Astronaut Dhruv Rathee
Category
📚
LearningTranscript
00:00Hello, friends.
00:01On 13th April, 2029,
00:03an asteroid apophis bigger than 1000 feet
00:06will pass by the Earth.
00:14If it collides with the Earth,
00:16it will be a disaster
00:17that has never been seen in the history of mankind.
00:20The bomb dropped on Hiroshima
00:22will release 1 million times more energy.
00:25Tsunami waves will rise 100 meters high
00:31and the entire city will be cleansed.
00:33But that's not all.
00:34On 12th July, 2038,
00:36another asteroid can collide with the Earth.
00:38And look at this post.
00:40It has a 72% chance of colliding.
00:43NASA has already issued an alert
00:45and has started its planetary defense exercise.
00:48Look at this post ahead.
00:49It's only a few weeks old.
00:50After NASA's chief,
00:51now ISRO's chief has given a warning.
00:53We can all go extinct.
00:55Oh my God!
00:56An Earth-destroying asteroid
00:57is rapidly approaching the Earth.
01:00ISRO chief says
01:01it's an option to migrate to Mars
01:03and all global space agencies are working on it.
01:07How much truth is there in these news?
01:09Which are the most dangerous asteroids for the Earth?
01:13And what is NASA's plan here?
01:15Let's understand all this in depth
01:17in today's video.
01:24Asteroids
01:27Asteroids are also called planetoids.
01:30Because they are like small planets.
01:32They are basically some big stones
01:34that are orbiting in space.
01:35They can be 10-20 meters in size
01:37and can be 100-200 kilometers in size.
01:40The smallest asteroid that exists
01:42is only 2 meters wide.
01:44And the largest is called Ceres.
01:46It is 940 kilometers in diameter.
01:48Most of the asteroids in our solar system
01:51are found in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
01:54Where there are millions of asteroids.
01:57The drawing of the asteroid belt
01:59in our textbooks is done like this.
02:02Looking at it, you might think
02:04that these asteroids are orbiting around each other.
02:06But in reality, the average distance
02:08between any two asteroids
02:10is more than 1 million kilometers.
02:13Now what happens is
02:14sometimes these asteroids
02:15move away from this belt
02:17and come close to the Earth.
02:19In such cases, we call them near-Earth objects.
02:22In short, they are called NEOs.
02:25NEOs are not just asteroids.
02:27They can also be comets, meteors,
02:29meteorites and meteoroids.
02:32You might ask, what is the difference in all this?
02:34Friends, they are all pieces of stone
02:36that are flying in space.
02:38But the way we define them,
02:40there is a difference.
02:41For example, asteroids are made of stone and metal.
02:44Comets are made of ice, stone and dust.
02:47They are also called dirty snowballs.
02:49Asteroids are found in the belt
02:51between Mars and Jupiter.
02:52Comets are found in the Kuiper belt.
02:54This belt is in front of Neptune
02:56and is further away in the solar system.
02:58When comets fly in space,
03:00they have a tail behind them
03:01which is not seen in asteroids.
03:03Typically, the size of a comet can be very large.
03:05It can be 1 to 10 kilometers.
03:07And whenever a comet passes near the Earth,
03:09it can be easily seen with the naked eye.
03:11But to see asteroids,
03:13telescopes are needed in most cases.
03:15In the case of danger for us,
03:17a comet is far more dangerous than an asteroid.
03:19Because first of all,
03:20the speed of a comet is twice that of an asteroid.
03:23And secondly,
03:24the warning time is less.
03:25When a comet suddenly comes
03:27and impacts the Earth,
03:29we won't know for a long time, unfortunately.
03:31This was also shown in the film, Don't Look Up.
03:34In this film, it is shown
03:35how a 6-month warning time is given
03:37when a comet is about to hit the Earth.
03:40And how the government and space agencies
03:42react to it.
03:44A meteorite is a small piece of an asteroid or comet.
03:48When a meteorite comes close to the Earth
03:50and enters our atmosphere,
03:52we call that meteorite a meteor.
03:54When it happens,
03:55it burns very quickly
03:57and we see a streak of light.
03:59It is also called a shooting star
04:00if you have ever seen it in the sky.
04:02When it is in large numbers,
04:04it is called a meteor shower.
04:06And if a piece of a meteor
04:07crosses the atmosphere
04:09and falls on the Earth,
04:11it is called a meteorite.
04:13This is the only difference.
04:14The important thing for us here
04:16are the NEOs.
04:18Asteroids and comets
04:19that are passing by the Earth.
04:21Because of which we are in danger
04:23that they may crash on the Earth
04:25and destroy the entire world.
04:27This danger is justified
04:28because this has happened
04:30to dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
04:38If they can go extinct,
04:39so can we.
04:41But before measuring this danger,
04:42before moving ahead,
04:43I would like to say one thing.
04:45If you take your news
04:46from such accounts
04:47on Instagram and Facebook,
04:49it would be better
04:50if you stop following the news.
04:52Because this news of the 2038 asteroid strike
04:55is completely fake news.
04:59If you want to follow some pages
05:00on Instagram for news,
05:02then there are many options
05:03like The Hindu, Indian Express,
05:04Scroll.in, The Wire, News Laundry.
05:06Even our mainstream news websites.
05:08Although the standard of Indian media
05:10is not very good,
05:11but lies of this level
05:12are not spread there.
05:14Because look,
05:15Times of India has also written
05:16an article on this.
05:17In the headline, it is written
05:18NASA warns that a planet-sized asteroid
05:20has a 72% chance of impacting Earth.
05:23This headline is wrong.
05:25It is a click-baity headline.
05:26But if you read the first line
05:27of the article a little below,
05:29this has been clarified there.
05:31NASA recently conducted
05:33a hypothetical exercise
05:35to assess planet's preparedness
05:36against an asteroid impact.
05:38Actually, this 72% chance
05:40is not a finding or result.
05:42This is a hypothetical,
05:43imaginary scenario
05:44that NASA has created.
05:46This was an exercise
05:47that if today we come to know
05:49that in July 2038,
05:51an asteroid is going to fall on Earth,
05:54then what all can we do?
05:56This was a mock test
05:57in which more than 100 experts
05:58took part
05:59from different organizations.
06:01NASA, European Space Agency,
06:02UK Space Agency,
06:04United Nations Office
06:05of Outer Space Affairs.
06:06Everyone discussed that
06:08if an asteroid
06:09will hit the Earth
06:1014 years from today,
06:11then what all steps
06:12will we take to stop it?
06:14On June 20, 2024,
06:16NASA released this report
06:17in the public
06:18in which some very interesting
06:19things have been said.
06:20We will talk about them
06:21later in the video.
06:22But before that,
06:23I would like to tell you
06:24that the date of 2029,
06:25which I talked about
06:26at the beginning of the video,
06:27that date is not hypothetical.
06:29A huge apophis asteroid
06:30bigger than 1000 feet
06:32really exists.
06:34And this asteroid
06:35entered the Earth
06:36very, very close
06:37on April 13, 2029.
06:38Only 30,000 km away.
06:41It is less than
06:42many geostationary satellites.
06:44NASA released a video
06:46in which the exact path
06:47of this apophis asteroid
06:48is shown.
06:50The day after 5 years
06:51when this asteroid
06:52will pass by the Earth,
06:53you will not even need
06:54a telescope to see it.
06:56You will be able to see it
06:57directly with your own eyes
06:58at night.
06:59So the question is
07:00what is the chance
07:01that this asteroid
07:02will actually collide
07:03with the Earth?
07:04The answer is
07:050%.
07:08In 2004,
07:09when this asteroid
07:10was discovered for the first time
07:11by humans,
07:12there was a ruckus
07:13all over the world.
07:14Because the first observations
07:15that were made,
07:16they said that
07:17there is a 2.7% chance
07:18that this asteroid
07:19will collide with the Earth
07:20in 2029.
07:22Although,
07:232.7% chance
07:24is not that big.
07:25It means
07:26there is a 97% chance
07:27that it will not collide.
07:28But when the danger
07:29is so big,
07:30then 2% chance
07:31is also very scary.
07:32That's why in those years,
07:33this asteroid was called
07:34the city killer,
07:35the most dangerous asteroid.
07:38This is where
07:39its name came from,
07:40Apophis.
07:41Apophis is a very big snake
07:42in Egyptian mythology
07:43that destroys everything.
07:45It is also called
07:46the God of Chaos.
07:47But the good news is
07:48that when the scientists
07:49made more observations
07:50of this asteroid,
07:51they found out
07:52that in reality,
07:53there is a 0% chance
07:54that it will collide.
07:55A few years later,
07:56the scientists thought
07:57that not in 2029
07:58but when it will come
07:59back to Earth again,
08:00then the danger can increase.
08:01Like in 2036
08:02or 2068.
08:03Because in 2029,
08:04when it will pass
08:05very close to the Earth,
08:06then it will pass
08:07through a keyhole area.
08:09In space,
08:10keyholes are those places
08:11which are so close
08:12to the Earth
08:13that when an asteroid
08:14comes,
08:15the gravitational force
08:16of the Earth
08:17is affected.
08:18When in 2029,
08:19this asteroid will come
08:20so close to the Earth,
08:21then it will pass
08:22through a keyhole region
08:23due to which
08:24its orbit will change.
08:25Due to the gravitation
08:26of the Earth,
08:27its orbit will change
08:28due to which
08:29in 2036,
08:30the danger is more.
08:31The scientists were
08:32scared at one time
08:33but today,
08:34this is not a danger.
08:35Scientists have said
08:36that in the next 100 years,
08:37this asteroid will never
08:38collide with the Earth.
08:39For this reason,
08:40it has been removed
08:41from the risk list
08:42of near-Earth objects.
08:43Now you will say,
08:44what is this?
08:45Is there a risk list?
08:46Of course, there is.
08:47Space agencies
08:48around the world
08:49have made a risk list
08:50that which are the
08:51most dangerous asteroids
08:52in the near future.
08:53For example,
08:54on the website
08:55of the European Space Agency,
08:56look at this risk list.
08:57When can all these asteroids
08:58and comets
08:59collide?
09:00Which is written
09:01in impact,
09:02date and time.
09:03What is the probability
09:04of this asteroid
09:05colliding with the Earth?
09:06Look at this section
09:07of IPMAX.
09:08Maximum probability
09:09is written here.
09:10And in the section
09:11at the back,
09:12the diameter is written
09:13as to how big
09:14this asteroid or comet is.
09:15All this is the
09:16wonder of data science
09:17that today,
09:18we can so accurately
09:19predict the paths
09:20of all these asteroids.
09:21But not only
09:22space exploration,
09:23but data science
09:24is being used
09:25in a lot of different
09:26fields today.
09:27Automobile,
09:28finance,
09:29space exploration,
09:30media,
09:31healthcare.
09:32This is the reason
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10:33Let's come back
10:34to our topic
10:35and look at
10:36the top 3
10:37most dangerous
10:38asteroids in
10:39detail.
10:40Number 1 is
10:412023 VD3 asteroid.
10:42The name
10:432023 tells us
10:44that this asteroid
10:45was discovered
10:46in 2023.
10:47It is a very
10:48small asteroid
10:49in size.
10:50It is only
10:5111-24 metres
10:52in size.
10:53It can hit
10:54the earth
10:55on 8th November
10:562034.
10:57And the
10:58probability of
10:59hitting it is
11:000.25%
11:01in percentage.
11:02This is a
11:03very big chance
11:04actually.
11:05This is the
11:06reason why
11:07it is on
11:08number 1
11:09in the list.
11:10But because
11:11its size is
11:12very small,
11:13it is not
11:14that dangerous.
11:15The chances
11:16are that
11:17even if it
11:18hits the earth,
11:19it will fall
11:20on a place
11:21where there
11:22are no people
11:23and no damage
11:24will be done.
11:25In 2013,
11:26there was
11:27an incident
11:28when the
11:29meteorite
11:30hit the earth.
11:31It came
11:32out of nowhere.
11:33A bright
11:34speck in the sky
11:35soon streaking
11:36across the horizon
11:37followed by
11:38an almost
11:39apocalyptic scene.
11:40A blinding
11:41flash of light
11:42and then
11:43all hell
11:44broke loose.
11:45The diameter
11:46of the meteor
11:47was 20 metres
11:48and a very
11:49powerful shock
11:50wave was
11:51released.
11:52Some buildings
11:53were damaged,
11:54some people
11:55were injured
11:56but no one
11:57died.
11:59Most of them
12:00suffered cuts
12:01from shattered
12:02windows.
12:29Number 3 is
12:30Asteroid 2008
12:31JL-3.
12:32Estimated
12:33diameter
12:3423-50 metres
12:35potential
12:36impact date
12:371st May
12:382027
12:39and probability
12:40of impact
12:411 in
12:426,711.
12:43This is
12:440.01%
12:45chance of
12:46collision.
12:47You can see
12:48that all the
12:49scientists
12:50working in
12:51these space
12:52agencies
12:53are doing
12:54a great job
12:55because
12:56they don't
12:57know
12:58that these
12:59are only
13:00the asteroids
13:01that we
13:02have discovered
13:03so far.
13:04It is possible
13:05that more asteroids
13:06will be discovered
13:07in the near future
13:08and the
13:09comets
13:10don't have
13:11a good
13:12calculated
13:13trajectory.
13:14It means
13:15that we
13:16won't get
13:17a warning
13:18window
13:19about
13:20comets.
13:21It is possible
13:22that we
13:23discovered
13:24a new
13:25comet
13:26just
13:27today.
13:28Let me
13:29tell you
13:30about
13:31two
13:32major
13:33celebrations
13:34of our
13:35time.
13:36The first
13:37is Linear
13:38Lincoln
13:39Near Earth
13:40Asteroid
13:41Research.
13:42It was
13:43started in
13:441996 and
13:45is a
13:46collaboration
13:47between
13:48NASA,
13:49MIT
13:50and
13:51the
13:52United
13:53States
13:54Air Force.
13:55It was established by the University of Arizona in 1998.
13:59It uses two big telescopes.
14:01Its measurements are so precise that in 2008,
14:04they found an asteroid which was only 4 meters in diameter.
14:07And accurately, they predicted
14:09at what exact time and day this asteroid will fall on the Earth.
14:14And where exactly.
14:1519 hours after their prediction,
14:17this asteroid fell in the desert of North Sudan.
14:20And at the same place where they predicted.
14:23Third is PANSTARS.
14:24Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System.
14:27It is present in the Pacific Ocean in Hawaii.
14:29And it uses the world's largest digital cameras
14:33to find asteroids.
14:35The images captured by this largest camera
14:37are of 1.4 billion pixels.
14:40And the fourth is ATLAS.
14:41Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System.
14:44It is also present in Hawaii.
14:46And scientists have made it as a final warning.
14:49If all the other systems are unable to find an asteroid
14:52and by mistake, an asteroid escapes,
14:55then this system will give us a warning at the last minute
14:57about the impact of the asteroid.
14:59Every night, this system can scan the entire sky twice
15:02for any danger.
15:03So, overall, if we look at it,
15:04this defense system of our Earth is very good and strong.
15:07But sometimes, it fails.
15:09Like sometimes, small meteors
15:11escape undetected and impact the Earth.
15:15Like what happened to the Chelyabinsk meteor in February 2013.
15:19This 20-meter meteor
15:20could not detect any system on time.
15:23That's why for such scenarios,
15:24the civil defense component becomes very important.
15:27NASA has talked about this
15:28on page 12 of its mock test report.
15:31If a small asteroid or meteor is about to hit somewhere,
15:35it is very important that at the right time,
15:37disaster management plans should be activated
15:39with international coordination.
15:41But what will happen if a big asteroid
15:43is about to hit the Earth?
15:47There are three strategies to deal with it.
15:50First, kinetic methods.
15:51Second, slow push and pull methods.
15:53And third, nuclear methods.
15:55Out of these three,
15:56the first, kinetic method is the only way
15:58that has been successfully tested in real life.
16:01In this, we send a spacecraft
16:02to hit the asteroid and change its path.
16:06That is, change its orbit.
16:08It is a very simple and effective method.
16:10Its practical experiment was done two years ago
16:12in NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test.
16:15On 26th September 2022,
16:17a 170-meter-tall dimorphous asteroid
16:19was somewhere in space,
16:20very far from the Earth.
16:22And NASA's spacecraft was crashed on it.
16:31This asteroid was not a threat to us.
16:33It was just done as an experiment
16:35to see if doing this
16:37really changes the orbit of the asteroid or not.
16:40A video of the histograph was also taken,
16:42which you can see on the screen.
16:43And after that, when NASA saw the result,
16:45the asteroid's orbit had actually changed.
16:48The same experiment is going to be done
16:50by China's National Space Agency next year.
16:52In 2025, they will hit a 30-meter-tall asteroid
16:55with their own spacecraft
16:57and try to change its path.
16:59The second method is slow push and pull.
17:02In this, we slowly change the orbit of the asteroid.
17:05Solar energy can be used for this.
17:07A spacecraft goes near the asteroid
17:09and concentrates the Sun's rays on the asteroid
17:12and vaporizes a part of the asteroid.
17:14Due to this reaction, a small amount of gas will come out
17:17which will cause a slight thrust on the asteroid.
17:20And gradually, the asteroid will change its orbit.
17:23This happens naturally on asteroids
17:25when any asteroid passes near the Sun.
17:27But when it is done by sending a spacecraft,
17:29the only fear is that
17:31when the vaporization will happen on the asteroid,
17:34the stone may interfere with the optical system of the spacecraft.
17:38The third method is the nuclear method.
17:40Literally, send a nuclear bomb to the spacecraft
17:43and destroy the asteroid.
17:49It sounds like a movie,
17:51but realistically, it may never be used.
17:54There are two reasons for this.
17:55First, using a nuclear bomb in space
17:58can cause a lot of legal, international, geopolitical problems.
18:02And second, when an asteroid is destroyed,
18:05its pieces will scatter all over the place
18:07and we don't know which orbit those pieces will follow.
18:10It is possible that a piece may fall on the Earth
18:13due to its explosion.
18:14But this method is still under consideration
18:17because if an asteroid is very large,
18:20like if an asteroid is more than 10 km in size,
18:23the same size that extincted the dinosaurs,
18:27then other methods may not work so well
18:29because the size of the asteroid itself is so large.
18:32The mock test that NASA did a few months ago
18:34talked about all these things.
18:36Exactly how to deal with an asteroid
18:39that is going to hit the Earth after 14 years
18:42and whose chance is 72%.
18:44The good news is that 81% of the participants
18:47who were participating in this mock experiment
18:49believed that they were ready to deal with such a danger.
18:53There are only a few gaps
18:55that scientists have raised regarding such scenarios.
18:58For example, one gap was said
19:00that we have only tried one method so far,
19:03the kinetic method.
19:04We should test this kinetic method many more times
19:07so that we can be sure that it will work.
19:10This was the 5th meeting
19:12to discuss such a hypothetical asteroid strike.
19:15Before this,
19:16such meetings were held in 2013, 14, 16 and 22.
19:20It was named as
19:21Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.
19:25And in the John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory,
19:27they met about 100 experts.
19:29So, all in all, there is nothing to worry about.
19:32Firstly,
19:33in the next 100 years,
19:34there is no such big asteroid
19:36whose chance of hitting the Earth is 0.01%.
19:39Secondly,
19:40our Earth's defense systems
19:42are becoming more advanced with time.
19:44In the year 2028,
19:46NASA will launch a space telescope
19:48named Near Earth Object Surveyor.
19:50It will detect such asteroids
19:52while being outside the Earth.
19:53So, our detection systems will improve even more.
19:56And thirdly,
19:57if we find an asteroid
19:59that can hit the Earth,
20:01then we already have systems to stop it.
20:05So, stop believing these fake news.
20:07And if you are interested in the topic of space,
20:10then I have made many more videos on space.
20:12There is a complete playlist.
20:14You can watch it by clicking here.
20:15Like this video on wormholes.
20:18How interstellar time travel can be possible through wormholes.
20:22You can watch it by clicking here.
20:23And the link to Scalar's live masterclass
20:25can be found in the description below.