Menteri Komunikasi dan Informatika Budi Arie Setiadi mengakui perkembangan teknologi berbasis digital memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap berbagai macam aspek kehidupan. Dia menambahkan, ketergantungan Indonesia terhadap platform digital dan ekosistem teknologi dari luar negeri semakin besar.
Laju transformasi digital yang semakin cepat ini mengubah perilaku maupun aktivitas masyarakat, mulai dari transaksi ekonomi dan perbankan, mengintegrasikan ekonomi serta keuangan digital melalui pemanfaatan data, hingga berbagai kemudahan akses lainnya. Budi menuturkan, akselerasi transformasi inilah yang tengah didorong oleh Pemerintah Indonesia demi mencapai kedaulatan digital .
Lebih lanjut Budi mengatakan, langkah-langkah untuk menegakkan kedaulatan digital ini diwujudkan melalui berbagai kebijakan, termasuk kehadiran data center, penguatan sumber daya manusia (SDM), dan penerapan regulasi, seperti Permenkominfo Nomor 5 Tahun 2020 tentang Penyelenggara Sistem Elektronik Lingkup Privat serta Rancangan Peraturan Pemerintah (RPP) tentang Perlindungan Data Pribadi (PDP).
Laju transformasi digital yang semakin cepat ini mengubah perilaku maupun aktivitas masyarakat, mulai dari transaksi ekonomi dan perbankan, mengintegrasikan ekonomi serta keuangan digital melalui pemanfaatan data, hingga berbagai kemudahan akses lainnya. Budi menuturkan, akselerasi transformasi inilah yang tengah didorong oleh Pemerintah Indonesia demi mencapai kedaulatan digital .
Lebih lanjut Budi mengatakan, langkah-langkah untuk menegakkan kedaulatan digital ini diwujudkan melalui berbagai kebijakan, termasuk kehadiran data center, penguatan sumber daya manusia (SDM), dan penerapan regulasi, seperti Permenkominfo Nomor 5 Tahun 2020 tentang Penyelenggara Sistem Elektronik Lingkup Privat serta Rancangan Peraturan Pemerintah (RPP) tentang Perlindungan Data Pribadi (PDP).
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Middle Class
00:05The impact of the decrease in the middle class
00:13Yes, Mr. Mirza, the decrease in the middle class has had an impact on how the decline in the middle class,
00:20then the purchasing power of our community, and of course it also has an impact on the retail sector in Indonesia.
00:26Meanwhile, so far, the middle class has always been a pillar in the movement of the national economy through their consumption activities.
00:37The Center for Statistics records that the number of middle class in Indonesia tends to decline in the last few years,
00:43where in 2021 the number of middle class reached 53.83 million people.
00:49However, this figure fell to 49.51 million in 2022.
00:55Then it fell again to 48.27 million in 2023 and to 47.85 million in 2024.
01:04Meanwhile, so far, the middle class has always been a pillar in the movement of the national economy through their consumption activities.
01:11However, the criteria of the middle class group is to have a revenue of 3.5 to 17 times the poverty line,
01:17or around Rp 2,040,262 to Rp 9,909,844 per capita per month.
01:26However, in the midst of economic pressures from both global and domestic, like now,
01:31this group is actually a decline in the middle class,
01:34this is evidenced by a decline in the export revenue that tends to approach the group below it, namely towards the middle class.
01:39In fact, the potential can go even deeper, namely the poor government group.
01:44Meanwhile, the Indonesian Shopping Center Managers Association, as quoted by the media,
01:49the decline in the purchasing power of the middle class makes shopping patterns change,
01:53which leads to the tendency to buy things at a cheaper price.
01:57This pattern is also concerned to be one of the triggers for the illegal import of goods at a very cheap price.
02:03Because they don't pay various payments and taxes as they should.
02:07From Jakarta, Tini Putan, AIDX Jeno.
02:19To discuss our topic this time, the retail industry is stressed by the decline of the middle class in Indonesia.
02:24We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Alfonso Suwijaya,
02:27Chairperson of the Indonesian Shopping Center Managers Association, APPBI.
02:31Good morning, Mr. Alfonso Suwijaya.
02:33Good morning, Mr. Nas. How are you?
02:35I'm fine, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
02:39I'm also joined by Mrs. Esther Sriastuti, Executive Director of Indev.
02:42Good morning, Mrs. Esther.
02:47Yes, hello?
02:49I think you're still on mute.
02:53Okay.
02:55Let's go straight to Mr. Alfonso Suwijaya, Chairperson of the Indonesian Shopping Center Managers Association.
02:59This is related to the update, Mr. Alfonso.
03:01What is the condition of the shopping center right now?
03:05Please.
03:06Yes, thank you, Mr. Nas.
03:08If we talk about the middle class, the middle class people,
03:13the consumer, of course this is related to the consumer for the shopping center.
03:18Maybe I will give the data to the shopping center data,
03:22the composition of the shopping center in Indonesia.
03:25So, the upper class is actually only about 5%.
03:30So, the total of all shopping centers in Indonesia,
03:34the middle class is about 30-35%.
03:39The lower class is about 60%.
03:43So, actually, the shopping center in Indonesia is dominated by the lower middle class, 95%.
03:51Because the upper class is only 5%.
03:53So, if something happens in the middle or lower middle class,
03:59it will have a significant impact on the shopping center industry in Indonesia.
04:06Because the number is dominated by 90% of the lower middle class.
04:12So, that's the situation in the shopping center industry in Indonesia.
04:19If we talk about the business condition in 2024,
04:25so actually when we organized the business plan,
04:29at the end of 2023, we organized the business plan in 2024.
04:34Actually, we were quite optimistic in 2024.
04:39Because after we managed to get through the difficult times of COVID,
04:44actually in mid-2022, there was a recovery.
04:49In 2023, the recovery was quite good.
04:52If we talk about the indicator in the shopping center,
04:55one is the level of visitors.
04:57The level of visitors in 2023 is already more than 100% compared to before COVID.
05:05Then the next indicator is the level of occupancy of the shopping center.
05:11In 2023, the national average was almost 80%.
05:16It was quite exciting at that time.
05:18Because during COVID, it was only about 70%.
05:22So, before COVID, it was about 90%.
05:26So, there was a 10% increase.
05:28So, at that time, we were optimistic that in 2024,
05:31it could reach 90% again.
05:35But it turned out that the condition was,
05:39one of them is the purchasing power,
05:41which was actually felt at the beginning of the year.
05:45But in Q1 and Q2, or in the first semester of 2024,
05:51there were a lot of help.
05:53There was help from IMLEC,
05:55then there was help from the PILPRES,
05:58the general election.
06:01Then there was Ramadhan and Eid al-Fitr.
06:04So, the purchasing power that decreased actually happened,
06:08but it wasn't felt because there were a lot of moments
06:11that were quite good for the shopping center industry.
06:15However, we still revised the target
06:19from the occupancy rate of 90%.
06:22So, we revised it only about 80% to 85%
06:27in 2024.
06:29So, one of the reasons is the decreasing
06:33middle class purchasing power.
06:35As for the occupancy rate,
06:37we didn't revise it,
06:39because the occupancy rate was still good.
06:41But the shopping pattern changed.
06:46So, it came to the shopping center,
06:48but the spending was reduced.
06:55So, the occupancy rate was not relative,
06:58but it had an impact.
06:59Interesting, Mr. Alphonso.
07:00So, that's what happened, Mr. Pras.
07:02Yes, let's go straight to the in-depth.
07:05Mr. Esther, as you can see, the data has been presented.
07:08Since the COVID-19 pandemic,
07:10the economic growth was quite high,
07:12it was smooth, it was quite positive.
07:15In fact, in 2024,
07:18there was a little delay.
07:20In other words, the purchasing power was reduced
07:22from Mr. Alphonso,
07:24so the occupancy rate also decreased.
07:26The occupancy rate has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic.
07:29So, what is the in-depth?
07:31Looking at the helicopter view,
07:33what is the real condition right now?
07:35Please.
07:36Yes, thank you, Mr. Pras and Mr. Alphonso.
07:41Good morning, everyone.
07:43So, if I look at what Mr. Alphonso said,
07:50that the purchasing power was reduced.
07:52Yes, that's right.
07:53So, if we look at the data from 2024,
07:58from May to August,
08:03we experienced a four-month deflation.
08:08So, this is a signal that the economic crisis will occur.
08:15Because based on empirical data,
08:18historical data,
08:20it shows that when there is a two-month or even four-month deflation,
08:26there is a crisis.
08:29So, we have to be concerned
08:34that in 2024,
08:37with a four-month deflation,
08:40this is a crisis signal.
08:42So, in the in-depth discussion,
08:46I have proposed that the monetary policy
08:52and fiscal policy can no longer be tight.
08:56But from the monetary point of view,
09:01it must be based on the flow rate
09:04and the instruments of the monetary policy must also be relatively loose.
09:11From the fiscal point of view,
09:13it is also tight
09:17because there will be an increase in tax rates in 2025.
09:21And there will be some increase in interest rates.
09:25For example, there will be an increase in pension funds.
09:30There will be an increase in interest rates and so on.
09:32It should be increased again now.
09:37Because now the purchasing power has weakened.
09:41That's all.
09:42Bu Esther, but if you look at the decline in purchasing power
09:45or the deflation that occurred in the last few months,
09:47is it because of the price,
09:49the need for trees or others did not experience an increase?
09:52Or is it because of the people's purchasing power
09:55that there was a change in the pattern of consumerism,
09:59as Mr. Alphonso said?
10:01Yes.
10:02So, if you look at it,
10:04why is the purchasing power weak?
10:06Because, first of all,
10:08there is an increase in interest rates
10:10that is not balanced with an increase in price.
10:15And inflation is faster than an increase in interest rates.
10:20What is the result?
10:22The real income is decreasing.
10:27If the real income is decreasing,
10:29it is indicated by a decrease in consumption,
10:31both from the need for trees
10:34and from the sale of motor vehicles.
10:40So, this is a signal
10:43that we are experiencing a decrease in purchasing power.
10:52Okay.
10:53Mr. Alphonso, it has been said
10:55that with the data that has been conveyed economically,
10:58the fiscal and monetary policy is expected to be more relaxed.
11:02How long has it been felt
11:05since the APBPI saw a decrease in the purchasing power of the people,
11:09while you said that the occupancy or the number of visitors,
11:12the number of those who come to shopping centers,
11:14did not experience a significant decrease, Mr. Alphonso?
11:18Yes, I think, as I explained at the beginning,
11:21it has been felt since the beginning of 2024.
11:25But it was helped by the momentum of the new year,
11:30then IMLEC, then APL Press,
11:32Pemilu, then Ramadan and Idulfitri.
11:36Because Ramadan and Idulfitri are one of the peak
11:38retail sales industries in Indonesia.
11:41It was helped.
11:43But it has actually been felt.
11:44That's why if we compare the performance of Ramadan and Idulfitri in 2024,
11:52it has increased compared to last year,
11:54but it's not too significant.
11:56It's just a single digit.
11:58So, I think that's the result of the purchasing power.
12:03After Ramadan and Idulfitri, it's even more felt.
12:06Because in Indonesia, the shopping trend is
12:10after Idulfitri, it will definitely enter the low season.
12:13Later, slowly it will start to rise again,
12:16preceding the school holidays.
12:18Then it will rise again,
12:20quite significant again, preceding Christmas and New Year.
12:23That's the trend.
12:25Especially for this year, the trend is deeper.
12:28Because of the purchasing power.
12:30If we look at the shopping centers,
12:33I have said that the level of visitors is quite good.
12:38Even relatively better than the previous years.
12:42But the shopping pattern trend has changed.
12:45So, if we look at it now,
12:47there are many shops that are also aggressive,
12:50expansive,
12:52opening many shops.
12:55But those are the shops that sell products
12:58at a low or cheap price.
13:03The small price.
13:05So, that's what's happening now.
13:07So, they are expansive.
13:09They still open new shops every month
13:11in almost all parts of Indonesia.
13:13But the products are sold at a low price.
13:18As I said earlier,
13:19Esther has said that the income reel
13:21is a small amount of money.
13:23So, now they tend to choose products
13:26at a low unit price,
13:28so that they can get a lot.
13:30So, if you go to a shop that sells at a high unit price,
13:33they can't afford it anymore.
13:35That's why I once said that
13:37one of the reasons why illegal imports are getting more and more popular
13:42is because the middle class,
13:45especially the middle and lower class,
13:47are forced to buy those products
13:53because the value is cheap.
13:55As a result, they don't pay taxes,
13:57they don't pay income tax, and so on.
13:59This has a direct impact on the manufacturing industry in Indonesia.
14:03Recently, we heard that
14:05they were all shouting.
14:07The Indonesian manufacturing industry
14:10as a result, I think,
14:11one of the reasons is the accumulation of illegal goods.
14:16So, everything is correlated.
14:18Even in the field,
14:20the correlation can be seen.
14:23From the analysis of the observers,
14:26it also happened in the field,
14:28as I said earlier.
14:31So, this is what happened.
14:33But again,
14:34there are shops that are indeed expensive.
14:37But that's it.
14:38They only sell things at a cheap price.
14:41Then one more thing is
14:44children's toys,
14:47children's toys,
14:49entertainment,
14:50because besides the government,
14:52at the beginning of the year,
14:53they lowered the taxes.
14:54The regional tax
14:56became the domain of the regional government.
15:01But before that,
15:02each regional government
15:04raised taxes by 25%,
15:0635%.
15:08Then the government,
15:10with the Labor Law,
15:12only limited it by 10%.
15:14This is a step that should be appreciated by the government,
15:18so that it finally increased business transactions.
15:21It stimulated business transactions,
15:24especially in the entertainment industry
15:26and children's toys,
15:28including parking taxes, etc.
15:30In addition,
15:32with the money,
15:34for example, only IDR 35,000-50,000,
15:37children can play for 2-3 hours.
15:40So, this is what is finally
15:42encouraged by the lower-middle class communities.
15:46With a little money,
15:48they can enjoy playing for hours.
15:52This is how it looks.
15:54So, all these trends are read,
15:56and I think it all proves
15:58the correlation between purchasing power
16:00and social spending patterns.
16:02That's it.
16:03Interesting analysis, Mr. Alphonso.
16:05On the one hand,
16:06there is a decrease in purchasing power,
16:08but the community seems to be trying
16:10to find a way
16:12to consume,
16:14even with the limited funds,
16:16to buy at a cheap price.
16:18On the other hand,
16:19it can stimulate the brand again,
16:21the circulation and sales of imported products,
16:23whether the category is illegal or not.
16:26We will discuss in the next segment.
16:28Mr. Esther and Mr. Alphonso,
16:30we will take a break.
16:31And Mr. Mirza, make sure you are still with us.
16:50Thank you for staying with us on Market TV.
16:52We will continue our discussion with PBI
16:54and Indef.
16:56Mr. Esther,
16:57some real data,
16:59quite comprehensive observations
17:01have been delivered by Mr. Alphonso
17:03about the shift
17:05from the community consumption pattern
17:07where they usually shop,
17:09come to shopping centers,
17:11now they are looking for the cheapest price,
17:14then there is a business sector,
17:17like a soup shop,
17:19in a mall or a shopping center
17:21that was robbed
17:23due to the benefit of local taxes,
17:26such as children's toys.
17:28What can Indef see
17:29related to this phenomenon?
17:34The point is,
17:35the community is still consuming,
17:37but there is an adjustment.
17:41This adjustment is related to
17:43how much money they have in their pockets.
17:47So,
17:48this is to ensure
17:51that they are still happy.
17:55What must be underlined
17:57is that we have to look at
18:00some government policies.
18:04So,
18:05the government policy
18:07should not be tight,
18:10but it should be more relaxed
18:13so that they can breathe.
18:15Otherwise,
18:16the number of middle-class people will decrease.
18:18If the number of middle-class people decreases,
18:20it will be dangerous.
18:24How dangerous
18:26is the yellow light
18:28if the decline of middle-class people
18:30has an impact on the national economy?
18:34What do you think?
18:39Hello?
18:40Yes, Mas.
18:41How do you see the current situation
18:43when the decline of middle-class people
18:45has an impact on the national economy
18:48and the economy of Indonesia?
18:50What do you think?
18:54In my opinion,
18:55if the number of middle-class people decreases,
18:58it will mean that
19:00some communities
19:02will become poor.
19:04If the number of poor people decreases,
19:06it will be dangerous
19:08for the economy of Indonesia.
19:10That's all, Mas.
19:11Okay.
19:12Mr. Fonsus,
19:13what is the strategy
19:14that has been prepared
19:15if there is a shift
19:17in the consumption pattern of the people?
19:18Even though they still come
19:20to shopping centers,
19:22but in terms of volume,
19:24the value of consumption
19:25that they usually spend will decrease.
19:28Yes.
19:29I think
19:30this solution
19:32cannot be done
19:34by the entrepreneurs
19:36because it is related to the purchasing power.
19:38The people's purchasing power.
19:40So, I think
19:41the government has to
19:43intervene.
19:44Because I think the entrepreneurs
19:46will be very difficult
19:48or maybe unable to
19:50overcome the purchasing power problem
19:53if it is done by the entrepreneurs.
19:56But, as entrepreneurs,
19:59we can't just stand still
20:01when facing this situation.
20:03So, what can be done right now
20:05is, first,
20:07the retailers make
20:09products in a smaller package.
20:13With a smaller price target.
20:18The unit price will be lower.
20:20I think that's it.
20:21So, they are looking for strategies
20:24on how to sell their products
20:26in a much smaller package
20:28so that the price can be affordable.
20:30Then, in terms of shopping centers,
20:33they do a lot of promotional activities.
20:36One of them is
20:38the discount.
20:40For example, Jakarta Gridsale,
20:43Indonesia Shopping Gridsale,
20:45and so on.
20:46The purpose is to give
20:48discounts
20:50so that they can help the people,
20:52especially the middle class,
20:54whose purchasing power is decreasing,
20:56can be affordable.
20:58Because of the various discounts.
21:01So, I think that's what can be done.
21:04But, we can't just give discounts.
21:07It will be a problem
21:09if we keep giving discounts.
21:11So, I think, in the end,
21:13the government should be able
21:15to solve this problem quickly.
21:18I think, indeed,
21:20the current situation is not only
21:22due to domestic factors.
21:24I think the global factors
21:26also have a great impact.
21:28But, we know for sure that
21:31Indonesia's economy
21:33is supported by a very large majority
21:36of domestic trade,
21:38the consumption of the people.
21:40So, I think this is what we have to do
21:42how we release the dependence
21:44from the global
21:46by continuing to push domestic trade.
21:48I think we still remember
21:50during the pandemic,
21:53Indonesia's economic growth
21:55is relatively much better
21:57than neighboring countries.
21:59Why?
22:01Because of domestic trade.
22:03I think that's what we have to push
22:05how we continue to push
22:07domestic trade
22:09so that it doesn't depend too much
22:11on the global,
22:13so that the economic growth
22:15overall is still maintained.
22:17And I think it has been proven
22:19during the pandemic.
22:22So, I think
22:24another condition is,
22:26as Mrs. Esther has said,
22:28the government is expected
22:30not to make regulations,
22:32policies,
22:34which have the potential to reduce
22:36the purchasing power of the people.
22:38Such as TAPERA,
22:40PPN,
22:42and now there is another issue,
22:46the management of apartment environment,
22:49taxes,
22:51I think all of these
22:53will burden
22:55the lower middle class.
22:57So, I think that's what we have to avoid.
22:59Isn't that right, Mr. Pras?
23:01So, what is the strategy
23:03that the government needs to do?
23:05Remember, this is also in the transition period.
23:07It means that the next government
23:09has a lot of tasks
23:11that need to be done immediately.
23:13We know that the BPS has already announced
23:15the number of middle class people in Indonesia
23:17in the last few years.
23:19In the last year, in 2024,
23:21there were 47.85 million people.
23:23Before that, there were 48.27 million people.
23:25What do you think?
23:27For example, from the monetary point of view,
23:29Indonesia has already reduced the rate of inflation.
23:31But from the fiscal point of view,
23:33what do we need to create?
23:35I remember there were some new taxes
23:37that Mr. Alphonso mentioned.
23:39It seems that
23:41for now, the government
23:43has to be reliable
23:45and not increase the tax rate.
23:47Because,
23:49if we look at the best practice,
23:51it also shows that
23:53in Malaysia, for example,
23:55when the PPN tax rate
23:57is increased,
23:59the government revenue
24:01will also increase.
24:03It means that the country's investment
24:05will increase.
24:07But the volume of sales
24:09for the products
24:11in Malaysia
24:13will decrease.
24:15When the PPN tax rate
24:17is reduced,
24:19then
24:21the government revenue
24:23will not decrease.
24:25But
24:27the volume of sales
24:29will increase.
24:31And this will actually
24:33increase the government revenue.
24:35This has also been
24:37proven in the theory
24:39of public economy.
24:41It can be read in the transcript.
24:43So, it's a level curve.
24:45So, economic growth
24:47does not happen
24:49with the increase
24:51of the tax rate.
24:55The right thing to do
24:57is for the economy to grow first,
24:59then the country's revenue
25:01from the tax rate
25:03will increase,
25:05not the other way around.
25:07Okay, that's it.
25:09What are the policies
25:11that will be implemented
25:13by the next government?
25:15Is the focus to increase
25:17Indonesia's economic activity
25:19with various relaxation or not?
25:21We will just have to wait.
25:23But there are some PRs that must be implemented
25:25so that the middle class
25:27do not fall into the class.
25:29Because the term of saving
25:31has become a familiar thing
25:33in Western society.
25:35Unfortunately, time is limited.
25:37Mr. Fonsus, thank you for the update.
25:39I hope there will be a solution
25:41from the policies
25:43provided by the next government.
25:45Good luck with your activities.
25:47Stay healthy, Mr. Fonsus.
25:49Thank you, Mr. Esther.
26:07Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:09Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:11Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:13Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:15Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:17Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:19Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:21Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:23Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:25Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:27Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:29Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:31Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:33Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:35Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:37Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:39Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:41Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:43Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:45Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:47Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:49Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:51Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:53Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:55Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:57Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
26:59Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.
27:01Stay healthy, Mr. Esther.