Peter Klein gives his expert analysis of CFL Week 19 with a full preview of every game on the schedule. As the season heats up, Peter dives into the key matchups, team performances, and playoff implications. Whether you're following your favorite team or looking for insightful predictions, this CFL Week 19 breakdown has you covered!
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00:00So, unlike the NFL, there's going to be no point spread picks in this one.
00:14If you want what I think are the best plays for that, check out the best bets article
00:19over at 3downnation right now.
00:21Article?
00:22Piece?
00:23I never really know what to call it.
00:24I'll tell you, a piece feels very incorrect.
00:31It feels very much like I'm trying to be something that I am not.
00:35And I'm not just looking at stats and hammering out a piece after I do trivia on a Wednesday
00:39night.
00:40But I just linked it in the chat for those of you who are watching live.
00:44That is the 3down piece with my best bets picks for this week in the CFL.
00:50We went perfect last week with a nice little 3-0 mark, and we are actually 6-3 in the last
00:58three weeks.
00:59So, that's how it's going.
01:01But quickly on the CFL, we'll just break these games down a little bit.
01:05Winnipeg is looking like a complete football team.
01:07And it still didn't look perfect in the first half last week against Hamilton, but
01:11boy did it look better in the second half.
01:13And the one thing that I think you can really buy into from a Winnipeg standpoint right
01:18now is how well that defense is playing.
01:21They have been giving up an average of 190 yards through the air in the last three weeks
01:26since the two wild games against Saskatchewan.
01:30They have done a really good job of limiting teams.
01:33Now, that's Edmonton twice and Hamilton once.
01:35So I can understand that maybe there is a bit of a hesitance to like, okay, maybe we're
01:39not taking this team super seriously.
01:41But again, that was Edmonton on their real good run, getting close to a playoff spot,
01:48and Hamilton kind of the same.
01:49Hamilton was on a roll, and then Winnipeg just shut that down last week.
01:53So I think that defense is going to be good enough to limit things for Toronto.
01:56The one thing that gave me the slightest bit of pause on this game is Toronto's defense
02:01has been really good against the run.
02:04And Winnipeg still sets up so much of their offense around Brady Oliveira, and really
02:09tries to get him going, and establishes him as a guy that is the focal point of their
02:15offense.
02:16So they've done a good job.
02:17Like, against Saskatchewan, the Riders were able to bottle him up in the run game, but
02:21he was able to go out and get it done in the pass game.
02:23And so they have still been able to use him in ways that gets him going, and puts them
02:28in favorable situations on second down.
02:30So I think they're going to be able to scheme that up again.
02:32I'm going to go Winnipeg in this game.
02:35Saskatchewan taking on the BC Lions.
02:38If the Lions were playing a style of football that I felt confident in, I would go with
02:43the Lions here.
02:44Whereas Saskatchewan, they do have the three wins in a row.
02:47There's still something missing offensively, but they are at least getting there.
02:51But this defense, they've gotten healthy, and now they're excellent again.
02:56And really putting pressure on quarterbacks, and forcing some very bad decisions.
03:01So it's going to be a really intriguing matchup to see how that one goes.
03:05And I do also think a big part of what Saskatchewan is able to do is their run defense is, I think
03:11it's second best in the league right now.
03:13And that one you can kind of quibble on a little bit, just because Toronto has allowed
03:19the fewest rush yards in the league, and fewest yards per game.
03:22But teams are also running on them the least amount.
03:25And part of that is, well it's not working so why would we keep doing it?
03:28But also, you know, it's just game flow, right?
03:31And how different games go.
03:33So Saskatchewan still has one of the best, one of the best, we'll say, run defenses
03:37in the league.
03:38And if they can limit Stanback, which they've been able to do this year, if they can limit
03:42him and force Roerich into those 2nd and 8th, 2nd and 9th type of situations, those
03:47are the spots where this defense has been able to take advantage of teams and really
03:53force them into turnovers and force them into mistakes.
03:57And so that's where I think Saskatchewan thrives.
03:59And also, I think it's going to be a bit of a quieter game for Stanback.
04:04So we will see.
04:05But the thing that I always tell you to watch, on the Ryder side, is make sure that you see
04:10how this team is calling plays and how they are executing.
04:13If they are able to, because so many times it's just run on 1st down, Harris pass for
04:17the rest on 2nd down.
04:19If it is either Armstead, Ouellette, Hickson, whoever it is in that backfield, if they're
04:24able to get 4, 5, 6 yards on 1st down, this offense runs so much smoother than when it's
04:32the other way and teams have figured it out and now Harris, who is so good at throwing
04:37for 6 yards when you need 8 on 2nd down, we'll see how that goes.
04:41But I do think Saskatchewan, home field advantage and all that as well, get the win.
04:45And they pick up a victory over BC.
04:47Edmonton taking on Calgary, both of these teams aren't very good.
04:51I do think that the Stampeders are just worse right now.
04:55And so that is the main piece of the analysis, is that I think the Stampeders are a worse
05:00football team than the Edmonton Elks.
05:02And so I have to pick Edmonton.
05:03But also, Calgary's run defense is one of the worst in the league.
05:07And the Elks, with Trey Ford in there, they have turned him a bit more into just a passer
05:12this year, but they have been able to run the ball so effectively in games where he
05:16has played, because so much of the focus is on what Trey Ford is going to do, and teams
05:21just forget that others can run the football.
05:24There's a few more stats for that in the 3-down piece there, if you want to check that
05:29one out.
05:30But yes, I just think that Edmonton's strengths match up with Calgary's weaknesses so effectively.
05:38The one stat that is a little bit skewed in this, and I don't believe I put it in the
05:413-down piece, but you look at the turnover differential, and you think that, okay, well
05:46these two teams, they really don't match up.
05:48And the one thing is that, and now, the numbers are skewed because of their matchups together,
05:53so that is the counterpoint to it.
05:55That Edmonton's, Edmonton's turnover differential is boosted by the fact that they got 9 against
06:03Calgary in those two games around Labor Day, so this isn't the ball hawking defense that
06:07those stats would lead you to believe, and I have no idea what the offense looks like
06:10with Schill's under center for Calgary, but I just, I think he's going to have to score
06:14a lot of points to keep up with what Edmonton is going to be able to do.
06:18And on Thanksgiving Monday, it is Montreal taking on the Ottawa Red Blacks, Ottawa has
06:22been just dominated by Montreal's defense this year.
06:26I think that the looks that they show have just completely thrown this offense off, and
06:30whether it is Brown or Massoli under center, turnovers have been a big problem for the
06:35Red Blacks.
06:36I think that continues here.
06:37I think Montreal picks up the dub.