日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月21日 中東ポケベル爆発の謎…イスラエルどう動く?

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日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月21日 中東ポケベル爆発の謎…イスラエルどう動く?
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00:00Good morning.
00:02Good morning.
00:04This is the news at SADA on September 21.
00:07Now, let me introduce our guest of the day.
00:11Professor Satoshi Ikeuchi of Tokyo University's
00:14Center for Advanced Science and Technology Research,
00:17specializing in regional research in China and the East.
00:21Good morning.
00:22Good morning.
00:23I'm Satoshi Ikeuchi,
00:25a professor at the Center for Advanced Science and Technology Research.
00:29Good morning.
00:30Good morning.
00:31Thank you for having me.
00:32Thank you for having me.
00:33He is Tsuneo Watanabe,
00:35a member of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation,
00:37who is well-versed in foreign policy,
00:39security policy, and American foreign policy.
00:41Good morning.
00:42Thank you for having me.
00:43Thank you for having me.
00:45He is Mr. Buntaro Kuroi,
00:47a military journalist who has been covering
00:49the Middle East, Russia and China.
00:51Good morning.
00:52Good morning.
00:53Thank you for having me.
00:54Today, we are joined by these three guests.
00:58Now, let's take a look at what's going on.
01:05First, let's talk about the next target,
01:08the whereabouts of the Netanyahu's military operation.
01:11Today, we will talk about the Middle East situation.
01:13That's right.
01:14The day before yesterday, the Pockebels exploded,
01:17which was very shocking.
01:20Even now, there is still a conflict between
01:24Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel,
01:27and the stage of the battle is changing.
01:31Today, I would like to focus on that.
01:34Yes.
01:35Pockebels.
01:36It is said that everyone owns a bomb.
01:39It was shocking news.
01:41Yes.
01:42It's a familiar thing.
01:44We also have a lot of such communication devices.
01:48I would like to ask the experts,
01:51including those involved,
01:54about the fact that it can turn into such a bomb.
01:59Yes.
02:00And there are many other things.
02:02Just recently, on the far left is China.
02:05Yes.
02:06This is a shocking news from the Japanese school.
02:12And recently, there was an announcement that
02:15Japan's aquaculture will be temporarily abolished.
02:20Mr. Watanabe, how should we look at this?
02:23Yes.
02:24American SYNCTARC has done a lot of research
02:27on China's forced foreign exchange.
02:30Forced foreign exchange.
02:31Forced foreign exchange.
02:32In other words, they are trying to get political information
02:36by putting pressure on things that are economically disadvantageous.
02:40We once banned rare earths from Japan.
02:43Yes.
02:44Looking at the results,
02:46rare earths are the same,
02:48but if they are not effective at a certain time,
02:51they will naturally be temporarily abolished.
02:55It's not a bad thing,
02:57but in the meantime, related companies are suffering a lot.
03:01I think that will continue in the future,
03:04but if you think that it will continue forever
03:08I don't think there will be any good results.
03:11This is a lesson that we need to look at in the future,
03:14but I think it is necessary to look at this process
03:17all over the world until the end.
03:20As for this Fukushima incident,
03:23from the Chinese side,
03:25I think there was an expectation that
03:27more and more allies would come,
03:29and that Korea and Taiwan would become allies.
03:32Is it true that Japan responded to this in a certain way?
03:36Yes.
03:37Also, Taiwan,
03:39and this time it was Korea,
03:42took a position to believe in IAEA's scientific technology.
03:48Southeast Asia is pretty much the same.
03:51So how important is diplomacy in Japan?
03:55Yes.
03:56After this, we have a special report.
03:59The communication device used by the Shia Islamic militia,
04:02Hezbollah, exploded in Aizu.
04:04Israel's involvement is suspected.
04:06Who did it and for what purpose?
04:18On the 17th, in Lebanon,
04:20a communication device used by the Shia Islamic militia,
04:23Hezbollah, exploded in Aizu.
04:30According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health,
04:3212 people were killed,
04:34and more than 2,300 injured.
04:40On the 18th,
04:42a transceiver used by Hezbollah,
04:45exploded in Lebanon.
04:4837 people died in two days,
04:51and about 3,000 were injured.
04:57According to Reuters,
04:59on the 17th,
05:01Hezbollah ordered 5,000 devices from a Taiwanese manufacturer
05:05and brought them to Lebanon at the beginning of this year.
05:09The Taiwanese manufacturer
05:11said that a company in Hungary
05:13with the right to use its own brand
05:15sold the devices.
05:22The New York Times in the US
05:24said that the Hungarian company was a paper company
05:27and that it was an Israeli intelligence agency's hideout,
05:30and that Israel had prepared a small amount of explosives in advance.
05:38Also, the transceiver that exploded on the 18th
05:41had a Japanese manufacturer's name
05:43and a Japanese-made label.
05:47The Japanese manufacturer
05:48explained that it had been sold out about 10 years ago,
05:53and that there was no hologram sticker to prevent fabrication,
05:57and that it was not possible to verify
06:00whether it was a product shipped from the company.
06:06Regarding the two-day transceiver explosion,
06:09Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah,
06:12declared that Israel had crossed all red lines
06:15and that this was a declaration of war.
06:18He declared his return to Israel.
06:23Was Israel involved?
06:29If Israel was involved,
06:32where was the target?
06:38In this situation,
06:39the attack on Israel and Hezbollah
06:42is getting more and more intense.
06:45On the 19th, Israel concentrated its air strikes on the south of Lebanon
06:51and destroyed about 100 rocket launchers.
06:59On the 20th, it bombed the capital of Lebanon, Beirut,
07:03and killed Hezbollah's leader,
07:06Commander Ibrahim Akil.
07:09Meanwhile, on the 20th,
07:12Hezbollah also bombed Israel
07:15with a total of 150 rocket launchers.
07:18The Israeli media reported this.
07:23How intense will the battle with Hezbollah be?
07:28Also, Netanyahu's administration,
07:31which seems to be focusing on the battle with Hezbollah,
07:35will continue the battle in Gaza,
07:38the capital of Palestine?
07:45On the 18th,
07:47the US military and the Israeli government
07:50will visit Egypt
07:52to discuss a new ceasefire.
07:59Recently,
08:00the US proposed to reduce the number of Israeli bases in Gaza
08:04to a large extent.
08:08The US has also proposed
08:10to reduce the number of Israeli bases in Gaza
08:13to a large extent.
08:16The US has also proposed
08:18to reduce the number of Israeli bases in Gaza
08:21to a large extent.
08:23But it is clear that Hamas has refused.
08:30Will there be any progress
08:33in the ceasefire negotiations?
08:38We will now hear from three experts
08:41on the Middle East situation.
08:44First,
08:45we will hear the truth of the Pocket Bell explosion.
08:49First,
08:50we will look at what we know now.
08:53On the 17th,
08:54Pocket Bell,
08:55which was owned by Hezbollah,
08:57was detonated all at once
08:59in Lebanon.
09:00Pocket Bell is reported to be owned by a Taiwanese manufacturer.
09:04On the 18th,
09:05a communication device such as a transceiver
09:08used by Hezbollah fighters in Beirut
09:11was also detonated.
09:13On the 19th,
09:14the Japanese manufacturer's name was written on the device.
09:1837 people, including civilians,
09:20were killed in two days.
09:222,931 people were injured.
09:27Before looking at the details,
09:30I would like to ask you
09:32about the overall acceptance of this move.
09:35Mr. Ikeuchi,
09:36what do you think?
09:38I think about why it happened now.
09:41Pocket Bell had been preparing for a long time
09:44to launch such a bomb
09:46against Hezbollah.
09:48It was to be used
09:50when it was needed.
09:52It was important that it was now.
09:55Probably,
09:56on the Israeli side,
09:58it was a strategy to reduce Hezbollah's power
10:02not only to the destruction of Hezbollah
10:06in the south of Lebanon or Beirut,
10:09but also to the destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
10:13At that time,
10:14I think it was the time to avoid
10:16getting caught in the mud
10:18and to weaken Hezbollah
10:20by all means.
10:22Then,
10:23Hezbollah would use
10:25what it had hidden until now.
10:28Also,
10:29the U.S. presidential election
10:31and the Biden administration
10:33were in full swing.
10:35There was almost no pressure from the U.S.
10:38on the U.S. president.
10:40The U.S. president said,
10:42this is a big problem for the U.S.
10:44and the U.S. president should stop it.
10:47So,
10:48Israel is trying to do
10:50a lot of strategies
10:52until the end of the year.
10:54And,
10:55the U.S. president said,
10:57the U.S. will not be able to
10:59put pressure on Israel.
11:01So,
11:02now is the chance.
11:04I think that
11:06Hezbollah will launch a rocket
11:08and evacuate about 60,000 people.
11:10To make it possible,
11:12Hezbollah will destroy
11:14Hezbollah's front-line rocket forces
11:16and build a back-up base.
11:18Especially,
11:20last week,
11:22Hezbollah intensified its attack.
11:24Last week,
11:26Hezbollah's military-made base
11:28in Syria,
11:30the base of power,
11:32Hezbollah sent special forces
11:34to destroy Hezbollah's base.
11:36After that,
11:38Hezbollah started to attack
11:40Hezbollah's back-up bases
11:42in the Beqaa Plateau.
11:44So,
11:46Hezbollah will be damaged.
11:48So,
11:50Hezbollah will be damaged.
11:52So,
11:54Hezbollah will be damaged.
11:56So,
11:58Hezbollah will be damaged.
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50:44So,

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