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00:00Great race that is still ongoing for the wildcard,
00:06specifically in the National League.
00:08If you look right now, 64 losses for the Padres
00:11and the Diamondbacks, 65 for the Mets, 66
00:14for the Atlanta Braves, all of these teams
00:17within two and a half games of one another,
00:20the Mets have just been brilliant, man.
00:23I mean, they have been absolutely incredible
00:25and that has led to a Francisco Lindor MVP push.
00:29He is plus 550 to win the award.
00:31Shohei Ohtani checks in at minus 900.
00:37And I have a bet on Ohtani at a minus 105 price to win MVP.
00:44It just felt like the way he was hitting home runs
00:46and the rest of the competition wasn't gonna really
00:50be there for anybody to take it off of Shohei.
00:56And I look around right now and I still feel
00:59that Ohtani is likely your MVP.
01:01Obviously the books believe the same.
01:05But Francisco Lindor has an argument that worries me.
01:16Again, this is where award betting gets tricky.
01:20But I'll explain what doesn't need to be explained
01:25but just in case, these markets, these bets
01:29are not based on what we would do.
01:32It is what these voters are going to do.
01:36Jason Tatum finals MVP.
01:40You know, I learned, now I thought they would vote Tatum.
01:47Turns out that's not how they saw it.
01:49They went JB.
01:52That's just sometimes, you know,
01:53Lamar Jackson last year, right?
01:56Look, Lamar would have, I would have never considered
01:58Lamar for MVP last season.
02:01Legit wouldn't have been one of the top three choices
02:03on my personal ballot if I had a ballot.
02:09But I knew he was going to win the award.
02:13So I wasn't running to place wagers
02:16on guys underneath Lamar Jackson.
02:20That was unnecessary.
02:22With the Otani situation, I think he's presently MVP.
02:31If you look right now, he leads the National League
02:34in wins above replacement at 7.3.
02:37Lindor is third, in fact, with Matt Chapman
02:42in between the two.
02:43Shout out Matt Chapman and this incredible bounce back year
02:46that he's had in San Francisco.
02:48It's been pretty surprising,
02:51but he's such a good defensive player
02:55that that's obviously, you know, helped out a lot.
02:58He's ranked top five in both offensive and defensive war
03:01in the National League.
03:02And again, that's kind of carried the load there a lot
03:04for the Matt Chapman war season.
03:06That's a big reason why he's not in.
03:07You're not going to win MVP based
03:09on your unbelievable defensive war.
03:12It will help, but playing defense will matter for some.
03:19And why I do slightly worry as an Otani better.
03:24And I could very well just bet Lindor at a number
03:28and be done with it.
03:30But while I see that Otani minus 900
03:34and I think, do I need to?
03:37Well, the Lindor argument is he's an everyday player.
03:42And I would have told you that Otani preseason
03:45was not going to win MVP
03:47because of the fact that he's not a, not everyday player.
03:54He doesn't play the field.
03:57Since he's just hitting,
03:59that's going to cost Otani in this race.
04:06Well, the big thing that went Otani's way
04:09is the top two choices were injured.
04:14Last year's winner, Ronald Acuna Jr. hurt pretty early on
04:20and an early, not runaway,
04:24but an early favorite who was starting to create distance
04:28in his teammate Mookie Betts picks up an injury as well.
04:33And all of a sudden, Otani having a great year
04:39has a lot of runway in front of him.
04:42And he left Bryce Harper behind,
04:44which kind of was always going to be the case.