Since the atomic age began, many have wondered how world events would have played out if the atomic bomb was never dropped on Japan during WWII. Would Japan have surrendered without further bloodshed? What path would atomic energy have taken into our lives?
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00:00Since the Atomic Age began, many have wondered how world events would have played out if
00:04the atomic bomb was never dropped on Japan during World War II. Would Japan have surrendered
00:08without further bloodshed? What path would atomic energy have taken in our lives?
00:13The rationale behind using the atomic bomb on Japan was that it would help speed along
00:17the end of World War II.
00:18A better world shall emerge out of the blood and carnage of the past.
00:23It was never doubted that the end would come, or that Japan would fall — well, at least
00:28after Midway in June 1942. After that, it was just a matter of island-hopping all the
00:32way to Japan.
00:33By 1945, the last Axis power standing was suffering the effects of a naval blockade
00:37and a devastating firebomb campaign. The Battle of Okinawa cost the Allies dearly, but it
00:42was a crippling defeat for the Japanese. Morale was broken in many corners of the country.
00:47The question, then, is not whether Japan would have been defeated without the bomb, but how
00:51and at what cost. It might have been done peacefully.
00:54The Japanese government was trying to find a way out of war by 1945. Their objection
00:59wasn't to surrender, but to an unconditional surrender that might expose Emperor Hirohito
01:03to a war crimes trial. In other words, they wanted to surrender on their own terms, and
01:08that just wasn't going to fly in the eyes of the Americans.
01:10Significant elements of the Japanese military wanted to continue the fight, even if it meant
01:14utter ruin for their country. Death to them was preferable to surrender of any kind.
01:19Had they prevailed, World War II might have continued on for at least another year, with
01:23tens of thousands of casualties on both sides before Japan was fully defeated. This is still
01:27debated to this day. Was it really necessary to nuke Japan? There's certainly debate on
01:32either side, but it's important to remember that it took two bombs before they surrendered.
01:37Joseph Stalin was unimpressed by the atomic bomb, at least at first, according to Foreign
01:41Policy. He put more stock in armies and their mentality, but he was aware of the U.S. atomic
01:46program well before Hiroshima and did covet the bomb as a status symbol. It's unlikely
01:50to change in a timeline where America never deploys nuclear weapons against Japan, but
01:54had bombs never been dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or had they been detonated away
01:59from population centers as a warning, the proliferation of nuclear weapons would have
02:03played out very differently than our own history, one where Soviet espionage brought them atomic
02:07power by 1949.
02:09Demonstrating the power of the atom without widespread loss of life might have made international
02:13control over atomic energy, as proposed in the Baruch Plan, more feasible. But that assumes
02:18Russian disinterest in negotiations would be any less under those circumstances, just
02:22as likely as a world where the Cold War superpowers both have bombs without an example of their
02:26use in combat to act as a deterrent against setting more off. In such a world, the first
02:31bomb dropped may well have been during the Korean War, or the Vietnam War, or in any
02:35conflict of the 20th century where Cold War tensions drove hot clashes. In such a scenario,
02:40the first use may have inspired restraint afterward.
02:43But the bomb would have proliferated much further by that point, and hostile powers
02:46may have been unwilling to keep it in check if their enemies used it first.
02:51Much has been written about the possibility of a German nuclear program developing an
02:54atomic bomb before the U.S.
02:56This kind of uncertainty only served to fuel fears that the Nazis might be closer to building
03:02a bomb.
03:03In reality, the Nazis were never going to beat the Americans in that race, nor did they
03:07make much effort to do so. But what about the Japanese? Could the only nation to have
03:11experienced the horrors of atomic warfare become the first to hold the bomb, had things
03:15gone another way?
03:17Bunsaku Arakatsu, a Japanese physics professor, was approached about developing a nuclear
03:21bomb. Materials related to Arakatsu's efforts were covered in 2015, as Japan was confronting
03:26difficult questions about its military and civilian nuclear programs. They included blueprints
03:31for centrifuges and a targeted date of August 19th for their completion.
03:35Arakatsu's work is one of the only surviving pieces of evidence regarding Japan's nuclear
03:39ambitions during the war. Most were probably destroyed after the surrender.
03:43Japan lacked the uranium needed to produce an atomic weapon, and its efforts to obtain
03:47it through its colonies did not come together in time. But had they been able to secure
03:51enough, and if U.S. bombings hadn't disrupted tests, Japan could have produced the bomb.
03:55And they may well have used it against Allied forces if given time to finish their program.
04:00Nuclear weapons on their own likely wouldn't have reversed Japan's lagging fortunes in
04:031945, but they could have prolonged World War II and intensified the horrors of the
04:07Pacific theater.
04:09Hiroshima and Nagasaki left a deep psychological scar on Japan. While government policies since
04:14World War II have dealt with the ambiguities of a nuclear-armed world where Japan's only
04:19defense ally is the United States, anti-nuclear sentiment is high throughout the country.
04:23Indeed, many Japanese, including survivors of the atomic bombings, have felt betrayed
04:28by the government's evasiveness on the issue.
04:30Japan's nuclear energy program did not begin until 1966, and the 2011 Fukushima disaster
04:36prompted a fresh pause in utilizing atomic energy. But it has been suggested that, without
04:40the twin horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan could have moved on to peaceful nuclear
04:44energy much sooner. In a world where America never dropped the bombs or demonstrated its
04:49power without casualties, Japan would still surrender to the United States and rebuild
04:53after the war. In this scenario, it would have embraced the peaceful use of nuclear
04:57energy. It might even have taken a leading role in innovating civilian uses for atomic
05:01power, free as it would be in this case from the memory of its darker purposes.