Best Strategy for Betting Awards with Big Favorites
How important is a list of runner-ups when betting awards? Ken Barkley breaks it down in the wake of the Justin Herbert injury
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00:00Sort of like Paul Skeens with NL Rookie of the Year.
00:03Even if you know that he's the favorite and that he should be, it's okay to, in your brain,
00:08at least have the order of, well, what if he got shelled in his next outing?
00:11Like, who would I want to bet on?
00:13Like, would I want Jackson Merrill or Mason Wynn or one of these other position players?
00:17Jackson Shurio for the Brewers, who's played really well the last, like, month, month and
00:20a half?
00:21Like, who, what would be my first click if Paul Skeens, uh, things suddenly went off
00:25the rails in a variety of ways?
00:27So you're never going to bet that unless the thing happens, but you want to be ready
00:30in case the thing happens.
00:31Well, what's wrong with having your second tier of comeback player of the year candidates
00:36in case Rogers just like, it doesn't materialize.
00:38There's not very good.
00:39And he's yelling to Garrett Wilson all the time and they're losing games.
00:42And Kirk Cousins doesn't come back really well from his Achilles injury.
00:45And you know, Joe Burrow, who's come back from injury before, maybe voters are looking
00:50for somebody different.
00:51Maybe it's, it's, you know, Hey, we've already kind of done this with him before.
00:53And his upside is to win MVP.
00:55That's not really what this award is about.
00:57It's more for kind of like a second tier player or something like that.
01:00You know, this is where somebody like Nick Chubb comes into play, who had a devastating
01:03leg injury.
01:04And you know, if he could end up coming back and playing really well, the same price Dobbins
01:08and Chubb possibly.
01:09Yeah.
01:10I think, I think that's a very reasonable case.
01:12So that's, that's more how I'd look at it is 30, right?
01:16I think that is a very reasonable argument to make.
01:19And again, it's not who's going to win and it's not even saying the favorites shouldn't
01:23be the favorites.
01:24But I always think backup plans are a great idea because when things start going wrong
01:28and you're watching games on Sundays and a guy gets hurt and there's a lot of panic and
01:32everybody's tweeting, it's really easy to get wrapped up in whatever everybody else
01:36is saying.
01:37If you've never thought about it before, but whenever, when something happens, knowing,
01:41you know, where, where are you going to click?
01:43What button are you going to hit?
01:44Like, you know, that going in, then it's like, you've trained your brain already to not get
01:48wrapped up in.
01:49Well, the guy I follow on Twitter with a hundred thousand followers says to bet this guy, there's
01:52actually, there's a dynamic that's going to unfold like this in baseball with Jack
01:56Flaherty getting traded.
01:58If AL comeback player of the year ever gets reopened, he was one of the very heavy co-favorites
02:02to win the award along with another pitcher who's not going to pitch very much at the
02:05rest of the year, Garrett Crochet.
02:07And I think everybody there, even people with a lot of followers who were like, just went
02:11to the third name was like, that's the guy that has to be valuable.
02:15And if you had no idea what was going on, you might think that you might be like, well,
02:19yeah, for the guy, number one, probably not going to win guy.
02:21Number two traded.
02:22And then the third guy must be the bet and be like, that's because you haven't thought
02:25about it.
02:26That's because you're getting wrapped up in what that guy is saying.
02:27Oh, well, the third guy has to be the bet.
02:28Cause it's like, well, have you thought about it?
02:30Maybe there are guys way further down that are actually a really good idea.
02:33If the first two guys.
02:34So having the plan, knowing like, all right, if that guy gets traded or if that guy gets
02:37hurt or if that doesn't work out, what happens in that contingency?
02:41I mean, there is some of the best like award winnings.
02:45Some of the best money making has come from having the right answer to that as opposed
02:49to, oh, like I, I go with the crowd and I go with whatever everybody thinks when a guy
02:54gets hurt or whatever, everybody, I mean, how many times are these people, right?
02:57You know, there's a reason they don't bet.
02:58There's a reason why, you know, like they, they'd be rich if they could do this stuff
03:01and it's hard to do.
03:02I like, I don't do it right all the time, but having the plan going in as a really,
03:05really good idea.
03:06I think having that plan of, Hey, you know, if the quarterbacks just aren't sticking as
03:10candidates for comeback player of the year due to team performance, individual performance,
03:15whatever it is.
03:16Yeah.
03:17Having that list of like, you know, these three or four guys are pretty interesting
03:20if that happens.
03:21I think Dobbins can definitely be one of those guys.