Dale and Westminster correspondent Alexander Brown look ahead to what the budget could mean for Scotland
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Scotsman's Daily Video Bulletin for this Tuesday.
00:05My name's Dale Miller, I'm Deputy Editor of the Scotsman,
00:08and I'm joined by our Westminster correspondent, Alexander Brown.
00:12Hello, Alex. Welcome from London.
00:15Good morning.
00:16We're here to firstly talk about the front page of the paper
00:21and then we'll get on to the UK budget.
00:23The budget is a key part of the front today.
00:27It calls for the Chancellor to fund hospital and school projects.
00:31We know that there are going to be some tax rises included in this budget,
00:36although a lot of debate over whether they're going to hit working people or not.
00:40But the focus here clearly from the SNP is how much money they want
00:46and where they want to funnel that money towards,
00:48so hospital and school projects coming out top.
00:51And we know that the SNP are going to get a raft of demands from other areas,
00:55including the arts, a lot of pressure on the arts industry up here at the moment.
01:01Alex, we need to talk about where we're at with the UK budget.
01:05We're 24 hours out now.
01:07I'm keen to know from you, we know there are going to be tax rises in some form.
01:11Do you think we've got a pretty good idea of what's going to be in the budget now,
01:15or are you expecting some more detail or some more rabbits to come out of the hat tomorrow?
01:20There is always the possibility of more rabbits out of the hat,
01:24and there hasn't necessarily been that the past few years.
01:26But I can tell you that we do have a good idea,
01:29and not least because Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has been attacking the Labour Party
01:33for making announcements to newspapers and making announcements to broadcasters
01:37rather than making them in the House where convention meetings are supposed to.
01:41And this is something that the Labour Party used to criticise conservatives over repeatedly.
01:46And now they're doing the same thing.
01:48Their defence is such that they're saying, well, if we don't brief it now,
01:52we could scare the markets with pitch laying so we can gather things across.
01:57What's going to be in there?
01:58Well, we know there's probably going to be a rise on national insurance for employers.
02:03And I think it's really important to note that this isn't just this isn't for workers,
02:07and it is not actually going to raise as much, from my understanding,
02:11as the tax cuts dished out by the conservatives on national insurance to the public.
02:17So actually, this is an attempt to undo some of the cuts by the conservatives offered out,
02:23when actually you might say that maybe if they just undone those in the first place,
02:27things would be a little bit easier.
02:29We know there's going to be a cap on bus tickets.
02:32It's going to go from two to three.
02:33It was supposed to be ending, but now that's been extended to three pounds.
02:37Obviously, opposition parties aren't happy that's raised.
02:39It won't be the same in Scotland, but there might be implications in Scotland.
02:42They might follow suit.
02:44We know there's going to be an investment in affordable housing.
02:47But broadly, the government's going to try and make spending cuts and tax rises to the tune of $40 billion.
02:53So it's going to be pretty grim.
02:56So, Alex, on the back of that, should the Scottish government and the SNP expect to get more money or not?
03:03If we're talking about tax rises, is this going to deliver more inconsequentials,
03:07and then the Scottish government has to actually work out where to spend that money?
03:13I don't think so. I think if the spending is turned off and the taxes go up,
03:19it might just be the case they offset each other rather than necessarily,
03:23oh, well, we're going to take in more and we're going to spend less.
03:26That's probably what's going to happen.
03:29But I think it's worth noting in my conversations with Labour MPs,
03:33they've said that actually they think that probably spending will be OK.
03:37They don't think that the cuts, the drastic cuts to spending that many are predicting are going to be there.
03:43And actually, I've heard some pretty some disappointment that there won't be the significant rises in tax in other areas.
03:50I'm one reference capital gains that they'd maybe hoped for.
03:53So, you know, I don't think wherever in a situation where we'll say the Scottish government's going to be happy with what happens or they're definitely going to have more money because we just we just don't know the detail.
04:02We only know the intent. But we do know that affordable housing,
04:05which is one of the key issues, Shona Robinson at the weekend said housing was a key issue.
04:10If the if the UK government is working on affordable housing in England,
04:13then we might see some more consequentials in Scotland for that.
04:16I'm interested in the messaging, which you spoke about a little bit, you know,
04:20the leaks to papers effectively about what might be in the budget.
04:23I did note one on five new free ports.
04:26Initially, there was going to be new funding on five new free ports and then actually just direction for the free ports.
04:32It was cited as a comms error.
04:34We've also had some speeches from both Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves trail ahead of the budget,
04:41talking about that this would be a tough budget, but effectively the future is optimistic.
04:47Have they got the comms right for this? Because it has been a key for maybe how things are received on Wednesday.
04:54I think it's really difficult. I think the great problem is there's a huge difference between the rhetoric you use to win an election and the rhetoric you use when governing.
05:02So they essentially are hoping that they can break people's trust and they can breach manifesto policies not to raise tax and go around it by saying, well,
05:12we said we won't raise tax on working people and national insurance on employers.
05:17You know, people who own small businesses, they undoubtedly would be considered working people,
05:21but they won't be by the government and they will feel a bit put upon and perhaps have an argument.
05:27The government's lied to us. The rhetoric and the levels of trust have not been good and they have been damaging.
05:33And I think what Labour's great gamble is hoping that people recognise the damage done,
05:38the economic scarring left by 14 years of Conservative government and that these tough decisions have to be made.
05:45And it's better to suffer that pain now rather than down the line.
05:49That's not just a political calculation in the short term, that's long term.
05:53Labour is a bit unpopular now by making some tough decisions, but maybe or perhaps it pulls out the rabbit.
05:59There's no two child benefit. We're scrapping that or in a year's time,
06:03vending taps go on and there's more of that investment, more of that infrastructure that even Scotland is crying out for.
06:10Things will be a little bit easier for the Labour Party. So it's, you know, short term pain for a long term plan, framing around it.
06:19I'm just not sure yet that's been accepted by the public or indeed many of Labour's own MPs.
06:24Alex, last question. And I know our Deputy Political Editor, David Bowles,
06:29writing about the outlook from this budget for Scottish Labour and how important that is.
06:34What's your view? How much is this budget going to shape things for, A, Sir Keir Starmer and his government?
06:41How are they going to be viewed for the next couple of years?
06:43And here in Scotland, where the Scottish Labour Party are going to be fighting an election for 2026?
06:50Well, I think one of the great successes of Keir Starmer's premiership so far has been the complete discipline among Scottish Labour MPs.
06:58There has not been that public criticism. Indeed, even from Labour MSPs, there hasn't been that public fighting.
07:05There might be disagreements over winter fuel and two child benefit cap, but there has been party unity.
07:10And while it has hurt Labour in the polls, undeniably, I think they had a lead over the SNP that has now dropped to level or just about.
07:18I don't think this budget is necessarily going to define what happens in 2026.
07:22I think it's worth remembering that the SNP have been in power for years and the warnings that they were making about Labour making cuts or
07:30increasing taxes and all their criticism that they're doing now is basically what they said during the general election.
07:37And also the Scottish government in its own budget is also going to be making cuts.
07:41It is having to work with Labour and work with the Tories and work with us and work with the Scottish Greens to deliver its own budget because it is a minority.
07:49So whatever it tries to say, it will still essentially be working with the other parties and having their sign off on delivery.
07:56So I don't think this is going to be a great gift for the SNP.
08:00And I don't think it makes Scottish budget any easier. I think both parties will struggle from this.
08:06And I don't think it's a huge boost for Stephen Flynn.
08:10I always say, Alex, that you get your unpopular work out of the way very early in your first term of government.
08:15We could see that over the next 24, 48 hours. Alex, thanks for joining us.
08:21You can read all the latest in the build up to the budget at scottsman.com.
08:25If you want to find out budget specific stories, go to the politics tab of the navigation bar.
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08:38Thanks for joining us.