Arsenal's still in the hunt for the Premier League title, but everybody beats The Blades this season. Likewise, dominant performances against West Ham, Newcastle, and Liverpool were more a result of their opponents just not being at their best. Or so people say.
Adam Clery takes a look at Arsenal's latest run and thinks it's time to start giving Mikel Arteta and his side the respect they deserve.
Adam Clery takes a look at Arsenal's latest run and thinks it's time to start giving Mikel Arteta and his side the respect they deserve.
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00:00All right, so this was the Arsenal side you got against Sheffield United last night and
00:05to quote Tom York, no alarms and no surprises.
00:09Now, just before we get into all of this, if you are watching this video and you are
00:12an Arsenal fan, I, me personally, have just returned from a trip to Lake Como and oh,
00:17it's a really hard life where amongst other things, we sat down with Cesc Fabregas.
00:22Not to jinx it before I edit it, but it's probably the single best thing we've ever
00:25made and he is a massive, massive part of the story we're trying to tell over there.
00:29So if you don't want to miss that, please do consider subscribing to us here on 442
00:33and you'll see it when it exists.
00:35Anyway, though, Arsenal versus Sheffield United.
00:37This was the team and they absolutely batted them.
00:40They were 5-0 up inside 38 minutes, had 81% of the ball and denied Sheffield United so
00:47much as a single shot on target.
00:49Now, while I'm not saying that people aren't praising this Arsenal side for the things
00:53they're doing well, there was still an undertone last night in all the coverage and that everything
00:57has been published today that, alright, that's good, but it is only Sheffield United.
01:02But it's not only Sheffield United, it's every single Premier League game that Arsenal
01:06have played this year.
01:07Like if we measure their dominance in that game last night in terms of the amount of
01:11chances that the opposition were able to have and how good those chances were, then you
01:15can see they let Sheffield United have absolutely nothing.
01:19But then if we just flesh this right out to the start of the year, this is a staggering,
01:24staggering consistent.
01:25There's a whopping three shots on target for both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest
01:29right at the start of the year, but since then it's become an increasingly meagre feast.
01:33And yes, these numbers aren't exactly astonishing when they're next to names like Burnley or
01:37Sheffield United, but just take Newcastle and West Ham.
01:40They're two teams in the hunt for European football this season and while they've been
01:44up and down, they certainly are capable of scoring goals.
01:48And I presume you don't need me to tell you that Liverpool are also quite good and that
01:51just nobody ever restricts them to that few chances or that few good chances ever.
01:56And I won't dwell on this too long because I know a lot of people don't care about XG
02:00and think it's a bit of a weird stat, but it is useful for measuring like quality of
02:03chance, although obviously guarantees you absolutely nothing.
02:07Liverpool this season average about 2.2, 2.3 XG every single game.
02:12They're always going to create enough chances to get over two goals.
02:16Played Arsenal in that game, they made chances worth 0.3 XG.
02:21I can see why people were like, oh, really bad day at the office for Jurgen Klopp there.
02:26But when Arsenal do this to every team they play, you've got to start to look at that
02:31and think, actually, it's not that they're just having a bad game.
02:34It's that they're being made to have a bad game.
02:36So that then does beg the question.
02:38How do Arsenal make all these teams have a bad game?
02:42And the answer is in loads of different ways.
02:46Mikel Arteta is changing this team's approach on an almost game by game basis and getting
02:51it absolutely bang on.
02:53So I'll show you what I mean.
02:54Right. This is Arsenal's average positions across the 90 minutes against Sheffield United.
02:58And you can see pretty much a team in total dominance of that match.
03:02They're playing almost the entire game in the opposition's half.
03:05And if you look over this side, you can see Martinelli, Rice, Havertz and even Odegaard
03:09over here are all pushed really far forward.
03:12And then there's Bakayo Saka, who was pretty much just on holiday in this part of the pitch
03:17against their left back.
03:18It was incredibly dominant.
03:19They absolutely battered them with it.
03:20But you can see just by looking at it, it's like a picture perfect example of a 4-3-3
03:25with a striker who sort of drops away from the front line to let everybody else run into
03:29that space.
03:30Good job.
03:31But this is the team's average positions against Newcastle United.
03:34And despite it being the exact same players, it's no longer a picture perfect 4-3-3.
03:39There's something very different going on.
03:41They're still pushed up really high.
03:42We've got Jorginho in sort of the pivot role here.
03:44But Saka is actually playing a lot more in field and Odegaard seems to be getting into
03:49the space that's leaving.
03:50In fact, between Odegaard, Rice and Havertz, they all seem to be playing in this one pocket
03:54of space, almost like there was a big gap between Newcastle's midfield and defence that
03:59they all thought they needed to be in.
04:00If you go back and you watch how Arsenal were creating chances in those two games, it tells
04:04that kind of story.
04:05Like this is the opening goal against Sheffield United.
04:08You can see the 2-8s are acting as runners, supporting the centre forward.
04:11There's width being provided by the wide attack.
04:13And then you've got the rest of the defence pushed right up.
04:16Because of the lack of space in behind, they're all pretty much on a direct line here.
04:19And what they're going to do is use Jorginho, who's sitting off all of them, to sort of
04:23bounce a pass into the little bit of space.
04:25And that is exactly what they do.
04:27Saka passes Jorginho, he gets him in and then they all go from being on this same line.
04:31You probably have to watch this several times looped over and over.
04:34But the three players then in the box, who are potentially an option here, all make very
04:38different movements.
04:39Martin Odegaard faints to go towards the near post, but then pulls off to the penalty spot
04:43for a cutback.
04:44Jorginho, Tottenham, Rice goes across his marker, trying to get in at the near post
04:47and Kai Havertz dummies a little run and then goes to the back.
04:51Do we think, my friends, that of the three options those three players had in that scenario,
04:56it is just a coincidence that they all happened to pick a different one?
04:59But then if you go back to the Newcastle game, you don't see that shape at all.
05:03Because Newcastle were playing far further up the pitch, there was no need to press everybody
05:06up.
05:07So instead, we've got Odegaard here, Havertz here and Rice here, sitting off Newcastle's
05:12defensive line, but right behind their midfielders.
05:14So instead of waiting for that little bounce pass to try and get them in behind Newcastle's
05:18defence, they're waiting for the midfield to try and press up onto him here or White
05:22here or Kivio here, so they could get in that gap instead.
05:26But to quote Brian Butterfield, that's still not all.
05:31This is the average positions against Sheffield United, yep, good, you've seen that.
05:34This is the average positions against Newcastle United, yep, good, you've seen that.
05:38And this, this is the average positions against Liverpool.
05:42Again, if you are a subscriber to this channel, you have heard me use the term box midfield
05:46so many times over the past 12 months, I think I'm going to go insane every time I say it,
05:50but there is a picture perfect box midfield in this game.
05:55And barring one change, which was Zinchenko for Kivio, it is the exact same starting XI
06:00again.
06:01And this time, they're trying to get men round the ball in the centre of the pitch to offset
06:05Liverpool's ability to keep possession.
06:07And look, here it is live and in living colour.
06:09Sometimes they were having Havertz drop back to sort of form the point of it with Erdegaard
06:13or sometimes they were having White invert from the right hand side so Havertz could
06:16stay high and they could build it that way.
06:18But this was something they could just do on a whim.
06:21So far in 2024, Arsenal have turned up to every single Premier League game knowing exactly
06:28what they need to do to maximise their chances of getting a good result and doing it really
06:34effectively.
06:35And they're doing it so effectively that not only have they scored, I want to say 31 goals
06:41in seven matches, they have limited their opponents to two goals from 2.1 XG.
06:49Just for comparison here, the next lowest XG over the same number of games, right, is
06:54unsurprisingly Manchester City.
06:57And that is over 7 XG.
06:59But why does this XG stuff matter so much?
07:02I never normally talk about it in videos because I know some people don't like it as
07:05a stat and some people do.
07:07Why am I focusing on it here?
07:08Well, it's because that single stat, more than I think any other single bit of information,
07:14suggests to me that Arsenal might actually win this league.
07:18So look, if you're just, if you're not an XG person, right, just go with me on this
07:21for a couple of minutes.
07:22This is the XG against table in the Premier League, the very top of it.
07:26Obviously, no surprise whatsoever, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal, the three best
07:30teams by a mile in this division, have the lowest XG conceded both in total and per 90
07:35minutes this season.
07:36But even though all three of those numbers are incredibly good and probably good enough
07:40to win you a Premier League, Arsenal's is significantly better than both Liverpool's
07:45and Manchester City's.
07:46It's nearly half what Liverpool's is.
07:47And of course, while that is just a made up stat that is completely for nerds, I understand
07:52it's borne out in the actual evidence as well because Arsenal have conceded the fewest number
07:57of goals.
07:58So therefore, and I am going somewhere with this, if you put those two bits of information
08:01together, you can confidently say that Arsenal probably are the best defensive team in this
08:05league.
08:06They're controlling games so well that it's not just that their opponents keep missing
08:10chances and they're getting let off, they're not even letting them have good chances full
08:15stop.
08:16So they're not conceding.
08:17Now this might look a little bit crowded and busy, but I'm just going to bring up the final
08:19Premier League standings from like quite a lot of recent years.
08:23And I'm just going to highlight here one team from every season.
08:28Now, okay, you're looking at that and you're going, Adam, you've just simply highlighted
08:31the Premier League champions from all of those seasons.
08:33And yes, that is true.
08:35I have done that.
08:36But what I've also highlighted here is the team that conceded the fewest number of goals.
08:41Not necessarily the team that scored the most number of goals.
08:44You will note here in particular, Man City actually outscored Liverpool by nearly 20
08:49goals and still didn't win the league that year.
08:51Across all of these seasons, the team that has defended best, that has been able to restrict
08:57their opponent to the fewest number of chances, has been the team that has won the league.
09:02And right now, it isn't that Arsenal are slightly better than Liverpool or Manchester City at
09:06doing this, or that they're just shading them on these numbers.
09:09They are miles out in front at doing this.
09:11And just if I might editorialise slightly here, I'm not an Arsenal fan by any stretch
09:15of the imagination.
09:16It makes no difference to me whatsoever, whether it's them or it's Liverpool or Manchester
09:20City.
09:21I both like and dislike those clubs very equally, but I was watching that Sheffield United game
09:26and the way they just exploded out of the traps in the first couple of minutes, how
09:29they were just unrelenting, how they were getting goals from all areas of the pitch,
09:33how they had so many different options, so many different ideas for how they were going
09:37to hurt this side.
09:38And I just thought, surely, shoot, in a fair and just universe, surely that is the team
09:44that wins a league.
09:45But anyway, that's enough from me.
09:46I'm sure you've got plenty of other things to be getting on with today.
09:48If you did enjoy this video in any way, shape or form, please do consider subscribing to
09:52us here on 442.
09:53It's the one metric that is just really, really important for us.
09:56So if you would like to watch any of this in future, please do.
09:59Elsewhere, you get me on all of the socials at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y, the 442 socials
10:04are in the corner of the video.
10:06This is the old magazine now, I have to go get the new one.
10:09It's got Trent Alexander-Arnold on the cover and is dead good, if I do say so myself, so
10:13go and buy either of those if you spot them when you're out and about.
10:16Anyway, as ever, thank you very much for watching.
10:18Sincere apologies to Arsenal fans for the fact I have now almost certainly put some
10:22kind of Vicious Curse on them that means the next three games are going to be boring
10:27nil-nils.
10:28Sorry about that, but until next time, I just, I just think they can do it and I would just
10:34like them to do it.
10:36And that's my truth.
10:37Goodbye.