As the 2024 U.S. election heats up, battleground states like Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are expected to play decisive roles in the outcome. With close margins, shifts in key demographics, and critical issues like the administration's handling of foreign policy and disaster response, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has reached a razor-thin edge. Pollsters call it a "margin-of-error" contest, with both candidates racing against time and public sentiment in swing states to secure victory. Will America see a breakthrough, or will it be down to the wire on election night?
#Election2024 #HarrisVsTrump #SwingStateBattle #BattlegroundStates #MichiganVotes #NorthCarolina2024 #PAForPresident #VoteAmerica #ElectionCountdown #KeyStateShowdown #Polls2024 #DecisionDay #RaceToTheWhiteHouse #NeckAndNeckRace #ElectionEdge
~PR.152~HT.178~ED.194~GR.125~
#Election2024 #HarrisVsTrump #SwingStateBattle #BattlegroundStates #MichiganVotes #NorthCarolina2024 #PAForPresident #VoteAmerica #ElectionCountdown #KeyStateShowdown #Polls2024 #DecisionDay #RaceToTheWhiteHouse #NeckAndNeckRace #ElectionEdge
~PR.152~HT.178~ED.194~GR.125~
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, I'm Prerna Shandilya and I've been joined by journalist Arjun Singh to talk all
00:09about the upcoming elections and the politics around it.
00:12Welcome, Arjun.
00:13Hello, Prerna.
00:14Thank you for having me.
00:15Now, Arjun, you have been on ground throughout this election season, you've covered most
00:20of the campaign rallies of both the candidates.
00:23What is the ground balls at this point?
00:27Right now, I'd say that Donald Trump is definitely winning the election on the ground as well
00:32as in the polls.
00:33If you look at the polls, he is ahead across most swing state polls on average by a small
00:38margin, but still he's ahead.
00:40And these are polls historically that have always overestimated the Democratic vote in
00:45both 2016 and 2020.
00:47When you look at the results, the polling results before the election and the final
00:51results of the election, there was a huge discrepancy in favor of Democrats.
00:55So to see Donald Trump ahead in those polls this time around suggests that he not only
01:01has a slim lead, but perhaps his lead on the ground, given that overestimation that naturally
01:06occurs is much greater.
01:08And as for what voters are telling me, I've been all across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,
01:13the swing state with the largest number of electoral college votes.
01:16It has 19 votes more than any other electoral, more than any other electoral college number
01:22for any state.
01:23And I've been talking to voters there about the issues that they're concerned about, what
01:27things are on their minds as they go to the polls, what they want to see from candidates.
01:31And I would say that the issues that voters are concerned about are much better for the
01:37Trump campaign than the Harris campaign.
01:39Because if you look at both campaigns, the Trump campaign's really been focusing a lot
01:43on the economy, on border security, and also on national security, foreign policy, specifically
01:50the wars in Ukraine and Israel.
01:52Whereas the Harris campaign has been focusing more on the protection of democracy, suggesting
01:57that Donald Trump is a threat to it, and on abortion.
02:01When I talk to voters in swing states in North Carolina, in Pennsylvania, in Wisconsin, most
02:06of them tell me that the concerns on their minds are the economy, on inflation, on taxation,
02:13and on border security.
02:15Only a small subset of people actually mention that abortion is the top priority for them.
02:20And even if they say that they're pro-choice, there are many pro-choice, pro-abortion voters
02:25who are voting for Donald Trump because they just think that the economy is more important
02:30of an issue, and border security is more important of an issue.
02:33And that leads me to believe that the environment in the swing states much more favors Donald
02:39Trump than it does Kamala Harris, which is why I think he's ahead right now across all
02:43metrics.
02:44Right.
02:45So now talking about the swing states, I really want to break this down statewide to understand
02:50the situation better.
02:51Now, talking about Michigan, which has a large Arab-American population, and a lot of them,
02:56they're not happy with the Biden administration's handling of the Israel-Gaza war.
03:01Now, Harris is very much part of the administration, although she's not Biden.
03:05Do you think this population is going to support Harris at this point, or Democrats?
03:10The answer to that question is no.
03:13We are seeing a huge change in Michigan.
03:15This is really the pivot in the state of Michigan, the question of Gaza, the question
03:20of support for Israel's war in Gaza.
03:23And it has caused a very large number of Muslim-American, Arab-American voters to defect away from Kamala
03:29Harris.
03:30One of the most bizarre events of the 2024 campaign, I think, happened very recently
03:36in a town called Hamtramck, Michigan, which is the only town in the municipality in America
03:42where the Muslim population is greater than 50%.
03:45It is a majority Muslim town, and it's led by a Democratic mayor, Amer Ghalib.
03:51This man, Amer Ghalib, recently endorsed Donald Trump for president of the United States.
03:57Just think of that, a Democratic Muslim mayor in the largest Muslim city in America endorsing
04:03Donald Trump, the Republican candidate who sent various things about Muslims in the past
04:08for president in the 2024 election.
04:11That's bizarre.
04:12The only reason that's happening is because of the war in Gaza.
04:16Muslim-American and Arab-American voters think that the Biden administration and the Democratic
04:20Party in general has betrayed them during this war in Gaza that started last year.
04:27Because they look at the United States' support for Israel, they look at the military aid
04:31that's being provided to Israel to prosecute this war, and they see the number of civilian
04:36casualties, and they think that the Democratic Party is not listening to their concerns.
04:40They think that the Democratic Party supports the pro-Israeli position over the pro-Palestinian
04:45position, which is what they hold.
04:47And as a result, they're either not voting in the first place, they're going to sit this
04:51election out, or some of them are now voting for Donald Trump because they feel as though
04:55their vote is being taken for granted.
04:57And they want to show the Democratic Party that they are essential.
05:01Their support is essential to them to win Michigan so that in future elections, they're
05:05never discounted again.
05:07There's a huge protest vote that's happening in Michigan right now among Muslim and Arab-Americans.
05:12And I think that's going to be the decisive question in terms of how the election occurs
05:17in Michigan.
05:18And if Donald Trump does end up winning the state, and he's ahead in the polls right now
05:23over there, it will be solely because of this reason.
05:26Not solely actually, there are auto workers there as well, and electric vehicle mandates
05:30are relevant, but primarily because of this reason.
05:33Right.
05:34So you're saying Israel-Gaza war is that one issue that has hurt, you know, Harris campaign
05:39or Democrats in general a lot for other reasons, right?
05:43I wouldn't say it's necessarily greater than all the other reasons.
05:47I mean, there are four years of Joe Biden's presidency and his records and his other achievements
05:54or failures to work on.
05:57That's what the campaign is really focused on trying to avoid.
06:00They're trying to distance themselves from Joe Biden right now, whereas Donald Trump's
06:04campaign is essentially presenting a contrast.
06:06Are you better off now than you were four years ago, comparing his four years to Biden's
06:12four years.
06:13That's the contrast that he's presenting.
06:15So there's a lot of policy to unpack from there.
06:18The situation in Israel is just one of them, but it is a very significant one because it's
06:23really fracturing the Democratic coalition, which is made up to a significant degree of
06:28young people as well as minority voters, Muslims being one of them, Arabs being another
06:34one of them, and college age students being a third group.
06:38These are groups where the Democratic turnout, where support for the Democratic Party has
06:43been severely hit by the Biden administration support for Israel, a US ally, during the
06:48war in Gaza.
06:49You have students on college campuses who are interrupting Kamala Harris and her running
06:54mate, Tim Walz, at rallies, they're obviously not going to vote for them based on what's
06:58going on.
06:59You have Muslim Americans, like I said, Amer Ghalib's endorsement of Donald Trump.
07:04You have Muslims across the country now voting for Trump or not sitting this one out.
07:09And in an election where the margins of victory are so slim, just like it was in 2016 and
07:152020, where the margins of victory are so slim in these battleground states, every vote
07:20counts.
07:21So if you have a sizable number of people who are part of your coalition, traditionally,
07:26but are saying they won't vote for you now, that's a big problem.
07:29So I do think it's a very significant issue.
07:31Right.
07:32Now talking about North Carolina and with the aftermath of Hurricane Haleed and all
07:37the confusions and misinformation that followed it, where do you think these two candidates
07:42stand in terms of their popularity in North Carolina?
07:45I'd say that the situation after Hurricane Haleed has been, it's been a tragedy, of
07:51course.
07:52And there's been a proactive response from the Biden administration, as well as both
07:55campaigns to really capitalize on the political situation there.
07:59But I don't think it's going to really affect the outcome of the election over there.
08:03Donald Trump is ahead by a small margin.
08:06And I think most observers will look at North Carolina over the last two elections, 2016,
08:112020, and see that there is a significant Republican turnout that can be generated,
08:16which is why personally, I think it's very likely that Donald Trump will win the state,
08:21not because of Hurricane Haleed.
08:22Even if that had not happened, he would still be on track to win the state right now.
08:27And that's because, and I was in Asheville, North Carolina, I spoke to people who were
08:32affected by the tragedy in Western North Carolina.
08:35And they told me that based on what happened in North Carolina, the flooding, the hurricane,
08:42the destruction, the death, it's still not going to affect the way they vote because
08:45there are just other elections that are going, there are other issues in the election that
08:50are overwhelming that decision.
08:52Now, as for, you know, the conduct of the election, it may not be possible for many
08:57of these people to vote, unfortunately, because they have so many other things going on in
09:01their lives right now.
09:02But all that's to say is, I don't think the hurricane is going to really change the ground
09:07game in North Carolina all that much.
09:10Right.
09:11Now, talking about Pennsylvania, you mentioned this earlier a little bit, that this is that
09:14one state where both the candidates have spent most amount of their time and resources.
09:21What do you think?
09:22Do you think, like last week, we saw Donald Trump, you know, at McDonald's working, giving
09:26out fries.
09:27Do you think that worked its magic?
09:29And also talking about the population of Latino and Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, where do
09:34you think these two candidates stand now?
09:37Well, when you ask me about where they stand now, we're speaking after Donald Trump's rally
09:43at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, where there was a speaker who made disparaging remarks
09:49about Puerto Ricans, allegedly as a joke, but it's caused a lot of problems with the
09:54community and they're very angry about it.
09:56I'm not sure that one remark is necessarily going to change anyone's intentions on how
10:02they chose to vote less than just over a week before Election Day.
10:07It's October 28th when we're speaking.
10:10Election Day is on November 5th.
10:11So the Tuesday after next Tuesday, I think at this point, most people in the community
10:16have made up their minds and that this is just one controversial remark which will enter
10:22the news cycle and be quickly forgotten, like so many other controversial things and moments
10:27in American politics over the last several months and frankly, years.
10:32It's just something that we're numb to right now.
10:35But as for Pennsylvania and as for Donald Trump's photo opportunity at McDonald's recently
10:41where he went and made fries and served people at the drive-thru counter, I think that's
10:47a good photo op.
10:48I think that's the general consensus among the American political class and observers
10:53that it showed him as being a real person, someone who's in touch with these populist
10:59and everyday facets of life.
11:01People don't necessarily listen to politics, but they definitely, if they live in the suburbs,
11:05for instance, have the experience of going to a drive-thru, getting food, and essentially
11:11sort of having fast food, that whole experience.
11:13And the fact that Trump was able to insert himself into that and show that he's capable
11:18of doing something like that really makes him very relatable.
11:21It's not something that the Harris campaign has done, and I don't think they can do it
11:24now because if they essentially try to recreate what Donald Trump has done so as to match
11:29up to him, it'll look like they're playing catch-up, which is not going to happen.
11:34But as for Pennsylvania as a whole, I would say that the fact that both campaigns are
11:38really investing a lot of resources over there to generate turnout and convince more supporters.
11:45One thing that must be remembered about Pennsylvania, like many of the other swing states, is that
11:51the turnout in the cities of Pennsylvania, specifically Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on
11:57the West and the East, respectively, is very, very powerful for Democrats.
12:02Traditionally, if Democrats are able to generate enough turnout in those two cities and their
12:07suburbs in Allegheny County, in Chester County, Bucks County, Montgomery County, the suburban
12:13counties of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, they're able to win the state.
12:18To quote the American political strategist James Carville, who masterminded Bill Clinton's
12:24successful campaign in 1992, Pennsylvania is essentially Pittsburgh on one end, Philadelphia
12:30on the other, and Alabama in the middle.
12:32It's a very progressive state with very progressive wings and a very conservative heartland.
12:39Trump is looking for that conservative heartland.
12:41He's trying to get them to turn out as much as possible.
12:44But if Harris is able to turn out the people in those two areas, I think it'll be a very,
12:49very close victory for her if she can do that.
12:52Right.
12:53So, Arjun, what do you think of these other states like Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona?
12:59Is there any indication which candidate is ahead in these states?
13:03There are clear indications.
13:05And in the southern states and western states, specifically Georgia and Arizona, I'd say
13:09that Donald Trump is ahead in those states without question, and he is on track to win
13:13those states right now.
13:15This could change before Election Day.
13:17There's still eight days to go.
13:20The fact that the crisis at the border has been such a strong focus of Donald Trump's
13:25campaign this time around, illegal immigration, illegal border crossings, the resultant effects
13:30from that.
13:31In a border state like Arizona, that is extremely powerful.
13:34You have many, many people having crossed the US border with Mexico illegally into Arizona.
13:41The Tucson sector of the border specifically has received a huge number of illegal migrants,
13:46and that's had resultant effects on the communities over there, which has the effect of pushing
13:51the state more towards Donald Trump because he's talking about closing the border, deporting
13:55all of those illegal immigrants, etc.
13:58In Georgia, it's a similar situation, but because it's not a border state, Trump's message
14:02on the economy is particularly strong over there.
14:05I visited Georgia a couple of times during the election, and I spoke with voters and
14:09they suggested that inflation being a big problem and the state of employment being
14:16a significant problem, and Trump's promises on taxation, that really affects people who
14:21are living in suburban Atlanta, metro Atlanta, which is really where the election in Georgia
14:27will be won or lost.
14:28In 2020, Joe Biden was able to generate enough turnout and in fact flip a lot of Republican
14:33voters in the suburbs of Atlanta who traditionally always vote Republican, which is why it used
14:39to be a very clearly red state, but were somewhat dismayed by Trump, his performance, his character.
14:45You now see those voters actually moving back towards Trump because they look at the
14:49policy record of the Biden administration and they're dissatisfied with it, which is
14:53why they're now moving back towards traditionally voting for Republicans.
14:57So it's pretty clear that Donald Trump is ahead in Georgia right now, and the polls
15:00I think suggest that too.
15:02As for Nevada, that's a more interesting state because it wasn't always a swing state.
15:08In 2020, it started to become more competitive, and that's because of the whole service sector
15:15that's in Nevada.
15:16Las Vegas is a huge entertainment resort, tourism destination, there are lots of service
15:21workers who work in the fast food industry, in catering, in personal services, etc.
15:27And those workers have been particularly hurt by economic conditions right now, low wages,
15:32low productivity, etc.
15:35And when Donald Trump talks about removing taxes on tips, removing taxes on several other
15:44things, that's a very powerful message to those service industry workers in Nevada.
15:48And he has also been quite proactive about reaching out to unions this time around organized
15:54labor, which perhaps some say is a lot more conservative than professional labor that
16:00exists and lives in the big cities.
16:02That's really where the dynamics in Nevada are working out, which is one side of the
16:07story.
16:08The other side of the story are social issues in Nevada, and we're seeing somewhat of a
16:12shift on the ground there in terms of what people think about these various social issues
16:17like transgender ideology, like the crisis at the border, for instance.
16:22When it comes to Nevada in particular, the University of Nevada at Reno's women's volleyball
16:28team is actually making a significant contribution to the election in that their refusal to play
16:33against a team with a biological man from San Jose State University has really made
16:42transgender ideology and men and women's sports, as the Republicans put it, a big flashpoint
16:48in the election in Nevada.
16:49And you have Republican candidates now capitalizing on that.
16:53As well, Nevada is not on the border, but it's close to the border.
16:56And so the border crisis affects them too.
16:58So I'd say that the dynamics in Nevada are quite heterogeneous right now.
17:03But unlike previous years, Trump is a way more competitive in Nevada than he was ever
17:08before.
17:09Right.
17:10Now, talking about populations and all these states, you have spent a lot of time in India.
17:17And do you think, have you ever spoken to Indian guys for a while while you were covering
17:22the campaigns?
17:23Where do they stand in terms of their support for either of the candidates?
17:28Absolutely.
17:29I have spoken with lots of either Indians who immigrated to the United States and are
17:34now naturalized U.S. citizens, as well as their children, Americans who are of Indian
17:40origin.
17:41I've asked them how their identity as Indians interacts with their decision on whom to vote.
17:46And I've gotten some very interesting responses.
17:48There hasn't really been a clear trend.
17:51But what's interesting is that the election, just like many other demographics in America,
17:56has really divided the Indian-American community because you have, on one hand, a lot of people
18:01who support Kamala Harris.
18:03They want to see the first Indian-American become the president of the United States
18:07of America.
18:08That symbolically is very attractive to them.
18:12But on the other hand, you have lots of Indian-Americans who are not happy with Kamala Harris, not
18:18happy with Joe Biden.
18:19And as a result, they're voting for Donald Trump.
18:22So apparently, this whole notion of identitarian visibility, of seeing an Indian-American president
18:27just isn't that persuasive for them.
18:29And they're more concerned about policy issues.
18:32For instance, recently on Saturday, I was in State College, Pennsylvania for one of
18:37Donald Trump's campaign rallies over there.
18:40I was there to cover the election, to talk to voters, etc.
18:44And I spoke with a lady named Shivani Kohl.
18:46She is a 22-year-old Indian-American, U.S.-born person from Colorado, going to school in Pennsylvania.
18:54And she told me that while she is a young Indian-American woman, while she is very much
18:59pro-abortion, she's leaning towards voting for Donald Trump.
19:02Why?
19:03Because of the economy, because of inflation, because of housing.
19:07She wants to own a home later on, and housing prices have gone up.
19:11You see these fissures, that's just an interesting interpolation into the dynamics among Indian-American voters.
19:19I think, on the whole, when one looks at exit poll statistics after the election, we'll
19:24see that by and large, Indian-Americans have still voted for the Democratic candidate in
19:30preponderance, over 50 percent of them.
19:33But you may see a significant shift towards the Republican Party, because they're not
19:37just voting on the basis of their identity anymore.
19:40And frankly, even on the basis of their identity, the Republican Party has really changed the
19:45way it looks and speaks to different communities in recent years.
19:49And that's capturing some of their support as well.
19:51And it's not as if there weren't Indian-Americans in Republican and conservative politics before.
19:57They always were.
19:58I mean, Bobby Jindal, for instance, was the governor of Louisiana back in the early 2000s.
20:03Nikki Haley was elected governor of South Carolina back in 2011.
20:08So they were always present.
20:10But now we're seeing them being more visible, I think, because there's been a lot more attention
20:15that's being directed to identity politics, for instance.
20:19Over the last decade or so in American politics, identity and racial identity has become a
20:24real locus of where you stand politically and what your views ought to be.
20:29And so people are not talking in those terms more.
20:31And as a result, those who are active in politics, their identities are a lot more visible, which
20:36is why you see more Indian-Americans who are Republicans.
20:41They always were Republicans.
20:42But that aside, one cannot deny the fact that seeing prominent Indian-Americans in the Republican
20:49Party has definitely opened up a lot of questions and questioning by Indian-Americans of where
20:55they should stand politically.
20:56You now have a lot of groups, organizations that are being formed by Indian-Americans
21:02and Hindu-Americans and Sikh-Americans to support different candidates.
21:06For instance, there's a group called the Republican Hindu Coalition, which has been very active
21:11in fundraising for Trump's campaigns, supporting Republican candidates across the country.
21:16You have a group called Sikhs for Trump in New Jersey, where there's a huge Sikh population
21:20that's now supporting Donald Trump.
21:22So this is perhaps prompting more political activity from people whose views were pretty
21:28constant beforehand.
21:30But the fact that they are more active and they're more visible means that Indian-Americans
21:33are playing a greater role in politics on both sides of the aisle.
21:37And that's a new and interesting development.
21:38Right.
21:39Now, Arjun, only last week, pollster Nate Silver came out and said that this is a 50-50
21:45competition and both the candidates have equal amount of chances in terms of winning this
21:50election.
21:51Although he said that his gut says that Donald Trump is ahead of Harris, but then he also
21:55said that not to believe his gut.
21:57So do you think this is a margin of error contest?
22:02Well, I think that's pretty clear from what the polls suggest right now.
22:07If Donald Trump's lead in certain states is within the margin of error or Kamala Harris's
22:12lead is within the margin of error, that absolutely makes it a margin of error contest, which
22:17is why in these battleground states, you see both candidates spending all of their time
22:22over there.
22:23And nowadays, they're not even talking about the issues as much.
22:28They are still talking about the issues, obviously, but not to the same degree as they did before.
22:32Now, the campaign is shifting into its final stage where during their rallies, both of
22:36them are talking about one issue above all else, and that is getting out the vote.
22:41GOTV, get out the vote efforts are critical to both candidates right now.
22:46They want to bring as many of their supporters to the polls.
22:51So they are speaking in those terms to voters.
22:54They are telling them during their rallies, here are the instructions, here are the dates,
22:58both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
23:00They're not, I mean, at that level, when you're in American politics, you don't really focus
23:04on these minutiae details as much, but they are spelling out those details for voters
23:10in their speeches, telling them where to go, when to do it, what time, what date.
23:15They are trying to drill into voters' heads that you must get to the polls.
23:19You must vote early if you can, but you must, if you're not going to vote early at the very
23:24least, make a plan to vote so that on election day, you can go, they get them to the polls,
23:30they cast their ballot.
23:32It's all about turnout in these states.
23:34And as a result, that's what's going to sort of determine who wins these critical states
23:40where the polling suggests they're in the margin of error.
23:42The polls only capture a snapshot of the electorate of people who are not only likely to vote,
23:48but also have enough time to respond to these polls in the first place.
23:52That somewhat is a sort of microcosm of the larger section of people who actually will
23:59vote and it's not sure where exactly they will stand, which is why turnout is so crucial.
24:04So that's really where this election is going right now.
24:07Right.
24:08So, surely it looks like neck and neck competition between both the candidates.
24:12We'll have to wait and watch.
24:13Thank you so much, Arjun, for joining me.
24:15Thank you, Prerna.
24:16Don't miss out.
24:17Log on to OneIndia.com for more updates.