Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00set to pit a union of pro-western opposition forces against a ruling
00:04party accused of democratic backsliding and shifting towards Russia.
00:09Voters in Georgia go to the polls this Saturday as Brussels warns that the
00:14elections will be crucial for the country's long-held aspirations to join
00:18the EU. To discuss we're joined now by geopolitics and security expert
00:24Tinetin Djaparidze. Thank you so much for joining us from the Eurasia group.
00:29Firstly, these elections are being billed as a crucial test for Georgia.
00:35Russia looms large of course. Tell us what's at stake?
00:39Thank you very much Sharon, good to be with you.
00:42Well above all Sharon, the future of Georgia is at stake on October 26th and
00:46its aftermath. I honestly do not recall a Georgian election that was not
00:51described as pivotal and critical for the country's continued progress and
00:55development. But now more than ever we see that the choice is very clear.
01:01Will Georgia become a Russian satellite or can the pro-European movement that is the
01:06only answer for Georgia's future prevail?
01:09And what are the polls suggesting at this point?
01:11What way is it going to go do you think?
01:14Well the polls are really very much all over the place Sharon because on the one hand we see
01:18polls that are in many ways pushed forward and perhaps even sponsored by the government and
01:25they tell us that the government is going to enjoy another landslide win. But then on the other hand
01:30the more independent pollsters are telling us something entirely different. We're actually
01:36seeing that it's going to be a bit of a toss-up because it's very difficult right now to tell
01:41whether the Georgian dream will be able to actually, if we're being completely honest,
01:46steal the election because without rigging the election results they would not be able to win
01:51this election in a free and transparent environment. On the other hand it'll be very interesting to see
01:57whether the opposition coalitions will be able to truly come together and convince the population
02:03that they are the answer in helping Georgians to come to what they think is the only solution and
02:10that is the next stop and that is Europe.
02:13And what have some of the main concerns been for those voters? There have been concerns about
02:18Russian disinformation and interference for example, also conspiracy theories have featured
02:24in the campaign as well. Yes very much so. We have seen a lot of Russian disinformation,
02:31a lot of Russian influence not just in the pre-election period but in the years prior if
02:37we're being completely transparent. I mean even at times when we see the Georgian dreams narratives
02:44it is absolutely absurd how they tend to copy what Moscow has been saying but instead of saying
02:51it in Russian they say the same thing in Georgian. So what we're going to see in the coming days is
02:58this deepened polarization which has become inevitable. It has permeated every area of one's
03:05sort of existence in Georgia. Civil society, journalists who are unable to do their jobs,
03:11people who are genuinely concerned about going to the polls and casting their vote for the
03:17non-state actor for the opposition. They are genuinely concerned especially those people who
03:23are in their rural areas. They're concerned that they're going to lose their jobs and worse yet
03:29that they're going to endanger the safety of their family members. That is a real concern
03:35that very much reminds me of Russia around 2011-2012 when Russia's fate was also being decided
03:42and we know very well how that has ended and many Georgians are concerned that we're going to see
03:47something very similar. Georgia becoming another Belarus for example. That is a very very serious
03:54risk. And one more thing that I will add is in terms of what is part of the messaging. Now on
04:01the one hand we see this pro-European, pro-EU message that has of course had a lot of success
04:08with those in the major cities including in the capital Tbilisi. But then on the other hand there
04:14are other areas such as economic needs, economic grievances, the bread and butter issues that I
04:21think neither of the sides are necessarily responding to the way they should be because
04:27at the moment the opposition's messaging is very much aimed at the major cities throughout Georgia.
04:33And on the other hand we see the Georgian dream that is capitalizing on its continued support
04:40in the various regions of Georgia in the rural parts of the country. So it remains to be seen
04:46which of the two will end up actually tipping to one side or the other. At the moment I think it's
04:52a very very very close call and it's not so much on the 26th of October Sharon that we're going to
04:58decide the fate of the country but more so I think in the days after the election when we see
05:05what unfolds and how it unfolds. Yes because there are fears in some circles that the ruling party
05:10will try to stay in power regardless of the results. Exactly and that is a major concern.
05:17Mass demonstrations and possibly the risk of violence will be inevitable I think because what
05:22we saw in May of this year was just a teaser of what's to come. But most importantly I hope that
05:28we can avoid mass escalation if the government pulls all the stops and cracks down on protesters
05:33with Moscow's support. What worries me is Tbilisi calling Moscow and actually asking them to to do
05:40what they pledged they would do and that is to stand by the Georgian dream. We cannot rule anything
05:45out because as far as the Georgian dream is concerned they truly believe at their core that
05:50this is their final battle to stay in power no matter what even if that means going against the
05:55will of their own people, the Georgian people, that 12 years ago many of them brought them into power.
06:02A pivotal vote then as you say Tinetin this weekend. Thank you so much for joining us.
06:06We'll have to leave it there for now. That is Tinetin Japaridze from the Eurasia Group.