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00:00Before we get into your NFL win totals, I wanted to show you Carver High's Sheet of
00:08Integrity and get your assessment of these NFL win totals, the Sheet of Integrity.
00:16All right, I'm staying away from the Patriots one.
00:21To take under, this is insane.
00:23I get it that Carver's getting them a plus one of six under.
00:29That to me, Scott, is a little bit of a stretch.
00:31I couldn't do that.
00:32The one I love, because you know I've been on the Packers this entire offseason, Packers
00:36fans gave me hate when I retweeted that video this morning.
00:39It was not good.
00:40See, I'm sorry.
00:41Lions fans did, because the Lions were my team for the previous two years.
00:44But I love the Packers over 9.5, by the way.
00:47That's minus 138.
00:48Remember when I told you, when these numbers came out back in May and June, I said, get
00:52on them now, because it's going to be harder.
00:55But it's still reasonable to minus 138 at 9.5.
00:59I love this one, because this is funny.
01:01I love the Jets over 9.5.
01:05Mike loves them under plus 132.
01:07See, he's a Bills fan, okay?
01:09He's a Jets hater.
01:11As he said off the air, we know the Jets are going to jet.
01:14But guess what?
01:15Aaron Rodgers is back.
01:16Scott, I've told you for weeks, if he plays 15 games, they're winning the AFC East, which
01:21we know they haven't done in a long, long time.
01:23But I'm telling you right now that Mike's going to be wrong about that one.
01:27We all agree on the Steelers over 8.5, that's plus 136.
01:31And I think, I like what Mike said here with the Chargers under 8.5 and plus 104.
01:37They're one of the top three most overhyped teams, because Jim Harbaugh, I get it, he's
01:42won everywhere.
01:43But they got issues on the roster.
01:44I don't agree with it.
01:45I do agree with Mike on the over, on the Bucs at over 7.5 with minus 132.
01:52And Scott, you and I have talked about this.
01:54The Bears are the number one hyped team.
01:56Matt Iberflug all of a sudden is going to win coach of the year, right?
02:00I like the under at plus 130, because again, they're super overhyped.
02:05The betting markets have pushed this number over.
02:07A lot of people are going over, not under like Mike and I do.
02:10I like that under.
02:12But overall here, the one that I just don't agree with, I disagree strongly, vehemently.
02:20The Jets, and I don't like to say the lock word, but I'm telling you, if Rodgers plays
02:2515 games or more, this team's healthy.
02:28They are a sure win to win the AFC.
02:32I love Kaplan.
02:32He's got him playing 15 games.
02:35Meanwhile, he played four snaps last season, and he was finished.
02:39All right, let's look at your win totals, Kap.
02:42Yep, yep, yep.
02:44So the ones that I like, Scott, do you want to start with the AFC?
02:48You want to start with, let's just go overall, right?
02:50Let's just go overall.
02:52And this is a big number, okay?
02:53The Niners at 10.5, at minus 190, Scott, they're going to win 12 to 13 games.
03:01Now, this is interesting.
03:03The total at 11.5, the overs plus 125, folks, that's where the value is.
03:09The Niners are the best NFC team.
03:11They got the IU contract straightened out.
03:13They got the Trent Williams thing straightened out.
03:15Now, McCaffrey has got that calf issue, which they've now listed more of Achilles.
03:20They're not worried about him playing, but you just mentioned it.
03:23Now, he's 28 years old.
03:25You worry about this.
03:25He had a calf injury or an issue late last season, so you got to watch this.
03:30But the over, clearly, at 11.5, that is a value of plus 125.
03:36That's one I like.
03:37Now, yes, I'm picking the Packers.
03:38I want to make this clear here.
03:39Yes, I'm picking the Packers to shock the world and win the NFC North.
03:44But 10.5 minus 135 for the Lions, they're going to win, okay?
03:49They're going to win 11 or 12 games.
03:51And the Packers, depending on which book you're looking at, which I've told you,
03:56since May, Scott, I've told you, at 9.5, again, minus 145, that's like stealing.
04:03Again, if they're healthy, they're going to get that easily.
04:06What about your Eagles?
04:07You have them winning 11 or more games.
04:11Yeah, I have them on there.
04:12The reason why I didn't put an X next to that one.
04:14Speaking of homers.
04:15No, but here's the thing, Scott.
04:16This is a tough matchup.
04:18Their schedule, I would call that moderate.
04:21I gave that a 2.5 schedule.
04:23That's sort of moderate for me, my five-point grading system.
04:27But the thing is, the roster is not great.
04:30The thing is, the coaching is going to be better.
04:33But again, Scott, I don't like them over 8.5 as much as other people.
04:3610.5 as much as other people do.