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00:00Good evening and welcome to The Big Story.
00:07Now the monsoon has wreaked mayhem across India from Himachal Pradesh to Uttarakhand
00:12in the north to Wayanad in Kerala.
00:14The scale of destruction is horrifying.
00:17Is climate change the only reason for this devastation or is unplanned and aggressive
00:22construction also leading to the magnification of natural calamities?
00:27We discuss this on The Big Story this evening.
00:30Now let's start with Uttarakhand.
00:32200 pilgrims are stranded on the Kedarnath route.
00:36Tragically the relentless downpour has claimed at least 11 lives so far and 5 are reported
00:42missing.
00:43Now the pilgrims who were on the Kedarnath Yatra have been stopped at the Bheem Bali
00:47Garhwal Mandal Vikas Nigam complex after a section of their walking path was washed away.
00:55In Himachal Pradesh a tragic situation is unfolding following the devastating cloud
01:01burst in Shimla, Mandi and Kullu.
01:04Now two people have lost their lives and at least 50 others are reported missing.
01:09The cloud bursts have caused extensive damage across these three districts with numerous
01:14homes, schools and hospitals that have been affected.
01:18Now this comes even as northwest India is bracing for intense monsoon weather over the
01:23next three days.
01:24The IMD has issued a red alert for certain areas in Himachal Pradesh.
01:30And down south the situation in Wayanad remains grim.
01:34More than 290 people have died and over 200 are still missing even as rescue operations
01:41are ongoing.
01:42Now satellite images show the devastation that has been caused by these landslides.
01:47The before and after images show that about 86,000 square meters of land slipped and the
01:54debris followed for about 8 kilometers along the Eruvai Pura river.
02:00I'm now joined, we'll go across to Pratibha our correspondent in Wayanad in just a bit
02:08but to begin with we are now joined by Anoop Nautiyal.
02:14He's a social worker from Uttarakhand and Abhilash S. he's the director of ACARR QSAT
02:20also joining us on the broadcast.
02:22Good evening.
02:23Thank you both of you for joining us.
02:26To begin with Mr. Nautiyal, give us a sense of how bad the situation in Uttarakhand is.
02:33You live there.
02:34Also, this seems to be becoming almost an yearly affair, you know, with cloudbursts
02:40and landslides being blamed on climate change.
02:43But do you feel that there is more perhaps than it meets the eye?
02:48So, Nopur, your first question, how is the situation in Uttarakhand, I will say that
02:55it is horrifying and it is of course a matter of immense concern.
03:01But I think in the big picture, the sad reality is that this is what, you know, in the month
03:07of July and August, this has literally become like a repeat, you know, every monsoon we
03:13are going through the same visuals, we are going through the same stories and we are
03:17going through, you know, this entire saga of apathy, you know, a very, very casual attitude
03:22when it comes to, you know, everything linked around with that.
03:26When we look at the big picture, you know, because you started off another thing was
03:30with climate change.
03:32Is it only climate change?
03:33And along with climate change, I can attribute five C's.
03:36And of course, this holds very, very true for our country.
03:40But of course, you know, I speak here for Uttarakhand and the five C's are one of cement,
03:46concrete, construction, contractor and corruption.
03:50So it is these five C's that are defining the so-called development saga in Uttarakhand.
03:55And nobody is, of course, against development, but the kind of development that we are seeing,
04:01the so-called development that we are seeing, ironically, also another dimension to this
04:06whole landscape of development is the numerous reports that are, you know, coming from various
04:12experts, whether it is the melting glaciers, whether it is how roads are being made, how
04:17muck is being thrown, but there is not a single word, you know, from our government, from
04:22our authorities, as if, you know, they have just sort of taken this within themselves
04:27that this is something which is going to happen.
04:29Last year also, 2023 monsoon, you will recall and remember the horrifying visuals that came
04:36out of Himachal Pradesh, damages to the tune of 12,000 crore were attributed and Uttarakhand
04:42to more than 1000 crores.
04:43Then in the month of November, we had the infamous Silkyara tunnel where 41 men were
04:48trapped for 17 days.
04:49In the month of October, you had the Teesta floods in Sikkim and January last year began
04:55with Joshimath.
04:56In the monsoon of this year, when we are in the middle of the monsoon, from 15 June till
05:01today, in the last 45 days, 72 people have died, 168 are injured, more than 800 houses
05:08have been partially or fully destroyed, and countless roads in hundreds are closed.
05:14So this is the grim picture here in Uttarakhand.
05:18But as I said, that this is an annual feature.
05:21The only difference is that its intensity, its frequency, and its damages are increasing
05:27year by year, government authorities, bureaucrats, everyone is totally helpless.
05:34It's a very, very reactive attitude.
05:36And frankly, you know, what is it that they can do?
05:39Because they are driven by these five C's, as I mentioned earlier, of cement, concrete,
05:44construction, contractor, and corruption.
05:46One more thing, Nopur, I can add, and then, you know, of course, you will have other questions
05:51as well, Uttarakhand is also passing through a severe population explosion of sorts.
05:56And there are different ways in which we are looking at this population data, we are looking
06:00at how India has grown in the last 23 years, because the last two census we had were in
06:052011, 2001.
06:07From 2001 till today, while Indian population has increased by an estimated 40%, population
06:14in Uttarakhand has increased by 47%.
06:16The rate of population growth in Uttarakhand in the last five or seven years has been exceptionally
06:22high.
06:23And when we look at the state, there are hill areas, and there are plain areas.
06:26So this growth is not even.
06:28And it is three things which are fueling this.
06:30One is migration.
06:32The second is urbanization, and this whole phenomenon of carrying capacity.
06:36So net net, you know, many, many concerns, Nopur, which all get aggravated in the months
06:41of July and August.
06:42All right.
06:44So what you seem to describe is a mammoth problem with little solutions coming to it
06:49so far.
06:50I'm going to come back to you, Mr. Nautiyal.
06:53Coming to you, Mr. Abhilash, now, earlier on, when we were speaking, you seem to suggest
06:58that climate change is something that's upon us.
07:02And what we are seeing in Kerala is a result of that the frequency and the amount of rain
07:07that is falling there is unprecedented.
07:09And this is something that your research is suggesting.
07:12So take us through what are the main pointers of what you've delved into?
07:18Yeah, this is a sympathetic situation here in Wayanad as well, because this type of event
07:28normally occur in Himalayan, sub-Himalayan region.
07:31But if you look at recent GSI report, the total number of landslides during 2015 to
07:392022, almost like all over India, there were like 3,500 landslides.
07:47It is just a formal record of landslides from GSI combined with NRSI.
07:53They are suggesting out of this 2,200 plus landslides have occurred in Kerala.
08:01Then you can just count on this, how Kerala is becoming a fragile zone to this type of
08:08landslide events.
08:09So if you look at our research, mainly focused on this, towards this landslide and what are
08:14the causes, climate factors to this, we found that if you look at a 2019 case, so this 2019
08:22landslide occurred almost close to this Mundakai event, which is close to this Puttumada.
08:30It is almost like two, three kilometers, just two, three kilometers away from Puttumada.
08:35So that itself suggests that this land is highly susceptible to landslides.
08:41So in our studies, what we found is that earlier, if you look at the last 30 years of data,
08:49we have analyzed the last 30 years of data, most of the landslides along the West Coast,
08:55because West Coast, the Western Ghats, which is starting from Kerala all the way up to
09:02Gujarat, we find that most of this landslide hotspots were found earlier between Mangalapuram
09:10and Goa or up to Maharashtra.
09:14So that was the hotspot for landslides and that is mainly because the intense rainfall,
09:21the rain, extreme kind of rain events were happening in that belt.
09:26So that is what most of the landslides were concentrated along that belt.
09:31And that is why during monsoon season, we normally hear two, three landslide events
09:36along the Konkan region.
09:38That is where the Konkan Railway is running from Kerala all the way to Mumbai.
09:43So what in our study after 2019 Puttumada Kavalapala event, that also claimed almost
09:50like 40 plus people's lives.
09:53There what we found is that the Southeast Arabian Sea is becoming a breeding ground
09:59and a hotspot for deep development of cloud systems.
10:03So the cloud system in the Arabian Sea is getting more deeper, very close to the Kerala
10:08coast and covering the southern part of the Konkan region.
10:13That means that earlier hotspots over the northern part of the Konkan region is kindly
10:18expanding and shifting towards the Kerala region.
10:22That is making all this northern Kerala region more susceptible and more prone to this type
10:28of landslide events.
10:29So that was our finding in 2019 landslide event.
10:33And we were warning the authorities that this is going to be a common affair in Kerala.
10:39So the previous sir was telling about the Uttarakhand, how Uttarakhand after 2013 event,
10:46the biggest event in 2013, it is occurring very recurrently, means every year it is becoming
10:53more frequent.
10:54And when the monsoon draft passed towards the foothills of Himalaya, then almost all
11:02the times in a season, two, three times this monsoon will be getting active along the foothills
11:07of Himalaya.
11:08At that time, they are witnessing very big landslides associated with the cloudburst.
11:13The same situation is happening along the west coast, but the hotspot is slightly shifting
11:19towards the south.
11:20That is why Kerala is going to become a hotspot for this type of landslide event.
11:25That is why the GSI report till 2022 is showing that most of the landslide in numbers, if
11:31you look at the casualty may be slightly less compared to the Uttarakhand region, but the
11:36number of landslides have been increased over the Kerala region.
11:40That is mainly because of the changing pattern of the rainfall pattern associated with the
11:46changes in the structural changes in the cloud system.
11:49So if you look at the anywhere, if you look at the landslide susceptibility map and all,
11:54if you analyze…
11:55Absolutely.
11:56So what you are seeming to suggest, Mr. Abhilash, is that weather patterns are shifting and
12:01that is part of the problem.
12:04Apart from that, of course, we seem to be unprepared to deal with this kind of calamities.
12:08Mr. Nautiyal, if I could come to you on this one.
12:12So obviously there is the issue of climate change, but you have spoken about how humankind
12:19is also interfering in terms of the kind of construction we are doing, the population
12:25increase that we are seeing in certain areas.
12:28What are the ways that you think we can combat this now?
12:31Because the problem is upon us, we just have to deal with it now.
12:36So Nupur, before I come to answering what can be the potential solutions, since we were
12:42also speaking about landslides, so a brief mention here about a very important ISRO Landslide
12:48Atlas from last year, which came out in the public domain in March 2023.
12:54Now this particular atlas lists 147 districts across 17 states and two union territories
13:02in our country.
13:04The most landslide susceptible or sensitive district across the entire country is the
13:10district of Rudraprayag in the state of Uttarakhand.
13:13And Rudraprayag, just to share with your audience and our viewers, is the district that hosts
13:20the holy shrine of Kedarnath.
13:22Now so number one is Rudraprayag, number two is Tiri of the top 30 districts, six districts
13:28are from Uttarakhand.
13:29Now this is an ISRO report and it is such reports and there are several other reports
13:34and that there are coming from institutions like the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology,
13:39ISRO and so on and so forth.
13:42Now till the time there is, you know, it is not accepted and it is the government, it
13:49is both the central government as well as the state government that have to accept as
13:55to what kind of a development model do we really need in the Himalayas and in other
14:01vulnerable parts of the country like Kerala.
14:04I personally, you know, since we work with such issues, I'm convinced and I'm of the
14:09very strong belief that this has to be driven by the government.
14:14It is the government, you know, that has to lay down the frameworks.
14:17And of course, no one is saying that don't do any development, but what kind of development
14:22is suitable for what region in the Himalayas or be it the Western Ghats needs to be articulated
14:29in very, very clear fashion, not only articulated, but also implemented.
14:34Another important thing to understand is really where is the problem?
14:38What actually is the problem?
14:40And one of the genesis of this problem, at least I feel and what I have observed here
14:46is this mad rush to double the GDP.
14:50For instance, in Uttarakhand, our GSDP is about 300,000 crore.
14:56So the state wants to double the GDP.
14:59Now, in order to double the GDP, there is a slew of these development projects, you
15:05know, be it infrastructure projects, be it railroad projects.
15:09So these are all capital intensive projects and at the cost of be it climate or at the
15:15cost of disasters.
15:17So I think this whole landscape of what kind of a development model is suitable.
15:23The last thing, Nupur, I want to mention, because I know that we're running out of time.
15:27It's of course very, very sad.
15:28I also want to offer my condolences to people in Kerala, in Wayanad, for the ones who are
15:33dead or who are missing.
15:36Now the Madhav Gadgil report, the noted, you know, geologist, ecologist who gave a slew
15:42of recommendations to both the center and the state and yet nothing happened, you know.
15:47So this really is the tragedy of the Himalayas, of the Western Ghats and of our country as
15:53a whole in this era of climate change.
15:57And if I may add, human arrogance, human folly, and of course, this cavalier attitude.
16:05Oh, yes, absolutely.
16:08As you're pointing out, of course, it does appear that there can be solutions.
16:13But as of now, you know, the governments, both at the center and the state are not looking,
16:18we're only looking to do stopgap arrangements, not really looking at the whole, huge, entire
16:24framework.
16:25Any last words, Mr. Abhilash, that you'd like to add upon this?
16:28What is the way forward?
16:30How can we take care of this?
16:33Yeah, only way to, means adapt to this situation is, we cannot stop this type of cloudburst
16:41event in future because it is happening all over the world in response to climate change
16:46and global warming.
16:47So, we cannot stop that.
16:48Only way out of this is that we have to make our environment and our landscape more, means
16:57more healthier to accommodate for this situation.
17:02If you look at the, most of this landslide, whether it is happening in the Sub-Himalayan
17:08regions, Uttarakhand, Kedarnath or other regions in the Himalayan belt or in the Western Ghats,
17:15it is the triggering mechanism, though the primary triggering mechanism is the rainfall
17:20because the rainfall, most of the landslide is being induced, at least in Western Ghats,
17:26most of this landslide, 90%, 95% of the landslides are being triggered by rainfall.
17:32But being said that, this is, rainfall is just a triggering mechanism.
17:37If you look at the Kerala landslide or the Uttarakhand landslide, the devastation, the
17:42scale of its impact is being exaggerated with the human interventions because if you look
17:51at the landslide, especially in the Kerala landslide, the landslide triggered from a
18:00mountainous region, which is not accessible to the human, it started from a forest area,
18:06but all the way it came down to a village where people were living there.
18:13So the entire stream, because if you look at that entire landscape area, there is not
18:18much intervention at the uphills where virgin forests are there, but along the way, along
18:26the path of this debris flow, there are a lot of buildings, a lot of changes in the
18:31landscape.
18:32They are changing the streams, they are cutting the streams, pastoral streams have been modified
18:37for developmental activities, they are following monocropping culture, they are cutting the
18:42large forest area, the native trees they are cutting.
18:45So these are some of the contributing factors which determines the scale of the impact.
18:51Though it is driven by the rainfall, the other anthropogenic and human intervention is the
18:57main reason for its bigger impact, the large scale impact.
19:01So that is what my opinion.
19:03Absolutely.
19:04Absolutely.
19:05So as you're pointing out, we can't change the weather at this point in time, but we
19:08can definitely try and contain the impacts of it.
19:12Both of you, thank you very much for joining us on The Big Story this evening on NDTV Property.