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00:00We are now nine, ten days out from the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel.
00:10And until now, I think everyone has been expecting an Israeli response.
00:16It seemed to be imminent.
00:18Some people speculated it might come as quickly as a few days after the Iranian strike.
00:23Some people speculated that it might come around the October 7th anniversary or quickly
00:27thereafter.
00:28But apparently, the Israelis, and especially their American allies, and likely the Europeans,
00:34the Brits as well, are all taking much longer in order to convene, discuss, and it seems
00:41argue about what the Israeli response should be.
00:45And I think there are at least three major reasons for this delay, quote unquote.
00:50The first reason is that we now have reporting in Israel, and we have international reporting
00:57as well, that the Iranian missile strike on October 1st evidently significantly evaded
01:05the Israeli and U.S. and allied air defenses, unlike the earlier attack in April where virtually
01:13all of the Iranian projectiles, missiles, and drones were intercepted.
01:17This time, a significant number got through, significant number were on target, and targeted
01:22military facilities.
01:24That is starting to sort of filter through to the publics, but it seems that the leaderships
01:29around the world have been slow to realize that the Iranians had quite an effective night,
01:34in their view and from the Iranian perspective, on October 1st.
01:38That means that any Israeli reprisal could be significantly more costly for Israel, the
01:43U.S., and others because the Iranians have demonstrated capabilities to evade missile
01:50defense on October 1st.
01:52A second reason, I think, is because there is clear threats by the Iranians to hit Gulf
01:59states, perhaps Abraham Accord states like the UAE, Bahrain, but also U.S. positions
02:05in the Middle East, and also Israel, and possibly even civilian populated areas of Israel with
02:12the sophisticated Iranian ballistic missiles.
02:15So those threats really seem now to be significant.
02:19The Iranians seem capable.
02:21I think that's dawning on folks.
02:23And third factor is that the Iranian threat has been pretty clearly telegraphed, that
02:28they can strike widely, including major disruption of energy markets in the Straits of Hormuz
02:34if they hit UAE, for example, or Bahrain, and certainly if they inflict significant
02:39damage in Tel Aviv, for example, or elsewhere in Israel.
02:43A third reason, I think, why is because – actually, I think this is probably the most important
02:47one, which is that the Israelis cannot likely do the kind of strike that would be necessary
02:56to eliminate the Iranians' offensive missile capabilities.
02:59They can't do it without the American Air Force and without the Americans in general.
03:04The Israelis simply do not have the kind of capabilities, we think, which perhaps can
03:10decapitate the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
03:13But Iran is a huge state and is a totally different situation militarily, politically,
03:20strategically.
03:21So I think right now the major factor is, combined with the obvious Iranian capabilities,
03:28is that the Israelis and the Americans have to do a joint operation.
03:33Because if they don't do a joint operation, that means that you will likely have significant
03:38remaining Iranian offensive missile capabilities that could strike energy markets, that could
03:44lead to global economic disruptions, that could significantly harm Gulf states like
03:49the UAE and Bahrain, and also potentially lead to a further escalation and a kind of
03:54war of cities between Iran and Israel.
03:58And I think that right now the Biden administration has to decide is it indeed going to go forward
04:04with and see its escalate-to-de-escalate strategy that they recently publicly endorsed?
04:10Are they going to see it through to the end with the Israelis?
04:13And the end, I think, for the Israelis and the American point of view, is a full strike
04:18on Iran that at the very least will significantly degrade or eliminate the Iranian offensive
04:26missile capabilities.
04:27This is the main way that right now the Iranians can project military power.
04:32And in my view, it's going to be very, very difficult for the Israelis to do that on their
04:37own, and the blowback from a partial strike or a strike on leadership even is going to
04:43be significant from the Iranians.
04:45So the Americans and a democratic administration, Team Biden, needs to make these decisions
04:51soon if they are going to join their Israeli allies, because militarily it seems that is
04:57the only way.
04:59These are undoubtedly difficult debates and discussions that are happening now and that
05:03have been lengthened in recent days.
05:05So we may see an Israeli retaliation soon.
05:08We may also see it in the coming days.
05:10But it's obviously taking time because of the gravity of this situation and the gravity
05:15of a potential Israeli or Israeli-American strike on Iran.