Decision 2024
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TVTranscript
00:00New Quinnipiac polling out today shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump
00:05in three blue wall states.
00:08She's up by six points in Pennsylvania, five points in Michigan and one point in Wisconsin,
00:14the only state within the polls margin of error.
00:17This may be part of a more national trend in Harris's favor.
00:21The latest Des Moines Register poll from Iowa shows Trump leading by just four points in
00:25that state after leading President Biden by 18 points in June.
00:30Joining me now is Simon Rosenberg, veteran political strategist and author of the Hopium
00:35Chronicles on Substack.
00:37Simon, thank you for being here tonight.
00:39I think a lot of people would like a dose of hopium right now.
00:42I wonder if you see a connection between Harris gaining maybe as many as 14 points in Iowa,
00:50a largely white state, and doing better potentially in these three blue wall states.
00:54Do you see, I mean, should we be connecting dots there about what white working class
00:58voters might be doing or is that overstating the case?
01:01Well, here's what we know, right?
01:03Since the debate, the election has probably shifted one or two points or even a little
01:07bit more in her favor.
01:09I mean, she was up two to three points before the debate.
01:12There's been a lot of polling post the debate and it's all been sort of saying the same
01:16thing, which is that she's gained ground and we'll know how much ground she's gained over
01:20the next few weeks.
01:21But you've started also seeing a lot of state polls that show her also at or above Biden's
01:272020 numbers.
01:28I mean, the way to think about the race right now is that she's sitting basically where
01:31Joe Biden was in 2020 either at the floor and in some states she's doing better.
01:37I mean, those polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Biden only won those states by a point and
01:42she's up by three, four points.
01:44And so I think we should feel good about where we are.
01:47I mean, this has been, look, the debate really helped her and it really hurt Donald Trump.
01:51And I think the aftermath, which you just covered of the debate and the way they try
01:55to change the subject clumsily to this crazy cats and dogs, eating cats and dog stuff has
02:01been a huge failure for them.
02:03And so I feel like we're in a strong place right now and where things are better.
02:08And we also, I think the most important thing we're about to see as the voting season begins
02:13on Friday with early in-person voting is that we are just have a much stronger capacity
02:17to close.
02:18And so it's much more likely that we gain a little bit in the coming months than them
02:24in my view.
02:25In your blog today talking about the race as it stands and the relative strength of
02:29the Democratic ticket, you noted that one of the most remarkable and encouraging bits
02:33of data in recent polling is how well like the Democratic ticket is.
02:37Both Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are in or close to positive territory on what
02:42is called favorables and unfavorables in most polls.
02:47Do you attribute that to the likability just as it is of the Democratic ticket?
02:51Or is it just the repellent nature of the narrative that the lies that Donald Trump
02:56is focused on?
02:57Because it is.
02:58I mean, I think it does gin up his base, but man, is it distasteful to a lot of Americans,
03:03even if they don't have opinions about Haitian migrants?
03:05Yeah, look, the debate did what the campaign wanted it to do, which is they created this
03:10contrast between this capable and modern, smart vice president and him.
03:17The ugliness of Trump and all the ugliness of MAGA.
03:20I mean, it was just on full display for 90 minutes and it changed the race.
03:25And so I think that one of the things that is remarkable is there's just generally a
03:29view in polling that we're now at a point, given polarization or partisanship, that we
03:35may never see a president again in positive territory and in favorables and unfavorables.
03:40And right now, Harris is in either even favorable or even in some polls she's above.
03:45It's showing and it's a big problem for the Republicans, because as we get to the end
03:49here where people have to make their decisions, the people are undecided.
03:52Our side is seen as much more favorable and much more in a much more favorable light than
03:57they are.
03:58And I think that Trump, the other thing is that Trump continues to make this negative
04:02noise.
04:03I mean, I think that we have a joyous, positive message to take to the American people.
04:07All they have is anger and ugliness.
04:09And I think that's also not going to serve them well when they're behind in the race
04:13as they are now.
04:14They don't really have the ability to generate positive stories about their about their ticket
04:18anymore.
04:20And that's a big problem when you're losing.
04:22Do you think the Teamsters non endorsement matters?
04:25It's I think 56.9 percent, 59.6 percent of the union supported a Trump endorsement compared
04:31to 34 percent supporting a Harris endorsement.
04:34Does that worry you?
04:35Yeah, we'll see.
04:36I mean, I think that we have to recognize as a starting place is that this ticket has
04:40more enthusiastic union support than any ticket in modern times for the Democratic Party.
04:46And we also saw a lot of state and local Teamsters in the battlegrounds endorsed today.
04:51So they were essentially, even though the national didn't endorse in the battlegrounds
04:55where it really matters, you saw a lot of endorsements from local Teamster unions.
05:00So I think net net, we still will probably have the most enthusiastic labor support that
05:05the Democratic tickets had in in many decades.
05:08And so I don't know that it's really going to be consequential, but we'll see.
05:11I mean, I feel like the campaign has worked very, very hard to make unions and union workers
05:17and union leaders central and to everything that they're doing.
05:20And they were very on display in the convention.
05:22Right.
05:23And so I think that net net, this is I think we're in good shape.
05:26But certainly we've got to try to pull as many of these Teamsters into our coalition
05:30as possible.
05:31Simon Rosenberg, Hopium dealer for Americans on the brink.
05:35Thank you for your time and thought, Simon, tonight.
05:37Really appreciate it.
05:39Always good to see you.
05:40Thank you so much.