Astros vs Rays: Playoff Implications & Pitching Analysis
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00:00And two teams looking to make the playoffs, say what you want about the Rays, they're typically
00:03in it to win it. And the Houston Astros making some moves because now it looks like they have
00:08a legitimate chance to win the AL West. Let's take a look at the odds market here. Houston will be
00:12home today a minus 156 price and a total that's listed at eight. Baz will be on the mound here
00:18today for those Rays and Yusei Kikuchi in the first start for the Houston Astros. Now when we
00:23were going over those numbers on XFIT minus, you might look or hear that name Yusei Kikuchi and
00:28say that's just a run of the mill pitcher in Major League Baseball. Now also, here's what's
00:32crazy about his statistics. His XFIT minus numbers, guys, is an 81. That's second on the card today.
00:38That is sensational. He's got a 6.20 ERA. He's like, these numbers don't make sense. So the
00:44eye test isn't matching up with what actually analytically is coming back for us. He has a
00:48very good XFIT number, a very good Sierra. The only thing bad is the ERA overall himself. But
00:54also, if we're looking at the past 30 days, 122 batters that he's faced, maybe he is getting a
00:58little bit unlucky because ISO power numbers are 171 to lefty and righties combined and a weighted
01:04on baseball centers of 344. Those are basically average numbers. But here's the issue that comes
01:09up so many times. If you do have a pitcher that you feel is susceptible and if you just look at
01:12ERA at 6.20, which I don't, you're looking to fade Kikuchi. But what is that offensive lineup
01:18on the opposing team going to do and how they fare against, let's just say, left-handed pitching?
01:22Well, let's find out right now. The Tampa Bay Rays last 30 days, abysmal against left-handed
01:29pitchers. If you're looking at Yandy Diaz, who's going to lead off, only 17 to bats he's had over
01:33the past 30 days against lefties. Look at these numbers. 562 ISO, 669 weighted on base percentage,
01:39crushing the baseball. Maybe he can be on your card, but look behind him here. Curtis Meade,
01:45083 ISO power number. Christopher Morrell, zero ISO power number. Johnny DeLuca, 053 ISO power
01:53number. Caballero, 100 ISO power number. Carlson, 062. Walls, zero. There's not much help that
02:01you're getting in this lineup. So if you say, even though we're going to stack every single
02:05one of these batters from the right-hand side, I don't know how much they're going to be able
02:08to produce. And also keep in mind, Houston's a great hitter's ballpark, but you still need the
02:12batters to sort of take care of that and have the advantage in their favor. They don't have that.
02:17Let's take a look at Shane Baz on the opposite side. I don't know if he has a full 60 days
02:22that we can get in with a minimum of 20 innings, and we don't have that. But if we're looking at
02:26his last 85 batters that he did face, ISO power number against is a 118. That's not bad. Weighted
02:32on base percentage, 314. That's not bad. But where he gets himself into trouble is left-handed
02:37batters, guys. A 205 ISO against and a 385 weighted on base percentage. So if we're looking at the
02:43lineup to say, where's my guy? Usually it's going to be Jordan Alvarez. But at this point right now,
02:5050 at-bats he's had against right-handed pitching over the past month as a left-handed batter,
02:54he's only got a 119 ISO power number. That's well below the average. He does have an average weighted
02:59on base percentage. But to be honest, I look at this game overall myself and say, it probably
03:04leans more towards the under than it does an over just because of that matchup from
03:08Kikuchi, the left-handed pitcher, pitching over to the Rays at that point.