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00:00Let's get some analysis now with Yossi Makkelberg, who is an associate fellow on the MENA program
00:06at Chatham House. Yossi, thanks so much for joining us on the program. I'd love to just
00:11first of all get your initial reaction to these strikes.
00:15Good afternoon. Thank you for having me. I think we are in an important junction in this
00:22war. It can either go into further escalation, but it's also there is a great opportunity
00:29to move from the military sphere to the diplomatic, political one. I think we can to an extent
00:37be encouraged by what we hear from Tehran, that they dismiss the magnitude of the attack,
00:45which means they are not interested in an escalation. There will be pressure in Iran
00:50as well for an escalation. From an Israel point of view, it looks like this is the retaliation
00:57to what happened on the 1st of October, and it's happy to end there, unless they become
01:04too complacent and think that they managed to do it yesterday, they can hit Iran even
01:09further.
01:10Well, Yossi, today's attack was more limited in scope than many had feared. We had many
01:18reports in the lead up to the attacks that Washington was having many conversations with
01:23Israel about the kind of counter strike that they would carry out. The Biden administration
01:28was urging Israel to avoid nuclear and oil facilities. It appears to have done that.
01:33Give us your thoughts on the amount of influence Washington had here.
01:38I think we can see that there is influence, but also Israeli calculation, it's the minute
01:45that Israel attacks nuclear, directly nuclear facilities, or oil and gas installation, or
01:51attacking the Iranian leadership and trying to eliminate some of the Iranian leadership,
01:58it's bound to end in a full scale war. By attacking military bases in response to what
02:06Iran did a few weeks ago, it enables Israel, A, because it attacked also air defense system,
02:15to send the message to Iran, now we reduced, we degraded your air defense system. If this
02:20escalates, we can continue. We degrade also your ability to manufacture missiles. So it
02:28puts Israel in the driving seat. But at the same time, without upsetting Iran to a degree
02:34or push it to a corner, but also 10 days before an American election to push prices of oil
02:41and gas probably to skyrocket levels, it would not be a very smart move.
02:47It sounds like all parties are being quite cautious here. People in Israel have been
02:53hailing the attack, but the Israeli opposition leader, Yair Lapid, said that Israel should
02:58have done more and that they should have conducted strikes on a wider range of targets in Iran.
03:03How likely do you think people, perhaps in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp,
03:08are to share this opinion, especially with the hardliners?
03:14I think, I must admit, I was a bit surprised to hear it from the head of the opposition.
03:18He's supposed to represent something more moderate. And while the right wing within
03:23the government definitely will push to a much harder response in Iran, and maybe if continuing
03:29this attack. Always we need to ask ourselves, when there are military operations, to what
03:36political ends? If there is no political end to that, then it's pointless to do it.
03:41It will just drag the region to more and more violence, and the conversation in the region
03:47is violent to begin with. Israel eliminated most of the leadership of Hamas, eliminated
03:53almost all, wiped out the leadership of Hezbollah, showed its capability in Iran.
03:58Now it needs to ask itself how it can end this war, that it won't become a never-ending war,
04:04and ensuring that the reconstruction of Gaza, ensuring security there,
04:09implementing Resolution 1701, maybe 1559 in Lebanon, and de-escalate with Iran.
04:16Otherwise, we enter probably two months, maybe years of war, and this won't serve Israel's
04:21interest as well. Yossi Merkelberg, Associate Fellow at the MENA program at Chatham House.
04:28Thank you so much for joining us on the program and giving us your thoughts. I really appreciate it.