaza. And I suspect he's probably going to find his final

10:08demise there in that tunnel. So Israel has been successful in going after Hamas leadership as

10:14you'd expect them to, as they had no choice to do. Roughly two-thirds of Hamas's fighting force

10:19has been destroyed. That's the good news. The bad news is about a third to some degree, depending

10:24how you measure it, still exists. And so one of the reasons why Israel has been reluctant to go

10:29to a full-scale war with Hezbollah is because it didn't want to be confronting two major wars at

10:34the same time. And then also keep in mind what I said earlier, right? If you have a major war

10:38in Hezbollah that lasts months or years with the kind of firepower that Hezbollah brings to that,

10:44then once again, as formidable as Hezbollah is and as necessary as it is for Israel to respond with

10:50more than 60,000 Israelis displaced from their home, more than two dozen Israelis killed,

10:55they have to do something about it. But again, if they're spending all their finite time,

10:59resources, attention, munitions on going after the puppet, then once again, there is Iran sitting

11:05back, smiling, seeing Israel get worn down as it's receiving no counterpunches itself.

11:12I do want to talk about what this all means for a potential ceasefire deal, because the top

11:17political leader of Hamas that was killed on Wednesday, he apparently was a key figure in the

11:24ceasefire talks. So does this mean that they are stalled? Are they not on the table anymore?

11:30What does that look like? Right. So if you think about it, if you're Yaya Sinwar or another Hamas

11:37leader and you're looking at the offer on the table, right, and you see all of your colleagues

11:43in crime, if you will, dying, I would say receiving their just due, then that might make you just on

11:50a human level eager for a ceasefire. Right. And the main point of contention has been whether it

11:58is a temporary ceasefire or a permanent ceasefire. Right. Generally speaking, Friends of Israel want

12:04a temporary ceasefire because they want Israel at a time and place of its choosing to come back

12:09and finish as much of the job as possible. Easier said than done. And Friends of Hamas want a

12:14permanent ceasefire because they they they want this group, this group itself. I'll speak to

12:19about them directly, wants to survive, to live and conduct a future October 7th as many times

12:25as possible. Don't take my word for it. See what they've said. So that's been the central

12:30contention. Obviously, we have the the poor hostages, the ones that are still alive that

12:35need to come home sooner rather than later. But there are multiple dynamics at play here.

12:41And I would I would suggest that probably for the remaining Hamas leaders, what they're seeing

12:47might incentivize them to be more to view a potential deal more favorably. But again,

12:53they're going to want a permanent ceasefire, not a temporary ceasefire.

12:57From this conversation, you're essentially saying all roads lead back to Iran. They are the puppet

13:03master here. What do you see Iran's role being as tensions continue to escalate further and further?

13:12I think that the Islamic Republic of Iran will feel a need to respond strongly from their

13:18perspective to to the assassination of Ismail Hania, the chief political leader. I my educated

13:26guess would be that that response would come in multiple forms. We're probably going to see

13:30responses from the terror proxies. I probably certainly response from Hezbollah and then also

13:36potentially responses directly from Iran. I think Iran is troubled for their part. The regime is

13:44by the fact how easily Israel went in and did a pinpoint strike against this leader.

13:49And they're going to feel a political need to respond, because frankly, it makes them look

13:53pretty weak. And and it kind of undercut suggestions that the Islamic Republic of Iran,

13:58the regime at least is 10 feet tall because it's not. And what specifically are you looking out

14:04for next in the Middle East region as a whole? Yeah, I've been watching. And at FDD.org,

14:11we have a tracker of all the attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. And your viewers

14:17can go there and see it where we document each of those. And the point is that for so long,

14:22we had regular attacks on U.S. forces and the Biden administration was just, frankly,

14:26slow in responding. But when they finally and then sadly, because they were slow in responding,

14:32the attacks continued. And then we had the three U.S. service members kill the Tower 22 in Jordan,

14:37as some of your viewers remember, which was horrible. You know, three patriotic Americans

14:41that will never return to their families who paid the ultimate sacrifice for our country.

14:44And so after that, belatedly, I would respectfully say the Biden administration responded strongly.

14:50And after more than 85 attacks in one day and then killing some militia leaders a short time later,

14:56after that strong response, what happened? Exactly what you'd expect to happen on a playground

15:02when you finally punch the bully in the face. The bully backed down for a long time. For an

15:07extended period of weeks, there was only a couple attacks, a dramatic change from the status quo.

15:12And so my study of history since 1979, looking back to the Reagan era, looking back after the 2003

15:18Iraq invasion, looking at the data that we lay out in detail on our website about more recently

15:24in Iraq and Syria, what I observe is that when the Islamic Republic of Iran sees weakness in

15:30Washington, it is literally a green light for more attacks. And when they see concerted strength

15:36emanating from Washington, they back down. The problem is, is that we do this strategic,

15:42narcissistic, strategic mirroring where we think our adversaries are just like us, that if we

15:46extend a hand in friendship, extend an olive branch, hey, we don't want a regional war, we don't want

15:51to fight. Then we think, oh, they'll be reasonable and they'll respond. But no, they see that as

15:55weakness and they attack us more, just like the bully on the playground. I hate to keep coming

15:59back to that. But if you have a bully who's throwing punches and you keep saying, I don't want

16:03to fight, I don't want to fight, I don't want to fight, what's the bully going to do? He's going to

16:05hit you in the mouth again. And that's the general, that's the approach toward Iran. But unfortunately,

16:11in this election year, if I'm being blunt, and kind of the instinct that we see from this

16:15administration that played out, frankly, in the Ukraine context, and we've seen playing else

16:20elsewhere, very good intentions, but very naive and weakness and repeating, we don't want a regional

16:26war, we don't want a regional war, we don't want to, which is all true, we don't want a regional

16:30war, we don't want an escalation. By saying that, you're signaling weakness and inviting more

16:34attacks. And if I could, if I could persuade the Biden administration of one thing, I would ask

16:38them to look at the evidence for that approach and see that it has failed. If you could talk to

16:43the Biden administration today, how would you want the United States to respond today?

16:49I would say that when Israel confronts one of the worst attacks in its history,

16:55you stand with Israel. And I would give the Biden administration credit for the first week's act

16:59for October 7th, both in word and in action, they stood with Israel. They continue to send

17:05an unprecedented array of weapons, quantity and array of weapons. But at the same time,

17:10the rhetoric was escalating, demonizing and isolating Israel, which was inadvertently,

17:15I would say, empowering Israel's enemies. And then every time Israel is attacked,

17:21the White House comes in and says, well, you know, restrain Israel, restrain Israel. And if

17:25you just think about that logically, again, if Israel's enemies can rely on Washington restraining

17:30Israel every time it's attacked, what are you doing? You're encouraging the enemies of Israel

17:36to attack them because they can rely on the United States to use its political power over

17:41Israel to try to restrain Israel. When you live in a tough neighborhood, you can't keep taking blows

17:46in the face and not responding. And sometimes we live in such relative safety and comfort here in

17:51Washington, we forget those basic facts. So if we want peace in the Middle East, which we all want,

17:57we've wanted for a long time, you got to understand who the number one culprit is behind what's going

18:02on is the Islamic Republic of Iran. And you got to understand that this regime is not like us.

18:07And that when you think you're extending a hand of friendship in moderation and you're

18:11being reasonable, you're actually signaling weakness and you're going to get more of the

18:14same. And when you're when your best friend in the region, Israel, your most reliable partners

18:19experience their worst day, you don't join its enemies in criticizing them. You stand with your

18:24best friend, its moment of need. And that's when people find out who their true friends are.

18:29Brad Bowman, I appreciate the conversation today. Thank you so much for joining me.

18:34Thank you for the opportunity. I appreciate it.

Hamas Political Chief Killed In Iran — Here's What That Means For Israel And The War In Gaza

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