Attritional fight akin to WWI: Russia making 'steady incremental advance' in Ukraine's north, south
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00:00Next, Russia declares a state of emergency in its Kursk region on day three of a Ukrainian
00:06incursion.
00:07The story coming through via the filter of the Kremlin has it that Vladimir Putin, the
00:11man who launched, of course, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and who
00:15has maintained air and missile strikes ever since, as well as trench warfare in eastern
00:20Donbass, Putin is denouncing a major provocation.
00:24Brian Quinn has this.
00:28According to the Kremlin, the highlighted areas in these images indicate Ukrainian army
00:32positions within the southwest Russian region of Kursk before their hit with artillery.
00:38This Russian military handout claims to show a helicopter attacking yet more Ukrainian
00:42forces in Kursk.
00:44In a video meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Russia's top general vowed to crush
00:48what appears to be a major raid by Ukrainian troops into Russian territory.
00:54Airstrikes, missile forces and artillery fire stopped the enemy's advance inland into Russian
01:00territory towards Kursk.
01:03Putin called it a large-scale provocation as he convened a number of emergency government
01:08meetings.
01:09Though it's not Ukraine's first military operation inside Russia, the incursion marks the first
01:14time regular Ukrainian army troops have taken part.
01:17Moscow says up to a thousand Ukrainian soldiers, along with dozens of tanks and armored vehicles,
01:23crossed the border north of the Ukrainian town of Sumy, with one line of attack making
01:27significant headway towards the Russian town of Suja.
01:30Kremlin sources say Ukrainian shelling has killed several civilians in Suja and forced
01:35thousands more to evacuate.
01:38Kiev has yet to comment on the situation beyond a subtle reference from President Volodymyr
01:43Zelensky on Wednesday.
01:45The more pressure exerted on Russia, on the aggressor that brought the war to Ukraine,
01:50the closer peace will be.
01:52First peace through just force.
01:56Analysts have questioned the wisdom of such an operation at a moment when Ukrainian troops
02:01are already overstretched and outgunned along the lines of Russia's invasion inside their
02:06own territory.
02:07Washington, Kiev's top military and financial backer, says it is seeking clarification from
02:13Ukrainian leaders about their objectives.
02:17Brian Quinn with that report.
02:18Let's get the analysis.
02:19Frank Lowbridge is standing by, former UK military intelligence officer and senior lecturer
02:23in strategy at Portsmouth University.
02:25Frank, always a pleasure to have you on France 24.
02:28We need your clarity on this situation.
02:29How do you read it?
02:30Well, good evening, Mark.
02:33It's quite significant.
02:34Of course, this is the first time that Ukrainian military, as opposed to Russian dissidents,
02:39have entered Russia, invaded Russia effectively.
02:42But then the mystery remains, well, what's the purpose of this?
02:44And I think there are three broad reasons put forward by analysts.
02:48The first is that this was, or this is, to provide leverage in terms of land, to get
02:53some land, to catch some land, to exchange that further, effectively exchange it further
02:58along the line, particularly in November when Zelensky is planning a peace conference to
03:04which Russia should be invited.
03:05That's a possibility.
03:07The second, and attached to that, is to demonstrate the capability to do that at a time when,
03:11as your report said, they're under really, really firm pressure in the south.
03:16The second reason is that this is some diversion in order to pull forces away from the south
03:20and east.
03:21I don't think that's a runner at all.
03:25Russians have plenty in terms of numbers and equipment.
03:27And the third, and I think the most credible reason, is that this was a preemptive assault,
03:33to preempt a potential attack by Russian forces into Sumy itself.
03:37We've had some hints about that.
03:39And to disrupt what would have been a very damaging operation on the part of Russia.
03:43In other words, to get the jump on them.
03:45I think that's the most likely, but who knows?
03:48The answer is nobody.
03:49Not even, apparently, the Americans.
03:52That is interesting because it has been said in certain quarters the Americans didn't know
03:55about this.
03:57What is that telling us about Kiev-Washington relations?
03:59Well, if they didn't know that, it's A, surprising, and B, for the Americans at least, and indeed
04:06the rest of the West, it's not a good message.
04:09I think in an alliance like this, where Ukraine is essentially wholly supported, armed, financed,
04:18and provided with intelligence information, there has to be a high level of mutual trust.
04:24If the Ukraine is conducting a major and highly politically sensitive operation into Russia
04:28without telling their allies, I don't know whether that's the case, but if it is, it's
04:33a bad message.
04:36It shows, I think, a lack of that mutual understanding that's essential amongst allies.
04:41But like I say, we don't really know who knew what.
04:44If they did do that without Western support, what they will have done, of course, is use
04:47Western-supplied intelligence, as well as the Western-supplied kit that we see in plenty
04:52in Russia at the moment.
04:54So I suspect the Americans knew no more than they're saying, but we just don't know.
05:00Vladimir Putin clearly declaring an emergency in Kursk.
05:06This is telling us something about how seriously Russia is taking this situation.
05:10Do you think in some way this has exposed certain weaknesses in Russia's planning?
05:15Absolutely.
05:16It's extremely embarrassing.
05:17The Ukrainians have done to the Russians, once again, what they did nearly two years
05:22ago in the Kharkiv region, when they found a likely defended border.
05:26That doesn't mean, by the way, there are no Russian troops well behind that border.
05:29If they were planning an assault on Sumy, those troops will not have been on the border.
05:33But nonetheless, they found a likely defended part of the border.
05:36They swept through and exploited that weakness.
05:39However, whatever the reason for the attack, what's going to happen now very clearly is
05:44that Russia will begin counterattacking, either with the forces they have in place, perhaps
05:49100 or so kilometers back.
05:51Those will start arriving pretty soon, or with the units that will be brought in to
05:57engage the Ukrainians, who are, right as we speak, still making some progress.
06:02I think some of them are beginning to dig in, in expectation of that counterattack.
06:07Still making progress.
06:08Putin, we always hear, has the numbers, has the troops, but is it likely he'll call on
06:12some of his axis to provide some hardware, some personnel?
06:16I'm talking North Korea, Iran, obviously the Central Asian mercenaries that can be called
06:21upon.
06:22I don't think, no more than that's been happening already.
06:25I mean, there's supposed to be a North Korean brigade of engineers in the south already,
06:29or at least I think they're probably being deployed around now.
06:31They were announced two or three months ago.
06:33They're getting plenty of ammunition off the North Koreans, at least, and other so-called
06:38allies, but particularly North Korea.
06:40No, they won't need manpower.
06:42They've plenty of manpower, and at the moment, plenty of equipment, as General Sierski said
06:45two weeks ago.
06:47So the key issue here is the speed with which Ukraines were able to advance, and the strategic
06:53surprise that they've demonstrated.
06:57So Ukraine making this swoop pre-emptive, it could be, as you're saying, Frank, and
07:02that does make sense, doesn't it, completely.
07:04Washington in the dark or not, we don't really know, do we?
07:07It's one of those things.
07:09But clearly what is happening in the US now politically must be weighing on Vladimir Zelensky's
07:14mind.
07:15Absolutely.
07:16It's not simply the fear, and I think it is fear that Trump might be elected, but there's
07:20the awareness, I think, that there's a certain ennui creeping into the United States with
07:25respect to this war, especially, of course, against the background of what seems to be
07:29an increasingly likely escalation, at least, in the Middle East.
07:32And what the Americans don't want, they don't want either of these conflicts, frankly.
07:36Their priority, and certainly the military priority of the US military, is nowhere near
07:40that.
07:41It's in the Western Pacific.
07:43So I think not only amongst the electorate of the United States, but also, I think, amongst
07:48its administration, its military, they want to get both of these wars dealt with.
07:53That's to say, the Middle East and Ukraine at that strategic level.
07:57And I think Zelensky is aware of that, and what they're trying to do is get as much advantage
08:01as they possibly can.
08:02Of course, one thing we haven't really discussed yet is the situation in the South, which for
08:06Ukraine, it's not critical, but it's very, very shaky.
08:10It's very poor there in the South.
08:11They're losing land every day, and that's the center of gravity here.
08:16That's the real fight down there.
08:18Everything else is essentially almost a distraction from the main effort and that main center
08:25of gravity, which is manpower and attritional warfare.
08:28That was going to be my next question about the South, Frank.
08:32You've gone there already.
08:33So please tell us more.
08:34Well, over the last couple of weeks, particularly, Ukraine has become under pressure in the area
08:40of Pokrovsk, where the Russians have been making incremental but considerable progress.
08:46Now, we're not talking about kilometers a day, although one or two days there were kilometers
08:50advances, but it's an incremental advance, a couple of hundred meters now, a part of
08:54a village there.
08:55They'll take a small settlement.
08:56But the important thing is they're starting to break through Ukrainian defenses down on
09:00that southern front in Donetsk.
09:03Not too far.
09:04Well, I say not too far.
09:05It's 30 kilometers or so from Avdivka.
09:07But much more importantly, 10 kilometers, 15 kilometers from Pokrovsk.
09:12So we'll look out for that name over the next few weeks as the Russians creep closer
09:16and perhaps enter that over the next, you know, the medium term.
09:20But also in the north, Chassy VR, we've not heard about for a long time, but the Russians
09:24are creeping and making progress up there in the north as well, and Pupyansk too.
09:29And these have been names on our lips now for the last six months or so, and they will
09:32continue to be.
09:34And sadly for the Ukrainians, they are being pushed back.
09:37I don't foresee any breakthrough.
09:40The Russians aren't capable of that.
09:41But there's a steady incremental advance in this attritional fight, a bit like the First
09:46World War, attritional fight in the south, which is where the main fighting is taking
09:51place.
09:52Frank Ledwidge, former UK military intelligence officer and lecturer, senior lecturer in strategy
09:57at Portsmouth University.
09:58It's always enlightening when you join us and thank you for the clarity you brought
10:02to what is an increasingly complex situation with Ukraine pushing into that Russian Kursk
10:07region.
10:08Frank Ledwidge.
10:10Thank you, Mark.
10:11Pleasure.
10:12We continue to watch, of course, all developments on the situation in Ukraine.