State of the Union: Is Scholz a chancellor on call?
This edition of State of the Union focuses on the fallout of regional elections in Germany, the latest spat between Hungary and the EU and Mongolia's refusal to arrest Vladimir Putin.
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00:00Hello and welcome to State of the Union, I'm Stefan Grobe in Brussels.
00:09If you love conflicts between the European Union and Hungary, you had a field day this
00:14week.
00:15The anti-immigrant government in Budapest ignored the deadline to pay a 200 million
00:20euro fine imposed by the European Court of Justice.
00:24The judges had found that Hungary committed an unprecedented and exceptionally serious
00:29breach of EU law when it put long-standing restrictions on the right to asylum.
00:35The dispute dates back to 2020 when the Hungarian authorities were heavily criticized for keeping
00:40asylum seekers in so-called transit zones under detention-like conditions.
00:47Now the European Commission has put in motion a procedure to collect the 200 million fine.
00:53I think, you know, we have the financial regulation in place, there is no bigger room
00:58here, we have to follow the applicable procedures.
01:00So we sent a second request in line with the procedure, this gives Hungary 15 calendar
01:07days to make the payment.
01:09We'll see what happens in two weeks.
01:11Yet the shocker of the week was not Hungary's refusal to pay its fine, but the outcome of
01:17regional elections in East Germany.
01:19For the first time since World War II, a hard right and fascist party emerged as the strongest
01:25force in a state election.
01:27A shocker, but not a surprise.
01:30German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw it coming.
01:33Even before election day, he announced a tougher immigration policy in a vain attempt to stem
01:38his social democratic party's bleeding at the polls.
01:42Germany has started deporting Afghan nationals with criminal records to their home country.
01:47Now, Scholz's colleague south of the border in Austria announced direct deportations to
01:52Afghanistan and Syria as well.
01:55On that, Vienna would be in close cooperation with Berlin.
01:59Joining me now is Raphael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations
02:21in Berlin.
02:22Welcome to the program.
02:23Thank you for having me.
02:25So Olaf Scholz's tougher stance on immigration didn't help him in the election.
02:30Is there a risk that his government will abandon other policy positions, like on Ukraine, to
02:37please the populist crowd?
02:39There's certainly a risk.
02:41I think the federal government working with the democratic opposition, the Christian Conservative
02:47Union, are trying to figure out a way to respond to this electoral victory of the AFP and BSW
02:54in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday.
02:56And migration policy seems to be certainly one of those areas that they have identified
03:01as needing to work on.
03:03But less emphasis on questions like Ukraine, the energy transformation, other somewhat
03:09contentious issues.
03:11So the results in East Germany were more of symbolic nature than they were of substance.
03:16I mean, we're talking about two small states with a combined population of seven percent
03:21of the German total.
03:23Is it still a national bellwether?
03:25It's certainly important to keep things in perspective.
03:28You're right to point out that Saxony and Thuringia are not the largest states of the
03:3116 in Germany.
03:33But it is the first time that a right-wing extremist party has a 30 percent of seats
03:39in any state parliament or the federal parliament in Germany since 1949, since the founding
03:44of the Federal Republic.
03:46And so it is, to some extent, a watershed moment that gives the AFD and the BSW some
03:52power, formally and informally, to influence policy.
03:56But more importantly, I think their success means that other parties have to respond to
04:00them, have to respond to their initiatives, to their rhetoric.
04:04And AFD and BSW have little interest in stability and order.
04:09They thrive on instability.
04:12And Chancellor Scholz has called the results bitter, urging the other parties to keep the
04:18right from power, which would force them into ideologically garbled coalitions.
04:23Can this be a successful way forward?
04:26It seems to me that this is a way forward, regardless of whether German policymakers
04:30like it or not.
04:31The political spectrum is becoming more fragmented.
04:34The far right, the far left are political forces to be recognized.
04:39And that means that the centrist political parties, those with a strong democratic commitment,
04:44have to find new ways to cooperate effectively, not only to advance important policy issues,
04:50but also to signal to voters that democratic governance can deliver results.
04:56At this point, it's hard to see how Scholz can politically survive federal elections
05:01a year from now, even if he has proven time and again that he has political stamina and
05:08cannot be underestimated.
05:10Your thoughts?
05:11The questions that are circulating in Berlin certainly are around his political survival.
05:16We should be counted out this time.
05:19But there are certainly questions that are coming up.
05:22The SPD, Olaf Scholz's own party, is trying to keep quiet at this time because there's
05:27another state election in Brandenburg in two and a half weeks.
05:31But afterwards, if the results for the SPD are as disastrous as in Saxony and Thuringia,
05:36I'm having a hard time believing that Olaf Scholz is still as comfortable in his leadership
05:41seat as he is now.
05:42All right.
05:43Rafael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, thanks for coming
05:47on the show today.
05:48My pleasure.
05:51This week, one country rarely in the news made headlines, Mongolia, for not arresting
05:57Vladimir Putin.
05:59Putin's visit to the East Asian neighbor was the first trip to a member state of the International
06:04Criminal Court in The Hague.
06:06Nearly 18 months ago, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Putin for alleged war crimes
06:12in connection with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
06:16Members of the court are treaty-bound to detain suspects, something Mongolia chose not to
06:22do, as you can see here.
06:25Instead, Putin was greeted in the capital Ulaanbaatar by an honor guard dressed in uniforms
06:32styled on those of 13th century ruler Genghis Khan.
06:37Ukraine and the EU have called on Mongolia to fulfill its obligations and place Putin
06:41under arrest without success.
06:44Will other ICC members act differently?
06:48Will Putin have the guts to find out?
06:50Well, we'll keep you posted.
06:53That's it for this edition.
06:54I'm Stefan Grobe.
06:57Have an excellent week.