The Big Story | What Are Indians Spending On During Festive Season? | NDTV Profit
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00:00The festive season brings not just good cheer, but also a resounding uptick in demand in
00:04various segments.
00:05In fact, it's that time of the year when retailers bank on the high sales across sectors.
00:11This year is no different and hopes are pinned on consumer demand picking up after a muted
00:16year so far.
00:17But will higher prices lead to a more expensive festive season and will inflation be a drag?
00:23This evening on The Big Store, we look at how Indians are spending and what is it that
00:28tops their list.
00:30Well, we began with a look at consumer durables and optimistic about this year's festive
00:37season sales.
00:38Nilesh Gupta of Vijay Sales and Souvakesh Sen of Senco Gold are both positive about
00:44the rise in demand in the electronics and gold categories.
00:49I think this year the festive season is shaping up very well.
00:52There are two reasons for my being so optimistic.
00:56First is the Shraddh period, which just ended day before yesterday, was not as bad as it
01:02used to be.
01:03And in fact, this we have been seeing consistently year on year.
01:06So it clearly indicates that electronics is no longer a product which people feel it's
01:13something which we should not buy during the Shraddh period.
01:15It's become a necessity.
01:17Secondly, on 2nd October, it was the last Shraddh and being a bank holiday, we saw a
01:22huge surge of consumers who came in the stores to purchase.
01:26And that also indicates that the consumer sentiment is good.
01:30And yesterday being the first Navratri was also a very good day.
01:33So overall, in a nutshell, it seems this year we will have a very good festive season, better
01:38than last year.
01:39And let me also impress upon one point that last year too was good.
01:43So we expect 7 to 10% growth over last year and a 7 to 10% growth over a high base is
01:50an excellent growth, an excellent indicator of consumer positivity in buying.
01:58In the last 15-20 days, the industry saw some amount of, I would say that, you know, people
02:04waiting for the festive season to start, the pittance was there.
02:08But considering that, you know, we have Diwali and the wedding season, I'm assuming that
02:14compared to last year, there will be an increase in terms of value of business for everyone
02:21about 10% to 12% because we have to keep it in mind that the gold prices have moved up
02:26considerably compared to last year as well.
02:29So yes, there could be impact in volume with the increase in prices.
02:33But overall, we are expecting a 10% to 12% increase from last year.
02:38And in fact, NDTV Prof. Tushar Deep Singh also spoke to the BMW Group India President
02:47Vikram Pawar and asked him about the demand outlook during the festive season.
02:54I'm sure I started the year by making the statement.
02:57I still stick by that, that it will be a record year again with a good double-digit growth.
03:01Okay.
03:02So no slowdown effects that is coming to you?
03:05There was, like I said earlier, I think in a few interviews, I've mentioned that there
03:08was a kind of a pause after the elections or during the election period, which normally
03:12happens.
03:13So that's not unusual.
03:14That's expected.
03:15But now with the festive season, we can see the pickup is absolutely happening.
03:18We've had great deliveries during Ganpati as well.
03:21And I think now with the Navratra starting, we can see the pace picking up even faster.
03:27All right.
03:28Now CS Vigneshwar, the President of the Federation of Automobile Dealers Association is joining
03:32in this evening.
03:33Mr. Vigneshwar, good evening.
03:35Thank you very much for joining us.
03:38And happy Navratras to you as well.
03:41Now, car sales have been declining for the past three months, despite heavy discounts
03:46being offered by automakers.
03:49So are you hopeful on an uptick in sales in the festive period?
03:55I just want to restate that there's no decline in car sales, but the pace has been slowing
04:01a little bit, the pace of growth.
04:05That's been happening for the last three, four months.
04:07And see, we are coming in from a quite a protracted election.
04:12And then we had heat waves.
04:14We had floods after that.
04:16So there's a little bit of a dampening of demand from that point of view.
04:20We also last month had a very long short period.
04:23But however, during the short also, we had enough inquiries, walk-ins coming in.
04:28What's really heartening in the last four days when we've been touching base with our
04:32dealer partners and our members throughout India, there's been a four-fold increase
04:37in walk-ins, which is fantastic news.
04:41We're also seeing that the bookings also go up three or four-fold, depending upon the
04:46brand and the regions of India.
04:48The next 45 days, which is going to be the festive season, would be fantastic because
04:53there are great customer offers.
04:55Probably it's one of the best times to buy vehicles because right now the great offers
05:00are on.
05:01It's never been there for the last four or five years where the demand was always very,
05:06very high compared to supply.
05:07Right now the supply is very good.
05:09The customer can walk inside a showroom and probably pick up the color and the suffix
05:16of their choice.
05:17So offers are great.
05:19The new launches are coming in.
05:21Lots of new launches are being planned for the festive season.
05:23And the availability of cars also is nice.
05:25Yes, absolutely.
05:26Yes, absolutely.
05:27Now, you were mentioning that there are great discounts that are going to be offered in
05:31this festive season.
05:32So obviously, you know, a lot of these car makers will be looking at clearing some of
05:38that inventory, as you said, that there has been slower growth, perhaps not a decline
05:44as you want to put it.
05:46But what is it that buyers should be expecting?
05:52The buyers can expect never before offers being given.
05:56But of course, this is a supply-demand issue.
05:58Right now, the supply is quite high.
06:00The inventories are quite high.
06:01So it's a note of caution for the industry.
06:04But for the customers, it's great.
06:06I mean, the great offers are on.
06:07But however, the faster you go and get those vehicles, the better it is for the customer
06:12because these discounts and offers are a factor of supply and demand.
06:16And once the demand goes up and the supply starts coming down, we will also be seeing
06:21discounts also reduced.
06:23But however, there are enough cars, bikes and trucks out there.
06:27So please go ahead and visit your dealer and make your choice.
06:31Right.
06:32And quick word on the two-wheeler segment as well.
06:35And what I wanted to know is that that segment seems to be doing pretty well.
06:43The two-wheeler segment has been coming from two years of quite low demand.
06:49Ever since COVID hit, there has been a very stark dip in demand in the last three, four years.
06:57Especially in the last two years, it was quite difficult.
07:00It is quite heartening and encouraging to see that demand really is going up.
07:05It is probably going back to its highest ever levels, which was around 2019.
07:11And even then, we have a lot of new product offerings.
07:15There are new fuel types which are coming out, alternative fuels to petrol.
07:19You have CNG, which is coming in.
07:21We also have a lot of EV offerings there in the scooter segments.
07:25So another important factor, which also I would like to highlight,
07:30is how rural India is doing in the two-wheeler segment.
07:33It is really doing well.
07:35It is really running the race faster than in the urban centers.
07:41That is where the next opportunity also is.
07:43The two-wheeler companies, OEMs, have seen this.
07:46They are also going to the rural areas to make sure that the rural customers' demands are met.
07:52Absolutely. As you are pointing out, rural India is an indicator of overall growth as well.
07:58So a quick comment there on how cars are doing in rural India
08:03and any particular segment that seems to be doing well.
08:06Overall, the mass segment, again, rural India is probably slightly inching ahead of urban India.
08:14But as you know, India lives in its villages.
08:20The kind of urban population we have is fantastic.
08:23They are yet to be tapped in terms of market potential.
08:27And now customers are increasingly demanding that even their rural areas,
08:35it could be a small town, a village, is also catered to by various segments of manufacturers.
08:41And a lot of four-wheeler, passenger vehicle OEMs are responding to it
08:46by putting small showrooms and workshops in rural centers
08:50so that it satisfies the aspirations of our rural customers.
08:54Right. Mr. Vignesh, we are also seeing a very interesting trend in terms of growth in the luxury segment.
09:01And there are a lot of people who are actually, we just heard a comment there come in,
09:08talking about the fact that there are a lot of people who are actually migrating to their first luxury vehicle.
09:14So how's that looking? And do you expect it to make bumper sales in this period?
09:21We always hope that every segment makes a bumper sales.
09:24And the luxury segment today constitutes a very wide range of vehicles.
09:30There are certain parts of the luxury segment because of the pricing and smaller vehicles,
09:36more economical vehicles that they are also appearing in the mass market, high level mass market segments.
09:44So the luxury offerings are doing quite well.
09:47A lot of it is driven by demand, of course, but also the availability of finance.
09:51So EMIs, longer EMIs also are helping luxury car segments do well.
09:57All right. Now, in the numbers that have come in, we've seen M&M, Toyota and Kia,
10:03you know, have had a marked growth and largely this has been seen in the high demand in the SUV segment.
10:10Can you elaborate on that and tell us a bit more?
10:15Increasingly, India and also the world markets are moving towards SUVs from sedans.
10:21As well, it used to be ruled by sedans, but SUV seems to be the thing which the customers want.
10:27Many advantages, of course, space is one. The feeling of safety again is higher out there.
10:32The road clearances are better. You also have better visual out of the vehicles.
10:41So all these things are making SUVs more and more popular.
10:46And the companies who are quite strong with SUVs are also seeing naturally stronger growth.
10:51So that's where you have the stronger SUV products keep doing well in India.
10:57All right, Mr. Vignesh, thank you very much for taking out the time and talking to us on the big story.
11:02So we are, of course, hoping for a bumper sale period for automobiles during this festive season.
11:11All right. Now, as Navratri marks the start of the festive season,
11:16people across the country are out buying new clothes, sweets and decorations.
11:20And NDTV prophet Yash Tiwari gets you a ground report from the heart of Mumbai.
11:25Bye.
11:36Navratri is all about Goddess Durga and prayers are incomplete without flowers.
11:40The Dada flower market witnessed a brisk sales and vendors say that sales are higher this time than last year.
11:47It's not much, but it's still average.
11:51Since the lockdown, there hasn't been much business.
11:55Almost 50% of the business is fresh flowers.
11:58But thanks to good monsoon, flower supply is in surplus, which has made the prices drop.
12:03But vendors are not too concerned about this.
12:06The market is in the middle, neither up nor down.
12:09Because of the virus, people have started buying in Navratri.
12:14There's a lot of stuff in the market.
12:16If it's Rs. 200-250 a kilo, today it's Rs. 100-200 a kilo.
12:19Dada's flower sellers are not concerned about the threat from growing e-commerce sector,
12:24especially from quick commerce.
12:26They say the e-commerce platforms deal in flowers in a very small quantity,
12:31while Dada's sellers mainly deal in bulk.
12:33New type of hybrid flowers called cut flowers were also seen booming sales.
12:38What are Indian festivals without new clothes?
12:41In Dada's garment market, the streets were packed with customers.
12:44It is the tradition to wear 9 different colours on 9 days of Navratri.
12:49And shops are selling in tandem with the theme.
12:52For Navratri, we have 9 different colours of sarees.
12:56All ladies have to buy 9 different colours of sarees for Navratri.
13:01For Devi, we have to buy sarees.
13:04For Devis, we have to buy khand pieces.
13:07Khand pieces are matching.
13:10All ladies want to wear Navvari sarees for festivals.
13:15So we have ready-to-wear sarees for Navvari.
13:19Customers at the market say they prefer buying from physical stores than buying it online.
13:24Inflation looms large over customers and this festive season,
13:28by all data available, is said to be a costlier one.
13:32Situation is different on ground,
13:34as large crowds are out to buy for the festivities.
13:37Despite the rise of e-commerce,
13:39retail shopkeepers are optimistic about their sales for the next 9 days.
13:43With camera person Vivek Kamre, this is Yash Tiwari for NDTV Profit.
14:05It's going to be a good festive season and it will bring good cheer to retailers as well.
14:10So what are your hopes of the type of sales that you want to see in this season?
14:17Of course, the retail sector's growth has been pegged at a modest 2% in your August survey.
14:24So that wasn't looking too good.
14:27Good evening and season's greetings to all of you.
14:31I think you said it right.
14:33Up to about August, the growth was anywhere from 2% to 3% to 4%,
14:38depending upon the month that we talk about.
14:41But we do believe that there is hope for retailers because this is definitely a festive season.
14:47People want to come and shop normally.
14:50There is nothing in the market that says that they should not be shopping.
14:54Some of the things that were happening,
14:56and I believe that's one of the things that customers are doing,
14:59is that they've got alternative places to put their money.
15:02They're definitely traveling quite a bit.
15:04Many customers have bought very large items like houses, cars, etc.,
15:08for which they are paying EMIs.
15:10So that's kind of keeping them slightly wary of spending on non-discretionary products.
15:17But we will have to wait and watch.
15:19Right, so you are saying that they are still spending money,
15:23but the areas where they are spending money are different now.
15:27It's more experience-based spending.
15:29So we have reports coming in that a lot of people are still spending a lot on traveling,
15:35on holidaying, on clothing, for instance.
15:39There's been a lot of focus on clothing.
15:41So is that something that you're picking up?
15:44Yes, travel and buying houses, etc., was definitely on the anvil for many of the middle-class consumers.
15:53I think when it comes to the bottom of the pyramid, the poorer consumers,
16:00they've been slightly worried because they are still trying to grapple with the inflation
16:04that hit them about a couple of years before,
16:06although the inflation issues are not as big currently.
16:09But clothing has been a question mark because at times clothing is done well,
16:16but suddenly it seems to dip.
16:18It is seen as a discretionary item.
16:20However, we believe that from whatever we are hearing now from the market,
16:24from the start of Pooja onwards, customers are now back to buying clothes.
16:29So we'll have to see where it goes.
16:31All right, and in terms of categories, where do you see the big growth in this festive season?
16:36Obviously, perhaps food and groceries.
16:38QSR jewelry is one thing that usually picks up in terms of demand during the festive season.
16:46Yes, actually, many consumers initially start off with wanting to buy their clothing, definitely,
16:53and then it is jewelry because jewelry is big for the season.
16:56People also start meeting each other, so eating out also happens quite a bit.
17:01So we'd expect that some of the restaurants should do better business as days go by now.
17:05Plus, there's a whole lot of holidays in various parts of the country for people for Diwali.
17:10Again, that brings people to come in and meet with each other and then meet in common places like restaurants, etc.
17:17Travel, like you said, is definitely on the growth path.
17:21Later on, when Diwali happens, I think many people also start buying gifts for others.
17:27That's when the real surge happens, and people then start buying gifts,
17:31which includes homeware, various accessories, etc., for others.
17:35And that's the other part that we'd like to wait and watch.
17:38The question is whether customers are going to buy only for themselves,
17:41or are they going to feel nice, and would they be spending money to gift others?
17:46This is what we had seen immediately after COVID, where customers were definitely buying for themselves,
17:52but they are feeling so good about the fact that they all kind of came out of this.
17:56They were also wanting to appreciate relationships they had.
17:59They bought a lot of gifts.
18:00So I'd hope that the need for buying gifts for each other also increases.
18:05Oh, yes, absolutely.
18:06As you pointed out, bespoke gifting was something that saw a lot of growth in the past years.
18:13But Mr. Rajagopalan, how much of an issue is inflation?
18:16Because if you hear people talk, everybody has just got one complaint that things are so expensive.
18:22So do you see that dampening the festival season?
18:26Well, the inflation has not been as great this year as it was definitely last year.
18:33And once prices have gone up, people would still feel the pinch for one and a half, two years' time.
18:38So that is definitely there.
18:40I hope that it doesn't dampen the spirit.
18:43But if they have bought large items and there is EMI getting cut from their money that they are taking home,
18:49then that could possibly keep them slightly away.
18:52I'm also seeing other places where customers are spending.
18:55People are also putting more money into the markets.
18:58You can see that the markets are buzzing.
19:00And that would mean that there is some amount of money going into SIPs and various other things that they do.
19:05So again, I mean, we'd have to see where customers are going to spend.
19:10But more importantly, how confident are they about their future?
19:14Because that's what makes them go and spend.
19:16And one last question on consumer durables now.
19:20White goods are always on everybody's list.
19:23People keep waiting the whole year.
19:25There are, of course, a lot of sales also that we see during this period.
19:30What's your sense on that?
19:32White goods, in many months, they've actually done well.
19:36It is also directly linked to occasions and introductions.
19:39For example, the summer season was very good for the white goods because of the fact that people are buying refrigerators, air conditioners, etc.
19:48And that made the business look good.
19:51Post that, I think there has been a couple of launches of new phones.
19:54Personal phones become a very big requirement for many.
19:58And that immediately increases businesses for the CDIT sellers, the Consumer Durables and Information Technology sellers.
20:07Because now, again, iPhone 15, 16, now 16 has come.
20:11Samsung introduced their latest phones.
20:13So I think every time there are new phones that come in, again, there is some buzz in the market.
20:19People in the premium part of the segment are definitely spending.
20:24The question for us has always been what's going to happen to people in the middle.
20:28That's what we'll have to see where it goes.
20:30But white goods can be a big gifting item too.
20:33All right, Mr. Rajagopalan, thank you very much for taking out the time to speak to us on The Big Story this evening.
20:38Thank you very much. Thank you.
20:41Now, the Bank of America has also come out with a note about what they are expecting from this festive season.
20:46Here is Mahima with the report.
20:51Bofa on festive demand.
20:52They sat with Datum Intelligence and they've come out with key details as to how festive trends will play out.
20:58They're expecting a sales growth of 23% YY versus 16% last year.
21:03Now, spending in customers' mind is on the up rise and 65% of online buyers indicate spending more.
21:09And 60% of users are set to spend more than 50K this year, which is much higher than that of last year.
21:15And around $20 billion gross merchandise value will be generated via online commerce platforms.
21:20And 1 billion out of this will be done through quick commerce.
21:23So what they're saying is that quick commerce players will drive growth.
21:26And festive spending done offline earlier may move towards the quick commerce side more this time.
21:31Now, in terms of festive trends, they expect strong momentum for Zomato.
21:36And this could be a good catalyst for Zomato as well.
21:38And in terms of festive trends, three waves are being observed.
21:42The first one being users are curbing spending two, three months prior to the festive demand so that they can purchase more in festive season.
21:48And products are also being purchased on credit.
21:50Plus, users are willing to spend more on fear of missing out of offers as well as discounts.
21:55Now, in terms of consumption trends, what they're seeing is that consumers are spending more on discretionaries like travel as well as entertainment.
22:02And discretionary spending is coming at the cost of retail purchases is the common observation.
22:09And people are trying newer things in fashion when it comes to brands as well as ticket sizes have changed overall in terms of fashion.
22:16In terms of sales trends, smartphones are seeing no longer, you know, the kind of traction that they used to.
22:22Because the upgrade cycle has, you know, for the life cycle of a smartphone has now become longer.
22:29In terms of grossities, festive share will grow up to 13 percent versus 10 percent.
22:34In terms of electronics also, pre-spending limits are strong in terms of festive demand.
22:38And quick commerce will dominate more than 50 percent of online grossity sales.
22:42And in terms of what categories will boost, well, it's the beauty and personal care, stationary, smartphones.
22:49In terms of fashion e-commerce also, fast delivery and limited selection will be on the focus.
22:55And in terms of the FMCG brand, growth via quick commerce, bigger SQ sizes will be seen growing.
23:04And in terms of kiranas, they'll be impacted by quick commerce as well as dark stores.
23:08And overall, you know, of course, this is not from the BOFA report, but overall stocks that one can, you know, keep an eye on in terms of festive demand.
23:17Well, jewelry stocks like Senko, Kalyan, Titan, P.N. Gadgil.
23:20In retail, we'll have stocks like Trent, Raymond, Brainbees, WeMart, Ethos.
23:24In QSR, we'll have stocks like Sapphire, Devian International, as well as Jubilant Foodworks.
23:28Snacks, we'll see Gopal, snacks, Bikaji.
23:31Paints will also be in focus.
23:33Hotels will also be in focus.
23:34Of course, airlines in terms of tools and travel will also be in focus.
23:39And stocks like EasyMyTrip, Thermoscope could see some traction.
23:43And even autos will see some kind of, you know, uptick in terms of vehicle sales.
23:47And consumer durables like Waltas, Bluestar, and EMS like Epax, Irma, and Dixon could also see, you know, a lot of traction when it comes to festive sales.
23:56Well, Pujo is a festival deeply cherished in Bengal and is usually marked by vibrant celebrations and bustling markets.
24:03However, this year, ground reports indicate a stark contrast in consumer behavior.
24:07Despite the grandeur of the festivities, sales have remained unusually slow.
24:11With only Sundays showing any uptick in footfall, local businesses typically flourishing during the period are facing lower than expected revenue, raising concerns about an economic strain in the region.
24:23And NDTV's Saurabh Gupta got us this ground report.
24:27Well, concern over the Pujo economy in Kolkata, given the fact that usually by this time, Puja sales have picked up.
24:38And the shopping that people do during the Pujas in West Bengal is a major contributor to West Bengal's GDP as well.
24:45This year, there have been concerns.
24:47The cloud of the RG Corp protests and also floods across the state have led to somewhat of a dip in sales, though it has picked up in the last few days.
24:59The loss in sales is something that shopkeepers in Kolkata are worried about.
25:04We are at the Goriahat area, which is a major market area.
25:08And of course, crowds also are thinner.
25:11And this area is one area that sees a lot of crowds for shopping.
25:16Some people still coming in early in the morning to perhaps get their hands on what they want to buy.
25:21But obviously, this is something that affects the market here.
25:26That is a concern for those watching the Bengali economy and for the shopkeepers who sell their products in larger quantities during the Pujo shopping season.
25:41Now, the larger brands, the larger businesses often can manage, but it is the smaller businesses that make profits for the Pujo shopping that people do, from the Pujo shopping that people do.
25:58And this time around, they definitely are worried.
26:03The improvement is in the holidays, on Saturdays and Sundays, when there is a market.
26:09That day was okay, but on normal days, the market is very bad.
26:13Next year, we have a 30% sell-down.
26:16Customers are not able to come here.
26:18Customers used to come from outside, from Jamshedpur, Hooghly.
26:21Customers are not able to come here.
26:23For some reason, they are stuck and are not able to come.
26:25When they are coming, they are taking them from the front.
26:28There is no Goriahat here.
26:30This is how it is.
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