The Federal Government is proposing to cap the number of international students newly enrolling in courses at 270 thousand for next year.
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00:00In general, our view is it's a blunt instrument that's going to have an impact in different
00:07ways across a really important sector.
00:09And every dollar that we earn from international students, we reinvest either into our domestic
00:14students or our research effort, and that's certainly the situation at QUT.
00:19And this will impact on us both in terms of our current operations, which we're still
00:24not back in the black after the pandemic, but also in our future plans.
00:29So it's still going to be really tough.
00:32I do want to talk to you mainly as the UA deputy chair, but since you mentioned your
00:39other role, Margaret, does QUT have its figure yet?
00:45If so, would you share it with us?
00:47Or if not, its impact on your particular institution?
00:50Yeah, sure.
00:51So we got...
00:52Everyone was provided with a draft number, I think, you know, for checking this morning
00:56as well, alongside the overall numbers.
01:00So in general, the universities have not been hit as hard by this as the vet sector.
01:07And to the extent to which it impacts, it's a really complicated formula, depending on
01:12where you were in 2019, how much you've grown since 2023, and your overall percentage of
01:19international students.
01:20But my university, big domestic cohort, a smaller but still significant international
01:26cohort, it will impact on our capacity to support all those students.
01:30And we will have to be making some very tough decisions.
01:33And I think all my colleagues are in that same position, and to a lesser or greater
01:38extent depending on where they were at at the time.
01:41So why don't we broaden it out?
01:42Because in the one page statement that Universities Australia has put out, much is made about
01:48the direct and indirect economic costs that will come with the caps.
01:54What do you say they will be across the sector in terms of on-campus job losses in particular,
02:02be it on the academic staff or elsewhere on campus?
02:04Look, it's really hard to put an absolute number in that, but it is going to be substantial.
02:11I know that, and it impacts not just on us, but it impacts on the students that we support
02:18and the services we can offer, but also those around the university campuses.
02:24So the accommodation providers, the small businesses that rely on labour from international
02:29students in that job market.
02:32And so there's a whole range of impacts that we saw during the pandemic, and some of them
02:37will be mirrored with this lessening of demand.
02:43And in particular, we started to see that already with the ministerial visa directive,
02:48which came into place early this year.
02:51But for me, that has meant that we've frozen positions, that we've started to look at areas
02:58that we can downsize, and everybody's in that same situation.
03:01It will have a big impact.
03:03So in the case of QUT, and I'm sorry to jump around between your dual roles here, Margaret
03:08Shield, but in the specific case of QUT, what is the reduction in the draft number that's
03:14been communicated to you today, the reduction between your 2023 figure and what you're being
03:20handed today?
03:23So it's a complicated formula, but it's about, for us, about 10%.
03:32But the bigger concern for us is that we had plans to grow.
03:36So we've invested in engineering, which is in huge demand internationally, and we're
03:40really strong at.
03:41And we started to form the partnerships and the arrangements to grow that.
03:46Because we've historically had a low percentage, so we're only around 15% international, it's
03:52really impacted on our future growth, but also the investments that we're making in
03:58some of those areas.
03:59We'll have to either scale back or do something differently.
04:02Okay.
04:03Now, there will be, I imagine, a divergence of views among member universities at UA.
04:10Do you acknowledge that there will be winners as well as losers in the way this has been
04:15set up?
04:16Look, I think there are, because of the way it's been set up, but there are not too many
04:23winners, I think.
04:25But because international students don't choose to, they're in an international market.
04:31So if the University of Queensland or QUT's cap, then the students are not necessarily
04:37going to go to another Queensland university, they might go overseas, and that applies across
04:41the sector.
04:42So I think what we all were seeking was certainty, and also the way the visa, the Immigration
04:50Ministerial Visa Directive has been applied, we were seeking to have that stopped, because
04:56that's created a huge amount of uncertainty.
05:00This gives us more certainty, but that visa, that ministerial directive can still apply.
05:05And so that's still causing anxiety amongst us all, I think.
05:09All right.
05:10And a final one on the mechanics.
05:11Margaret, I noticed the Minister said today, if unis don't fill their cap, it could be
05:16reallocated to others.
05:19Does that soften the design of this for the bigger institutions, yours included?
05:25No, because, I mean, as I said, you can't direct students that way.
05:32So, you know, so we are in a market, and so redirecting students to places they don't
05:40want to go to, that, you know, that's not going to happen, they'll go somewhere else.
05:45And so that redirection is not necessarily, I don't think anybody will have too much trouble
05:51meeting this lower cap.