Why is the IMF program approval delayed? What are the reasons | Saleem Mandviwalla's Analysis
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Why is the IMF program approval delayed? What are the reasons | Saleem Mandviwalla's Analysis
Why is the IMF program approval delayed? What are the reasons | Saleem Mandviwalla's Analysis
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00:00First of all, on the economy side, there was a breakthrough with IMF, which is not in this month's IMF schedule, Pakistan's name in any way.
00:10Next month, there is an expectation that Pakistan's name will be there, but the question is,
00:16that they want to go to the rest of the alternative sources, explore them too.
00:20Our friends are the owners, they should also give us a roll over.
00:23Will it happen, Mr. Manviwala? Do you think that we will be able to achieve something?
00:28Look, let me tell you, if you take out any IMF program historically,
00:34then there are always preconditions in it, post-conditions,
00:39some things have to be achieved after SLA.
00:44There are a lot of things that need to be achieved in the IMF program.
00:57Some are in your hands, some you have to do, some of your donors also have to participate.
01:06So saying that there was a delay, the fact is, technically we are in the program.
01:15We are right now in the IMF program.
01:20The day your budget passed, you have been in the program since that day.
01:24So you have to complete it.
01:27And this is not just right now, that their board will approve it.
01:34This program is a three-year program.
01:37For three years, you will be required to do things.
01:40That is, we will be in line, this will be a normal thing.
01:43But you have pointed to three points, Mr. Manviwala.
01:46Some things we have to do, some have to be done, and some donors have to do it.
01:51Let's list out one by one what we have to do.
01:54Because you are saying that we are doing it from the budget.
01:57Are we not fulfilling their requirements?
01:59Budget was a precondition.
02:01After that, they have said that you should do privatization.
02:05You should finalize the things of your leading organizations that have been leading you for so many years.
02:12What we have to do in the future.
02:14It's a matter of donors who have to roll over, who have to make commitments, who have to do that.
02:19So all these things take time.
02:22It's not rocket science that you just signed SLA and everything is in our hands.
02:27It doesn't work like that.
02:29Now the question comes here that we have to do it.
02:32We also know that we have to do it.
02:33Discussions are already going on about roll over from donors.
02:37Now the question comes that IMF should also trust us.
02:44Are there any specific reasons for trust deficit?
02:48There are some previous actions that are coming in front of us.
02:51What is the reason?
02:52There are previous actions.
02:54Trust deficit has been created from previous actions.
02:57And the finance minister himself said that because of the previous behavior of previous governments,
03:04this trust deficit has been created.
03:08So it is obvious that if you have given them false figures, wrong information,
03:14whatever reason the trust deficit has been created for you,
03:18it is obvious that the challenge is for this finance minister and this government.
03:24By the way, Mr. Mahindra, because we are talking about trust deficit,
03:27because we are also talking about false figures,
03:30there are some people from whom the IMF does not have much influence in Pakistan.
03:34And there is a businessman from among them.
03:36We all know that.
03:37And at this time, he is the deputy prime minister.
03:39And he is also a foreign minister.
03:41And we know that being the deputy prime minister,
03:43he has a say in some economic matters.
03:46By the virtue of his position.
03:48So is the IMF not afraid that they have shown their eyes earlier,
03:52what if we don't show our eyes again?
03:53What if we backtrack again?
03:55They will definitely have a say.
03:57And the prime minister also has a say.
03:59All the ministers have a say.
04:01But they have no direct dealings with them now.
04:07And whatever decisions they are making,
04:11as far as I know,
04:13the finance minister and the prime minister are doing it.
04:15Independently, without the intervention of Mr. Ishaq Dar?
04:19Yes, yes, without the intervention.
04:21In all these circumstances,
04:23the People's Party of Pakistan is being taken on board.
04:25Because there is no doubt that the People's Party is not directly sitting in the government.
04:29But the reason for running the government is definitely the People's Party.
04:32Absolutely, we have been taken on board.
04:36Chairman Bilawal has been taken on board.
04:38And he has also had meetings with the finance minister.
04:41It is not that we have been kept out from the discussions
04:50or principal agreements with the IMF.
04:52No, no, we have been taken on board.
04:54Right, because we don't want anything like IPPs to happen again.
04:58Because we are talking about IPPs,
05:00we have heard that on the matter of IPPs,
05:02in fact, the minister was telling us
05:04that on the matter of IPPs,
05:06they are trying to impose new conditions again.
05:09In two months, the nation will hear the good news.
05:12Do you believe this?
05:14Mr. Mandwala, any inside information?
05:16Look, I have heard this kind of thing before.
05:19And I think that all the ministers should behave more maturely.
05:26Instead of just saying things,
05:28and later it is found that they could not do anything
05:32and there was no result.
05:34So, they must be careful when they make such statements.
05:38Because later their statements become expensive.
05:43So, they should first work it out what it is.
05:47And then bring it in front of the people,
05:51that we have achieved this and that.
05:53First, let's see if we can achieve this or not.
05:57Can you achieve this or not, Mr. Mandwala?
06:00I think some things can be achieved from this.
06:04Which are?
06:05Which are that whatever wrong payments have been made to them,
06:09whatever pre-audits have not been done to them,
06:13whatever technical audits have not been done to them,
06:16and without that they have been getting payments,
06:18they need to be looked into,
06:21that how it has been happening and how it has been happening,
06:24things like that.
06:25Right.
06:26And what are the unachievable things?
06:28I mean, changing the tariff or reducing their capacity payments,
06:33can this be changed?
06:35The contractual obligations that we have,
06:38it can only be changed through negotiation.
06:42You cannot forcefully change them.
06:44Fair enough.
06:45If the other party agrees,
06:47then obviously you can revisit the contract.
06:50But if they don't agree,
06:52then it becomes a challenging situation.
06:55But we know that there is a big chunk of Pakistani IPP owners.
07:00Would it be easier to convince Pakistani IPP owners,
07:03because of them being the locals?
07:06There is no issue of Pakistani IPPs or foreign IPPs.
07:11Okay.
07:12If you do it for one person,
07:15then you will have to do it for everyone across the board.
07:18So you will have to discuss collectively with them.
07:23So what Gohar Rajat is saying,
07:25that there is a big chunk of local IPPs,
07:29at least talk to them,
07:30isn't that right?
07:31No, I am not saying that you should not do it.
07:34Okay.
07:35But you cannot force them to agree,
07:40and give relief to others.
07:42I mean, it will have to be something,
07:45you will have to take this matter with a consensus.
07:49If you agree with them,
07:51then you will have to talk to others as well.
07:54And there are many other issues in this.
07:56Some IPPs' contracts are expiring.
08:00Some IPPs are already on take and pay.
08:04There are different situations of different IPPs.
08:09You cannot deal with them with the same yardstick.