Israel-Hezbollah-Iran update in light of Iran's missile strike on October 1 2024
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00:00Now, let's cross live to former senior staffer at the U.S. Congress, Fadi Ismail.
00:08Fadi, it's great to have you.
00:10Join me now.
00:11Now, Iranian media – thank you – Iranian media reports claim that missile attack hit
00:16Israeli F-35 fighter jets, tanks, and military bases.
00:21However, Israel denies that.
00:23But how likely is it that the Iron Dome defense system was strong enough to intercept everything?
00:30Well, first of all, I have to say, honestly, I don't know if there were some F-13s, F-35s
00:40that have been hit.
00:42Many of these 400 missiles that were launched at Israel from Iran were indeed directed at
00:49military targets, such as the Nevatim Air Force Base in southern Israel.
00:58And it is conceivable that there were F-35s there.
01:03So whether – first of all, about the report itself, I can't say anything for sure.
01:08The Iron Dome is a part – is one part of an entire system, like three different systems
01:14for different missiles of different ranges that Israel uses to intercept the incoming
01:22missiles.
01:24Nobody has ever said that these three different systems can intercept everything.
01:30But by and large, they have been pretty successful.
01:34They have been pretty successful, especially – excuse me – especially the Iron Dome,
01:41which gained so much notoriety in the last few weeks.
01:46So it is almost – sorry – almost built into military planning of the Israelis that
01:53some missiles will get through it.
01:56It's a part of the risk assessment, and it's just the way of things.
02:01However, on the other side, also remember that the actual jets themselves are pretty
02:08safe.
02:09They're pretty secure.
02:10So it's not that easy to strike them on the ground.
02:14And by the way, only about an hour ago – I'm right now in Galilee – I actually watched
02:20the – in real time, the Iranian missiles flying towards south.
02:26And also, I've seen the Israeli systems intercepting many of them up there in the
02:31sky.
02:32I'm sure that your reporters have broadcast some of that.
02:36So to answer your question, the Iron Dome and the rest of the missile defense system
02:43were never intended until – to be 100% effective – until we see the entrance or the adaptation
02:53of the laser-based systems that are being worked on right now.
02:57And they will have a very close 100% success rate.
03:01But that's still into the future.
03:03I don't think we'll see them in this war.
03:05OK.
03:06Now, how likely is it that Israel will strike back following the Iranian attack?
03:11Because Iran has issued a stern warning that any Israeli retaliation will provoke even
03:16fiercer consequences.
03:18What should we anticipate in the days ahead?
03:20Well, the speak between Israeli thinkers, military thinkers – don't really put it
03:28out there – but if you listen to them on a personal level, and there is like a talk
03:33that says that Netanyahu was goading Iran to do something like this so that you will
03:40have the legitimacy to strike back inside Iran, mainly the nuclear facilities.
03:49So if that's the case, then yeah, we will see an Israeli response.
03:58But again, we are now guessing.
04:00Inside Israel, in the Hebrew language, when they speak, when the Israeli officials speak,
04:05they promise response.
04:08I'm not sure that they can back off of that, but what does the response mean?
04:11Don't forget, we have a very large bank, there's a very large bank of possible targets,
04:19Iranian targets, that extends all the way from its borders with Afghanistan all the
04:25way to the Mediterranean.
04:26There's so many Iranian targets there.
04:29Just north of Israel, in the area of Syria, there's almost 100,000 militias, 100,000
04:37troops who belong to militias, proxy militias that take orders from Tehran.
04:43That could be a target.
04:44There are many, there's constant movement by Iranian officials and Iranian forces in
04:50certain parts between Iraq and Syria.
04:54That's another possible target.
04:55And so on and so forth, Iranian vessels, there are many things that Israel can strike that
05:03might be still within the rules of the game, as a military target versus a military.
05:09I think Israel now feels, in general, that it has a legitimacy to do that, now that Iran,
05:15for the second time in less than one year, launches a missile strike from its own territory
05:21towards Israel.
05:22I want to remind everybody that there was no declared Israeli attack on Iran from Israeli
05:27territory that period of time.
05:29Of course, we can talk about Ismail Hameed here and other things that happened in the
05:33past before the war, Fatah al-Zadeh, and other situations where people claimed it was Israeli
05:39special forces, especially, or maybe other entities, but we don't really know.
05:44It wasn't a declaration of war in an official diplomatic sense.
05:49So if you ask me what the Israelis are going to do, I think they will respond.
05:54I think they will strike Iranian targets.
05:58I'm not sure it's going to be on Iranian soil, necessarily, but it could be.
06:04All right.
06:06Now Israel has, recently Israel has been striking Syria and Yemen, aside from Gaza and Lebanon.
06:13Do you expect other regional states to join Iran?
06:19In fighting Israel?
06:20Yes, exactly.
06:21Against Israel.
06:22Well, that's exactly, well, that's basically the extent of the Iranian axis in the region.
06:31The Iraqis are not going to join them, I think, as a country, as a state, not at the present
06:36time.
06:37I don't think there's any appetite for wars inside the Iraqi Republic right now, but there
06:44are many who volunteer from a variety of nations, and we see them showing up in Syria, showing
06:52up in, some people say in Lebanon, but definitely in Syria, and they basically collect people
06:56from many nationalities.
06:58But as an established state declaring war against Israel at this point in time, none
07:05of them seem to be interested in that.
07:08Technically, neither did Yemen, because it's a question if the Houthis in Yemen are actually
07:14the legitimate government.
07:16So technically speaking, I can't tell.
07:18And Syria, who is a very close ally of Iran, hasn't really entered the fight yet in any
07:24meaningful sense.
07:26So I'm trying to think, people sometimes have all these scenarios in their heads that this
07:33country and the other and the other might do something.
07:37I have to say that the way the Israeli military has been behaving the last few months, the
07:43unrelenting operations, unrelenting strikes, the complete lack of attention to what the
07:52international community, the criticism that we hear from the international community,
07:58give other entities in the region, whether they're state or non-state actors, a pause.
08:04Because this is not the Israel that we are used to.
08:06This is not the Israel that is trying to appear in a certain image before the West.
08:11This is not the Israel that is all shook up about a single soldier killed in battle.
08:19And it is not the Israel who is going to exchange one soldier, one captured soldier, for a thousand
08:25Hamas people like we saw in the Shalit deal.
08:29We have a different Israeli public since October 7th, and the world needs to understand this.
08:36We're speaking about a whole different Israeli country, a whole different public, a whole
08:39different nation, something basic change in the Israeli psyche.
08:44This is a kind of way of thinking that I read about in books that apparently existed in
08:50the 40s and the 50s and the 60s, a willingness to, from the Israeli side, from Israel's point
08:57of view, a willingness to sacrifice and fight for a very long period of time.
09:03I remember one of the assumptions in international relations and in strategic studies was that
09:08Israel can't fight long wars.
09:10Israel has been at war for what, now, almost a year, and still going strong.
09:15And the public is behind it, and the economy is working.
09:18This is really shatters many of the assumptions that the countries in the region have been
09:23operating under, and I think that gives them a pause.
09:27So to answer your question, I don't think any country will willingly and so quickly
09:32join Iran.
09:33Even Iran is not very happy to join the war with Israel, in spite of the so many provocations
09:40and so many good reasons and justifications that Netanyahu has been giving them.
09:47Everybody is very calculated right now.
09:49Israel today is a very angry public today.
09:55The memory of October 7th is not leaving people.
09:58I live between them.
09:59I hear them.
10:00I see that.
10:01I see them burning people's souls.
10:02It's a fact.
10:03All right.
10:04You've given us a picture there.
10:05Let's flip the coin now.
10:07The White House, on the other hand, has said that it directed the U.S. military to aid
10:12Israel's defense against Iranian attacks.
10:15How likely is it that Washington would also get directly involved in the conflict in case
10:21that Israel is attacked?
10:23Washington's already been involved by helping intercept attacks on Iran, not only Washington.
10:29And I remind you, there is a regional military structure that has been built over the years
10:36since the days of President Trump when he was in power.
10:40Some people call it the Arab NATO.
10:42And we've seen that structure, with American leadership, responding to missile attacks
10:49from Iran.
10:50And I don't know if people remember, during the month of May, when Iran sent hundreds
10:55of missiles to Israel, even Arab countries participated in the effort to intercept those
11:00missiles.
11:01And that was under the leadership and participation of the United States, probably Britain as
11:05well.
11:06So the United States is already involved, whether it wants or it doesn't want, because
11:10there are American assets, American troops on the ground.
11:14And in the Middle East, people don't always see the difference between Israel and the
11:18U.S.
11:19The U.S. is attacking Israel, so they will avenge it by attacking an American structure.
11:26Maybe yesterday or the day before yesterday, we saw an entire Iraqi mob surrounding the
11:33American embassy in Baghdad because of an Israeli strike in Lebanon.
11:38So the two countries are really connected by the air, tactically speaking and strategically
11:45speaking.
11:46So the Americans have absolutely no other choice but to be ready for what's coming.
11:51As long as the United States is in the region, as long as it has assets in the region, it
11:57will be involved.
11:58Most obviously, the most obvious example is, of course, what's happening in the Red Sea,
12:03which is causing international—which is a big pain in the neck for the entire international
12:09trade community, on top of other problems we have in the world, such as the war in Ukraine
12:15and the tensions in the China Sea.
12:18So it's not whether the United States is going to be involved.
12:22The United States is already involved tactically in this war.
12:28And I have no way—I don't see how it can stop being like that for the next few weeks
12:34and months.
12:35All right.
12:36Now, given the long track record of the United States policy in the Middle East, what have
12:41Washington's interventions or acts of support for Israel left in its wake?
12:48You know, this is a big question.
12:50The United States is not only supporting Israel, but all the other American allies in the region.
12:59Personally, I'm a very big critic of some assumptions of American foreign policy.
13:05You know, I worked in the American government.
13:07I worked close to international relations policymakers.
13:12I have my own critique about this, and this is not the case, maybe.
13:17But the fact is that the United States cannot just turn its back and go away from the Middle
13:22East.
13:23This region has—most important thing is its geography, its location in the world,
13:28its importance to international trade, also the resources that are here, and the fact
13:32that it is a very vibrant region from where many things happen that influence international
13:37security.
13:41So that's a good question.
13:43I actually—I myself ask it in different ways when I meet in conferences and we have
13:48conversations and speeches and so on, panels and during panels.
13:52I think a lot of the American policies in the region were not—I mean, very gentle.
13:57Were not the best ones that could have been.
13:59That's my opinion.
14:00And I'm being very gentle because it's a big subject.
14:05On the other hand, one thing is clear.
14:08There's a change that we saw with President Trump, and I see that now President Biden
14:15is beginning to imitate that.
14:16I don't know what's going to happen with the next administration.
14:19And that is avoiding military engagement with countries in the region as much as possible,
14:26but you can never—which is a very important change.
14:29That's one thing.
14:31The other thing is there are some allies in the region that rely on the United States,
14:34very heavily rely on it, and trust it.
14:37I think it's a good idea for most of them, because otherwise some of those regimes simply
14:42won't exist without American support.
14:44Let's be honest about that.
14:46Is this a stable basis to—like a stable foundation to build relationships in the Middle
14:53East?
14:54Perhaps not.
14:55But the Middle East in general is not a very stable place.
15:00So you asked me almost a philosophical question, and I have a lot to say about it, but I think
15:06it's beyond the scope of honesty, beyond the scope of a media answer.
15:13I think it's more about—we need to hold a conference.
15:15If you hold a conference about this, I will come and talk at it.
15:19All right.
15:20Media reports say that the Israeli gas rig in the Mediterranean was hit by an Iranian
15:25missile.
15:26If this is confirmed, what consequences can it have for Israel's energy system?
15:31With the gas—they're talking about the gas—I don't know, I don't have any data that confirms
15:43that.
15:44Do you have any confirmation that it happened?
15:45Yeah, there's a media report that the Mediterranean gas rig for Israel was hit by Iran, Iranian
15:52missiles.
15:53But if this is confirmed, if this is confirmed so far, creating a hypothetical scenario,
16:00what consequences can it have for Israel's energy system?
16:03Israel would have—well, Israel is ready for that.
16:06I mean, this has been a discussion, and it's inside the Israeli emergency response plans
16:12before that rig was even built and shipped to Israel to be used.
16:18That will not be as—that will be a very bad strike by Iran or by Hezbollah, because
16:24Israel's response will be at the—to be honest with you, will be probably at the Kharij
16:29area in southern Iran, which basically is—will paralyze the Iranian economy for years, because
16:39that's the only place where they can—where they can export their oil from.
16:46So that is not something that either side wants to do to the other.
16:49But Israel does not rely on that rig as much as Iran relies on its own infrastructure in
16:56the Kharij area.
16:57This will be a very bad thing for both sides, and I don't think anybody wants to go into
17:02that kind of war against very critical infrastructure, because there will be no end to it.
17:09Only side has—has those.
17:12And I have no confirmation that that oil rig has been hit, that the gas rig was hit.
17:20And even if it was, it is not as a final blow as people think it might be.
17:27It will be a very high inconvenience, but no more.
17:29All right.
17:30We have to leave you here now, Fadi Ismail, former senior staffer at U.S. Congress.
17:35Thank you so much for your time.
17:36Thank you for having me.
17:37Great.
17:38Thank you, Fadi.