10 Day Trend - High pressure next week? 14/08/19
Has autumn arrived early this year or is there any sign of high pressure for the second half of August? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has this week’s 10 Day Trend.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. If you are on your summer holidays,
00:05if you are fed up with the rain and you're hoping for an immediate improvement in the
00:08weather, well, I've got bad news for you. Over the next five days, we keep low pressure,
00:13we keep more of the same, rain at times, breezy and cool. So is that the rest of summer written
00:19off? Well, actually, no, because the five days after that promise high pressure, turning
00:26drier and sunnier, summer returning next week in many places. And actually, Thursday itself
00:35isn't looking too unpleasant, a lot of cloud first thing, a keen breeze, a cool feel, showers
00:41at first, but the showers do ease by the end of the afternoon, increasingly sunny skies,
00:45temperatures of 23 Celsius in the south, 17, 18 further north. So Thursday, a respite,
00:52but low pressure returns. Heading into Friday, you can see it's coming quite quickly along
00:57across north-western Britain. For the start of Friday, this low pressure rattling in and
01:02bringing weather fronts with it. Persistent rain to begin the day across Scotland, Northern
01:07Ireland, Northern England, Wales and the south-west. And across England and Wales, well, it's a
01:12wet day, that rain eventually reaching East Anglia and the south-east by the afternoon.
01:17A lot of cloud cover as well, some brightness emerging in the north-west where the rain
01:22does ease, but heavy showers follow and you can see the brighter colours there, especially
01:26for parts of Wales into the Midlands and south-west, some lively downpours, a strengthening wind
01:33as well, coastal gales for some exposed coasts in the north-west and temperatures, well,
01:38a little below average. So feeling cool on Friday, especially we've got that prolonged
01:42rainfall, low pressure well and truly in charge. And actually, this low, when it turns up
01:47on Friday, sticks around through the weekend. You can see Saturday into Sunday, that low
01:52pressure anchored to the north of Scotland, not moving very far, very fast. It's here
01:58to stay for a few days and the tightness of the ice bars indicates it's certainly going
02:02to be a blustery weekend. Not quite as windy and as wet as last weekend, but nevertheless
02:09not ideal for any outdoor events or camping or whatever through the middle part of August.
02:16Jetstream of course to blame if we run that sequence through again. You can see the low
02:20pressure anchored to the north-west and the jetstream through the weekend continually
02:24running to the south of the UK. The colours here indicate the core strength of the jetstream
02:29and when we are sitting to the north of the jetstream, as per this weekend, it's often
02:36cool and it's often unsettled with that low pressure bringing frequent heavy downpours.
02:43Running it through again with weather fronts, you can see these weather fronts mark areas
02:47of persistent rain, only slowly clearing south, southern and southeastern Britain as we begin
02:52the weekend, lingering close by along the channel through the weekend. And around the
02:58low pressure itself, we've also got these occluded fronts and so that means that where
03:02we don't have the frequent lively showers, we'll perhaps have long spells of rain, especially
03:08across north-west Britain. So, yeah, there will be some sunny spells this weekend, it's
03:13not a complete washout, especially across southeastern areas once the early rain clears,
03:19but these showers will affect virtually everyone. They'll rattle through on this strengthening
03:24breeze, coastal gales possible as well, certainly a blustery and unsettled changeable weekend.
03:32Feeling cool with that as well, this is the weather chart for Saturday, very little difference
03:36for Sunday, you can see temperatures, high teens, low twenties at best, that strong wind
03:41remaining throughout, risk of gales in places and frequent heavy showers, thunder and lightning,
03:48all of that sort of thing, especially to the north-west of the UK, a little drier and brighter
03:53to the south-east, but even here we'll have a few downpours to contend with. So all in
03:58all the weekend is looking changeable. There will be some sunshine, it's not going to be
04:02raining all the time everywhere, but there will be those frequent heavy showers moving
04:06through quickly one after the other and it's going to be windy and on the cool side. Similarly
04:12on Monday as well, 13 degrees there across some northern areas with this northerly breeze.
04:19There will be a bit more sunshine developing further south and increasingly so through
04:24Tuesday, Wednesday and into Thursday. You can see this area of high pressure to the
04:29south-west of the UK starts to exert more of an influence. We've lost that queue of
04:34low pressure systems that we've had through the last couple of weeks. And although that
04:39high pressure is building in, well the jet stream is still to the south of the UK and
04:43we're still in relatively cool air. So high pressure, yes, but not an immediate return
04:49to summer heat because that high pressure moves in, it's going to be cool at first through
04:53next week, temperatures only slowly rising as that high pressure starts to dominate and
04:59it does look likely that it will dominate through next week and possibly into the August
05:03Bank holiday weekend. However, always the chance that to the north-west of the UK we'll
05:08have low pressure coming through to give some showery rain at times, so there's always that
05:12chance. But on the whole, certainly an improving picture through next week. High pressure builds
05:18in from the south-west, turning things drier and sunnier fairly widely across the UK and
05:24slowly warming up. No heatwave just yet, but a return to more summer-like weather following
05:31the autumnal conditions of this week. And of course you can follow the detail day-to-day
05:35by following us on social media. Bye-bye.