• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00Week two of the 2024 National Football League season is already here our first short week Thursday night football game
00:07Of the year tonight in Miami and as they like to do
00:12Until we get to like week eight week nine week ten when the games start to lack a little bit of juice
00:17Early in the year some really marquee matchups including this divisional duel
00:22Between the Dolphins and the Bills tonight right now both teams listed as a co-favorite to win the AFC East
00:29Of course, they ended
00:312023 against one another in Western, New York
00:34It was Buffalo and Miami in a winner-take-all game for the divisional championship
00:40Buffalo won five straight to end the year and its fourth consecutive
00:44AFC East crown they face off tonight in
00:47South Florida, we'll get to the weather for the game. We'll get to the line in just a moment
00:52But Donnie we start with availability and for the Dolphins after coming back last week
00:57They'll hold off the Jacksonville Jaguars in their season opener winning 20 to 17. It wasn't the most prolific
01:04offensive attack out of Miami
01:07especially on the ground against the Jags maybe injury a
01:11Concern this from NFL Network's Ian Rappaport yesterday afternoon Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel
01:17Telling reporters that Raheem Mostert is out for Thursday night against the Bills as for the second year pro Devon H and he is a
01:24Game-time decision quote. We'll see. What do you make of the Dolphins backfield entering Thursday night football against Buffalo?
01:32That's it's big news
01:33It really is because you look at that Miami backfield and they're built like sprinters that entire offense both wide receivers
01:40Looking at waddle and also Tyreek Hill
01:42They can beat you in a foot race and the same thing with the running backs here
01:45You can hit a home run from any shot on the field with the Dolphins
01:48So now if you're telling me Raheem Mostert is going to miss this game and that's mr. Touchdown typically for the Miami Dolphins
01:54He sits this one out and then you're gonna tell me Devon H and who is built on speed, right Ben?
01:58He's dealing with an ankle injury limited in practice yesterday. They're gonna expect him to give it a go
02:03But that's not gonna be a hundred percent
02:05So now we're looking more on to a tag of I low it tonight and the wide receiving core might be Daniels a great head
02:10Coach he is gonna be fine at this spot
02:12But having said that boy if they were all full blast on this Thursday night, that would be a big advantage for the Miami Dolphins
02:17We'll see how they can overcome that but I do trust their offensive scheme and to attack of a low over 300 yards passing last
02:23Probably expect more of the same tonight
02:27338 and a touchdown last week that long strike to Tyree killin 80 order in the second half that sparked the comeback
02:34Over Jacksonville, they were down by 10 at the break
02:37They were down 14 zip early in the opening half against the Jaguars and the ground game was not great
02:4325 rushing attempts for Miami in its season opener last week against Jacksonville at home for only 81 yards
02:50Just 3.2 yards per pop a Chan did score the touchdown for Miami on the ground and had the most carries
02:58Rahim most are only six rush attempts for nine yards Jeff Wilson jr
03:03familiar with
03:05McDaniel dating back to their days in San Francisco did end the game as Miami's leading rusher
03:10He had five carries for 26 yards
03:14Now, let's talk about some of the weather Geron Arie here on Tuesday our native
03:20Miamian on the sports grid network Craig Mish as well
03:24Both did mention though DRS whether this weekend and throughout the week in South, Florida
03:29Not expected to be great a ton of storms throughout the afternoon hours today in Miami by the time we get to kick tonight around
03:37815 p.m. Local time supposed to taper off a chance of showers the wind cools down a little bit as well
03:44But we saw this total at 50 and a half earlier in the week now down by a full two points to 48 the hook
03:50But here's what I do like about you know, Hard Rock Stadium if anybody's ever been there. It looks beautiful
03:54It's aesthetically pleasing but for one area of the country
03:57It is kind of interesting that they didn't put a retractable roof on top
04:01Now I say this by saying I probably would like to retract the roof because then it gives you more clean playing field
04:06You have to worry about it as a handicapper
04:07But it's playing in the elements mean something here, you know
04:10As well as I do Ben if there was a retractable roof just like down there for the Miami Marlins who playing Lone Depot Park
04:15They never open the thing
04:16So I'm actually glad that there are elements and it can rain through the top of that stadium
04:20But also there are some detriments to doing that you tell me right now that I've been over 48 and a half or 49 and a
04:26Half the game is 7-7 in the first quarter and here comes the dilute deluge of rain coming down there
04:31I'm gonna be upset about that. It does add some intrigue and also all throughout the night
04:3525 to 30 percent precipitation
04:37But Miami weather different than the rest of the country at any moment
04:41You can get a ton of rain coming in even if it's in for three or four minutes spurts at that point something to keep
04:47An eye on I'm glad we have boots on the ground down there in Miami. Let's go. That's good. Oh, yes
04:51we
04:52Certainly do a two and a half point spread in favor of the Finns a full-blown breakdown in our two and throughout the three
05:00Hours on this show both teams coming back from down by as many as two scores
05:06Early in the opening half in their opener Buffalo at home knocking off, Arizona
05:1134 28
05:14Welcome to our number two live right here on this Thursday on the early line on SportsGrid. He is Donnie right side
05:21I am Ben Stevens so much football to break down in this second hour as week number two of the NFL season
05:28Kicks off tonight in Miami our first short week Thursday night football game of this season
05:35And it's a good one as they often are to kick off T and F
05:39It's week number two and a divisional duel between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. We will break down the game
05:46We will look at the individuals that will impact the outcome and we are expected to get a formal announcement
05:52In just a matter of moments about the PAC 12 may be coming back to life
05:59Yeah, kill that whack 12. We don't want to hear anything out there
06:02By the way, then they should have put that one out what Friday at 5 p.m. In a news dump
06:06So nobody even question what was taking place out there on the West Coast, but we do have an exciting action-packed our number two
06:11And you're right. It's a great game on a Thursday night
06:14I was looking so forth that Monday night football game between the 49ers and the Jets because just want to see that maybe a battle
06:20That may be five to six minutes the left to go in the game would still be in the balance
06:23That wasn't the case
06:24Hopefully we get those minds changed tonight and have a great performance because we brought it up yesterday Ben
06:29Plus 180 price on both of these teams to win that division the winner
06:32This game is gonna get a big leg up in the AFC East. So be fun to watch you play out
06:38very big leg up because the Jets were the only team out of the four and that includes the
06:43Patriots to lose their season opening game New York entered the year as a slight favorite in the competitive division
06:50That is at least among the top three teams the AFC East a division that Buffalo has won for four consecutive seasons
06:57So not just a good week to short week Thursday night football game
07:02But a very significant one that will have ramifications for the entirety of these 18 weeks around the NFL
07:09Let's get into the numbers for this game to kick off week number two tonight
07:14Miami at home in South Florida two and a half point favorite against Buffalo
07:19The total has worked its way down from where the number opened up earlier this week at 50 and a hook
07:2548 and a half DRS we mentioned the weather
07:27Storms throughout the afternoons a pretty nasty weather for a good majority of this weekend in South Florida
07:33But expected to taper off a little bit by the time we get the kick tonight a couple of showers
07:40maybe not that strong of
07:43Winds, what do you make of the matchup tonight between the Finns and the Bills?
07:47And is that usually the key Ben right we always talk about like there is rain that you worry about but it's more likely
07:51It's the rain and wind that really puts a damper on the situation now granted
07:55South Florida rain a lot different than rain around the country because it can come look like you're actually
08:00Stepping out of a shower and can get soaked in a matter of moments
08:03Which you do a lot of damage to that football field, but let's play it out as if we don't get those crazy rainstorms tonight
08:09It's a warm night
08:10But again, you're not playing on a Sunday afternoon where the opposing team's sideline is 30 degrees higher than the home team
08:15Because they sit them in the Sun smart move for home field advantage
08:19You won't have that in the night game
08:20And also the reason why you like sometimes Thursday football games been earlier in the season because you don't have the attrition
08:26Let me tell you something right now a first second or third week Thursday night game
08:30Hits a lot differently than a week eight nine or ten when you're already into the season bumps and bruises
08:36You can't heal up quickly
08:37But even though we saw game number one that backfield for the Miami Dolphins is banged up here
08:41But here's the interesting part
08:43If you look to the final score like let's just say the Arizona Buffalo Bills game
08:47You would have thought that Kyler Mary moved that football up and down the field through the air. That wasn't the case
08:52I believe only 162 yards passing and then you flip it over to the Miami Dolphins defense, which you say, okay
08:57They're probably gonna get to a hot lot of high scoring tilts. Technically last week. It wasn't but Trevor Lawrence
09:02I think also 162 yards passing as well
09:05So the defense is last week that could be a little bit maligned weren't really through the air
09:09But this week you're gonna have to be ready for that because I don't care what sort of past defense you have getting ready for
09:14To a tag of Iloa and those wide receivers
09:16You're gonna get beat up because I thought the Jacksonville Jaguars defense was pretty good last week only to find out to attack
09:21Iloa throws for well over 300 yards and Tyree killed anytime can hit those 80-yard touchdowns. So that's something to keep in mind
09:27I still do think though BAM that 48 and a half is gonna be susceptible to an over
09:32Because both of those quarterbacks both of those offenses can be electric at times
09:36But it's just interesting to see that they both held last week's quarterbacks at a hundred and sixty two yards
09:41And they're both pretty good quarterbacks that they held that to
09:44The Bills game against Arizona at home did have a total in the mid 40s 46 in a hook
09:50It went well well over part of that was game script dependent, right?
09:54Buffalo down 14 zip or 17 to 3 very early on it got closer by the break
10:00But it was a high scoring affair and the Bills needed to come back Josh Allen doing a good majority of that
10:06Allen for total touchdowns on Sunday for Buffalo
10:10232 yards two touchdowns through the air 39 yards on the ground two rushing scores as
10:16Well, Miami also down 14 to zip in the second quarter to Jacksonville down by double digits at the half
10:23They stormed all the way back
10:25338 yards for to a tongue of Iloa and 80 of them coming on one play a touchdown strike to
10:32Tyreek Hill what's so interesting to me Donnie is when you look at the numbers for this game
10:38We'll get to the totals in just a moment that DRS was discussing
10:41But Miami's nearly a full field goal favorite at home two and a half point spread
10:46We know how good the Dolphins have been when booked as the favorite side
10:51Expected to win a matchup under Mike McDaniel since he became the head coach in Miami since 2022 the Dolphins 18 and 4
10:59Straight up since the start of 2022 as
11:02The favorite they are 9 and 3 against the spread since the start of last year 9 and 2 ATS in
11:092023 did not cover as a three and a half point favorite against
11:14Jacksonville Miami from the odds makers expected perspective
11:18I should say is expected to win this game
11:21But we know about to a tongue of Iloa's record against teams that are factoring into the playoff race
11:27It's not great. Do you think Miami deserves to be the short favorite on this short week? I
11:33Do because it's it's still one of the bigger
11:36Advantages in professional sports to have that Thursday night football game at home because again the away team is playing a game on Sunday
11:43They're basically a day off Monday walk through Tuesday
11:45Which is typically their day off on a plane on Wednesday after another walkthrough and playing on Thursday
11:50so at least if you're the home team you have more that acclimation process because you don't have to have a
11:54Built-in travel day at that point and also you're the home team. You have the home crowd
11:57It should be to your advantage and we're not looking for upsets like nobody's gonna say Wow
12:01I'm shocked that the Miami Dolphins are a favorite here
12:03If you're giving three points away for home field advantage, these two teams are equal and that's why we're expecting a great outcome
12:09But I'm not shocked that the Miami Dolphins are the favorites here
12:11Somewhat healthy at the key positions because from the running backs don't matter
12:15We'll see if you can get Devon a Chan to be 80% of what he is. That'll be just fine for running back tonight. Yep
12:23The Buffalo Bills have won four consecutive
12:25AFC East crown starting in the 2020 NFL season storming back last year to win their final five games including the week 18
12:33Regular season finale against Miami to claim that fourth straight
12:38Divisional title in that span since the start of 2020 Buffalo's only been booked as a dog
12:4413 total times three of them coming last year even with Buffalo starting off just six and six
12:50They are six and seven straight up seven and six against the spread as in
12:56Underdog, that's where things are as of this moment
12:59And again, Donnie overall outlook for these two teams both having to come back in their season openers to start this season
13:061 and 0 Miami over Jacksonville Buffalo over Arizona by the hook neither of these two clubs covered in
13:14The season opener, but when you take the season-long perspective on Miami on Buffalo two teams
13:20We expect to factor into the playoff race and in the race for an AFC East crown
13:24What is your early thought about both the Finns and the Bills?
13:27It's interesting because I as the way we look at the game tonight
13:30It's basically a pick'em right outside of home field advantage
13:33You see that graphic up there the Bills at ten and a half and the Dolphins at nine and a half
13:36I think they're on a similar trajectory here
13:38So if I'm looking to bet on either one of these teams
13:41I probably would take the Dolphins because the pricing is better nine and a half team wins here better to pricing here to win the
13:47AFC championship better pricing to win a Super Bowl than the Buffalo Bills
13:51That's the only way I would lean now again this game as we talked about both of these teams plus 180 to win that division
13:56This is a massive game
13:57You get the leg up in the division and the tiebreaker starting on your end now
14:00If you are the Buffalo Bills and you go to Miami and steal a game early
14:04You know Miami has to go up the Buffalo and colder temperatures and you can get that to low sprint here
14:08Which would probably give you the division at that point
14:11so it's a much bigger game for me for the Buffalo Bills than it is gives me for the Miami Dolphins and is the Buffalo
14:16Bills just because you're home you want to take care of business on your own field and we'll see how it plays out tonight
14:21But a good game nonetheless. We're expecting some fireworks. It should be a good one
14:25Next game between these two week number one nine to start off November in Western, New York
14:30I'm funny boy coming your way now
14:31We continue our deep dive into the start of week number two
14:35It is Thursday night football in this evening in Miami between the Dolphins
14:40And the Bills DRS and the crew on pro football today or at least the pro football today crew will be live tonight on
14:47this Thursday for all of your in-game live betting needs for T and
14:53F DRS how excited are you to be back with the guys in studio? Just like you were on Monday
14:59No, it's gonna be a good time tonight nonetheless
15:01And sometimes you just dictate it on basically how good we expect that football game to be so the expectations are high
15:07I mean there's times where you sit there on a Thursday football game week 11
15:10Week 12 like what are we actually doing here tonight? We getting in who's the quarterback gonna play?
15:14You got superstars all over the board in a meaningful game early in the season
15:18The vibes will be extremely high same game parlays in game live betting. We'll have everything coverage for you
15:24They're starting at 815 with the boys in studio. So yes vibes are high. We're gonna do very well tonight
15:29I could feel it and we'll watch it play out. I
15:32Can't wait to see what your in-game bets are for this one based on the pregame numbers and how it's expected to go a
15:39Quarterback battle between Josh Allen and to a tongue of Iloa tonight on this Thursday in South Beach
15:46We start with Allen who had four total touchdowns on Sunday in Western, New York to spark that offense for Buffalo and lead the comeback
15:55244 and a half his passing yards prop tonight 37 in a hook on the ground
16:00He was under through the air on Sunday
16:02But over on the ground in that anytime touchdown prop would have cashed twice
16:08Technically as he had two rushing scores Miami's defense against Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense. What do you expect?
16:15It's gonna be good here because and the reason I want to bring up game number one
16:18He was everything to that offense
16:21We know how the NFL works if you are going to be everything as a quarterback
16:26You might be nothing by week 12 because you're gonna be banged up and on the injured reserve list
16:30I don't know how you can run your offense just through your quarterback, but it felt like that was taking place now
16:36We're gonna talk a little bit later about some running back props that I think makes some sense for the Buffalo Bills
16:40But the ultimate running back prop seems like it's with Josh Allen
16:43Did you watch that game like they get inside the five-yard line and maybe the most unstoppable play in football?
16:47Which used to be the tush push. It's like okay first down
16:50We run Josh Allen on a quarterback keeper or a naked bootkeeper
16:54Not even a naked bootkeep just run him on his own sweep and it seems like he finds the ends on time and time again
16:59And he's not one of those quarterbacks that shies away from contact
17:02You saw him get beat up just a bit which injured his non-throwing left hand
17:06So I say to myself if you're looking for a rushing touchdown
17:09Yes, I don't think Josh Allen in the middle of a play is going I can run this in from five yards
17:14But I don't know if I want to take a shot to my hand
17:16Let me flip the ball out of bounds or try to throw it into the back of the end zone
17:19But I am a little bit more cautionary this week at handling that on a Thursday night where maybe the Buffalo Bills coaching staffs
17:26Love you, you're an MVP you carried us back
17:29You did what you had to do in a football game that we were behind two touchdowns
17:32I get it, but live the fight another day
17:34Maybe we call a little bit more handoffs in the red zone
17:37But I got to tell you this over one and a half touchdown passes tonight on both of these quarterbacks
17:41We'll get the two attack below as well
17:43I really like that, but it is interesting to see the statistics from last week both of these teams much maligned
17:49I guess coming into the season whether it's injuries or question marks on the defense
17:53They were very good past defenses last week here. So something to look forward to tonight
17:57Maybe these quarterbacks can't get off the way we think they will because those defenses played quite well last week
18:03Yep, we'll talk about to a tongue of Iloa right here right now somehow some way Donnie despite Miami only scoring 20 points
18:10And it seemed like a very slow start in South Beach last Sunday against Jacksonville
18:15You look at the numbers to a tongue of Iloa ends up with more than 330 passing yards
18:20338 to be exact and a touchdown 80 coming on one play
18:25It was the touchdown toss to Tyreek Hill who broke away from the Jacksonville
18:30Secondary to 68 and a half is the number more than 24 yards in front of Josh Allen tonight or exactly
18:3724 yards in front of Allen tonight. What do you expect out of to a tongue of Iloa to start off week number two? I
18:44Expect good things as well
18:45And also you're looking at some of those past completion numbers and past attempt numbers that might be going a little bit higher
18:50Not because the expectations of a shootout and a total around 48 and a half man
18:54It's just a simple thought process that you say let's just keep this simple if Raheem
18:58Mostard is not there and Devon a Chan is banged up a little bit
19:02Yes, Jeff Wilson is a capable back
19:03But are we really handing it off as much as we may be thought and all you need to know is those lines are pretty
19:08Sharp, it could be the difference been between one and two passes, which means cashing a bet or losing a bet
19:13I'm expecting much more in the arm of to attack a below which is kind of funny in week
19:17Number one wasn't a high-scoring game against Jackson
19:19But would easily went over the 300 yard marker because the one thing you do know at any given time in
19:2575 yard 80 yard touchdown pass is in that repertoire for the Miami offense
19:29You saw it last week down in the doldrums down to touch about it's gonna be down 17 to 7 whoop one play
19:3517 14 80 yards momentum completely flips here. That's the fun part about it
19:39I do think that Buffalo Bills defense is not as good nearly as it was the past two to three years and you should be
19:45Able to take advantage of that which tonight again banged up running backs
19:49I think they lean a little bit more towards our lower dropping back wise
19:52We still expect him to be bad what high 280s to 90s approaching 300 yards
19:57So I would lean towards the over but I think there might be a little bit more drop backs than anticipated just due to the running
20:03back room availability tonight for the Dolphins
20:06Yeah
20:06the past completions prop 22 and a half the attempts at 33 and a hook in terms of the number to a tongue-of-iloa
20:14Over this number in four of the first five games from last year good weather to start
20:18Things are hot when September rolls around in the first few weeks of the NFL season again
20:24The weather could dictate some things tonight in terms of game flow
20:27Especially some rain and wind if that's what we see in some stormy South Florida weather on this Thursday night
20:34Do for 338 last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars who did not have a great passing defense by any means a season ago
20:42And ended up in the second half getting exposed in the secondary
20:47Once again the IRS when you look at the number again of two sixty eight and a half or two a tongue-of-iloa
20:52It's a number he went over in his first two home games of the year last year three of the first five for Miami a
20:59Season ago were on the road their first two home games right from the jump to start
21:042024 both teams only allowing
21:08162 yards to each quarterback
21:10Last week Kyla Murray a buck 62 against Buffalo Trevor Lawrence after a great opening half
21:16Stalled out in the second as the Jaguars were shut out only a buck 62 against Miami
21:22Yeah, both of these defenses actually played much much better in the second halves than the first half
21:26So that's also something to keep an eye on tonight, but it is a shorter preparation process
21:30But the one thing you do like if you're both coaches, you know the game plans, you know
21:34The styles are both of these teams. I'm interested to see what Joe Brady does on offense tonight again a little bit banged up quarterback
21:40Nobody's expecting anything different because maybe you'd say if it was a broken finger or broken or banged up hand on the throwing hand
21:46Maybe that's the problem for Josh Young clean game tonight
21:49We'll talk about the playmakers up next
21:53Let's look at the playmakers tonight and their props associated for Thursday night football in Miami
21:59To start week number two between the Dolphins and the Bills
22:03There was a lot of optimism DRS this year in Buffalo out of second year tight end from Utah Dalton King K
22:09He is still the highest receiving yards prop player for Buffalo tonight
22:1542 and a half but in the season opener for the Bills against the Cardinals
22:19He had one catch on two targets for only 11 yards
22:24It was the rookie wideout out of Florida State via, Michigan State Keon Coleman the leading receiver for Buffalo on Sunday
22:31Four grabs five targets 51 yards. We'll get to the explosive playmakers for Miami in just a moment
22:38What do you make of Buffalo tonight?
22:40Assuming the health of the Bills is in a better spot than Miami
22:44At least the non left throwing hand of Josh Allen not expected a factor in this evening
22:50I do like over two touchdown passes here for Josh Allen. I think it makes a lot of sense
22:55And again, we're looking at a total around 50. We're expecting points both teams probably score at least three touchdowns
22:59So that is a good look here
23:00But also last week Ben my best bet on the pro football today show on Sunday was Josh Allen to throw more than one and a
23:07Touchdown passes which again is sue and he got that you know the basis for that for me, Ben
23:10It wasn't at the wide receiving core like Shakira's
23:13Okay
23:13I get it call moves a rookie coming in Matt Collins as the third wide receiver now Shakira and Hollins caught both of those
23:18Touchdowns, but if you ask me for my breakdown
23:20I actually thought the red zone targets would be really high for the tight ends and at least one if not two touchdown passes could
23:26Have been to the tight end
23:27So if I still keep that same energy this week and say it's a wide receiving core that I'm all not all in love with
23:32Just yet. I always like the two options at tight end
23:35So if you're looking at Kincaid that number should increase tonight, those red zone targets should be there
23:40He should be more active in the game plan. So I do agree with you
23:43But could Keon Coleman a couple catches last week
23:45But it's still hard Ben to trust a rookie this early in his career Khalil Shakira down the stretch list like the year
23:51Excuse me, one of my favorite wideout sure Buffalo Bills
23:53But I do agree Dalton Kincaid should be the lead dog here
23:56And I'm looking for red zone targets with a legitimate chance to catch a touchdown
24:00Khalil Shakira right at this number last week 42 yards on three
24:05Grabs only three targets
24:07I will say though DRS over this number of 40 and a half in nine of the final 14
24:13For Buffalo a season ago, including the two playoff games having 44 in the division around against Kansas City
24:20The reason you bring that up is because it's a new look roster for Buffalo on both sides of the football
24:25But for Josh Allen, it might take a little bit of time at least for Keon Coleman
24:30Despite being the leading receiver or Mac Hollins despite catching a touchdown last week
24:35Khalil Shakira is really the guy that remains from the Bills wide receiver core of a season
24:41Ago, of course now we go to Miami Tyreek Hill seven grabs
24:46130 yards and a touchdown in week number one despite being detained outside of the stadium in a scary situation
24:54Prior to kick of the season opener Jalen Waddle also a big game as the Dolphins were moving it through the air in that
25:01Second half when you look at Miami knowing that more than likely we're not going to see where he most or tonight
25:07And we're not exactly sure the availability or if he will be even near
25:1295 to 100 percent of Devon a Chan. What do you make of Miami's skill players on the outside?
25:18It's kind of hard to gauge because the one thing that you do like is yes
25:22Everybody wants to take Tyreek Hill every single week touchdown prop each week
25:25It probably makes a lot of sense to do that. But sometimes those numbers betting wise right 93 and a half
25:30So if you just slightly round that up, it's basically a hundred yards the anticipation. Do you think he can get there?
25:36Yes, but if you equate it to baseball, it's like hey, I got a great pitch on the mound strikeout prop nine and a half
25:41Well, he's actually got to get the ten here. There could be a lot of factors to keep them under that
25:44Why do you usually love secondary options?
25:47And maybe one of the best secondary options in the NFL is Jalen Waddle 65 and a half much more palatable, right?
25:52Hey 25 yards receiving it
25:54They have he can easily get that in the second half with one catch and last week
25:58He did have one of those big catches the same thing with Tyreek Hill
26:01So tight ends for me completely out in Miami running backs too much up in the air tonight to take a guess and say hey
26:06Jeff Wilson season only see he gets three carries and maybe two catches out of the backfield not good enough
26:11You are going to zero in on Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle already love to attack about lower over one and a half touchdown passes
26:17So there Ben somebody has to catch at least two touchdown passes. It's probably coming from the wide receivers
26:22So instead of the yards for Tyreek Hill, which he can get at 93 and a half
26:25I'd much more likely go with a touchdown catch for Tyreek Hill in that situation. I
26:31Would agree minus 130 not all that steep of a price for Hill to find the end zone
26:36I love Jalen Waddle early last year before he was banged up week number three first two games of the season that secondary option
26:43Well over this number of 65 and a half broke through the century mark 109 yards on five grabs a week ago
26:51Against Jacksonville James Cook 71 yards on the ground, but hard-earned
26:55He had 18 carries one that went for 15 yards
26:59So that meant 17 carries for 56 yards outside of the big bop
27:04But three catches for 32 yards
27:07I would look for cook out of the backfield tonight the passing game for Buffalo
27:12You thought futures fusion now that the regular season has been started in the National Football League was done
27:20No, it continues after week one setting the stage for week number two on this Thursday night
27:26that starts this second week of
27:28the season so Donnie futures fusion a
27:31reminder for everybody out there a category on the fan duel sports book to combine a couple of things and what would be a
27:37Season-long parlay and we like to do them comparing a couple of the bets against each other
27:43Let's start with two teams expected to contend for conference grounds and maybe a Super Bowl
27:49Championship this season the angle the Eagles to be the NFC number one seed and win the NFC
27:55It's a nine-to-one price or the Chiefs to be the AFC number one seed and when the Super Bowl take it a step further
28:03Also at 9 to 1 if you had to wager on one of these two bets, what would your futures fusion selection be?
28:11Let's take a look at both of them, right? Because if you're lining these up you first look at price point
28:15They're both the same 9 to 1 price 9 to 1 price
28:17So there's no just I'll just take the higher one and we'll flip a coin and go that direction
28:21Now also, let's take a look at what changes here each team supposed to be the number one seed the Chiefs and the Eagles
28:26But the changes on these bets which differentiated one team just has to win the NFC
28:31Which means they show up in the Super Bowl and don't have to win it the Kansas City Chiefs
28:35We're asking them to show up in the Super Bowl and win the Super Bowl
28:38So again as an Eagles fan would love to make that bet at a 9 to 1 price
28:42Do I think they're the best team in the NFC? No, I don't right now
28:45So that would mean that they would get the number one seed by being the best regular season team and also throughout the playoffs
28:51Being the best NFC team. I don't know if that is a cable of that
28:54Yes, I don't know if that's gonna be the ending solution
28:57But you've heard me been talked so much in the offseason about how good I think the Kansas City Chiefs are if I didn't think
29:03They were a great team last year and won the Super Bowl. They improved their team this year
29:07Why would I not think that they cannot be the number one overall seed in the AFC and win the Super Bowl once again?
29:12Which would make it three straight times. So it's simple to me
29:16I'm just gonna stick to what I know when I was talking about in the offseason
29:19rooting for the Eagles think they could be a quality team but betting on the Chiefs and betting them to be the best team that
29:25Seems like a better feasible option to me the nine-to-one price
29:28I'm going with the Chiefs to be the number one seed and win the Super Bowl. That's the fusion bet I'd make
29:33Yeah, DRS
29:34It's hard to argue from the odds perspective as the Chiefs are favored in both of those
29:40categories to be the number one seed in the AFC at plus
29:44170 in front of the Texans in case he has the highest win total in that conference
29:4911 and a half at a overjuiced of minus 144
29:53They are also the favorite to win Super Bowl 59 half a dollar in front of San Francisco
29:59The Eagles are not the favorite in either of the two categories in their futures
30:04Fusion San Francisco is the favorite to win the NFC as of this moment in
30:10San Francisco is the favorite to be the number one overall seed in the NFC plus 234 the Niners
30:17More than half in front plus 230 the Eagles of plus 470
30:21So you slash that price in half and then take off ten more cents?
30:25He gets San Francisco with a pretty large gap in front of Philadelphia
30:29And the Niners more than a dollar favorite in front of the Eagles to be that number one overall seed in the NFC the Niners
30:36At this moment actually have the highest win total
30:39Technically in the National Football League twelve and a half is the number the under has a slight bit of juice again
30:44KC 11 and a half the over has more juice there at minus 1
30:4944 so again
30:50I do agree with the Chiefs
30:52But I actually feel just based on my own pedigree that Philadelphia is my pick to win the NFC
30:58So I like that component of it don't necessarily
31:01Need the Eagles to be the top overall seed in the conference at the end of the regular season
31:07To make good on the second part of that equation next futures fusion and a fun one
31:13NFC West teams to win 35 or more combined games
31:17It's even money plus 100 or the NFC South teams to win 30 or less combined games at plus
31:25110 which side you choosing?
31:28Yeah, we don't like math out here Ben
31:30The reason I bring this up is I don't know how many people are actually going to the FanDuel sports book and betting either
31:34One of these because when you look at it, okay, let's start with the first one NFC West teams to win 35 plus combined games
31:41So you're telling me I got to go through four different schedules and four different outcomes here and then grab a computer
31:47Decide to see which way I'm going to go and then on the opposite side the same thing
31:51NFC South teams to win 30 or less games at a plus 110 price now if we look at it optimistically, right?
31:56We do understand the teams with chances to win a championship. One of those at least resides in the NFC West
32:02It's the San Francisco 49ers. They were tremendous on opening night. You say, you know what?
32:06That's probably a double-digit win team 12
32:08Maybe 13 wins if they can stay healthy Christian McCaffrey comes back sooner than later, right?
32:13Then you take a look at the NFC South and say well
32:15We know they might have the single worst team in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers
32:20But sometimes you have to do some, you know
32:21Little bit of math skills in this one if we look at the NFC South teams to win 30 or less
32:26That's really hard to do. Let's just take a look at the upper echelon of that division, which we just removed Carolina out, right?
32:32Atlanta Falcons
32:33I did have some decent aspirations for them this year and I think they can win that division and I still do
32:38Tampa Bay looked good on opening day Baker made from that offense look solid here
32:41And then you take a look at the New Orleans Saints who maybe were the most surprising team of week
32:45Number one crushing the Carolina Panthers. So if you use those three teams Ben and say, okay
32:50What's the average for them nine wins nine wins nine wins, right? Just the average I'm talking about between those three
32:56Yeah, that gets you to 27 wins
32:57Which means I understand Carolina is supposed to stink with 3 and 14 is so ethically bad
33:04But would still be able to catch that ticket technically towards the over
33:08So for me NFC South teams to win 30 or less games plus one time
33:13I'm not betting that because I do think those three teams can account for 27
33:17I just need three wins out of the Panthers, which I should get just by you know
33:20Blindly walking or betting with them so that NFC West 35 plus combined games at plus 100
33:26I probably more likely to take that one than the NFC South teams to win less than 30 games. That's a crazy number
33:34Yeah, so I would agree with you DRS
33:36I actually think we will see at least 31 combined wins out of the NFC South
33:41The good thing is they all have to play each other
33:43And again, the Falcons win total prior to the year was nine and a half the overhead the juice now the under has the juice
33:49But let's just say it's nine wins for Atlanta
33:51Tampa's win total eight and a half the under has the juice eight wins fine, New Orleans seven and a half over has the juice
33:58Eight wins. We're talking 25
34:0025
34:01Carolina gives you five. There you go. And I actually think yeah, like what we saw DRS back in 2022
34:08It's not going to be the Panthers bringing up the rear with only two wins
34:11Well, you had a division where the Bucs won the title were they losing record?
34:16But the three teams that finished either tied for last or in second depending on how you categorize it
34:22We're all seven and ten where the basement is not as deep this year
34:26Although Carolina, I don't expect to win seven games
34:29Necessarily, we have a little bit more futures fusion on the other side a Thursday night football inspired
34:36Futures fusion live right here on this Thursday on the early line again
34:41We love the futures fusion on the fan duel sportsbook season-long bets combined together to form your kind of futures parlay
34:48But we use two of them and compare them against each other
34:52Now the odds for the first two that we did very similar for the Eagles and Chiefs
34:58It was both nine to one for the NFC West teams having 35 plus wins or the NFC South teams having 30 or less wins
35:06It was plus 100 for the West plus 110 for the South
35:10These odds are very very different for the Dolphins to win the AFC East or the AFC
35:18championship plus
35:19145 the bills are the number one seed in the AFC or when the AFC crowd is plus
35:27470 so which way you go?
35:29It's a no-brainer even though look everybody wants the higher price point of plus 470 pays out better, right?
35:34But the bills are the AFC number one seed or when the AFC title you get two shots at that, right?
35:40So you say okay if I finishes the third seed if I go in and win the AFC title
35:44I can still cash that ticket
35:46But I don't think the Buffalo Bill's gonna be the number one seeks already told you it's gonna be the Kansas City Chiefs and even
35:50If are the Buffalo Bills can finish like high up and get home field advantage
35:54We saw that last year where the Kansas City Chiefs came in the town and still beat them anyway
35:58So it is a nice price of plus 470
36:00But I'm not as high on the Buffalo Bills as I was in the offseason and granted
36:04This would mean a crazy one to ask if they have lost to the Arizona Cardinals on opening day
36:09Which they were down to touchdowns. I do give them credit for coming back
36:12But it's not as if you came back and get the football team expected to do a lot of things now you flip over to the
36:16Miami Dolphins they are extremely talented
36:18They're one of those top three teams in the AFC East with a legitimate chance to win that division
36:23So if we're saying to win the AFC East and or the AFC title you still do get two looks at that because if you don't
36:28Win the division you can still make the playoffs and still make a run in the playoffs
36:31But I do think the Miami Dolphins have a legitimate chance to win the AFC East even though it's a lower price point Ben
36:37I'll go plus 145 and say give me the two shots here at a much easier number
36:42It makes a lot of sense, right? You're specifically looking at one outcome for Miami
36:47That's beat Jordan the regular season as you have been for the two years under Mike McDaniel in win a division
36:54That's it. That's done. You take care of that
36:56It's not Buffalo trying to win its division and have a better record than the Ravens the Bengals the Steelers the Chiefs
37:04Whoever it might be the Texans elsewhere in the conference or when you get to the postseason and you compare those two
37:12Prices now what is interesting Donnie just looking at the numbers here in this moment to win the division
37:18The two teams are co-favorites that the Bills and the Dolphins both at a plus
37:23180 number
37:25Buffalo has a much shorter price than Miami to win the AFC title
37:297 to 1 Miami at 10 to 1 the Jets another AFC East team sandwiched in between
37:3550 cents behind the Bills at plus
37:38750 now here's the reason why I kind of like Buffalo's futures fusion more
37:44But I would not bet it because I'd rather just bet Buffalo to win the AFC at plus 700 because I actually think
37:52That is the most likely outcome of all four
37:56Buffalo number one seed Buffalo AFC championship Miami AFC East
38:01Miami AFC championship if I had to tell you which one I like the most it would be the Bills
38:07Winning the AFC tap title when all is said and done the Dolphins haven't won a playoff game since the year
38:132000 in Miami had pole
38:15position last year to win the AFC East had a very difficult schedule down the stretch against teams that would be in the playoffs lost a
38:23Ton of them booked as an underdog in a ton of them and Buffalo won five straight including the regular season finale in week
38:3118 to take the AFC East for a fourth consecutive year
38:35And if it's not just Buffalo, I still think the New York Jets are going to be fine and contending for the divisional crown as well
38:42Yeah, the Jets probably should pick it up this weekend to be at least one and one then you're also gonna see a team in
38:47The AFC East also be one and one because why two teams are playing tonight at 1 and 0
38:51Somebody has to lose that game and also you might have a good argument here too at the back end of it
38:55I don't like to take a look at other seasons per se been like how long it's been since the Miami Dolphins have won a
39:00Playoff game the same way look at the New York Jets like oh, they don't even make the playoffs
39:02So, how could they actually run a division?
39:04You want to take a look at this season in its totality?
39:06But it does feel like the Buffalo Bills technically would be better off in the playoffs than the Miami Dolphins now granted
39:12Listen, they were so injured went on the road
39:14But then anybody look at that game to Kansas City in the freezing cold like this is like the worst-case scenario
39:18For the Dolphins
39:19So when the Dolphins go on the road in the playoffs to colder conditions or if the Buffalo Bills on the road to colder conditions
39:25Who's more adept to probably handle that atmosphere Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills and having said that if Josh Allen the Buffalo Bills make
39:31The playoffs that means that young wide-receiving core really stepped up throughout the season
39:35So they might be a better version of themselves by week 15 16 and 17 so I can see
39:41Miami's win total nine and a half overjuiced Buffalo's win total ten and a half the under has substantial juice
39:47But Buffalo still a peg in front of Miami from where the odds may proceed at our three
39:55Welcome to our number three our third and final live right here on the early line on
40:00Sports grid
40:01It is a Thursday and a Thursday in football season means the start of a new NFL week week number two
40:09Underway tonight in Miami with a divisional duel in a good one to start the first short week Thursday night football game of the year
40:17It's the Dolphins playing host to the Buffalo Bills. He is Donnie right side
40:21I am Ben Stevens plenty of breakdowns come your way for Thursday night football in this third and final hour a few
40:28Major League Baseball thoughts on this Thursday as well. One more hour to go up until 11 a.m. Eastern
40:35Yeah, I love the way the NFL by the way, Ben started off the season, right?
40:39Yeah to playoff caliber teams obviously opening night on Thursday last weekend with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens yet to playoff teams
40:45But we thought the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers roll that into Sunday night football the Rams and Detroit to playoff teams
40:52They're Monday night football. We expect the Jets and the Niners to get there and then right back on Thursday night football
40:58You have the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills two teams
41:00We expect to get to the play also
41:02Fantastic stuff to talk about and a lot of fun tonight because I think those quarterbacks gonna throw some touchdown passes tonight
41:1048 and a half is the total we expect if the weather does cooperate a lot of offense tonight in
41:17South Florida and DRS that was part of what we had to ask the people out there as they get ready for week number two
41:23In Miami playing host to Buffalo. What is the best bet for Thursday night football?
41:28That was the question all of you and fade the public
41:38At sports grid on Twitter the Finns a home favorite
41:42But less than a field goal laying two and a half Buffalo the underdog for what is going to be just the 14th time
41:49In the last four plus seasons now in a week number two total at 48 and a hook and we like the over or
41:57The under so when it came to the public DRS people going with the bills
42:02Dolphins second amount of the vote and then
42:0523% on the over of 48 and a hook 300 votes in the FTP poll to start this Thursday
42:11Yeah, pretty good
42:12That shows the excitement out there where people are ready for this football game to see how it plays out and we expect a close
42:17Game, which is why it's a minus two and a half point spread you take a look at the Buffalo Bills
42:20It's interesting this too because for me
42:22It's always been this way if you are looking to take a game on Thursday night
42:27You start with the home team and you end with the home team
42:30If you don't like the home team, you just move on and try to find some other angles to bet here
42:35So it is interesting to see if the public goes. I don't give a damn about that Donnie. It's a road team Buffalo Bills
42:40They're getting points. I think they're the better team and that's the way they're voted
42:43Now take a look at the over-under typically on Thursday night primetime games
42:47It hasn't been a great run of a lot of overs here quite frankly
42:50Most of these games have been going under but I also buck that trend a little bit by saying it's early in the season
42:56Depending on the weather tonight
42:57Let's just say it doesn't get crazy light winds warm temperatures and maybe a little rain here or there that shouldn't affect anything
43:03That happens on the field. And again, if this game was week 13 or 14 as opposed to week number two
43:08That's a completely different story. I believe they can get over the total tonight
43:12So I voted not with a side with a total and I went with the over which 23% of these votes did as well
43:20so for the second
43:21Consecutive week when we look at the fade the public poll or maybe it was Monday night football
43:26I vote with where the public feels at this moment the bills plus two and a half on Monday night DRS when we did this
43:33with the 49ers and the Jets
43:35I wanted to lay four and a half with the Niners dropped to three and a half by game time with the absence of Christian
43:41McCaffrey and I was like man, here I am eating the public shock
43:45Once again with San Francisco did not like the public being on my side. I just think Buffalo's the better team
43:52Frankly, I'm gonna bet Buffalo money line tonight over the Dolphins
43:56Just how I feel with some injuries to the backfield for Miami
44:00I don't know if the public is necessarily going to sway me at this moment when the line opened up at 50 and a half
44:07I really thought to myself we're gonna see some points tonight early in the year short week
44:12Sure, the offenses might be a little bit slow
44:14But maybe the defense is not ready to keep pace then the weather reports drop this total by two maybe short week Thursday night football
44:22Dropping this total and influencing that number as well. But like you DRS, I do think we see some offense tonight again
44:30The Dolphins in week number one against Jacksonville tied for the second highest total of the entire week one slate at forty nine and a half
44:37stayed well under
44:3920 to 17 Jacksonville led 17 to 7 at the break did not score again in the final two quarters
44:45Miami did rally but a bunch of field goals in that football game
44:51I do think the Dolphins offense is a little bit better
44:54Tonight even with the injuries to the backfield and I think Buffalo does enough to push us to an over a forty eight and a half
45:01Yeah, keep in mind Jalen Ramsey limited in practice this week as well the all-pro corner back here for the Miami Dolphins
45:06And again, you're gonna have those bumps and bruises
45:08Just not as amplified as what they would be late in the season and also a key ingredient to from those prop betting perspectives
45:14You have to understand this Raheem. Mostard is not going to play tonight. It said they're not gonna put him on
45:18I or he'll be back sooner than later. So this might be maybe a multiple week injury
45:22So now you have to take a look and say all right Devon H and now is going to be a game time decision
45:27And if anybody doesn't understand what that means that means an hour and a half to two hours before the game
45:32He's gonna go out in the field and try to run around to see if he can play
45:35Does that tell you right off the bat?
45:37He's probably not healthy enough to play in this game
45:38And also if this was a Thursday football game, which it is and not a Sunday game
45:42Maybe you could play on Sunday
45:44But also you want to risk further injuring that ankle to Devon H and be down to starting running backs for multiple weeks as opposed
45:50To one week so something to play into that also
45:52Which means much more on the arm of to a tag of a lower that we turned off that was gives me starting the show
45:57We started to say, you know, or at least myself
45:59I think there's gonna be more chances of drop backs and completions for a tag of a lower than usual
46:04And also that helps with the touchdown market. These guys are two
46:08Unbelievable running backs in the red zone to scoring touchdowns, which now won't be there
46:12Is that an Alex in goal touchdown here that you sneak in from the fullback position?
46:16Do you trust Jeff Wilson or you say, you know what? We're not risking this
46:19We're gonna throw the football into the end zone, which means more touchdown passes for two
46:24Last week Jeff Wilson ended up being the Dolphins leading rusher five carries for 26 yards
46:30Devon H and had the most rush attempts ten of them
46:33The only one in double digits 24 yards and did score a touchdown when I look at this game though from a prop perspective
46:40I'm gonna look at the second option for the wide receiver in Miami
46:44Just because Tyree kills number is already ninety three and a half, which is a little bit ludicrous
46:48I wouldn't recommend betting the under I just don't really want to bet the top of the market
46:52Jalen, waddle 65 and a hook makes a lot of sense to me
46:55I also look at the other running back the RS in James Cook not necessarily on the ground
47:01But in terms of his receiving yards prop tonight at 18 and a half three grabs
47:0732 yards we discussed this in terms of the talent offensively that Josh Allen has at his disposal
47:13We thought it would be Dalton Kincaid week one one grab 11 yards two targets
47:18It was the rookie key on Coleman the leading receiver with 51 yards
47:22We talked about the familiarity still with Khalil Shakur who had 42 yards three grabs
47:28442 yards and a touchdown that connection still is there with James Cook as well
47:34I think those are my two favorite props for tonight waddle receiving yards James Cook receiving yards as well. I
47:41Like James Cook and also sometimes it's not so much just about the X's and O's but what you try to think of how that
47:46Game plan is going to play out and it's simple for me. Sometimes you saw last week once again, Josh Allen in a game
47:52They absolutely had to win couldn't go. Oh, we'd won against one of the worst teams in football
47:56He had to do everything in his power to win that game, which included two touchdown passes
48:00But also two athletic running plays to get into the end zone next score to third touchdown, but got called back, which is insane
48:06You can't have your quarterback doing that
48:08It's one thing been to do a quarterback sneak from the one yard line
48:11It's another to have your guy jumping from the five yard line and landing on his head in the end zone
48:15Repeatedly eventually that's going to take a toll
48:18The reason I bring that up is James Cook a capable running back looked great last week speed shifty
48:24Hand him the football in the red zone. It'll work out just fine with touchdown
48:27So actually like James Cook tonight on the ground for yardage and also more importantly
48:31I think he finds pay dirt because I don't think Joe Brady is going to continue to dial up
48:35Quarterback keepers on the outside when you can just hand it off to your running back and save your quarterback a lot of wear and
48:41Tear particularly been on a short week. Yeah
48:44Yeah, absolutely
48:45So it's part of what the joke was for Josh Allen for total scores to through the air
48:50But to calling his own name and finding Peter on the ground and people are like Josh
48:55He can't be taking those hits hand it off to James cook and let him find Peter
48:59Maybe a couple of angry fantasy owners as well cook by the way over his receiving yards
49:05Probably 18 and a hook nine times last year in the regular season plenty more on the early line in the daily basis next

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