Professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on Biden vs Trump
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00:00All right, my next guest says, pay no attention to the new poll I'm about to reference.
00:07But it does show Donald Trump with a steady lead in a head-to-head rematch against President
00:11Biden, putting Trump at 49%, Biden at 43.
00:15But my next guest goes as far as to say that you can't cosign that poll, and even the ones
00:19showing Trump losing, and just consigning to the flames.
00:23He insists Biden is still the man to beat in 2024.
00:27Just to tell you who I'm talking about, it's Professor Alan Lichtman, who has correctly
00:30predicted nine of the last ten elections.
00:34And the one he got wrong, 2000, he argues he actually got right, since Al Gore beat
00:38George W. Bush in the popular vote.
00:40So if not the polls, what's he using as his barometer?
00:44Well, Lichtman says we should follow his 13 keys to the White House.
00:48Now, they're all listed here for you, and they include things like incumbency and third-party
00:53candidates, the state of the economy, and, of course, social unrest.
00:56Now, if six or more go against the party in the White House, its candidate will lose.
01:02Fewer than six, its candidate will win.
01:04So where do things stand right now?
01:06Let's bring in Alan Lichtman to talk all about it.
01:09Thank you so much for being here.
01:10Listen, you have not made your official prediction yet.
01:12I see the keys.
01:14But why do you think that Biden is in the driver's seat now, when all these polls seem
01:18to say he should be worried?
01:22Remember, all the polls told us that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016.
01:28I predicted Trump would win.
01:30In 1988, as late as May and June, George H.W. Bush was trailing his opponent, Mike Dukakis,
01:37by 18 percentage points.
01:39He went on to win handily.
01:42Polls are snapshots.
01:43They are abused as predictors.
01:46The keys are different because they tap into the structure of how elections really work,
01:52which is that there are votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White
01:57House party.
01:58Now, why does Biden have an advantage?
02:01We hear all this consternation.
02:03There should have been a younger candidate.
02:05But look at this.
02:06Biden wins the incumbency key, which you saw on your chart.
02:10He wins the contest key because he's not seriously opposed to the nomination.
02:16That means six more of my keys would have to fall to predict his defeat.
02:22Right now, he only loses two.
02:25Party mandate based on House elections in 2022 and incumbent charisma because he's no
02:31Franklin Roosevelt.
02:33So four more keys would have to fall.
02:35And there are four shaky keys that I haven't called yet.
02:39And this is what your viewers should keep your eye on.
02:41Forget the pundits.
02:42Forget the polls.
02:43Third party.
02:44Will RFK Jr. emerge as we get closer as a truly significant third party candidate?
02:53Social unrest, which we now see emerging at campuses.
02:57Will that be sustained?
02:58We don't know.
02:59And, of course, foreign failure and success, which depend upon what's going to happen in
03:05the Middle East and in Ukraine.
03:07All four would have to go against Biden to predict his defeat.
03:11That's possible, but not highly likely.
03:14So what about the timeline for all this happens?
03:18Obviously, as you mentioned, some aspects of it, it's up and down depending on the day.
03:23The length of these perhaps shakiness of the keys might not endure, but they could go longer.
03:29Is there a particular cutoff when these keys have to be in hand?
03:35There's no exact cutoff.
03:37Because the keys fall into place very early.
03:39I predicted the hard-to-call 2012 election in 2010.
03:44But right now, because things are so fluid, I can't make a final prediction.
03:49But I will tell you, you can have me on again, I expect to make my final call in early August
03:55like I did in 2020.
03:56Oh, come on, give me a hint right now.
03:59Tell me.
04:00Tell me everything.
04:01Pretend it's just you and me, Alan.
04:04Don't you have a whole bunch of viewers also listening to you?
04:07Well, if you're going to be technical about it, yes.
04:12I will tell you, as I said, I'll reiterate, you know, if it wasn't Biden running, Democrats
04:18would have lost the incumbency key and the contest key and would be in a terrible position.
04:22But with Biden winning those two keys and only being down four, only being down two,
04:29the four shaky keys that I pointed out all would have to fall against him.
04:33So unlike the polls and the pundits, I've told you viewers exactly what they should
04:38look for over the next several months.
04:41That's as far as I can go right now.
04:43All right.
04:44Well, I appreciate that.
04:46Just next time we'll whisper.
04:47I think it'd be great.
04:48It's just you and I.
04:49Forget all the many viewers that are watching right now.
04:52Alan Lichtman, I'll see you back in August.
04:54The true inside scoop, but it's no different from what I've told the world.
04:58Oh, good.
04:59Well, I will buy the lunch, but you only get water.
05:02Thanks, Alan Lichtman.
05:03Nice to see you.
05:04Thanks so much.
05:05Anytime, Laura.
05:06It's always a pleasure.
05:07See you in August.
05:08OK.