Harry Enten on how Harris debate showing may affect Trump’s chances
Harry Enten on how Harris debate showing may affect Trump’s chances
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00:00I think the saying goes debates don't win elections necessarily right both the
00:04Trump and Harris campaigns are spinning the debate as a win for their candidates.
00:07We wanted to know what debate watchers thought. CNN senior data reporter Harry
00:12Enden is here with a brand new suit by the way. He's also running the numbers
00:17that that's a new one I know I'm right right? It's a tan. I haven't worn this in
00:20years I don't know if it's brand new but it's brand new for you and I wanted to
00:23match you. A tan suit by the way. Tan and a little bit of tan. There we go. We're matching. All right what did you
00:27find here as far as how this was received? Yeah I'm just gonna use a
00:31scientific term and that is that the vice president crushed Donald Trump. All
00:36right so how did the vice president how much did she crush him by look at this
00:39first debate winner margins look at that she won by a 26 point margin nearly
00:43matching Trump's margin over Biden back in June when he won by 34 points very
00:48similar to Joe Biden's margin of over Donald Trump back in 2020 of 32 points
00:53and significantly higher than the 2016 margin that Hillary Clinton had over
00:57Donald Trump in their first debate just 13 points but the bottom line here is
01:01debate watchers and they actually leaned a little bit more Republican than the
01:05nation as a whole believed that Kamala Harris easily easily won this debate
01:10again the scientific term is she crushed former President Donald Trump. All right
01:14will we see though a change in the polls a rise or a bump for Harris? I think that
01:19the most likely scenario is that you will in fact see a rise in the polls why
01:23take a look at the last four times we had a first debate and look at those
01:27winners did they see a rise in the polls yes Mitt Romney in 2012 Hillary Clinton
01:322016 Joe Biden 2020 and Donald Trump earlier this year they all saw rises in
01:38the polls of two points or more and given how close this race is nationally
01:41given how close it is in the swing states do not be surprised if Kamala
01:46Harris jumps out to a lead nationally and don't be surprised if she jumps out
01:50to a slight small lead in those key battleground states it should still
01:54probably be a close race based upon history but no doubt at least based upon
01:58history we should expect Kamala Harris to receive a polling bump and a race as
02:02tight as this one that would certainly be welcomed. Okay so the big question is
02:05historically what does this all mean for the potential of winning in November
02:09because there have been debates that people have lost but they've won the
02:13election. Yeah there you go that's the key question Sarah Seidner you may
02:17receive a momentary polling bump but does that mean you're going to go on and
02:21win the election not necessarily because the fact is the elections all the way in
02:25November and by my calendar we're still in September and look at that lost the
02:29first debates first debate but won the election George W Bush in 2004 lost that
02:34first debate to John Kerry he won in the fall how about Barack Obama we mentioned
02:38Mitt Romney earlier he won Mitt Romney won that first debate but Barack Obama
02:42won in the fall and of course Donald Trump in 2016 he lost that first debate
02:47to Hillary Clinton but he went on to win in the fall so the bottom line is
02:50yes last night was good news for Kamala Harris she won the debate in the minds
02:54of debate watchers yes based upon history she should see a polling bump
02:58but that doesn't necessarily mean that she'll win come November. There's another
03:01big difference here whether or not there's going to be a second debate we
03:05heard Donald Trump early this morning saying that he doesn't think there needs
03:08to be one because he felt he won decisively that is not what the voters
03:11that you looked at said. With us now CNN's Eva McKend and Elena Treen they
03:16are in Philadelphia the dust still settling at the debate site. Eva what are
03:21you hearing from the Harris team this morning. Well John bottom line they
03:26believed it was a mission accomplished they set out to characterize the former
03:31president as fundamentally unserious as more caught up in his own grievances
03:36than the concerns of everyday Americans and as easily susceptible to being
03:41needled on trivial matters like crowd sizes on conspiracy theories like
03:47maligning immigrants for eating pets and in addition to this they also believe
03:52that the vice president commanded the stage and had a good mastery of the
03:57issues when it came to foreign policy when it came to the economy and
04:01especially when it came to reproductive rights that she illustrated real
04:06compassion let's listen. You want to talk about this is what people wanted
04:12pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term suffering from a
04:18miscarriage being denied care in an emergency room because the health care
04:22providers are afraid they might go to jail and she's bleeding out in a car in
04:26the parking lot she didn't want that. I absolutely support reinstating the
04:31protections of Roe v. Wade and as you rightly mentioned nowhere in America is
04:37a woman carrying a pregnancy to term and and in asking for an abortion that is
04:44not happening it's insulting to the women of America and though you could
04:52see campaign aides with a little pep in their step last night in the spin room
04:56so happy about the debate that they're calling for another one they are under
05:01no illusion Sarah and John that the next couple of weeks are going to be
05:05easy they still view themselves as the underdogs and know that there is going
05:10to be a difficult road ahead that is why they are already building out the week
05:14with the vice president campaigning both here in Pennsylvania and in North
05:18Carolina. And that road to the election getting shorter and shorter we are less
05:22than two months away I want to talk to you Elena about what Donald Trump is
05:26saying now he said this morning he was on Fox saying that he doesn't need to
05:29debate again because in his mind he won which as you have noted John that that
05:34is not what the majority of folks including voters have been saying but
05:39how does his campaign think that he did last night?
05:45Well between his campaign as well as many Republicans I spoke with last night
05:49I was texting with many of them throughout the debate I was in the spin
05:52room talking to his advisors there's a couple of things I think there's no
05:55question that people were very frustrated with his missed opportunities
05:59particularly on some of Harris's answers on the economy on her changing
06:03her positions they believe that that was an opportunity for Donald Trump to
06:07really set his own message to talk about the key issues they believe voters care
06:11about specifically the economy and immigration instead on many of those
06:15answers he took the bait from Harris and turned the entire conversation into an
06:20airing of grievances of talking about bizarre things like migrants eating pets
06:25as Eva pointed out something of course that we know is false and has been
06:28debunked there was some frustration around that now I did talk to some
06:33people as well who acknowledged Republicans acknowledged that he fell
06:37for the goading that Harris led him down and remember this was a key thing in my
06:43conversations with senior Trump advisors leading up to last night that they had
06:47advised Donald Trump on this was the key concern they said even more than the
06:51substance on the issues they were concerned about Donald Trump's tone and
06:54his temperament and going off onto these different tyrants really about
07:00random things that didn't relate to his own messaging and that's kind of what we
07:05saw last night it appears that they were not successful in that however a key
07:09claim that they continue to make and Donald Trump made this this morning is
07:11that the moderators were biased against Donald Trump that it was a three-on-one
07:16debate although I'd argue no we know that often when you're attacking the
07:19refs you're often on the losing side Sarah John there's a good point
07:23Elena Treen Eva McKen thank you both so much live from the city of brotherly
07:28love