23 जुलाई को देश का बजट पेश किया गया था. जिसमें इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी को कम कर दिया गया था. इसके बाद से ही सोने में गिरावट देखी जा रही है. तो क्या अब सोने की कीमतें और नीचे जा सकती है या आपको सोना खरीदने का ये बेस्ट टाइम है. आपको क्या करना चाहिए? समझिए पृथ्वी फिनमार्ट के डायरेक्टर मनोज जैन जी से.
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#goldrate #gold #goldprice #goldforecast #silverprice #silverrate #Silver #GoldPrediction #24kgold #22kGold #GoldRateNews #GoldPriceNews #GoldRateToday #GoldPriceToday #SilverRateToday #SilverPriceToday #BreakingNews #GoldvsSilver #SilverInvestment #SilverRate #SilverPrediction #SilverOutlook #SilverForecast
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar, my name is Digvijay Singh. Welcome to GoodReturns.
00:03After the Lok Sabha elections, the budget, and the policy of the US central bank,
00:07we are seeing a lot of action in the bullion market.
00:11Even today, on the 1st of August, there is a lot of activity in gold and silver.
00:16There is also a festive season ahead.
00:18In this situation, what strategy should be made for gold?
00:21Should investors wait for the right time?
00:23Or is this the right time to invest?
00:26We will know the answer to all these questions.
00:27We have with us the expert of the commodity market and the director of Prithvi Finmark, Manoj Kumar Jain.
00:33Sir, welcome to this special video.
00:35It is the first day of the new month.
00:37There is a lot of activity in gold.
00:39On MCX, gold is trading at around Rs. 70,000.
00:43And in the global market, it is trading at around Rs. 2,500 per ounce.
00:49What is the trigger for today or the activity that we are seeing?
00:53Is this the trigger or is there any other trigger in September?
00:59Namaskar, Mr. Digvijay.
01:00First of all, I would like to thank you for inviting me to the show.
01:03And now, we will talk about the background of the activity in gold.
01:09In July, we saw gold trading at lifetime highs in the international market.
01:15And till $2488, the price of gold reached the international market.
01:21After that, we saw that when the budget announcement was made in the Indian market,
01:25the import duty was cut by 9% irrevocably.
01:32As a result, the prices in the Indian market were trading at around Rs. 75,000.
01:37It fell to around Rs. 67,000.
01:40Today, with the announcement of the duty cut in the budget,
01:43we saw that China's economic data was also weaker than expected.
01:48China's central bank paused gold buying for the third month in a row.
01:54Due to this big trigger, we saw a panic in gold in the international market and the Indian market.
02:01But here, we can see a big change in the fundamentals at the beginning of the new month.
02:08Yesterday, the policy of Bank of Japan increased the interest rates by 15 basis points.
02:17The interest rates increased by 0.25%.
02:21After that, we saw that the Japanese yen increased and the dollar index was weak.
02:27In addition, the 10-year bond rates of the US were also seen to be weak.
02:32Yesterday, there was a policy meeting of the US Fed.
02:35The US Fed did not make any changes in policy or interest rates.
02:39But the Fed chairman issued a statement that
02:43the US Fed is comfortable with the economic figures.
02:49The next policy meeting, which is to be held in September,
02:52will probably see a cut in the US Fed's interest rates.
02:58Due to this, the market took this sentiment positively.
03:02Today, the price of gold in the international market was tested at $2,500.
03:07In the Indian market as well, we are seeing prices exceeding $70,000.
03:12Another major reason behind the support in prices is that the medallists have increased tensions.
03:19Yesterday, the target killing of the Hamas chief in Iran was said to be retaliated by Iran.
03:28So, due to increasing geopolitical tensions, the safe haven appeal in gold is increasing.
03:34Today, we are seeing a good increase in the prices of gold.
03:37We are seeing the impact of this global factor.
03:41We have seen the impact of the duty cut in the budget for the next few days.
03:47Has the market cashed in?
03:49Or will we see its impact in the long term as well?
03:52The duty cut has been seen to be factoring in prices.
03:58Due to this, we have seen the prices of around $75,000 go down to $67,000.
04:04So, the effect of the duty cut has already been factoring in the market.
04:09Secondly, what will be the cascading effect of this in the coming time?
04:13The duty cut will definitely have a positive effect in the Indian market in the coming time.
04:20The reason for this is that investors who were not able to buy gold for a long time due to high prices,
04:28have now got a chance to invest.
04:30Secondly, the festival season will begin with the Raksha Bandhan.
04:34After that, there will be a merry season as well.
04:36So, the demand will definitely increase.
04:38The World Gold Council report has also clearly stated that the demand for gold in India has increased.
04:49So, if we talk about the next 6 months, the demand for gold in the Indian market will definitely increase.
05:01The demand will increase.
05:03The festive season is approaching.
05:05The wedding season will also begin.
05:08There will be a good demand for gold, be it jewelry or anything else.
05:12So, what outlook are you looking at?
05:14If we talk about the festive season, how much gold will increase?
05:22If I look at gold, if we talk about the Diwali season, which will be in November,
05:32if we talk about the next 3 months, the price of gold in the international market will increase from $2,600 to $2,650.
05:39This means that there will be an increase of 5% to 6% in the international market.
05:45If we talk about the Indian market, the price will increase to $73,000 by Diwali.
05:52So, there is a good chance of an increase.
05:55The increase of around Rs.3,000 in the Indian market can be seen by Diwali.
06:00At the beginning of the year, we saw a strong increase in gold.
06:04The price reached around Rs.75,000.
06:07At that time, the expert and brokerage houses were bullish.
06:11They were giving a target of Rs.1 lakh by the end of the year.
06:15Is there a chance of going up to Rs.1 lakh?
06:17Or will we have to wait for a long time?
06:19Will there be any change in this direction?
06:21No, we did not talk about Rs.1 lakh for gold by the end of the year.
06:24We had given a target of Rs.80,000.
06:27A lot of brokerages had given a target of Rs.80,000 by the end of 2024.
06:32The target of Rs.1 lakh was set for 2026-2027.
06:36So, there is no change in this direction.
06:38If we look at the prices of the international market today,
06:41if the duty had not been cut, we would have been around Rs.77,000.
06:45Since the duty has been cut, we believe that by the end of this year,
06:50we will be able to see prices of up to Rs.76,000 in the Indian market.
06:57If we talk about the next 2-3 years,
07:00then we will definitely see prices of up to Rs.1 lakh in gold.
07:05The international market is also talking about prices of up to $3,500.
07:11We can see that the rate cut cycle has already started.
07:15The US Fed will also be involved in the next 1-2 months.
07:19So, definitely, the bullish momentum of gold will continue for the next 2-3 years.
07:24This is what we believe.
07:27The international factors are also supporting this.
07:31If the bull run of gold continues,
07:34if investors have the option of investing in gold,
07:40which option will be better for investors?
07:45All options are better.
07:47It depends on the horizon of the investor and his risk appetite.
07:53For long-term investors who do not want physical gold,
07:58do not want jewelry, and only want to invest,
08:01the Sovereign Gold Bond is the best option.
08:04You get 2.5% annual interest there.
08:08After 8 years of maturity, you do not have to pay any capital gains tax.
08:15So, for long-term investors, the Sovereign Gold Bond is better.
08:20For small investors who want to invest and do not want physical gold,
08:25the ETF is a better option.
08:28You can start investing with a small amount of Rs.60.
08:34For small investors who want to invest in SIP,
08:39the ETF is better.
08:42For those who want to invest in delivery,
08:45do not want jewelry, but want to invest in delivery,
08:48they can open a Demat account in the MCX futures contract.
08:55They can take delivery in MCX Demat,
08:58so that when they get good returns,
09:00they can deliver the delivery there.
09:02It depends on the horizon of the investor and their risk appetite.
09:07All the available options for investment are better.
09:11Apart from gold, we are also seeing a sharp rise in silver.
09:14What is the outlook on silver?
09:15How far will it go in this festive season or this year?
09:18What is your outlook on silver?
09:21We had said that this time it will go beyond Rs.100,000.
09:25We had seen silver going very close to Rs.100,000.
09:30In the Indian markets, we saw silver reaching Rs.98,000.
09:34If I talk about the active contract of September,
09:37and after that we saw an unexpected duty cut.
09:41Because of that, we saw that the prices
09:43were almost at Rs.80,000 in the Indian markets.
09:47Secondly, as I mentioned earlier,
09:50China is a big factor.
09:52Because silver is also an industrial metal.
09:55The economic figures in China are continuously deteriorating.
09:58The GDP growth of the second quarter was reduced to 4.7%.
10:03We were expecting a stimulus from there.
10:07If we talk about the market,
10:09we did not see any stimulus from China.
10:13Because of that, we saw that there was pressure in the overall industrial metals.
10:17It also had an effect on the prices of silver.
10:20In the international market, the prices were
10:22slipping below $27 last month.
10:26But now we are seeing how the Bank of Japan
10:29has increased the interest rates.
10:31We saw a weakness in the dollar index.
10:33The possibility of a cut in the interest rates
10:35was shown by the US Fed.
10:37ECB and Bank of Canada have already
10:39cut the interest rates.
10:41So in the coming time,
10:43we will definitely see a recovery in the industrial metals.
10:46Its support will be seen in silver as well.
10:49We believe that if we talk about the festive season till Diwali,
10:53it will be $30.40 in the international market.
10:56And in the Indian markets,
10:58it will be $88,000 in the next 2-3 months.
11:02If I talk about the end of the year,
11:05it will be $31-32 in the international market.
11:09And in the Indian markets,
11:11it will be $92,000 by the end of this year.
11:15So there is a possibility of an increase of 10%
11:19by the end of this year in the prices of silver.
11:22For both silver and gold,
11:24there is a clear path for bull run.
11:26So investors should buy at the present time.
11:29Whatever options are there,
11:31they should buy.
11:33Absolutely.
11:35Thank you so much, sir.
11:37Thank you.