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00:00This is Apropos, will they set to meet for their first and possibly only vice-presidential showdown?
00:08Two-term Democratic Governor Tim Walz and Republican Senator J.D. Vance are squaring off in a TV debate to be hosted by CBS News.
00:17It's also the last scheduled debate of the 2024 campaign, potentially offering both sides a final chance to influence the millions of voters expected to tune in.
00:27Let's take a closer look at the two candidates running for vice-president.
00:33Senator J.D. Vance.
00:39J.D. Vance was once a sworn critic of Donald Trump, he's now his running mate.
00:44The former U.S. president and Republican presidential nominee made the announcement on his own social media network,
00:51posting that the Ohio senator was the person best suited to assume the position of vice-president.
00:57Vance served in the U.S. Marines and deployed to Iraq for a six-month assignment in 2005.
01:03He shot to fame back in 2016 when he published a memoir called Hillbilly Elegy,
01:09a portrayal of his ordeal growing up in Middletown, in Rust Belt, Ohio.
01:13It made him a household name and he never missed an opportunity to criticise Trump.
01:18He once suggested Trump could be America's Hitler and even published an opinion piece in the New York Times, arguing he was unfit for office.
01:27But he later transformed himself into a solid ally when it became clear his past criticism of Trump was preventing his election as Republican senator for Ohio.
01:38And I promise to all of my friends who are going to be at the state house, to all of my friends who are going to be at the state capitol,
01:45we need better leadership in Washington D.C. and that's exactly what I promise, to fight for every single day.
01:51Elected in 2022, since then he's backed populist economic policies and emerged as a big sceptic on aid to Ukraine.
01:59Democrats, including U.S. President Joe Biden, say J.D. Vance will bend over backwards to enable a Trump agenda.
02:07He's a clone of Trump on the issues. A clone of Trump on the issues. So I don't see any difference.
02:15Analysts say the pick is a nod to Rust Belt voters from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania,
02:21key battleground states where the 2024 election may well be decided.
02:27Highest ranking official in Minnesota, but his persona is that of a jovial dad,
02:33as seen in this video with his daughter explaining the state's new hands-free driving law.
02:37No, no, no, I think it's actually mostly bald men.
02:41Cut. We will go do some of those things and report back.
02:45Or in this video that went viral of father and daughter at the state fair.
02:49Oh my God!
02:53It's his manner as a plain spoken 60 year old football coach from the Midwest
02:59that appealed to Kamala Harris when she was looking for a running mate.
03:03Would you be my running mate? And let's get this thing on the road.
03:07I would be honored, Madam Vice President.
03:10His attacks on Donald Trump and other Republicans as just plain weird caught fire on social media.
03:16You know it. You feel it. These guys are creepy.
03:19And yes, just weird as hell. That's what you see. That's what you see.
03:23Walls was a high school teacher before winning a seat in Congress in 2006.
03:27He was elected as Minnesota's governor in 2018 and reelected in 2022.
03:33He's known as an advocate for veterans and LGBTQ rights,
03:37credited with enacting tax credits for families with children
03:41and providing free school meals for all children in his state.
03:46Walls has faced criticism for moving too slowly to deploy the National Guard
03:50in response to riots after the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer in 2020
03:56and also questions about his departure from the National Guard
04:00three months before his unit was deployed to Iraq.
04:03The Harris campaign has responded to that last criticism by calling Walls
04:07a tireless advocate for our men and women in uniform.
04:11For more, we're joined now by political scientist Thomas Gift,
04:14director of the Center on US Politics at UCL.
04:17Thank you so much for being with us on the program this evening, Thomas.
04:20So with Donald Trump ruling out another debate against Kamala Harris,
04:24observers are saying with the presidential race as tight as it is,
04:27this showdown is shaping up to be more significant
04:30than these kind of VP debates normally would be. What's your take?
04:34Well, I think you're absolutely right. I mean, typically,
04:37we don't think of vice presidential debates as making a huge difference.
04:41They tend to be lower spotlight than the presidential debate.
04:45Americans largely vote for the top of the ticket.
04:48Also, it's the case that the people who watch these debates are the most politically active
04:52and the most politically active tend to already have an opinion on who they're going to vote for.
04:57But precisely because of the reason that you stated, this race is so close,
05:01one to two percentage point bonkers,
05:04could give one of the tickets momentum and could really make a difference heading into November.
05:09And they obviously have very different political views, very different styles as well.
05:13So who do you think is going to perform best and on which issues?
05:18Well, I think both candidates have really been hunkering down over the last week and a half
05:22prepping for this debate because they know that it is really a spotlight.
05:26I think both of them are going to come out swinging.
05:29You know, I don't think either Tim Walz or J.D. Biden are going to come out swinging.
05:32I don't think either Tim Walz or J.D. Banz is afraid of being combative and showing their tough side.
05:40And so I do think that there's going to be quite a bit of back and forth.
05:43We've already seen J.D. Banz and Tim Walz kind of trade criticisms in large part over the respective military service.
05:51So it's hard to say who is going to come out on top yet.
05:54I think both of them are very qualified.
05:57They're very good in kind of this impromptu setting.
06:00I do think that it's going to be a fraught discussion.
06:03Opinion polls suggest that Walz is perhaps better liked than Banz.
06:06Does that give him an advantage heading into the debate?
06:09I think that's absolutely the case.
06:11If you look at opinion polls, Tim Walz does have a slightly higher opinion.
06:16But, you know, I think voters who are tuning in, at least swing voters, are open to making their choice,
06:22you know, depending on who they see.
06:24And so even if, you know, Tim Walz has come off as more likable to this point,
06:28I think this is an opportunity for J.D. Banz to reassure some voters about any concerns that they have.
06:34And you mentioned swing voters there.
06:36What kind of an impact could this have on swing voters?
06:39Are people really likely to be influenced by the running mates rather than the candidates themselves?
06:46I think it's really the case that most Americans vote for the top of the ticket.
06:50I think on the margins, these vice presidential candidates can matter,
06:54but it's really at the top of the ticket.
06:56Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Donald Trump in particular,
06:59are such known quantities that I actually don't think that there are very many swing voters left.
07:05But, of course, this is largely going to be about base mobilization,
07:08ensuring that Democrats get out, Republicans get out.
07:12And so I actually don't think that this is as much about kind of persuasion as it is just mobilizing the base
07:18and ensuring they turn out to the polls.
07:20And do you think that it will help to ensure that people turn out to the polls?
07:24As you say, could the debate help swing political momentum in any particular direction, do you think,
07:29when opinion polls suggest that it is still so tight?
07:32Well, I think a lot of this is momentum because if we go back a few weeks ago,
07:36Donald Trump really looked like he had the momentum.
07:39Now, recently, Kamala Harris looks like she has the momentum.
07:42I can tell you in swing states, I'm actually in Pennsylvania right now visiting my family.
07:47Pennsylvania is going to be one of the big states that kind of determines this election.
07:52You can't turn on the news right now without seeing an advertisement for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
07:58You can't sort of open your mail without getting a flyer.
08:01So both candidates are kind of expending enormous amounts of money.
08:06Probably a lot of it is canceling out just to get that one to two percent that they think that could make a difference.
08:11And so, yeah, as we said, it's typically not the case that these vice presidential debates have a huge impact.
08:17But because we're in such a close race, I do think we have to pay attention to it.
08:21And J.D. Vance, he's focused strongly on the economy, on immigration.
08:25Any time we've seen him appearing alongside Donald Trump particularly,
08:28is he likely to go on the attack on these issues, do you think?
08:32I think absolutely. I mean, he really thinks that Kamala Harris and by extension, Tim Walz have a couple of vulnerabilities.
08:38One is on immigration and the other is on the economy.
08:41Of course, there's mixed news about how the economy is faring.
08:45And a lot of Americans kind of disagree fundamentally on the general trajectory of the economic paths of the United States.
08:52But I think he's going to emphasize sort of cost of living, the fact that Americans go to the grocery store
08:57and they're paying prices that are 25, 30 percent higher pre-pandemic.
09:02That's absolutely going to be a key talking point for him.
09:05Thomas, thank you so much for your time on the program.
09:07We'll have to leave it there for now.
09:08That is political scientist Thomas Gift, director of the Center on U.S. Politics at UCL.
09:14Well, that is it from us for now.