Will Nifty Claw Back Mark 25,000?
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00:00Shrikant, how are you feeling about the nifty? It didn't give much of an opportunity to be honest
00:05when it's made that swift move over the last two days. From where we look at the nifty at,
00:10is it a buy the dip or sell the rally on the index?
00:17Yeah, good morning everyone. I think see like nifty was like very clearly into uptrend after
00:23crossing the levels of 24,500. And most of the time, whenever there is like a dependency on
00:29the global cues, we miss intraday moves or let's say very short term moves. But broadly, I'm of
00:37the view that now again, we are approaching to the levels of 25,000, where the market is having
00:42good amount of resistance. So close to 24,950 or 25,000 levels, it is better to stay away from
00:49taking any specific long position on index. But yes, in case if there is any correction,
00:54and again, market comes back to the levels of 24,700, then there we should look for taking
00:59some long bets. But at these levels after opening higher, it is better to stay away. Yes,
01:04bank nifty did really well. And there we saw a smart recovery in yesterday's trading session.
01:10There we have a bullish view and I'm expecting bank nifty to move towards at least 51,200 or
01:1751,800 index one or two days of time. So bank nifty should be on the radar and we can create
01:26or hold long positions with a stop loss close to 50,300 on the downside.
01:33So constructive on bank nifty, even though the index ended in negative territory yesterday,
01:38there were a handful of banks that performed well on Monday and Tuesday. Nirav, I don't want to ask
01:44you about the markets because I feel like it's difficult to take a fundamental call on the index
01:49on a daily basis. But the big story this morning is Zomato Paytm. What do you make of this deal?
01:55Do you feel that Zomato has overpaid? What do Zomato investors do? And what do Paytm investors
02:02do? And also quick disclaimer, all the brokerages we've looked at so far have maintained their
02:07buy call and target price on Zomato with some even increasing their target price.
02:12Yeah, good morning and thank you for having me on your show. I think from the seller's
02:18perspective, that is Paytm's perspective, I think it's a win-win. And I think as far as Zomato is
02:25concerned, the general perception is that they're paid about eight times the revenue. So I think
02:33on the face of it, prima facie, it looks like an expensive deal. But given Zomato's track record
02:41of scaling up companies, I think markets definitely are upbeat that they'll be able to
02:48repeat the trick going forward. So I think taking into account the prospects of a strong scale up,
02:57I think it looks positive. So it looks positive for Zomato from a fundamental point of view. Dare
03:05I ask, Shrikant, how are you looking at both parties of this deal, Zomato and 197 Communications
03:12on the charts? I think in that if we go through with the technical pattern of Zomato, then there
03:19we are seeing a consolidation sort of activity. Broadly, I'm of the view that it is into gradual
03:26uptrend and eventually it is heading for the levels of at least 300, 320 based on its technical
03:32formation. So I'm of the view that if there is a medium to long term view, then even at this level,
03:36it's a buy. What about 197, anything at all there? Actually, I was not tracking it very closely.
03:47Let's just get your picks for this morning, Shrikant. Yes, I think see all these index
03:53heavyweight stocks, especially like ITC, Reliance, they should do well because now we are very close
03:58to those levels from where again, we can see some stock specific sort of activity because now we are
04:04very close to 25,000 levels. So here we need to be more and more stock specific. We like ITC,
04:10which is around some 505, 506 levels. There we are expecting stock to move towards 525.
04:17We can keep stop loss somewhere close to 494. And the other stock on which we are bullish is Bharat
04:23Electronics. The stock has maintained its important level of 300 despite there was
04:30weakness in the market. Here I think we can keep stop loss around 294 and we can expect 330,
04:37335 on the high side. So Bharat Electronics, ITC should be on the watch list. We also like Reliance
04:42Industries, but it is now very close to its resistance level. But broadly, there also we
04:47are expecting stock to move towards 3050 or 3060 sort of levels. Nirav, you know, we saw FMCG
04:54sporadically do quite well. I mean, the index has actually posted very healthy gains in the
04:58last six to eight weeks. One stock that may not have participated is Tata Consumer on back of
05:04that 3000 crore deal that they had going, which is finally closed out yesterday. Do you feel like
05:11with that overhang behind Tata Consumer, it does become a good stock even fundamentally to buy
05:16today? Because one, they've not participated and secondly, now there's not too much of a negative
05:22overhang. Yeah, the fact of the matter is Tata Consumer products has not participated in this
05:28rally. And I think as far as the performance of the stock goes, I think it will depend on the
05:35prices of tea, coffee. And typically, I think the prices tend to start moving up during this part
05:42of the year. So I think the negative seems to be over. But again, at the same time, we think
05:49that there's a limited upside from the current levels. Very quickly, Shrikant, I need to go into
05:55a break. But with the rights issue now behind Tata Consumer, do you feel like it could break
05:59out of this range and reclaim levels of 1200 and hence becomes a strong buy call from your end?
06:04No, see, like again, I can't like specifically comment on Tata Consumer because it is into
06:10restricted list. Nirav, in terms of strategy, you know, would you look a little more detail,
06:16in a little more detail at any of the reality names, the reality index was the top loser.
06:20In yesterday's trade, are you seeing anything interesting there to now be constructive about?
06:26Yeah, as far as the reality space is concerned, I think valuations are looking
06:31quite rich at this point of time. So I think we would wait for some correction before,
06:39we would wait for some correction before making an entry with the reality stores.
06:44I think it's a wait and watch at this point of time.
06:49Right. Well, Shrikant, a couple of other names I want to quickly
06:53talk to you about is, it'd be unfair if we don't discuss pharma this morning with the sort of rally
06:58as some of those pharma counters witnessed yesterday. Let's start with your top pick in
07:02the pharma pack. And if you've got a view on DV's lab, because that made a record high yesterday.
07:08Yeah, I think, see, even if we go through with FI's investments,
07:11then they are shifting from financials to pharma index, which is what like we can see
07:18based on their FPI numbers. But for DV's laboratories, yes, after a very long time,
07:24the stock has managed to reverse sharply from the lower levels. In fact, it is into gradual uptrend,
07:31but it was underperforming as compared to the entire space. But now while looking at its
07:37medium term pattern, I think it is on the verge of crossing its previous high of 5400.
07:44So it's a buy at current levels and more on dips. We can keep stop loss around 4700 for creating
07:52any long positions. I think the stock is ready to surpass its previous high of 5400.
07:59We also like NAPCO pharma, which is currently around 1470-75. And there also, if we see the
08:06pattern, then there also, the stock is following consistently high top highs,
08:12the stock is following consistently high top higher bottom formation.
08:15So based on its technical formation and the previous breakout, the stock is heading for
08:21the levels of 1700 or 1750 in next few weeks or months. So it will take some time. But at this
08:27level, it's a great risk reward ratio for creating any long positions for the target of 1700. And
08:34finally, we are also bullish on Biocon based on its technical formation. Recently, the stock has
08:40made a double bottom close to 310 levels. And now it is very close to the breakout levels of 360.
08:46So above 360, the stock can move to the levels of maybe 390 or 400. Broadly, we are bullish on
08:52almost all the pharma companies. But most of these stocks are very close to or above their fair values
08:58based on fundamentals. But based on technicals, all these patterns actually helps momentum traders to
09:04create long positions. Right. Also, a quick check, it'd be nice to see what Zomato and
09:12Paytm are doing this morning in pre-open trade. It's a flat start on the index. So don't expect
09:16fireworks. 3.5% high as the market is perceiving this as a fairly good deal for Zomato. We are at
09:23270 now on the stock in pre-open trade. Let's take a look at how Paytm as well is doing and
09:30as good. It's a good, it's a win-win like Pankaj Murakka called it for both parties involved in
09:35this transaction. A 3% likely gap up on Paytm is what we are eyeing. Pharmaceuticals, we've talked
09:42about. Very quick word, Nirav, you want to come in whether pharma still looks like a good buy?
09:47And if yes, in the pharma pack, where is your biases? Yeah, definitely. If one were to look at
09:55the Q1 performance of the pharma companies, I think it's been a very positive commentary. The
10:00domestic markets have done quite well. There is some signs of improvement in the US markets as
10:05well. Especially the larger companies like Loop and Dr. Reddy's laboratories have given very strong
10:13results. So I think that has led to the strong momentum in the pharma space. And I think we
10:19now expect most of these mid-cap companies also to start performing well. And I think going forward
10:25for the next couple of quarters, the outlook looks quite strong as far as the pharma companies are
10:30concerned. That's interesting. Those are a few trade calls coming in. A quick one on Zen
10:36Technology. Nirav, you've been tracking this one. Numbers were phenomenal. It's been quite the star
10:41in the defense pack. Went through months of hitting up a circuit every day. Today, of course, we
10:46believe they're launching a QIP and the funds will be used for inorganic expansion. Does that
10:51garner wealth for Zen Tech? Yeah, so the opportunity in defense is going to be huge. And this is a
10:58relativity of quite a smaller player. So I think definitely there is a possibility to scale up. And
11:04hence, I think the QIP, which we consider inorganic growth opportunities. But having said that, I think
11:12there are better players in the defense space, like Bharat Coach or Solar Industries, which could
11:18be looked at in a more serious manner. Right. That's Zen Tech. The others,
11:26keeping the focus with defense actually, Shikant, Mazgaon Docks, Garden Reach and Cochin Shipyard.
11:34They've had it quite rough in the last few training weeks. Yesterday, of course, there was a
11:38little bit of a recovery or stabilizing, if I may say, or finding a bottom for these shipbuilders.
11:45Do you feel like there could be a quick buck to be made on a recovery in the shipbuilder names?
11:54See, like if we go through with all these three names, then they have broken their immediate
12:00support level. So which is something negative as per technicals. But as long as they are trading
12:07above their long-term averages, I think all these corrections will be an opportunity for
12:13positional traders to create long positions. But broadly, I'm of the view that till these stocks
12:18are not forming any reversal formation on a weekly basis, it is better to stay away from
12:23taking any short-term positions. It is very difficult to make quick bucks in these particular
12:29stocks. But in this space, specifically Bharat Electronics, as well as Hindustan Aeronautics,
12:36both these stocks are relatively better. Their formations as well as their overall performance
12:41is like much better. And even on a monthly and weekly basis, these stocks have managed to
12:46sustain above their previous lows. So in case if there is any specific momentum,
12:52we see like the market, this particular sector is continuing, then I think Bharat Electronics
12:58and Hindustan Aeronautics along with Zen Technology should be on the watch list.
13:03Nirav, what about you? What are you doing with these shipbuilder names? Do you feel like there
13:07still an opportunity exists because you had that report from ICC Securities and the stocks
13:11got trashed. Management, of course, had said that from FY26, FY27, we know what's happening,
13:17but beyond that, calling out visibility stuff. Do you feel like it was just pure profit booking
13:23because these stocks have generated significant investor wealth? What do you do if you are
13:28already invested in these shipbuilder names? Do you hold on to them or do you take your profits
13:33off the table for now? For those who have entered into these stocks at earlier levels, then I think
13:39it's definitely a hold. But I think a very divergent picture is emerging. If one were to
13:44look at the margins of the company, especially in Buzznaut Docks, last year the FY23 margins were
13:50close to 17% and that has gone up to 25% in the Q1 of FY25. So I think the EPS has
13:58almost doubled from 56 to 95 levels. So if one were to take into account that margin trajectory,
14:04then I think definitely Rs.110 EPS from Buzznaut Docks is there on the cards. So if one were to
14:12discount that in a very reasonable way, then the valuation comes to Rs.2750. So I think if you
14:19want to enter into this stock, then I think we will enter at these levels. And as far as the
14:24other two stocks are concerned, I think the margin trajectory is on the lower side. So I think it
14:29would be better to stay away from them at this point of time. But Tamna, I think Integral
14:33Aviation, that's the other one, a couple of big brokerages on those two. A couple of big notes on it.
14:37HSBC has one out, Jefferies has one out and they've launched their business class product
14:44on a few flights. That was expected. But Indigo is having a pretty decent morning pre-market as well.
14:51Now, the HSBC view, for example, talks about how does this end the dominance of a Vistara?
14:59And they actually want to say Indigo's business class launch ends Vistara Air India's monopoly
15:03positioning its product close to premium economy at Vistara. And Neerav, I just wanted your view
15:09on that because this is really by far the market leader has a monopoly, not a monopoly, but 60%,
15:1670% share of the market and now has gone into the premium sort of category as well. Do you see
15:23this as an upside in terms of a strategic move for Interglobe, an exciting time to maybe come
15:29into the stock? Yeah, definitely. I think it's a positive going in for premiumization just like
15:36what we have in FMCG space. So I think this is the premiumization of the aviation industry.
15:43And I think going by the traffic numbers, etc., I think this is only slated to grow going forward
15:51because we'll be coming into the festival season very soon. So I think definitely it augurs well
15:57for the future. Interglobe Aviation also looking to start the day off with a 2.5%
16:03up move in rates. So all of this is setting itself up for a strong sort of morning,
16:08but it's going to be largely stock specific. The broad-based movement on the street, I mean,
16:12that looks beautiful. 24,800 seems to have been taken out at least in pre-open trade. So the next
16:18top, of course, on the index is 24,850 on closing basis that the street will be tracking very
16:24closely. Well, we also have a quick word, if I can, get on Ola Electric. Nirav, fundamentally,
16:31how does Ola Electric look? Fundamentally, I think it's difficult to justify the valuations,
16:40but I think it's a disruption space. So I think definitely the valuations are going to be on the
16:47upside. So I think at this point of time, we can see some consolidation, but I think the stock is
16:54poised to move upwards. I know too tough to give a technical view on Ola because it's such a new
17:01listing, but I don't know, do you track it? I'm sure you've got enough and more of your clients
17:06asking you what to do with Ola Electric. I'm extremely sorry because this stock is also in
17:12our restricted list. That's why I can't comment on it. In between the lines. Shikant, now that
17:22you've seen the pre-open rates settle and looking at a decent start, maybe close to 100 points up
17:28on the Nifty 80s as far as pre-open is concerned, what would be your top pick? Would you add
17:35anything to the list? And if you look at some of the Nifty gainers, do you think Grasim or Hindalco
17:40or some of those players I want to watch out for? Well, I think in that particular list, if we go
17:46through with stocks like Vedanta as well as Indigo, I think both are showing a lot of strength.
17:52Vedanta especially, it was, I'm to say it has been into consolidation mode for last almost
18:00three months and now it is breaking out of that. So from here, the stock can move to the levels of
18:05490 or maybe 500 in next few weeks or months. So it will take some time, but it is into a consolidation
18:13phase and on the dismissal of that, we are expecting stock to move towards higher levels.
18:18So it's a buy even at current levels around 460, 465. Indigo, which is like showing some sideways
18:25sort of activity, there also we are seeing strength and I'm expecting stock to move towards
18:29the levels of 4750 or 4800 levels. And no doubt Grasim is like something which is bullish on
18:37long-term charts. On daily basis, the stock corrected to its important levels some few days
18:42back. Now it is very close to the resistance level around 27, 2750. But in case if there's any
18:47correction in next one or two days of time, certainly it's a buy. I'm expecting stock will
18:51cross its previous high. Grasim has stopped buy. What about Char Metallics, Shikant? Could be the
18:57other stock of the morning very quickly. Yeah, absolutely. This stock is showing a lot of
19:01strength. In fact, the stock was into this particular consolidation of 750 and 500 for
19:07last one, one and a half year. And now since last few weeks, if you see the pattern, then it has
19:12managed to surpass the resistance level of 750. From here, the stock can move to the levels of
19:18900 or 950 based on its technical formation. Very quickly, Shikant, opening thoughts. The start
19:24has been much better than expected. Do you feel like this could be building on to today's gains
19:28and by the time we get into the weekend, who knows, another leg closer to 25,000?
19:35Yeah, I think so. In fact, it is good that the markets opened at an
19:41like average levels. I was actually expecting market to open somewhere close to 24,000,
19:46900 or 950, where the market is having a good amount of resistance. But now after opening
19:53around these levels, I think it will give one more opportunity for intraday traders to create
19:58any long positions. I think close to this 24,000, 800 or 750. Again, we should look for taking some
20:03long positions because broadly the trend is on the upward side and Bank Nifty is something which is
20:10going to support the market in next one or two days of time. That's the overall view based on
20:14its technical formation. So, at these levels and a few points more on the downside will be
20:21an opportunity for traders to create long positions. Okay. So, you know, that's the
20:27view coming in on the Bank Nifty. But if you look at how markets are behaving this morning,
20:33more of the action on the broader end of the markets and there's little doubt about that.
20:39Some of the spaces that are working and I just want to look at the speciality chemicals,
20:43fertilizers, the Puck Nitrate, FACT. These are some of the counters that are buzzing.
20:48Anything over here that you would now create positions in?
20:51Srikanth, let me come to you on the charts first.
20:56Yeah, I think see from the chemical basket, we like PI Industries, which is around 4400 levels
21:05and the entire pattern is quite bullish. And if we compare that with other stocks from this space,
21:12then it is relatively doing much, much better. Recently, the stock has made a higher bottom
21:17somewhere close to 40 to 50, 40 to 60 levels. And from here, the stock can move to the levels of
21:23at least 4800 to 4900. So again, it's a good risk reward ratio for creating long positions
21:30at current levels. We also like SRF, but the stock which should be on the watch list is always
21:37PCBL, Philips Carbon. There also the momentum is very, very strong. Currently, it is around 443,
21:44444. But whenever there is a correction in the market, we see buying interest for this particular
21:49stock. So in case if the stock corrects back to the levels of 430, 435, then there we should look
21:55for taking long bets. I think finally, the stock is heading for the levels of maybe 500 sort of
22:00levels. All right. Thank you so much, Srikanth and Neerav for joining us this morning.