Forget the polls, ditch the data, and stop sending journalists to swing state diners to interview undecided voters: historian Allan Lichtman already knows who is going to win the US presidential election. "Harris will win," Lichtman confidently announces to AFP.
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00:00I'm very confident that Harris will win because the keys don't easily change.
00:29They look at the big picture of incumbent strength and performance.
00:34Never have I changed a prediction because of anything that's happened in the so-called
00:40October surprise.
00:42That is a myth.
01:00We've long been the leading provider of support to Palestinians.
01:05I often have gotten the question when Biden was still the candidate, what does Biden have
01:09to do to win?
01:10And my answer was always govern well.
01:13And still, the thing that the Democrats could do to help themselves the most, very difficult,
01:18would be to broker a ceasefire and a hostage release in Gaza.
01:23Very difficult.
01:24You're dealing with Hamas on the one hand and the belligerent Netanyahu on the other
01:27hand.
01:37You know, I've been doing this for 40 years.
01:39I think I've heard every conceivable question.
01:42One that reverberates, though, that I've heard for 40 years is, aren't your keys subjective?
01:50And I, you know, obviously have an answer to that.
01:52They're not subjective.
01:54They're judgmental.
01:55We're dealing with human beings.
01:58Historians make judgments all the time.
02:00And the judgments are very tightly constrained.