BREAKING Kamala Harris Now Leading in EVERY Major Election Forecast
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00:00Hey everyone, it's Collins from Discover Politics.
00:04Today is Monday, September 23rd, 2024, and we will be discussing a number of various
00:09national estimates for the 2024 presidential election.
00:13The forecasts we will be looking at today are the Economist Forecast, the Head-to-Head
00:17National 2024 Race, the Race to the White House Forecast, Nate Silver's Forecast,
00:23the FiveThirtyEight Forecast, and the JHK Forecast here, an overall network of forecasts
00:28that have come in alignment on one consistent conclusion through a variety of months of
00:31gauging this race, looking at polls, looking at fundraising data, looking at fundamentals,
00:37and one thing they all come to A. The FiveThirtyEight Forecast is now the most studied forecast
00:42on this channel.
00:43They revealed their predicting model early in the 2024 election season, and we've been
00:48watching it since.
00:50Unfortunately, we don't have the opportunity to look back on those Joe Biden vs Donald
00:54Trump matchup numbers, but they did come into alignment at different points in time,
00:58but FiveThirtyEight's forecast was the most consistent and adamant that Joe Biden had
01:02a better chance of victory than some people may have thought.
01:05However, that is not our primary emphasis here.
01:09What we're looking at right now is an alignment that is coming to a conclusion of very similar
01:13chances and odds across routine battleground states, based on similar numbers and data
01:17points, but different ways of modeling and forecasting an election that come to the same
01:22conclusion, which could reveal a lot about the current state of the race.
01:26So I'm going to go through these projections one by one and look at the national headlines.
01:31What do they say in the head-to-head forecast?
01:33We'll get into some of the statewide statistics, some of the more critical nitty-gritty information,
01:38but right now what I'm interested in is the Harris vs Trump figure, as to who believes
01:42they'll win and by how much.
01:44Now let's start with The Economist.
01:47You just watched FiveThirtyEight, but we will go back to it shortly.
01:51The Economist gives Kamala Harris around a 60% probability of winning the president,
01:56which is consistent with what we've seen so far, but let's see how that compares
02:00to other predicting models.
02:01Donald Trump has a 2 in 5 probability, or 40% nationally.
02:06The race to the White House projection is essentially identical, with a 61% likelihood
02:11for Kamala Harris and a 39% chance for Donald Trump.
02:15On FiveThirtyEight, 60 to 40, which is extremely comparable to the two most recent ones we
02:20looked at, Race to the White House and The Economist.
02:23Then, looking to JHK Forecast, 57% to 43%, rounded up to 60, which is about in line with
02:31past forecasting models.
02:33Then comes Nate Silver, who still gives Kamala Harris a 54% probability of winning the Electoral
02:38College, while Donald Trump gets 46%.
02:42So, as I previously stated, the models here are rather consistent.
02:46They show Kamala Harris having the upper hand against former President Trump, and while
02:51there's a high end on one end, as seen on Race to the White House, of 61%, and a low
02:56end of 54%, it all revolves around the premise, and the same conclusion, that Kamala Harris
03:02will be the next President of the United States.
03:04But, while national headlines and stats are always crucial to consider, I am particularly
03:10interested in where each forecasting model believes the route to victory for each of
03:13these candidates lies.
03:15Unfortunately, Nate Silver's approach requires payment to access several of their statewide
03:20models.
03:21It's an unpleasant fact, but it's just what you have to do when you're no longer
03:25affiliated with 538 or a big news organization, right?
03:30It makes logical, right?
03:32Nate Silver is not doing this for free, so it seems logical that he's putting up a
03:36paywall.
03:37Having said that, I don't have the odds to look at some of these competitive states.
03:42But what I do recall is that Kamala Harris's best performing states are Michigan, Pennsylvania,
03:47and Wisconsin.
03:48And if she wins the Electoral College, the trail does not lead through Georgia, Arizona,
03:54or North Carolina.
03:55So, I believe Kamala Harris is in a particularly good position on the Nate Silver projection.
04:01But I also believe it's worthwhile to look at the four other forecasts here that are
04:05nearly as credible, if not more so, as the Nate Silver forecast, and that can help us
04:10delve deeper into understanding some of these battleground states and how they might vote.
04:14So, as we have done in the past, The Economist will start with all of the swing states.
04:19In Michigan, Kamala Harris is expected to win by two points and has a 60% probability
04:25of winning.
04:26Michigan has really been running fairly in line with the national average for Kamala
04:30Harris.
04:31As you proceed, we will be able to pass through several additional battlefield states.
04:36We travel to a state like Nevada.
04:38Kamala Harris has a about 60% probability of winning there.
04:43Wisconsin has a 60% probability of winning there.
04:46In Pennsylvania, the chances of winning are only 51%.
04:51It is extremely, very narrow and compared to where it was previously, which was not
04:56even in 2020.
04:57Donald Trump has a 60% probability of winning in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
05:03So the odds and expectations for Donald Trump have been relatively high in places like his
05:08North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
05:11And while there has been a narrowing, as you can see below since September 12th, what was
05:16a 64% possibility for Donald Trump shortly after the debate has lately risen back to
05:2156%.
05:22It's a tight race in Arizona, but Donald Trump has lost momentum.
05:27However, Kamala Harris has made some changes.
05:30In terms of chances of winning, Kamala Harris shifted from being in the negatives before
05:35the debate to being in the positives.
05:37According to The Economist estimate, Wisconsin is a similar tale, with Kamala Harris performing
05:42better than she did before the debate.
05:45Nevada has a similar story.
05:47She was really losing right up to the debate, but then her expectations skyrocketed.
05:52In Michigan, Hillary was at a low position prior to the debate, but is currently at her
05:57highest point of the campaign season.
05:59And so I believe this is significant because it demonstrates that Kamala Harris' road
06:03to success is very similar to Nate Silver's model, in that it relies on Nevada, Michigan,
06:09Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
06:11And Donald Trump is the favorite in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
06:16And I believe this is significant because the average amount of electoral votes that
06:20Kamala Harris is anticipated to win is 277, which is nearly in line with what those battleground
06:26states would give Kamala Harris.
06:28I mean, this isn't a random number.
06:31This is actually the average since that is what the aggregate tells us based on the probability
06:36in each battleground state.
06:38So 277 is basically equivalent to what we can expect to see on an election map if The
06:42Economist is true.
06:44So, as I previously said with Nate Silver, the same result occurs here.
06:49This 54% likelihood of winning anticipates Kamala Harris receiving around 279 electoral
06:55votes, which is almost equal to the 276 electoral votes she would receive if she won all of
07:01the battleground states.
07:03And so, where are we?
07:05The Economist and Nate Silver are broadly in agreement on that as well.
07:08And the contest for the White House does not look much different.
07:12Kamala Harris has a 71% probability of winning Michigan, 66% in Pennsylvania, 65% in Wisconsin,
07:20and 65% in Nevada.
07:22But when it comes to other states, such as North Carolina, Donald Trump has the advantage.
07:28And while the margins here are clearly extremely close, right?
07:32Arizona has dropped to 0.06%, or less than one-tenth of a percentage point.
07:38You're talking about less than 5,000 votes out of more than 2 million cast in that state.
07:43Arizona is now a toss-up, with Donald Trump ahead.
07:47In Georgia, the margin is projected to be as small as it was in 2020.
07:51But Donald Trump has the advantage.
07:54North Carolina is predicted to be tighter than Georgia, but Donald Trump still has the
07:58lead.
07:59And thus, this electoral map looks fairly similar, with the exception of Kamala Harris's
08:03projected electoral vote total is somewhat higher, 289.5 electoral votes, which would
08:09give her a state like Arizona or Georgia that would lift her up there.
08:13However, based on where she is the favorite to win throughout the country, her states
08:18would give her 276 electoral votes in this election, which currently indicates a contest
08:23for the White House.
08:25The Economist and Nate Silver agree on this projection as well.
08:28JHK Forecast is another renowned website that delves into several of these contested states.
08:34And as you might think, the tale is quite similar.
08:37Wisconsin's Kamala Harris has a 56% probability of winning, while Michigan has 64, Pennsylvania
08:44has 58, and Nevada has 56.
08:47However, Trump has a lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
08:52Final map, Kamala Harris has a 57% probability of winning, with an average number of electoral
08:58votes ranging from 285 to 253.
09:02And if you just toss these numbers together, you'll get 276.
09:07Kamala Harris wins the Electoral College, but the results are generally consistent with
09:11what everyone else is reporting.
09:13And then we can look at the one we've been studying for the longest period on this channel,
09:17the 538 projection, which gives Kamala Harris with a 60% probability of beating the former
09:24president.
09:25And how do we perceive this win likelihood in the battleground states?
09:28You guessed it, Pennsylvania, 58% likelihood for Kamala Harris, Michigan, 64% possibility
09:35for Kamala Harris, Wisconsin, 61% chance for Kamala Harris, and Nevada, 57% chance for
09:42Kamala Harris.
09:43But when it comes to North Carolina, they're equal.
09:46In Georgia, they are even.
09:48And in Arizona, they are even.
09:51Trump has a tiny lead in Georgia and Arizona.
09:54Finally, the route to victory for Kamala Harris lies in the same exact states as it does in
09:59every other projection, namely Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, bringing
10:05us to an average prognosis of Kamala Harris obtaining 276 electoral votes.
10:10The average here, however, is because they think that in a 50-50 probability, she will
10:15win Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona, which would propel her up the rankings.
10:21The same goes for many of the other models.
10:24At the end of the day, things are consistent here, and the road to win for Kamala Harris
10:28right now is through those exact battleground states that I stated before.
10:32And, while we didn't say we'd speak about political betting markets a lot, and we won't,
10:38they do tell a tale that is worth hearing, even if only briefly, and it is a forecast
10:42map that has shifted significantly over the last month and a half.
10:46Kamala Harris' chances of becoming the next president of the United States increased from
10:5129% to around 37% when she was originally named as the Democratic contender.
10:57Donald Trump still had the upper hand, and we saw that when she actually received the
11:02nomination and around the time of the convention, she was only at 47%, which is lower than today.
11:09And the trend lines weren't particularly impressive.
11:11She was rising, then diminishing, and now, she has achieved her highest peak in the last
11:17month, and a point that is likely to grow based on some of the datasets we've seen
11:21from battleground states that have produced strong results for Kamala Harris.
11:25But in terms of electoral forecasting, I believe you will find this intriguing as well.
11:30The state of Nevada actually displays Kamala Harris with a two-point edge, which is little
11:35less than what some other states indicate.
11:37However, Arizona gives Donald Trump a 61% chance, Georgia a 58% probability, and North
11:44Carolina a 56% chance.
11:47Polly Market now leans slightly to the right.
11:50They greatly overestimate Republican candidates' prospects of winning battleground Senate,
11:55House, and gubernatorial contests.
11:57I mean, even at different periods in time back in mid-July, they had Mark Robinson,
12:03whose name you may recall from the problems that have plagued his candidacy in recent
12:07days.
12:08However, in July, he had a 40% probability of winning and a 45% chance of winning.
12:14His chances of winning today are fewer than 10%.
12:17And honestly, anyone could have told you that.
12:20We knew that many of these things would become more popular and well-known across the state,
12:24but many people didn't listen because many people who invest in these sites, again, try
12:29to set aside their own personal biases, but Polly Market, I've noticed, leans slightly
12:34to the right when it comes to this and is actively tracked by many right-wing actors.
12:39Which makes sense, given that some sites, such as Predicted, are significantly more
12:43reasonable and, as a result, slightly more accurate than many of the other sites listed
12:48here.
12:49And I'm not here to bash Polly Market, but I will say that when it comes to instances
12:53that don't seem to make sense as improvements, I do notice them.
12:57On debate night, for example, Donald Trump's odds increased, which is exactly what the
13:02right-wing had promised.
13:04Oh, he went up.
13:05He went up.
13:07Every survey and data point indicated that he went down, down, down.
13:11And Polly Market is now returning to reality, but even in this circumstance, which is slightly
13:16more favorable to Republicans, guess what we're finding?
13:20It appears that Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin.
13:23Nevada has previously announced that Kamala Harris was ahead.
13:27Kamala Harris leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
13:30What does that look like on a political map if she loses every other state?
13:34You got it.
13:35Say it with me, 276 electoral votes for the White House.
13:39Donald Trump would not be re-elected, and this would be a point in Kamala Harris'
13:44campaign's favor.
13:45Even so, a victory is a triumph.
13:48So, despite the models taking in identical data, I believe we can conclude that they
13:53all try to assess and comprehend elections extremely differently, and in many cases,
13:58accurately.
13:59A lot of projections, and many of these forecasts, seldom ever coincide to the point where they
14:04are virtually spot on in terms of which states Kamala Harris is expected to win and how she
14:09will win.
14:10In reality, we are witnessing a very obvious synchronization of these forecasting models.
14:15I mean, it's something I can't get away from because I don't believe any of the
14:20legitimate polls or large prediction businesses disagree with us at this time, and the consensus
14:25map is forming.
14:27The consensus map indicates that Kamala Harris will win the White House through the Rust
14:31Belt area and Nevada.
14:32The agreement is growing that across all of these diverse sites, individuals from all
14:37backgrounds, experiences, models, donors, and so on, all of them arrive to the same
14:43result.
14:44One possible outcome is that Kamala Harris is elected president.
14:48The second conclusion is that Clinton wins the president by a unique electoral road that
14:52relies on the blue wall, which remains blue.
14:55Then the state of Nevada reverting to its electoral history and path of being a relatively
14:59strong democratic state.
15:02Republicans haven't won the presidential election since 2004.
15:05Not even Donald Trump had enough enthusiasm and shock factor in 2016 to shift the state
15:10of Nevada.
15:11He didn't shift much from Barack Obama, and between 2016 and 2020 remained roughly
15:16even with the Democratic Party, which likely contributes to the models forecasting across
15:21them that say Kamala Harris has the advantage in Nevada.
15:24Finally, I believe that this map is the most plausible one today.
15:28I believe North Carolina is a little more tricky than we realize, especially with Mark
15:33Robinson involved.
15:35But eventually, these forecasting algorithms come to a fairly similar result for a number
15:39of reasons, and I believe they're correct.
15:42Despite Kamala Harris's tiny lead, this contest remains a toss-up.
15:47But if the election were conducted today, I'd declare her the victor, and I believe
15:51she'd win these three states, Nevada and North Carolina, albeit by a razor-thin margin.
15:58Right now, Kamala Harris is in a position to grow on areas that Biden won in 2020 while
16:03perhaps losing some of those states.
16:05However, she still retains a razor-thin lead, making her the winner of this year's presidential
16:11election.
16:12So, thank you very much for viewing this video.
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16:27On the screen, there's a video to view, followed by a collection of my 2024 presidential election
16:33analysis films.
16:34Again, thank you for watching, and I'll see you all tomorrow.