Gold Outlook: सोने-चांदी की कीमतें रिकॉर्ड पर, October में क्या रहेगा भाव| GoodReturns

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Gold market news : अक्टूबर के महीने में गोल्ड का भाव क्या रह सकता है? फेस्टिव सीजन में गोल्ड खरीददारी के लिए आपको अभी सोना खरीदना चाहिए या इंतजार करना चाहिए? अगले 5 साल में सोने का क्या आउटलुक है? सोने में निवेश करना अभी कितना सुरक्षित? समझिए Manoj Kumar Jain, Director-Prithvi Finmart से

What is gold and silver trends till Diwali and year end. Gold price predictions 2024 for October month. Is it still safe to invest in Gold. Gold 22 karat, 24 karat prices in India.

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#silverprice #silverrate #Silver #GoldPrediction #24kgold #22kGold #GoldRateNews #GoldPriceNews #GoldRateToday #GoldPriceToday #SilverRateToday #SilverPriceToday #BreakingNews #GoldvsSilver #SilverInvestment #SilverRate #SilverPrediction #SilverOutlook #SilverForecast
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Transcript

00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you're watching Gutter Trends.

00:02We are seeing how gold and silver are trading at their all-time highs.

00:08And now the festive season is also coming and the wedding season is also about to start.

00:12So, what will be the outlook of gold and silver for the festive season, wedding season and till the end of this year?

00:20What will be the outlook and what will be the growth?

00:23Let's try to understand.

00:24To talk to us about all these sentiments, Mr. Manoj Kumar Jain has joined us, who is the director of Prithvi Pharma.

00:31Hello, sir. How are you? Welcome to the show.

00:33Namaskar, Bhavna ji. Thank you for being in the show.

00:37Sir, gold is at its all-time highs. We have seen gold going above $2,660 per ounce.

00:44We have also seen a 5% increase in silver.

00:48So, Manoj ji, how are you seeing these moves that we have seen in gold and silver?

00:53Bhavna ji, we have been discussing gold and silver on your shows for a long time.

00:59And we have always told investors that gold and silver are in a structural bull run.

01:05And we are seeing that the higher highs of gold and silver have been made in the international market.

01:12If we talk about gold this year, it has given more than 40% returns in the international market, which is a record.

01:19If we look at the Indian markets, we have seen more than 30% returns.

01:24We have seen a big duty cut in the union budget.

01:29Despite that, we have seen gold reach record highs in the Indian markets.

01:35And this week, we saw the prices reach 76,000 for the first time.

01:39And if we talk about silver, we have seen it reach 94,000 again.

01:46And in the international market as well, we have seen that the prices have reached the 12-year high.

01:51So, there are 2-3 major reasons for the increase in gold and silver prices.

01:56First, we have seen that post-COVID, the buying of global central banks has been made in gold.

02:01And the main reason for that is that after COVID, the global central banks are continuously reducing their dollar reserves.

02:09And there, the buying of gold has been seen to increase continuously.

02:13Second, we have seen that geopolitical tensions have been heightened.

02:17After Russia and Ukraine, we have seen that the tension in the Middle East has been increasing continuously.

02:22And the third major reason is that the global central banks, which were continuously increasing their interest rates,

02:30we have seen that the interest rates have started to decline.

02:34And in this month, the US Fed has cut the rate of 50 basis points.

02:39So, all these fundamental factors have been seen to be positive for gold and silver prices.

02:45And because of that, we have seen that the prices are seen to be in the lifetime highs in the international market.

02:52And the prices of silver have also reached the 12-year high.

02:56Manoj, the way we have seen the movements, is there any calculation as to how far the prices can go?

03:02And the month of September, as you have mentioned, has been seen to be in the all-time highs.

03:08So, what are the expectations of buying at these levels?

03:12And what do you think about the bull run of gold?

03:14Will it continue further this year, if we talk about this financial year in particular?

03:20The momentum, Bhawana ji, I believe that it will continue for the next 2-3 years,

03:24the bull run that we are seeing in gold and silver.

03:27So, the long-term investors have been continuously being called in the dips to keep investing in the form of SIP.

03:35The momentum that has started is going to continue for a long time.

03:39Because the way the world is moving towards de-dollarization,

03:43and we are also seeing that the cycle that has started in the interest rates is also going to continue for 1-1.5 years.

03:52So, we believe that this momentum will continue for the next 2-3 years of gold and silver.

03:57So, the long-term investors should keep investing in the form of SIP.

04:00And the short-term investors, we have seen a good run-up in the gold and silver prices.

04:07So, if we talk about the gold, there are a few dips.

04:10So, the ranges of Rs. 74,000-73,500 will be better for fresh buying.

04:17If we talk about silver, the levels around Rs. 90,000 will be better for fresh buying.

04:26So, the short-term investors should wait for the dips.

04:29The long-term investors should invest in the form of SIP.

04:32Sir, because the festive season will start in October,

04:37and the wedding season is also starting very soon.

04:39So, the decline in demand in recent days, because there was no such opportunity.

04:43So, the decline that was seen in demand will be seen to increase again.

04:48But if we compare it with the last Diwali quarter,

04:52because this time the difference is that gold is trading at all-time highs.

04:58So, do you think that there will be a dent in the buying?

05:03If we don't talk value-wise, then do you think that there will be a dip this time?

05:11Normally, the behavior of the consumer is that when there is a huge increase in the price,

05:16then they take a step back.

05:20But we have seen that when the Indian government cut the duty in the union budget,

05:25then we saw a very good demand for gold and silver.

05:29And many consumers who are going to get married here,

05:33or who want to buy in the festive season,

05:36they have bought very aggressively in the last two months.

05:39So, it is possible that after a big increase,

05:42the sentiment of the consumer may look a little hurt,

05:46and there may be a decrease in demand here.

05:49But the kind of bull run that is going on here,

05:52So, definitely, if we talk about it now,

05:54then in this marriage season, there will be about 25 to 30 lakh marriages in India.

05:59So, definitely, we can say that the sentiment can be weak.

06:06But the kind of wedding season that is going to start here,

06:11so definitely the demand will be better.

06:14And somewhere or the other, the buying will be visible here.

06:18So, in the short term, the sentiment can be a little weak.

06:21But in the long term, we believe that there will be no big decline in demand.

06:27Another big thing is that we are seeing the interest rate of investors increasing

06:33in the ETF, the Exchange Traded Fund.

06:37And in the last two months, there has been a record buying of investors in the ETF in India.

06:42Another big thing is that we, the investors of Sovereign Gold Bond,

06:46we are seeing that from the side of the Indian government,

06:49maybe the new, we can say that the subscription,

06:53Sovereign Gold Bond, which is not visible,

06:56so that too, the investment here, somewhere or the other,

06:59will be visible either in physical gold or in the ETF.

07:02So, we believe that in the short term, the demand can be a little weak.

07:05But in the long term, there will be no weakness in demand.

07:09There is no weakness in demand here.

07:13Sir, when it comes to gold,

07:14a friend of ours has been seeing for some time that instead of 24 carat, 22 carat,

07:20the interest of investors is somewhere around 20 carat, 13 carat, 14 carat.

07:28Especially if we talk about jewelry,

07:31another new trend has emerged that even 9 carat,

07:34the Gen Z's are preferring a lot.

07:36So, since gold is now at an all-time high,

07:39do you think that this trend can continue?

07:45Absolutely.

07:45Here, value-wise, those who want to buy,

07:51if we don't go in terms of quantity,

07:54and if we go in terms of value,

07:56then they have to purchase jewelry of a certain amount.

08:01So, when your rate increases,

08:03then the lower caratage is seen to be consumer-shifting.

08:09Earlier, we used to see jewelry of 23 carat,

08:12which later became 22 carat,

08:14and at 18 carat, it was gradually seen to be consumer-shifting.

08:18But we are seeing that in India too,

08:19the 14 carat and other lower caratage jewelry,

08:23there, as you said,

08:26the Gen Z's have been seen to be affected.

08:29So, definitely, in the international market too,

08:32the lower caratage jewelry is in high demand.

08:36So, we will see that trend in India too in the coming time.

08:40So, definitely, the lower caratage jewelry market

08:43will be seen to be growing in the coming time.

08:48Also, if we look at silver jewelry,

08:51that too is being picked up in an unprecedented way.

08:56And the demand for silver ornaments has also been seen to be increasing in India.

09:00So, there too, we can see a better trend in the coming time.

09:04So, this trend that people are choosing to buy less carat jewelry

09:09because the prices are also fluctuating.

09:12People also have a mindset that

09:14if we have to spend so many lakhs of rupees,

09:17then according to that, we will reduce the carat.

09:21You said the right thing.

09:22Sir, the way we are seeing that gold is moving ahead,

09:25it is also achieving its target soon.

09:28But do you think that if geopolitical tensions ease out a little,

09:32then we can see a little correction in the price of gold?

09:37And even if there is a correction, what levels can there be?

09:41See, when we see that in the bull market of long-term,

09:45correction is healthy for the market.

09:48Whether it comes for any reason,

09:50whether it comes due to the strength of the dollar index,

09:53or geopolitical tensions are seen to be easing,

09:55whether it comes because of that.

09:57So, this is a healthy sign of the bull market.

10:00And we believe that we have seen a good increase in prices here.

10:04So, definitely, there is a correction due here

10:07and it can come for whatever is the reason.

10:10So, if corrections come here,

10:11then we believe that if we talk about gold,

10:14then the December promise in the international market

10:17is also trading around $26-$80.

10:20There it is $25-$50.

10:22Meaning, if a correction comes,

10:24then the correction of $100-$125 can be seen in gold.

10:29So, as we said,

10:31$73,000-$53,000 can be made in the Indian markets.

10:36So, that will be a better level in terms of investment.

10:39If we talk about silver,

10:41then the market is trading around $32.

10:44There it is $30.40 in the international market.

10:47And $90,000-$89,000 can come in the Indian markets

10:51due to the correction.

10:54But that will be a healthy sign

10:56and there will be better opportunities for investors for a fresh entry.

11:01So, if corrections come,

11:02then investors should see it as a better opportunity for investment.

11:07Although, if we look at it this way,

11:08we don't see a lot of corrections coming.

11:11What do you think,

11:12if we talk about the next quarter 1,

11:15can gold achieve the level of $2750 per ounce?

11:20Absolutely, we believe that

11:22we can see $2750-$2800 in the international market by the end of this year.

11:27And if we talk about December 2025,

11:30then we can see $3,000 in the international market.

11:34If we talk about the Indian markets,

11:36then by the end of 2024,

11:38we will see prices going up to $77,000.

11:42And if we talk about the end of 2025,

11:46then we can see prices going up to $80,000-$82,000.

11:50So, there is a good chance of growth in the long term.

11:53And if there are any corrections,

11:56then it should be seen as an opportunity for investment.

11:58If you see any correction for any reason,

12:02then it can be a buying opportunity for you.

12:05Sir, if we talk about silver,

12:06then what will be your outlook on silver these days?

12:09Can we expect a bullish run on silver in comparison to gold?

12:15Absolutely, we believe that in the coming time,

12:18silver will outperform gold.

12:21The main reason behind this is that

12:23silver being an industrial metal,

12:25its brightness has increased here.

12:27And the way we can see that

12:29the stimulus that China has started,

12:31this week in RRR,

12:33we have seen a rate cut of 50 basis points.

12:35Also, we can see that

12:37the gradual stimulus that China is giving

12:39is to stabilize the economy.

12:41So, as the Chinese economy stabilizes,

12:43we will see an increase in industrial demand.

12:45So, we believe that

12:47in the next 1 to 1.5 years,

12:49silver will outperform gold.

12:51So, in that condition,

12:53if we talk about prices,

12:55then till the end of this year,

12:57till the end of 2024,

12:59we can see prices going up to 1 lakh.

13:01If we talk about dollar terms,

13:03then in the international market,

13:05we can see 34.5 dollars

13:07till the end of this year.

13:09If we talk about the end of 2025,

13:11then we can see prices

13:13going up to 40 dollars

13:15in the international market.

13:17And in the Indian market,

13:19there is a possibility of

13:21prices going up to 1.25 lakhs.

13:23This can be seen by looking at the trend.

13:25So, silver will outperform gold

13:27in the next 1 to 1.5 years.

13:29So, silver can outperform gold.

13:31But, sir, if we look at the Indian market,

13:33and specifically,

13:35I would like to know your opinion,

13:37then between gold and silver,

13:39which one would you pick?

13:41You have already told us the targets.

13:43Which one would you like to pick?

13:45If someone wants to make a portfolio

13:47for the next 1 to 1.5 years,

13:49then the ratio here is

13:5160% of silver and 40% of gold.

13:53Because the outperformance

13:55can be more in silver

13:57in the next 1 to 1.5 years.

13:59So, in your portfolio,

14:0160% of gold and 40% of silver.

14:05And overall,

14:07in your portfolio,

14:09the allocation of precious metals

14:11should be at least 15%

14:13at this time.

14:15If you invest in real estate,

14:17bonds, FDR, mutual funds,

14:19or in the share market,

14:21then in that case,

14:23diversifying your portfolio,

14:25at least 15% of the investment

14:27should be in precious metals.

14:29Absolutely.

14:31If we talk about the portfolio of gold and silver,

14:33then you can keep a ratio of 60-40,

14:35in which 60% should be silver.

14:37And if we talk about your overall portfolio,

14:39then you have to give 15%

14:41to both these metals.

14:43Sir, you have given targets

14:45for 2024 as well.

14:47You have also talked about the end of 2025.

14:49But if we talk specifically,

14:51because people are paying a lot of attention

14:53to the festive and wedding season.

14:55So, at this time,

14:57what is the best time

14:59if someone wants to buy

15:01for this season,

15:03for gold and silver?

15:05Absolutely.

15:07We have already told you that

15:09this is a structural bull run

15:11and it will continue for a long time.

15:13And we have seen a good run up

15:15in this month.

15:17So, there is a possibility of a correction.

15:19Looking at that,

15:21if there is a fall of Rs. 1,000 to Rs. 1,500 in gold,

15:23then you should definitely buy here.

15:25If there is a fall of Rs. 2,000 to Rs. 2,500

15:27in silver,

15:29then you should definitely buy.

15:31There is a chance of better returns

15:33in the long term.

15:35Looking at the long term,

15:37the volatility of 2-3% in gold and silver

15:39is not a big deal.

15:41So, there is nothing to worry about.

15:43Those who want to invest in the long term,

15:45should invest in SIP.

15:47Those who want to invest in the short term,

15:49should wait for 1-2 weeks.

15:51Then you can invest there.

15:53Absolutely.

15:55Sir, for the end of 2024,

15:57the target you have given for gold

15:59is around Rs. 77,000.

16:01If we talk about October,

16:03what are the targets you want to give

16:05for gold and silver?

16:07In October, we believe that

16:09gold can have an upper range of Rs. 76,000

16:11being a festive season.

16:13There is a good run-up here.

16:15There can be a consolidation

16:17in October month

16:19between Rs. 73,000 to Rs. 76,000.

16:21If we talk about silver,

16:23the upper range here

16:25can be of Rs. 97,000 in October month.

16:27There can be a consolidation

16:29in the range of Rs. 90,000 to Rs. 97,000.

16:31There can be a consolidation

16:33in the range of Rs. 97,000

16:35and Rs. 76,000 gold.

16:37So, you have given

16:39the target of Rs. 97,000

16:41for October

16:43for silver.

16:45So, it can be a good opportunity for you

16:47if you see a correction

16:49of Rs. 1,000 to Rs. 1,500.

16:51It can be a buying opportunity for you.

16:53Sir, thank you so much

16:55for this interview.

16:59Sir, thank you so much

17:01for talking to us.

17:03We also try to

17:05talk about gold and silver

17:07at the end of the month

17:09so that we can discuss

17:11what has happened in the past month

17:13and what are the targets for next month.

17:15We also discuss when and what corrections

17:17can come.

17:19Sir, thank you so much

17:21for connecting with us.

17:25So, you also have to take care of these targets.

17:27If gold comes in the market

17:29for any reason,

17:31it can be a good buying opportunity for you.

17:33You have to take care of all these things.

17:35You can invest in gold through SIP.

17:37As it has been discussed on SGB,

17:39the next subscription of SGB

17:41is very unlikely to come.

17:43So, you can invest through SIP.

17:45Apart from this, you can also

17:47increase your buying in ETF.

17:49If we talk about the portfolio,

17:51as it has been discussed,

17:53you have to dedicate 15%

17:55to gold and 50% to metals.

17:57Apart from this,

17:59if we look at the gold and silver ratio,

18:01then 60% should be in silver

18:03and 40% should be

18:05dedicated to gold.

18:07So, that's all in this video.

18:09I hope you liked this information.

18:11Because it is useful for you.

18:13Wedding season is starting.

18:15Festival season is starting.

18:17Diwali is starting.

18:19So, in the next video,

18:21when Dussehra season will be there,

18:23Navratri season will be there,

18:25Diwali season will be there,

18:27we will again connect with Manoj ji.

18:29After that, we will discuss

18:31what you should do now.

18:33That's all in the video.

18:35If you are watching on Facebook,

18:37then like the Facebook page.

18:39If you are watching on YouTube,

18:41then don't forget to subscribe

18:43to Good Returns YouTube channel.

Gold Outlook: सोने-चांदी की कीमतें रिकॉर्ड पर, October में क्या रहेगा भाव| GoodReturns

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