CHINA'S AIR FORCE is MASSIVE and DANGEROUS but if you look DEEP...

Millennium7* History & Technology

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Transcript

00:00So

00:29there is a question that everybody is asking and that is how good is the

00:35Chinese Air Force? Obviously there is no easy answer and the questions that seem

00:42easy are often deceptively easy. So let's make a whole video about it and despite

00:49the fact that many have done this already we will try as usual to focus on

00:54something which is not easily found anywhere else on YouTube. But first the

00:59ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM!

01:04So Chinese aircraft and weapons are just copies of Russian designs. There's

01:10nothing original. They copied everything and everything is just a big pile of

01:15rubbish. I wish life was so clear-cut. It's true the Chinese didn't produce

01:20anything original for quite a long time and the technologies they used were

01:24either reverse engineering or acquired through licensed productions or plain

01:30technology transfers from abroad. And yes every major country does intelligence

01:37against everybody else, even among allies, all the time and basically China is no

01:42exception. So it is well possible that some of the Chinese technologies have

01:47been acquired or have been started by some know-how derived from intelligence.

01:54However in the last 20 years a lot has changed and there have been massive

02:00resources dedicated to technology improvement. Despite some visible

02:05similarities with foreign products, the technologies that are in use today are

02:10mostly indigenous. The similarities that you see derive mostly from commonality

02:15of design choices rather than plain coping. Just look at the stealth

02:20aircraft being designed and produced around the world. They all look the same

02:25because the problem that they're trying to solve is basically the same and they

02:30use the same solution. Or just consider the case of Delta Canard configuration.

02:36It is a very very efficient configuration for a modern jet fighter

02:41so it's no surprise that the Chinese had chosen that for the J-10. Also the

02:46Chinese have in service different versions and different variants of the

02:50Flanker, many of them actually indigenous, in which they're basically using the

02:58flexibility of the Flanker platform to add their own technology. But no wonder

03:03they still look like Flankers from the outside. Russian and Chinese technology

03:08have been undervalued for a long time, but in the 21st century this approach is

03:15no longer justified.

03:20The Chinese Air Force is numerically second only to the United States and it

03:26would probably require a number of videos in itself to be fully covered and

03:31maybe we will cross that bridge in the near future. What matters now is to get a

03:36relatively good picture of the general force structure. The core is formed by

03:41about 1,300 4th and 5th generation fighters. It is difficult to assess the

03:48actual capabilities of these aircraft, we don't have much information, but analysts

03:53somehow agree that they are capable platform not too far from the Western

04:00equivalents. In this core there are three families, the J-10, various versions of

04:06the Flankers, and the J-20. This composition is probably going to remain

04:10roughly the same in the near future, even though the percentage of J-20s is

04:14actually going to increase. China today is actually building about a hundred

04:19aircraft a year, so we may expect that this core is going to slowly increase in

04:24number, even though we may also expect that some of these hundred aircraft go

04:30and replace older models. Before moving on, please notice that this is a really

04:36good mix of different platforms with different capabilities and different

04:40technologies, which makes for a very resilient mix. About 500 aircraft of

04:46older generations are still in service, together with about 200 trainers that

04:52can carry weapons. Some of these aircraft are still useful as reconnaissance or

04:57electronic warfare platforms, but most of them are pretty much obsolete and

05:02should be used for second line tasks or just in an emergency. However, we may argue

05:07that they keep quite a large body of pilots trained and ready to move on to

05:13newer platforms when they will be available. China is also one of the few

05:17countries that still have a proper bomber in service. The H-6 is similar to

05:23the old Soviet 216 Badger, only from an aerodynamic configuration and structural

05:29point of view. Otherwise, they are completely new aircraft. There are not

05:33that many, but they are essential for the new role of power projection in the

05:39first two island chains, because their role is to be the missile track that is

05:45required to attack large naval formations. Actually, a stealth bomber has

05:50been announced, but we really know nothing so far. Something which is little

05:55known is the attention that the Chinese are placing on airborne radars. There are

06:02about 25 to 30 aircraft in service of different models, but some of them are

06:07very modern, the production is still ongoing. They're generally smaller than

06:12the Western counterparts, they are also turboprops, but they are all equipped

06:16with modern AESA radars, and they seem to be used exactly in the way that

06:21Western air forces use AWACS. On the flip side, there is a real lack of

06:25capability of aerial refueling. Today, the role is covered by a specialized

06:30version of the H-6, and there are very few units between 10 and 20, which are

06:35not proportionate to the number of frontline combat aircraft. However, like

06:41everything in China, the situation is quickly evolving. There is a tanker

06:46version of the Y-20 transport planned, and it is expected to enter service soon.

06:52One important aspect where I didn't manage to find information is readiness.

06:56That is, how many of all these aircraft are ready for use at any given moment.

07:02This is very important to assess the capability of the Chinese Air Force, but

07:06as I said, I didn't find any information. If you have any, please add in the

07:11And while you are there, why not subscribe, or just become a channel supporter through

07:17Patreon or Subscribestar, or just becoming a member, just say.

07:21Ok, now, what all this hardware is good for?

07:30The Chinese doctrine, for a very long time, has been even more rigid than the Soviet

07:37doctrine. Pilots were expected to follow a flight plan, fire against the targets

07:43they were ordered to, when they were ordered to, with the weapons they were

07:47ordered to, by the ground controllers. The experience of the last 50 years has

07:52proven this doctrine to be ineffective, and actually, it was a waste of resources.

07:58In the late 90s and early 2000s, the whole of the Chinese military doctrine

08:04has been subject to a revision. The focus shifted from a popular war,

08:09based on guerrilla, limited operations, limited regional conflicts, and limited

08:17power projections beyond the borders. The Chinese are well aware that they still

08:22don't have the power projection capabilities of the United States, but for example,

08:26the bases in Djibouti and in Pakistan show where they are headed.

08:31So the Air Force has begun restructuring along these lines, for example,

08:35integrating expeditionary capabilities, or developing the know-how for maritime

08:41operations. Very important is the fact that the pilot's

08:45training syllabus has become more similar to the Western Air Force training.

08:49The Chinese now focus on the capability and the proficiency of the individual

08:53pilot within a command and control environment, which is relatively similar

08:58to the American one, even though I suppose they keep speaking Chinese.

09:01In the same way the Russians have evolved away from the Soviet model,

09:06the Chinese did the same, but they went even further.

09:10The interesting element, from my point of view, is that while the Russians have

09:14embraced asymmetry to confront a Western opponent, the Chinese are going full

09:19Monty. They are trying to match the West with a similar doctrine, but indigenous

09:25hardware.

09:29Those who follow this channel already know that I think that the

09:33quality of the combat force is largely determined by

09:36the logistics and the human element behind the hardware.

09:41The Chinese government has been willing to invest a large amount of money and

09:45resources in aerospace development. The Chinese had a sharp focus on improving

09:50the industry, and today they have at least two or three large

09:54complexes that are adequate to design and build modern combat aircraft.

09:59They also tend to use a very pragmatic approach, they introduce a new type

10:03without all the capabilities in place, but then they very quickly iterate

10:07where the technology was not available, the Chinese have established cooperation

10:11with foreign manufacturers, and sometimes they

10:14push the boundaries through reverse engineering.

10:17At the same time the Air Force is continuously developing new tactics

10:21around these new technologies. This capability of quickly iterating and

10:25moving forward with a large and unrelenting support from

10:31the government and the public is probably the single most important

10:36strong point of the Chinese Air Force. It is so not only because it is promoting

10:41development and catching up with the West, but is

10:44also providing a moving target to the potential

10:49opponents. And in fact the result of this policy is

10:52literally a deluge of radar, electronics, ECM,

10:58weapons of any kind, long range, short range,

11:02air-to-air, air-to-ground, drones, and anything else you can think of. It is

11:07really difficult to keep up with all these developments.

11:10Then, not everything is perfect, not even in China.

11:14Propulsion has greatly improved in the last years, but still the

11:17Chinese engines are not at the same level as the western ones.

11:22There is a gap in thrust-to-weight ratio, but

11:25mainly the gap is in reliability. They require more maintenance,

11:30and this means either using more resources

11:33to keep the sortie generation capability high,

11:38or reducing the sortie generation capability. Another weak point

11:42is in the air-to-ground domain, where a limited number of guided weapons

11:47is available, and even those weapons are

11:50mostly designed to attack static targets. For example, a missing element is a

11:56weapon in the class of the Maverick or the Brimstone,

11:59or even anything similar to the French AASM family. But, like everything in

12:06China, this situation is expected to change

12:09soon. Actually, this video in two years will

12:12probably be very outdated. Third and crucial element is

12:16training. As we said before, it has greatly, greatly improved, but is still

12:22not at the same level as the west. The Chinese still don't have a red flag,

12:26and they lack combat experience. But even in this case, the situation is

12:31quickly evolving. They have started something that they call competitions,

12:34where the pilots are pitted against different types of

12:38aircraft. They invited the Russians, they are trying to be creative in the

12:43tactics, and by the way, they don't have combat

12:47experience, because they didn't fight any war,

12:50and I believe we should all be happy for that. Nobody really knows what's going to

12:54happen in case the Chinese system should

12:57interact with western systems, because, well, it's complicated.

13:03However, if you want to learn more about what may happen, and the kind of

13:07consideration that we can do around this, please click on the videos that are

13:12going to appear beside me. And by the way, this helps the channel

13:16a lot. Thank you very much for watching, and see you there!

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