Is China 'testing their capabilities of encircling, invading Taiwan or testing reaction' from West?
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00:00For more, let's cross to Jean-Francois DiMeglio, president of the Asia Center Think Tank.
00:05Thanks for being with us here on France 24.
00:08Hello.
00:09You heard in that report there the Taiwanese defense minister saying that the new president,
00:15Lai Ching-de, he held out an olive branch in his speech four days ago. Did he?
00:20Well, for usual observers of what's happening in Taiwan,
00:31the president's speech was not as aggressive as Beijing pretends. Of course, the word
00:38independence is the red line for China. And of course, the new president would refrain from using
00:44this word. So it's quite usual for China to have those drills right after the Double 10
00:52festive holiday, which is the celebration of the first Republic of China, which was installed
00:58on mainland China in 1912. If you were rated, we know these war games were not as big as those
01:08that followed the visit of then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi back in 2022. But Jean-Francois
01:16DiMeglio, were you surprised at the size and scale of the war games?
01:22Well, it's always difficult to really interpret what China aims at. What I would like to stress
01:30is that probably the main goal which China pursues is not necessarily to test the waters
01:38and test its capability to invade and encircle Taiwan. Probably what China is aiming at is to
01:46test the reaction of foreign countries, and especially us. I think we should be extremely
01:52concerned about what's happening. Notwithstanding the size of the drills, whether they are low-key,
01:59whether they're high-level, the response from democratic countries should be the same every
02:06time China is aiming at offending Taiwan's positioning. What you can note here is two
02:13elements which were not necessarily present previously. One is the important number of
02:20coastguards, and we all know that coastguards are an increasing tool that China is using.
02:26You had 17 coastguards vessels used in this encirclement this time, just the same number
02:33as war vessels, 17. And you also had the Liaoning aircraft carrier which was used east of Taiwan.
02:41So this is probably what we should remember about those drills. For the rest, I think once again,
02:49China is trying to get us used to it and probably, I wouldn't say get fed up, but get less sensitive
03:00to what China is aiming at. And of course, the less reaction China gets from the West,
03:06be it US, be it European Union, the more it incites China to repeat such drills.
03:14And just to be clear on this, Jean-Francois, you're saying that stepped-up presence of the
03:19coastguard, it's a message not just to Taiwan, but also to the United States and to the likes of
03:26what, Vietnam, the Philippines? Absolutely. There is an increasing
03:33capability for coastguards in China, and that also points out the fact that China considers
03:44the whole South China Sea, and of course, what we call the Taiwan Straits, as something which
03:50could be brought in by coastguards, just as if it was just national waters, which it's not.
03:59I would like also to point out the fact that China did not test what we call the
04:07territorial waters of Taiwan. There is no entry into the territorial waters of Taiwan.
04:14So that also could show the limitation of the drills this time around.
04:20All right. We've seen many times these drills, as you say, around Taiwan. We see right now that
04:27President Lai's predecessor is in Europe, in Prague this Monday, Tsai Ing-wen defending
04:34Taiwan's sovereignty at a conference on democracy. She's also due to meet with European lawmakers in
04:40Brussels, and there's a stopover that was scheduled in Paris. Again, if we're talking
04:47about testing China, what can we expect will be the reaction, and how will her visit go down?
04:55Well, a stop in Czech Republic is in line with the position of the Czech Republic currently,
05:04which is one of the supporting countries to Taiwan in Eastern Europe. Remember,
05:10there used to be the 17 plus 1 group organized by China, 17 countries in Eastern Europe,
05:16some belonging to European Union, some not belonging to European Union. As of now,
05:21the 17 plus 1 group to which Czech Republic used to belong is almost dissolved, and that shows
05:30how much China has lost credibility in this region. Now, for Brussels and Paris,
05:37that would be a major blow, and that would be very interesting to see whether indeed
05:43President Tsai or former President Tsai stops over in Paris, because that would be
05:48definitely a breakthrough, and that would be a display of courage for both European Union
05:55leaders and also French leaders. Personally, I would, of course, welcome this, but I doubt
06:01this could happen. Another reaction that I want to read to you is that of the German Chancellor,
06:09Olaf Scholz, who was at a joint press conference with the President of the European Commission
06:14this Monday. He talked about when it comes to the China and Taiwan question, quote,
06:18we assume nobody will try to change things by force. He was then drawn on to the sort of tariff
06:25war that's brewing over the dumping of Chinese electric vehicles for Germany. China's a huge
06:33export market. Let's listen to what Olaf Scholz had to say regarding that trade row.
06:39Of course, there are issues that I have to resolve as German Chancellor, which we have
06:43also discussed, and I would like to say that this remains unchanged. I also have the impression that
06:48our common hope is that there will be an understanding with China by the end of October.
06:54So, there is a beat that there can be some kind of agreement when it comes to trade and cars.
07:00What do you think of the timing of that on the day when, as you were saying,
07:03China's testing the resolve of the West with these drills around Taiwan?
07:12Well, Germany is probably one of the weakest points in Europe, not because Germany exports
07:19to China, not only this, but because Germany's government currently is a coalition. It is very
07:26difficult to have a unified position on Chinese issues, be it trade, be it diplomatic relations.
07:34So, that probably makes Germany a weak spot in Europe. So, yes, it makes sense to test Germany
07:43and to try to shift Germany towards a milder position vis-Ă -vis China. Now, the European
07:50Commission, European Union, issued a statement after the drills. The statement reiterates the
07:57European position, which is that there should be freedom of navigation and status quo maintained.
08:07However, the communiqué by European Union comes short of saying, I would say, which one is guilty
08:15in this story? Because the communiqué states that both parties should refrain from going to extremes.
08:22Well, you know, Taiwan is not necessarily going to extremes at this point of time.
08:27And your report showed it. So, very briefly, Jean-Francois, again, this nagging question of
08:36whether Europe will be able to sell cognac and cars on the back of people's minds when they
08:41talk about Taiwan. Well, this trade issue probably underpins a shift in Europe, meaning that Europe
08:52has changed position vis-Ă -vis Chinese positioning in trade. And Europe is probably more determined.
09:00European Commission is probably more determined to enter in a more conflictual zone. Now, we will
09:06see where these conflicts lead us to. You also have to remember that China's economy at current
09:13stage is not in a very strong position. So, the leverage is probably on Europe's side and not
09:20necessarily on China's side. China, as I often say, when I come to France, China needs Europe.
09:28And Europeans should be more and more aware that China does need Europe. And we do have leverage
09:35on China, especially with trade. Jean-Francois DiMeglio, many thanks for speaking with us from Cannes.
09:41Thank you. Stay with us. More to come. More news plus the day's business and sports.