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00:00Let's get to our second ranked versus ranked game of this Saturday.
00:07It's number nine, Penn State hosting number 19, Illinois in Happy Valley.
00:12Although a top 20 tilt have a 17 and a half point spread in favor of Penn State.
00:19You see the total it's at 48 and a half up by a full point from where the number was
00:24earlier this week.
00:26Is it too many points for a game with a total sub 50 and a matchup between two top 20 Big
00:32Ten programs?
00:33So funny enough, I'm on Illinois in the game, but I don't have an issue with the number.
00:38I don't think that Illinois is being disrespected on this spread at all.
00:43This is an Illinois team that went to Nebraska, got you about double digits.
00:47Is Penn State double digits better than Nebraska?
00:50We're doing some spread math.
00:51Again, probably.
00:53I still have some hesitations on the Nittany Lions.
00:55So on three game sample size, they have with a pair of Mac teams and then the West Virginia
01:01route.
01:02But I think we're seeing that the Mountaineers are somewhere in between last year's preseason
01:07expectations and this year's preseason expectations.
01:11I just James Franklin does not play a lot of ranked teams in the Big Ten this year.
01:17That might change.
01:18He usually just plays Michigan and Ohio State, loses to Michigan, Ohio State, handles business
01:24against everyone else.
01:27Last year they also played a ranked Iowa team, 31-0, that final score.
01:30I know they covered.
01:31It was an odd game.
01:32That was also the worst version of that Iowa offense.
01:36I think Altmaier has enough juice here, Joe, to stay inside.
01:39You're thinking about Deacon Hill.
01:40I can see it on your face.
01:41Me too.
01:42I miss the kid.
01:43I miss the kid.
01:44You talk tough.
01:45You want to get involved.
01:46Look up a couple numbers.
01:47All right, guys.
01:48Guard's a little light today.
01:49We might be added.
01:51I think Altmaier has shown enough that they can backdoor a big number like this.
01:56No beef with the number, but I did play the Illini.
01:57No, I like it as well.
01:59I was thinking of last year because we watched that game.
02:01That was the noted game against Ohio State.
02:04That was a 13 and a half point number.
02:06Penn State won.
02:07It was a wet track, but that offense was terrible for Iowa.
02:10Don't get me started.
02:12But I'm with Kevin in regards to Altmaier.
02:14We talk about the completion percentage, especially last week against Nebraska, 77%, over 200
02:21yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions is thrown, 10 touchdowns on the year, no turnovers.
02:26And more importantly for me, I talked about it with you as well.
02:29That's secondary for Illinois.
02:31Very opportunistic.
02:32They played good teams already, Dillon, Rayola, and Nebraska.
02:36They played Kansas.
02:37So they have two quality games under their belt.
02:40They four seven interceptions already on the season.
02:43That travels well.
02:44And I just think they're playing with house money.
02:47They lost this game in Champaign by 17 points last year.
02:50I think a lot of people are saying, ah, why is Penn State favored?
02:54They're deserving.
02:55They're a dominant home team.
02:56But they didn't look dominant against Bowling Green, I'll tell you that.
02:59They got abused in regards to that.
03:01I think Illinois is going to be in this game from start to finish.
03:04One of my better picks.
03:05I like the points.
03:06That game against Bowling Green is nearly a five touchdown favorite.
03:09One of just five times since the start of 2022 that James Franklin's crew has not covered
03:15when it's expected to win.
03:17They've been underdogs to Michigan and Ohio State.
03:19But as a favorite since the start of the 2022 campaign, nobody in college football better
03:25than the Nittany Lions covering a number, 19-5-1 against the spread.
03:30Few better than Burt.
03:32That's Brett Bielema and the Illini covering numbers as an underdog, 14-8 against the spread
03:38since Bielema took the reins in Champaign in 2021.
03:42Nine outright victories tied for the fourth most at the FBS level of outright underdog
03:48wins for a program in the country in that span.
03:52And Illinois, Joe, one of two programs this year with multiple ranked wins.
03:57It's the Illini and the Volunteers of Tennessee.
04:00I do want to flip it back to you, though, because let's talk offense.
04:03We understand Penn State's defense, despite the struggles against Connor Baselak and the
04:07Falcons of Bowling Green, is still going to be one of the best in the Big Ten, perhaps
04:11one of the best nationally as well.
04:13Where they needed to take strides was at the quarterback position and offensively.
04:18And so far, we have seen that out of Drew Aller, a completion percentage on the rise
04:22and the second-best passer rating in college football so far this year.
04:26If Penn State is going to win comfortably in state college today, what does Drew Aller
04:30and the Nittany Lions' offense do against the Illini?
04:33Well, I think they need to run the football, establish the line of scrimmage as well with
04:36Singleton and Allen, and have Aller work off of play action.
04:39And that offense is clicking and humming on all cylinders.
04:42They're running the football consistently and staying in short third downs.
04:46I do not believe that if they put the ball into Aller's hands and say, hey, kid, throw
04:51it 45 times in regards to this matchup, that's a recipe to cover and win this game.
04:57I think they'll be at a huge disadvantage.
04:59I'm still not sold on Drew Aller, Ben, in a big spot.
05:02I know he dominated West Virginia.
05:04But again, this team in Illinois, their expectation was four and a half, five wins this year.
05:10They're already four and 0.
05:11They're undefeated.
05:12And again, there's certain teams we just talked about that play certain programs very tough,
05:17especially in Happy Valley.
05:19We know about the nine overtimes.
05:21But typically, it's when Illinois is under 500, right?
05:24They have an opportunity to really go undefeated and make some noise.