‘Remarkably different race’ John King shows multiple pathways to victory
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00:00The Harris-Waltz campaign arrives in Chicago with some polling momentum behind them.
00:05We mentioned that at the top.
00:06The most notable result being from ABC News in the Washington Post, showing her leading
00:10nationally in the form of president by three points, which is outside the margin of error,
00:13and Robert Kennedy Jr. with 5 percent.
00:15But again, that's the national poll.
00:17Right now, I want to expand the discussion to how state-by-state polling suggests more
00:21potential ways the election may go, particularly for the Harris-Waltz ticket, how more ways
00:27for it possibly to win in November, certainly more than they or President Biden had just
00:30a few weeks ago.
00:31Senior John King joins the panel and me from the Magic Wall.
00:34So take a look.
00:36Shows the different paths to 270 now that the landscape has changed.
00:40Just a remarkably different race, Anderson.
00:42You were just talking in the last with the panel when we were in Milwaukee, right?
00:45Here's where we have the map right now.
00:47Dark red is solid Republican, light red leans Republican.
00:50Same for the blues.
00:51Likely, you know, solid Democratic leans Democratic.
00:53Harris at the moment 225 to Trump's 219.
00:56In Milwaukee, Joe Biden had one, one narrow path left.
01:00And that was win the blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.
01:04And even if he did that, he would have to pick up Nebraska's second congressional district.
01:08And I can tell you, that was the Democrats' only path in Milwaukee, and that was an unlikely
01:12path because we knew he was in trouble and Trump was in control.
01:15Harris right now can do that.
01:16You can see that in the state polling.
01:18You can see that in the return of African-Americans, younger voters, suburban voters who were just
01:24leaving Biden back to Harris.
01:27You can see that path right there, but that's not the only path she has.
01:29African-American support has jumped as well, including African-American women.
01:32So the Democrats believe, tough, tough, but they believe North Carolina would be in play.
01:37Georgia, Biden was probably toast in Georgia.
01:39They believe that's in play.
01:40Now, I'm not saying she's going to win all these.
01:42I'm just saying that you have Arizona and Nevada back in place.
01:45So you can have a scenario where she gets well above 300.
01:47At the same time, these states are all very competitive, as David Urban was just noting.
01:51So let's just say, for example, you know, you don't get all the Arab American voters
01:56back in the young voters, and Trump wins Michigan.
01:57Well, look, Harris still has opportunities, right?
02:00If North Carolina stays Republican, Harris still has opportunities to win it.
02:04So the bottom line is that Joe Biden had one very narrow path when we were in Milwaukee.
02:09Kamala Harris has five, six, seven different ways you can get her to 270.
02:12That means Donald Trump has those, too.
02:14But when you have those possibilities, Anderson, it just changes the composition of the campaign.
02:19She can now target those states.
02:20Donald Trump has to spend money in places.
02:22A couple of weeks ago, he didn't think he was going to have to spend money.
02:24We are in a brand-new world.
02:25John, I know a lot of our panelists have questions for you as well.
02:29David Axelrod?
02:30Yeah.
02:31Well, John, there are states and then there are states.
02:34In most of the models that you see, Pennsylvania is the tipping state, and it's 19 electoral
02:40votes.
02:41So there's no other piece, is there, that you can simply swap out for Pennsylvania?
02:47If a candidate were to lose Pennsylvania, they would need more than one piece, certainly
02:54if Kamala Harris didn't win Pennsylvania, she'd need to win a couple of other states
02:59in order to secure the 270.
03:01Without a doubt.
03:02The only one that comes close in this scenario here, so let's say Trump wins Pennsylvania.
03:06Give him that right there.
03:07That moves him up right there, right?
03:08So that would still have her at 225.
03:09If you can somehow, we tend to live in a national political environment, so if Donald Trump's
03:13winning Pennsylvania, the blue wall states, for example, have voted together since 2004.
03:17They tend to go together.
03:18It doesn't mean they will this time.
03:20We're breaking rules all the time.
03:21But North Carolina would be your best option there if you're getting close to that same
03:24number back right there, so then you're fighting through there.
03:28But that's why, David, if you just look at this, I'll just bring up the campaign ad spending,
03:32battleground ad spending.
03:33This is, forgive me for turning my back, just since Biden stepped aside and Harris got in,
03:37look at how much more money is going into Pennsylvania than any other state.
03:40The campaigns agree with you, David.
03:43Pennsylvania's the most important one because it's a bigger basket, 19.
03:46So you can see that.
03:47This is the campaign saying, you're right.
03:49Winning Pennsylvania makes it a whole lot easier.
03:52David Urban, you know Pennsylvania better than most.
03:54You were there with the former president yesterday.
03:57So John, even more granular, right?
03:59You're talking about the states.
04:01Let's get down in Pennsylvania to the counties because, as you know, John, this is kind of
04:05one of the lost in several swing counties.
04:07You have Erie County in my book, right?
04:10Northampton, Lehigh, and Luzerne, excuse me, Scranton area, Luzerne, Lackawanna.
04:16So of those four, Northampton, Erie, Lackawanna, Luzerne, what do you think, where do you
04:20think we should be watching?
04:21What do you think is the most important there?
04:23Let me give you how I look at it, and then I'll give you another option.
04:25I tend to look at Erie, I want to show you up here, Northwest Pennsylvania.
04:29Look how close it was in 2020.
04:30Donald Trump won it in 2016.
04:33So I look at Erie, then you come over to Northampton County here.
04:35Why do I look there?
04:36Donald Trump won it in 2016.
04:38Joe Biden took it back in 2020.
04:40There are only 25 counties in America, two of them, right there in the Commonwealth of
04:44Pennsylvania.
04:45Then Barack Obama carried twice, then Trump won in 2016, then Biden flipped back in 2020.
04:50There are only 25 of them all across the country, two of them in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
04:53So I look at those, but to your point about the others, let's just look at one of them
04:57right here.
04:58This is Joe Biden's home county, Lackawanna County, Scranton.
05:00You see the margins?
05:01Pennsylvania won by 80,000 votes, right?
05:03You see the margin there in 2020?
05:05He wins it by eight.
05:07In 2016, Hillary Clinton won it, but only by three and a half.
05:11So the margins matter, right?
05:13If Harris is close here, not winning it by a decent margin, that means Trump's stronger
05:18in Pennsylvania, if you will.
05:19So I'd watch the swing counties first, but no question, Lackawanna, Luzerne, also worth
05:23a peek.
05:24Ashley?
05:25You know, John, I'm all about building the coalition, and I know that a lot of folks
05:29are interested in independent, perhaps never-Trumpers that Harris can get over.
05:35But I'm wondering if there are particular constituencies, like African Americans or
05:39the Latino population, or even young voters, that you think she can run the score up in
05:44a Philadelphia or a Pittsburgh or in a college town that could give her the advantage, even
05:49if she isn't able to pull as many independents over in this election?
05:53I am fascinated by, number one, how does she manage?
05:55You mentioned Maxwell Frost.
05:57A giant challenge at this election is to talk to young people, many of whom are motivated
06:01by the Israel-Gaza issue and are mad at President Biden and, by extension, now mad at Harris
06:06here.
06:07One of the big questions here is, you know, I was on college campuses a lot last time.
06:10I am looking forward to getting back out here, Washington County, why the University of Michigan,
06:14right?
06:15You move here more to the east.
06:16Wayne County is where you find Wayne State University.
06:20Does this convention, does she start to make a down payment on winning back those disaffected
06:24young people, many of whom are also people of color, either Arab Americans or African
06:28Americans we met on those campuses?
06:30The convention is a giant opportunity to begin that effort.
06:34That's the giant question.
06:35She's in better shape.
06:36She's not in good enough shape yet to say Michigan or some of these other places are
06:39a lock.
06:41That's David Urban's band.
06:42They're doing a sound check right now.
06:43I'm trying to drown out the Democratic question.
06:44John, I want to ask you, I mean, common wisdom tells us the top of the ticket either boosts
06:51or drags down ballot candidates.
06:53But there's this thought that now Arizona and North Carolina are potentially in play
06:57for Kamala Harris.
06:58And Republicans have two very polarizing candidates, Carrie Lake in Arizona and then Mark Robinson
07:04running for governor in North Carolina.
07:06Is there a scenario where having these candidates that have some major vulnerabilities could
07:10actually hurt Donald Trump's chances in those critical battlegrounds?
07:14I think it's a critical test.
07:16So let me just go to North Carolina and use that as an example.
07:18This is the presidential map in 2020, but you mentioned Mark Robinson.
07:21He's the Republican candidate for governor.
07:23He's out there, shall we say, right?
07:24So why does that matter?
07:26Look how close this was.
07:27Look how close this was, 49.9 to 48.6.
07:30So what the Democrats believe is if you take Trump and then you take Robinson and then
07:34you go here and here and you try to improve your standing in the suburbs, right?
07:39You try to improve your standing in the suburbs by saying they are so extreme.
07:42Now, Biden did pretty well in the suburbs last time, but if you just come into the Raleigh-Durham
07:46area here and you bring it out, come on for me, there you go, you know, 62 percent.
07:51That's pretty good.
07:52Move over to Durham, 80 percent there.
07:53So the question is, can you boost those numbers where the Democrats are just a little bit
07:57more because the state is so close?
07:59Again, sometimes the tiniest margins make a difference and sometimes a candidate out
08:02of the mainstream can help.