Uncharted territory: Despite Macron's initial resistance to work with NFP 'Castets could be next PM'
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00:00For some analysis now we can bring in Nicholas Starten, an associate professor of politics
00:04and international relations at John Cabot University in Rome. Thank you so much for
00:08taking the time to speak with us. Emmanuel Macron has had, you know, all summer to kind
00:13of think about how he's going to handle the political situation. What do you think he's
00:17trying to figure out with these meetings? And do you think his mind is maybe already
00:21made up?
00:22It's a good question. You know, he's had a lot of time to think about it. He's had the
00:26Olympic truce, as you were calling it, in your to kind of work out what his strategy
00:33is. I mean, obviously, he would favour some kind of centrist coalition that might include
00:40the Republicans and possibly peeling off the right wing of the Socialist Party. The problem
00:46is, I think, for Macron is that historically, France hasn't really been built around coalitions
00:50of the centre. Coalitions have always kind of been of the left and of the right. So,
00:56you know, he finds himself in uncharted territory, I would say, in terms of which way to go.
01:01He's obviously had what appears to be on the surface a relatively positive meeting this
01:06morning with the populist front leaders of the left. And it looks like Lucie Castaix
01:12has not been ruled out as the possible future prime minister. It'll be interesting to see
01:18how his lunchtime discussions go, because I think he has discussions later today where
01:22he'll be talking to his broad coalition of the centre, which comprises lots of little
01:27different parties. And, you know, he's going to need to get everybody on board with his
01:31eyes and thoughts on that. And I guess also, you know, we've got to wait till Monday, I
01:36think, before anything concrete probably happens, because he'll also be talking to the
01:40Rassemblement national leaders, probably both Le Pen and Bardella on Monday. So I think
01:46his heart would sort of say, look, I really want to build this coalition of the centre.
01:50But I can't see how he can really avoid not utilising the popular front, given that, you
01:58know, they are the biggest seat holder in the French National Assembly. They have 190
02:04receipts. So, you know, at this stage, it's difficult to really predict where it's going
02:09to go. But I think, you know, give it 24 hours, 48 hours, we're going to know a lot clearer
02:14how this looks. And I would suspect a prime minister to be nominated probably on Monday
02:19or Tuesday.
02:20Yeah, as you said, the left wing bloc is the biggest group. That's their argument. They
02:24basically say, you know, Emmanuel Macron, you can't look anywhere else but us, otherwise
02:28it's illegitimate. So do you think that that's true that Macron is ultimately going to go
02:32with the left wing bloc?
02:35Well, I wouldn't want to speculate too much at this stage. I think he would prefer to be
02:40trying to peel off the socialists away from the left wing bloc and potentially the Greens
02:46as well. I think he's reticent about a coalition that would include France Insoumise. So, you
02:56know, he's really got a difficult 24, 48 hours to work out how this is going to go. I mean,
03:02look, at one stage, we were very much talking about Xavier Bertrand as a possible prime
03:08minister. But as you pointed out in your piece earlier, you know, the Republicans have
03:11only got 63 seats. And even if there was to be some kind of coalesce, coalition between the
03:18Republicans in the centre, you know, it's not necessarily really reflecting the democratic
03:23process when, you know, as we've already discussed, the Front de Gauche, or the New Popular
03:29Front, as it's now called, got 193 seats. So I wouldn't want to actually wager live on France
03:3624 who's going to become the prime minister. I'm not sure it's really any clearer after today's
03:43discussion. But I think one thing we can say is it is possible that Lucie Castaix could be the
03:49next French prime minister.
03:52And the results of the snap elections were already sort of a slap in the face for Emmanuel
03:56Macron. Has waiting this long also weakened his position and the way that people see him in and
04:03outside of France?
04:05I'm not sure it has. I think he got a little bit of a bounce in terms of the Olympics. I think that
04:10seemed to pass off well. And you know, it gave people a little bit of time to think about what
04:15was going on in French political circles. So I actually think probably having this little bit of
04:19extra time has been to his advantage. It's kind of negated a little bit some of the radical calls
04:26from the right and the left in terms of what's going to happen next. I mean, at one stage, the
04:33New Popular Front were talking about a potential impeachment of the president if they didn't go
04:40along with his thoughts on who should be with their thoughts on who should be prime minister.
04:46But there doesn't seem to have been any of that kind of language this morning. There hasn't been
04:49any kind of strong talk from the New Popular Front about things like impeachment. It'll be
04:55interesting to see how the Rassemblement Nationale on the right react to this. You know, they're
05:01obviously a key player as well. They didn't do as well in the parliamentary elections as they
05:07initially thought they would. They still got a significant rump in the National Assembly. And,
05:14you know, Macron, I think, will be obliged to talk closely with the leadership of the
05:19Rassemblement Nationale as he moves forward with his coalition. But I would doubt that the
05:27RM will feature in that. I think what he's looking to do is try to get some kind of coalition which
05:32would ensure stability. Bearing in mind, you know, the next presidential elections
05:38are not until the spring of 2027. So he's got to make this work for the remainder of his
05:46second term of office. Well, I wanted to ask you what the remainder of his term in office,
05:51what do you think it's going to look like? I mean, once a prime minister is named,
05:54what happens next? And what kind of governing capacity is the next government going to have?
06:01I didn't catch your question there, actually, I'm afraid, because it wasn't very clear. It
06:05lagged out. Could you just repeat the question quickly? Yes, I was just asking, you know,
06:09what the end of Emmanuel Macron's term is going to look like once he does name a prime minister
06:13and a new government? What's their governing capacity going to be like?
06:17Well, it's difficult. It's difficult, I think, for the president, perhaps less difficult for
06:26any government that's in power. But I think there will be issues around, you know, what can we do
06:32to get legislation passed? We know that the New Popular Front would very much like to revisit the
06:41revisit the retirement age with regards to the pensions question. So that has the potential to
06:49resurface. And there are other issues, you know, which will be difficult, I think, to regulate
06:57with a kind of small majority coalition that's been put together, cobbled together. So I think
07:03that, you know, the limitations that are there for the government, and also, you know, the
07:07limitations for the end of the Macron presidency. My suspicion is that he will concentrate primarily
07:13on foreign policy. There's a lot going on in the world. And I think, you know, he will be looking
07:18to kind of reassert himself as a statesman on the world stage, and hoping that at the domestic level,
07:26whichever government takes power can kind of keep going until the end of his presidency
07:31without great crisis, even if, you know, this government does not actually produce
07:37massive amounts of legislation moving forward.
07:41All right, Nicholas Starten, thank you again so much for your analysis today. We'll have to leave
07:45it there. That's Nicholas Starten, an associate professor of politics and international relations
07:50at John Cabot University in Rome.