Will Freeman, becario de Estudios Latinoamericanos del CFR, se une a "Forbes Newsroom" para dar su opinión sobre la elección de Claudia Sheinbaum a la presidencia de México.
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00:00Hi everyone, I'm Maggie McGrath, editor of Forbes Women, and we are here to talk about
00:07a history-making election in Mexico.
00:10On Sunday, Claudia Scheinbaum won the Mexican presidential election and became the first
00:14woman in her country to become president.
00:17She is also the first Jewish person to hold the role.
00:20Here to talk more about her victory and what it means for Mexico is Will Freeman.
00:24He's a fellow for Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and he is
00:29in Mexico City right now.
00:31Will, thank you so much for joining us.
00:32Thanks for having me.
00:34Okay, so you're speaking live from Mexico City.
00:38You were there for the elections last night.
00:41Tell us, what are you seeing on the ground and what is the mood of the electorate right
00:45now?
00:46You know, on the one hand, this was a landslide that most people saw coming.
00:51If you looked at the polls, Claudia Scheinbaum was holding a between 10 and 20, 25 point
00:57lead above her nearest rival for weeks.
01:00So this has been a campaign without a lot of suspense.
01:03Most people thought they knew where it was going.
01:05On the other hand, I would say that there was still enthusiasm.
01:08I went around several different neighborhoods in Mexico City yesterday talking to voters,
01:13and you know, I think overall, their responses matched up pretty much with what we saw in
01:18the election.
01:19The fact that 60% of voters supported Claudia Scheinbaum to the next candidate's 30%.
01:26So it really, it really was a landslide for the ruling party.
01:31Before we get into the nitty gritty of Mexican politics, can you just give us a very brief
01:36overview of the structure of the Mexican government for those who might not be familiar with it?
01:41And is it structured similarly to the American government?
01:44You know, somewhat similarly, it's also a presidential system.
01:49In Mexico's case, until now, with multiple political parties, not just two.
01:54So what you have here is a strong presidency.
01:58The president can hold office for six years and cannot be reelected after that.
02:03That's a very strong norm here in Mexico.
02:05So Claudia Scheinbaum will have six years ahead of her and that's it.
02:09Now in addition to the president, there's a Senate, a Congress, and also a Supreme Court,
02:15which for now is selected through a judicial process independently, but which Claudia Scheinbaum
02:21and her party have suggested should be actually selected through popular vote.
02:24So that is one proposal we may see put soon to Congress, is whether or not to reform
02:29the Constitution to elect Supreme Court judges and actually also elect the people who administer
02:34the entire judiciary.
02:36That change could make the system look quite unlike that of the United States and most
02:39other democracies.
02:42A popular vote for the judiciary, that blows my American mind.
02:46But while we're on policy, Will, can you tell us what were the other policies that
02:51Scheinbaum ran on and what was her strategy broadly going into this election?
02:58Her biggest message was that she is here to continue the policies of the president who's
03:02held power for the last six years, a man named Andres Manuel López Obrador, sometimes called
03:07AMLO.
03:08AMLO is a nationalist populist.
03:10He started governing, began his political career as a governor in a very poor state
03:16of southern Mexico, ran every political campaign against the political elites and what he perceived
03:24as kind of a wealthy few controlling the country.
03:26And eventually he won in 2018, also in a landslide.
03:30He became quite popular before and as he held the presidency by hiking the minimum wage,
03:35by increasing social transfers and cash transfers to the poor, but also very controversial.
03:39He empowered the military.
03:42He was very harsh defenders of the environment.
03:45So he combined views that we sometimes think of as right wing and left wing.
03:48Now Scheinbaum has basically said that she's going to continue those policies.
03:51She's been by Andres Manuel López Obrador's side for the past 25 years, 24 years, excuse
03:56me, one of his closest political allies.
03:58However, Scheinbaum herself has a very different profile, which makes people think that maybe
04:02she has different ideas about where the country should go.
04:05She's a climate scientist.
04:06She comes from the student movement in Mexico, which is much more, let's say, traditional
04:11kind of leftists in the sense of caring deeply about human rights, considering themselves
04:16progressives, somewhat closer to the mold of those in the US.
04:20So we'll see.
04:21Scheinbaum may make, I think, important changes on energy policy, on fiscal policy, potentially
04:27on the environment.
04:29But I think no matter what she does, though, she will be trying to sustain this legacy
04:33of AMLO and appeal to that same base.
04:37I have spoken to one or two members of the Forbes global audience, someone who lives
04:41in Mexico.
04:42And when you talk about that legacy, this person said to me that Mexican citizens that
04:49she's around are feeling a great deal of uncertainty and are very worried, I think in part because
04:55of the large majority that Scheinbaum's party holds right now.
05:00But what have you been hearing?
05:02Are people concerned and do these concerns resonate with you?
05:05Well, you know, it's a divided country, but I think what you do see in the election results
05:10is that there's a strong majority that likes the direction that López Obrador is taking
05:15the country, you know, for good or for ill.
05:18What is disconcerting, I think, to the minority of opposition supporters or of López Obrador
05:23and Scheinbaum critics is that the political party of López Obrador and Scheinbaum has
05:27grown so quickly that they argue that it's not leaving space for many other checks and
05:32balances for other political parties that might balance things out.
05:37I think it's going to be a really tough road ahead for critics of this government, this
05:40party, because unfortunately, their political parties have lost a lot of credibility.
05:44They're almost going to start to have to build from the bottom up, I think connecting at
05:48the grassroots with those who've been disadvantaged by López Obrador's policies, and it'll probably
05:53take a really long time.
05:54So, you know, the critics, I think they have some real concerns, they have some value concerns,
05:59but we have to recognize that for this election, they are firmly in the minority.
06:04Indeed, the numbers are strongly in Scheinbaum's favor.
06:08Now, we talked about the historic nature of the fact that she is a woman, but she is also
06:13the first Jewish person to be elected president of Mexico.
06:16This is a country that is, according to the most recent statistics on the matter, 78% Roman Catholic.
06:23Will, do you know, is she the first Jewish president of a majority Catholic country?
06:29You know, I think that she might be.
06:31You also have the case of Javira Millet in Argentina, who's converted to Judaism recently.
06:37But as far as I'm aware, in terms of having a deep family history in that tradition,
06:42Scheinbaum would be the first in Latin America.
06:44Now, it is, I think, important to note that she considers herself secular.
06:50You know, her family were refugees from Eastern Europe, both for their religious identity
06:54and their political views, and she grew up in a secular household.
06:58On the campaign trail, she has emphasized shared values among Mexicans,
07:02including that Catholic heritage.
07:04So it hasn't been, I would say, a major talking point or theme in the campaign here,
07:08except for a few very ugly attacks you saw, you know,
07:12alleging that she was not Mexican enough by some of her critics.
07:18So is there significance for the Jewish people of Mexico or even beyond in her election,
07:24do you think?
07:25You know, I'm sure there is.
07:26I think that it shows that in Latin America writ large,
07:29we're seeing an increasingly diverse people, a pool of people holding office.
07:33Keep in mind that it's extremely significant that Mexico just elected its first woman president,
07:38but this is following in the path of Brazil, of Chile, of Argentina, of Costa Rica.
07:43This is a world region that leads, for instance,
07:46the US and parts of Europe by quite a bit when it comes to women's representation in politics.
07:50And, you know, also you're seeing increasingly Indigenous people and Indigenous political parties
07:54elected, you know, a number of different groups that weren't traditionally,
07:59didn't traditionally tend to hold power, have, you know,
08:02tended to see their representation expand because of democracy.
08:05So I think that that's one thing which we can point to as a real advance,
08:08as honestly a strong point for Latin America,
08:11even as we're all aware of the many other challenges this region faces,
08:14from slow economic growth to organized criminal violence.
08:18Are there lessons that the United States should be taking from her victory
08:22when it comes to electing women?
08:25I mean, I think, of course, you know,
08:27it would be ideal if our countries were moving quicker in that direction.
08:31And, you know, certainly now if we do catch up, and I hope we do,
08:35it'll be after this long list of countries that I just mentioned.
08:38In the Americas, this long list of democracies.
08:41Now, just this afternoon, President Biden indicated that he intends to sign an executive
08:46order that will limit asylum seekers at the US-Mexico border.
08:51I don't know, has Scheinbaum commented on this?
08:54And perhaps more broadly, what does her election mean for US-Mexico relations?
09:00No, not that I've seen.
09:02She's just, the election here is just wrapping up.
09:06And so really, the focus has been domestic.
09:08Okay, I think migration in Mexico, there's two things to say about this issue.
09:12One is that Mexico is often enlisted to do the enforcement
09:17that the US doesn't want to do or can't do, or simply needs Mexico's cooperation to do.
09:22So the Mexican border officials and immigration authorities are extremely involved
09:27in detaining immigrants that are headed down towards the US,
09:30to detaining irregular migrants, to deporting them further south.
09:35And that's become, you know, a hallmark of governments here going back years.
09:39But Lopez Obrador has recently really stepped things up.
09:41Since January, the enforcement against irregular migrants traveling through Mexico has increased.
09:46That's why we've seen fewer migrants showing up at the US-Mexico border.
09:50There's actually been quite a significant drop.
09:52And, you know, I think it'll depend if Scheinbaum considers,
09:56excuse me, can continue some of those strong enforcement policies,
09:59whether that trend will continue.
10:01Now, that said, the second point I would mention is that Mexico
10:03is increasingly a destination country for migrants.
10:06Both migrants who want to make it to the US and end up
10:09having no means to go further, building lives here.
10:12And those who seek asylum here from Central American countries and from further south.
10:16So Mexico is now becoming an important host country to migrants.
10:19That is creating some friction, some challenges.
10:22I think it's also an opportunity for the country.
10:25This is an aging country that needs more young workers.
10:28And, you know, there's certain advantages to the fact that
10:32more and more people are seeing opportunity here in Mexico.
10:34Scheinbaum, I think, will try to work with whoever is elected the next US president,
10:38whatever his migration policy might be.
10:41But I do think that with a second Trump term, there could be definite tensions.
10:45I know Scheinbaum's team would not look kindly, for instance,
10:48on the reimposition of a policy called Remain in Mexico,
10:51which had asylum seekers essentially forced to wait on the Mexico side of the border.
10:56Look, in northern Mexico, that creates all types of really troublesome,
11:00disturbing dynamics, even.
11:01There's large-scale migrant kidnapping by organized crime groups.
11:05Obviously, this puts stress on local communities.
11:07So Mexico views that as a bit of a vulnerability.
11:10And I think that the more extreme the next president is on migration
11:14and on really trying to lock down the US border, regardless of the costs,
11:18the more friction that could create with the Scheinbaum government.
11:22So it sounds like the November elections in the US could have a real impact on her term,
11:29or at least four years of her term.
11:31If it's Biden, it's kind of the status quo.
11:33But if it's Trump, it's a return to extremist policies that make her job more difficult.
11:39Yeah, and it's worth noting here that AMLO,
11:42interestingly enough, despite considering himself a leftist,
11:44had a very friendly relationship with Donald Trump,
11:47and sometimes continues to suggest that he has a friendly relationship.
11:51Scheinbaum, I think there'll be more friction, again,
11:52because she comes from the student movement, this human rights-focused left,
11:56because she is herself a scientist.
11:58I think that there are a number of personal factors there
12:00that can make their relationship quite tough.
12:02Her team is still being careful to say, we'll work with anybody.
12:05And frankly, that's the way it has to be.
12:06The US and Mexico are each other's largest trading partners.
12:09We share a very long land border of course,
12:12and we're just deeply integrated as countries.
12:14So of course that cooperation needs to be there, regardless of who's in office.
12:18But again, I do think that it may be rougher down the road
12:21between Scheinbaum and, let's say, a second Trump term
12:24than it was between her predecessor, AMLO, and Donald Trump his last time around.
12:29What's the number one thing you expect to see from her in her first term?
12:33I think that, again, I expect to see her pledging to continue
12:37López Obrador's most popular policies.
12:40Those were, again, increasing the minimum wage.
12:42There's another increase planned for next year.
12:45Those include cash transfers to the youth of Mexico
12:49and to older adults, universal cash transfers.
12:53But I think that she's also going to have to figure out how to finance all this.
12:56Now, López Obrador was very careful with financing,
13:01with balancing the budget.
13:05His first year is in office.
13:06However, his last year he started to spend big,
13:09many people believe, with the idea of turning out the vote,
13:11which seems to have worked pretty effectively for him.
13:14But now Scheinbaum is left with a pretty tricky fiscal situation,
13:17the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in Mexico for several years, and I think decades.
13:23So she's going to probably have to make some cuts somewhere.
13:28She may have to pass a tax reform, which will be politically difficult.
13:31So it'll be, again, that balance between sustaining what made Amlo popular
13:34in terms of economic and social policy,
13:38but also figuring out how to make it more sustainable for the long run.
13:41Excellent. Well, Will Freedman, thank you so much for joining us.
13:43We so appreciate your insight.